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Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects Climate Change Predictions for MENA • • • • • • • • Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050) Reduced or steady (low) precipitation Increased incidence of drought, heat waves Reduced surface water; increased stress on already depleted groundwater reserves Sea level rise of .5 meter by 2100 Reduction in agricultural output Relatively low carbon emissions--focus on adaptation Challenge for hydroelectric generation and irrigation In an already arid region, climate change will QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. • reduce agricultural productivity through desertification and drought, increased soil salinity, inability to irrigate • increase stress on urban populations and their access to safe water, • inundate many coastal areas, forcing population relocation and further reducing agricultural output Water is: Geography: climate change Middle Eastern aridity localized adaptation Water is: Science: new desalinization techniques Adaptation of new plants tolerant of higher salinity traditional water gathering/storing/transporting Newly discovered aquifers in the desert, etc. New health challenges and disease vectors Water is: Economics: •Agriculture •Hydroelectric projects •Fisheries •Transportation •Urbanization •Tourism •Restrictions on development Water is: Politics •legitimacy for govts (GAP, Libya pipeline, agriculture in Israel, Jordan river/Golan) •Food shortages/riots •Inequities in water use/access •disputes over river flows and water sovereignty (Tigris/Euphrates, bargaining chip in other issues) •Exacerbation of conflict between neighbors (Israel/Palestine, Israel/Jordan, Turkey/Iraq) •international challenge: how do we solve regional issues with global implications? Water is: Society: •food riots in Egypt, •urban centers with too little water, •health problems from contaminated water due to reduced river flows, •new environmentalist civil society vs. new aspirations Water is: Culture: •marsh Arabs, •Bedouin, •urbanization, •changing sustenance farming and fishing villages •disruption of traditional water-sharing mechanisms Four case studies: Egypt Turkey Iraq Israel-Palestine Egypt Egypt’s impact on global emissions Sea Level Rise Effects on Egypt Turkey Istanbul skyline Southeast Anatolian Project Iraq Tigris-Euphrates Flow Measuring Salinity of Soil Israel-Palestine Jordan River Unequal water access