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Climate Change in the Middle East:
Complex Causes and Effects
Climate Change Predictions for MENA
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Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050)
Reduced or steady (low) precipitation
Increased incidence of drought, heat waves
Reduced surface water; increased stress on already
depleted groundwater reserves
Sea level rise of .5 meter by 2100
Reduction in agricultural output
Relatively low carbon emissions--focus on
adaptation
Challenge for hydroelectric generation and
irrigation
In an already arid region, climate change will
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• reduce agricultural
productivity through
desertification and
drought, increased soil
salinity, inability to
irrigate
• increase stress on urban
populations and their
access to safe water,
• inundate many coastal
areas, forcing population
relocation and further
reducing agricultural
output
Water is:
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Geography:
climate change
Middle Eastern aridity
localized adaptation
Water is:
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Science:
new desalinization techniques
Adaptation of new plants tolerant of higher salinity
traditional water gathering/storing/transporting
Newly discovered aquifers in the desert, etc.
New health challenges and disease vectors
Water is:
Economics:
•Agriculture
•Hydroelectric projects
•Fisheries
•Transportation
•Urbanization
•Tourism
•Restrictions on development
Water is:
Politics
•legitimacy for govts (GAP, Libya pipeline, agriculture
in Israel, Jordan river/Golan)
•Food shortages/riots
•Inequities in water use/access
•disputes over river flows and water sovereignty
(Tigris/Euphrates, bargaining chip in other issues)
•Exacerbation of conflict between neighbors
(Israel/Palestine, Israel/Jordan, Turkey/Iraq)
•international challenge:
how do we solve regional issues with global implications?
Water is:
Society:
•food riots in Egypt,
•urban centers with too little water,
•health problems from contaminated water
due to reduced river flows,
•new environmentalist civil society vs. new aspirations
Water is:
Culture:
•marsh Arabs,
•Bedouin,
•urbanization,
•changing sustenance farming and fishing villages
•disruption of traditional water-sharing mechanisms
Four case studies:
Egypt
Turkey
Iraq
Israel-Palestine
Egypt
Egypt’s impact on global emissions
Sea Level Rise Effects on Egypt
Turkey
Istanbul skyline
Southeast Anatolian Project
Iraq
Tigris-Euphrates Flow
Measuring Salinity of Soil
Israel-Palestine
Jordan River
Unequal
water
access