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Planets The Next Dante Minniti, Católica Decade Steve Vogt, UC Santa Cruz Chris Tinney, UNSW Pamela Arriagada, Católica The discovery of extrasolar planets in the past decade was one of the most remarkable achievements of the century, and the culmination of centuries of speculation. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Review of Astrophysics ~45,000 parsecs 10,000 parsecs 1000 parsecs 50 parsecs 16 Cygni B Not sinusoidal Planet Mass Distribution Detection Limit: ~ 0.2 MJUP @ 1 AU Five Neptunes: Gl 436 55 Cnc d m Ara • HD 190360 • Gliese 581 Butler et al. McArthur et al. Santos et al. Fit Excludes 1st bin. Planet – Metallicity Correlation 2 Pplanet ~ (NFe/ NH) Fischer & Valenti 2005 Previous Evidence: G.Gonzales, N.Santos Abundance Analysis of 1000 stars on planet search . Metallicity Models: Ida & Lin Kacper Kornet et al. Doppler Measurements Orbit: P = 2.876 d K = 41.3 m/s Circular M = 0.343 MJUP = 1.15 MSAT Photometry: Three Transits 3.0 millimag -> APL = 0.0028 Astar RPL = 0.053 RStar G. Henry Density & Interior R = 0.88 RSAT M = 1.145 MSAT 10% errors) r = 1.69 rSAT R ~ M-1/3 (degeneracy) R ~ M+1/3 (Coulomb, rock) r = 1.69 rSat More Rock Radius vs Mass Radius (RJUP) Measured for Transiting Planets Mass (MJUP) The Next Decade: 3 m/s versus 1 m/s 3 m/s Minimal (3-sigma) detection of Jupiter analog Eccentricity of Jupiter analog is uncertain (+/-0.2) Non-detection of Saturn-mass at 5 AU 1 m/s Jupiter analog is 10-sigma detection Uncertainty of eccentricity is +/-0.02 Saturn-mass at 5 AU is a 4-sigma detection Super-Earths detectable in 4-day orbits Detection sensitivity similar/better than SIM Obstacles to 1 m/s Stellar oscillations Stellar granulation Stellar rotation Photons Systematic Errors P-modes in Solar-type stars Alpha Cen A (G2 V) Amp ~ 1.5 m/s Per = 5 min - Seismology -Noise: Avg over P-modes ! K dwarfs: 1 meter/sec Alpha Cen B (K0V) Acoustic p-modes: Amp < 1 m/s Doppler Precision 10 Earth-Masses P = 50 day Aliasing 1 day Obs. Single telescope Single telescope 5 Earth-Masses P = 50 day 1 Earth-Mass P = 4.2 d Mstar = 0.5 MO 1 m/s: Long Data Strings AAT 48 continous nights Jan 10, 2007 Keck 10 continous nights APF USNO funded 2.4-m dedicated planet finder 1 m/s: Long View SIM 1.2-to-2 billion $ 150 stars 2020? TPF 5-to-?? billion $ ? Stars 8-m 0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW? 2040? 1 m/s: Long View 8-m 0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW? Every Saturn mass planet out to 9 AU Every Neptune mass planet out to 1 AU Super-Earths out to 0.3 AU Earth-mass planets out to 0.1 AU Solar System analogs Habitable planets