Download Climate change scenarios in Jimma Highlands

CHIESA
PARTICIPATORY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN JIMMA
HIGHLANDS
WP4 conducted an explorative stakeholders’ consultation on climate change scenarios in Jimma,
Taita Hills, on the 18th of June, to develop visions for the future of the local community under the
projected climate changed.
Downscaled climate projections for the area (Platts et al. 2015) foresee increasing temperature and
rainfall, with wetter rain seasons and drier dry seasons.
Community was represented by……
ACTIVITY 1- Looking at the future climate scenarios
Climate change scenarios were derived from the IPCC-AR5 projections in AFRICLIM 2.0 (median
values over 16 GCM-RCM combinations), using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways for the period 20412070 (Platts et al. 2014-2015). We focused on two main impacts:
Current
situation
GROUP
Water Crop types
sources
Forest
products
Others?
What are
the main
resources
supporting
livelihood
today?
1
Rainfall,
ACADEMICS spring,
+1 GOVT.
rivers,
ground
water,
wetland
Maize, sorghum,
faba bean, tef,
cabbage, taro, arial
yam
Honey, lung
pepper, wild
coffee, rassa
karadamon
ginger,
itmber, fuel
wood,
medicinal
plants, wild
edible fruit
Livestock,
apiculture, wildlife
2 FARMERS
(male)
Spring,
river
Maize, teft,
sorghum
Fuelwood,
construction,
farm tools,
NTFP (coffee,
honey, etc)
Livestock rearing
3 WOMEN
River,
spring
Coffee, Teff, maize,
sorghum
Coffee, tree
water,
clean
water,
rainfall
Vegetables and
fruits
(avocado/mango)
Water is
good but
during
summer
there is
shortage
of water
Mgmt. issues
Unusual rainfall,
insect&pest, wild
animals
Deforestation Land conversion
for farmland for cultivation
1
Are
resources
sufficient
for the
population?
Yes
Not adequate with
the current crop
management
system, ongoing
degradation of the
resource base
Not adequate Not adequate
given the current
land productivity
and livestock
husbandry
2
Not
Not sufficient
Not sufficient
Not sufficient
3
Not
sufficient
Not sufficient
Sufficient
Not sufficient
Mgmt.
issues
Then they were asked to discuss how the community livelihood could change under the future
climate scenarios, in terms of resources availability, shift to new resources or new economic
activities, and possible solutions to tackle the new conditions.
In identifying the solutions, stakeholders were asked to include solutions already adopted in the past
if still valuable.
Table 4 a- Description of changes envisaged under future climate scenarios by GROUP 1
Which changes on
main resources
supporting
livelihoods would
you expect?
Which resources
would become
scarcer or more
WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE
increases all over the year and
dry season is dryer
WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL
VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN
SEASON MAY ANTICIPATE/BE
POSTPONED)
Decline in water resources, decline
of crop yields and livestock
productivity, disease outbreak,
reduction in certain disease and
insect pest, degradation of forest
resources
Decreased crop productivity
Scarce:
Crop and livestock
Water resources, most crops (shift
Reduced ground water recharge, and
discharge
Reduced feed availability
Diseases outbreak
available?
in agroecology)
More available:
Productivity of sorghum (dry
tolerant), come fruit trees
Which sectors
would be mostly
affected?
Agriculture, education, health,
forestry and wildlife
Agriculture
Solutions relevant
to each scenario
impact
Adaptation strategies:
Adaptation strategies:
Promote perennial crops
Early maturing crop variety
Drought tolerant varieties of crops
and livestock
Pest resistant crop varieties
Health
Soil and water conservation
C4 and CAM plants
Soil and water conservation
Improving forest conservation
Table 4 a- Description of changes envisaged under future climate scenarios by GROUP 2
WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and
RAINFALL INCREASES, NUMBER
OF DRY MONTHS STAYS
SIMILAR
WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL
VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN
SEASON MAY ANTICIPATE/BE
POSTPONED)
Which changes on
main resources
supporting
livelihoods would
you expect?
Water source reduction
Disturbance of living conditions
Yield reduction
Increase of disease and pest
Which resources
would become
scarcer or more
available?
Water sources
Increase pest & disease
Same
Crop production
Livestock production
Or
Increase pest & disease
Which sectors
would be mostly
affected?
Agriculture
Education
Health
Same
Solutions relevant
to each scenario
impact
Sustainable/integrated natural
resources management
Same
Table 4 a- Description of changes envisaged under future climate scenarios by GROUP 3
Group 3
Which changes on
main resources
supporting
livelihoods would
you expect?
WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and
RAINFALL INCREASES, NUMBER
OF DRY MONTHS STAYS
SIMILAR
WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL
VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN
SEASON MAY ANTICIPATE/BE
POSTPONED)
Reduced production and
productivity: Shortage of water,
land degradation, increase number
of insects and pests
The same
Health problems
Social disturbance
Poverty
Which resources
would become
scarcer or more
available?
Shortage of water, forest, honey;
reduce effectiveness of workers
Scarce:
Water, quality land, forest
More available:
water
Which sectors
would be mostly
affected?
Agriculture
The same
Education
Health
Solutions relevant
to each scenario
impact
To plant trees and increase the
cover of forest
The same
To create awareness
Intensive and sustainable farming
Policy makers and any responsible
organisation pay attention
Based on the previous analysis, stakeholders were then requested to draw on a chart the possible
future scenarios, according to 4 dimensions: Population, Income, Land use and Biodiversity.