Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
CHIESA PARTICIPATORY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN JIMMA HIGHLANDS WP4 conducted an explorative stakeholders’ consultation on climate change scenarios in Jimma, Taita Hills, on the 18th of June, to develop visions for the future of the local community under the projected climate changed. Downscaled climate projections for the area (Platts et al. 2015) foresee increasing temperature and rainfall, with wetter rain seasons and drier dry seasons. Community was represented by…… ACTIVITY 1- Looking at the future climate scenarios Climate change scenarios were derived from the IPCC-AR5 projections in AFRICLIM 2.0 (median values over 16 GCM-RCM combinations), using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways for the period 20412070 (Platts et al. 2014-2015). We focused on two main impacts: Current situation GROUP Water Crop types sources Forest products Others? What are the main resources supporting livelihood today? 1 Rainfall, ACADEMICS spring, +1 GOVT. rivers, ground water, wetland Maize, sorghum, faba bean, tef, cabbage, taro, arial yam Honey, lung pepper, wild coffee, rassa karadamon ginger, itmber, fuel wood, medicinal plants, wild edible fruit Livestock, apiculture, wildlife 2 FARMERS (male) Spring, river Maize, teft, sorghum Fuelwood, construction, farm tools, NTFP (coffee, honey, etc) Livestock rearing 3 WOMEN River, spring Coffee, Teff, maize, sorghum Coffee, tree water, clean water, rainfall Vegetables and fruits (avocado/mango) Water is good but during summer there is shortage of water Mgmt. issues Unusual rainfall, insect&pest, wild animals Deforestation Land conversion for farmland for cultivation 1 Are resources sufficient for the population? Yes Not adequate with the current crop management system, ongoing degradation of the resource base Not adequate Not adequate given the current land productivity and livestock husbandry 2 Not Not sufficient Not sufficient Not sufficient 3 Not sufficient Not sufficient Sufficient Not sufficient Mgmt. issues Then they were asked to discuss how the community livelihood could change under the future climate scenarios, in terms of resources availability, shift to new resources or new economic activities, and possible solutions to tackle the new conditions. In identifying the solutions, stakeholders were asked to include solutions already adopted in the past if still valuable. Table 4 a- Description of changes envisaged under future climate scenarios by GROUP 1 Which changes on main resources supporting livelihoods would you expect? Which resources would become scarcer or more WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE increases all over the year and dry season is dryer WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN SEASON MAY ANTICIPATE/BE POSTPONED) Decline in water resources, decline of crop yields and livestock productivity, disease outbreak, reduction in certain disease and insect pest, degradation of forest resources Decreased crop productivity Scarce: Crop and livestock Water resources, most crops (shift Reduced ground water recharge, and discharge Reduced feed availability Diseases outbreak available? in agroecology) More available: Productivity of sorghum (dry tolerant), come fruit trees Which sectors would be mostly affected? Agriculture, education, health, forestry and wildlife Agriculture Solutions relevant to each scenario impact Adaptation strategies: Adaptation strategies: Promote perennial crops Early maturing crop variety Drought tolerant varieties of crops and livestock Pest resistant crop varieties Health Soil and water conservation C4 and CAM plants Soil and water conservation Improving forest conservation Table 4 a- Description of changes envisaged under future climate scenarios by GROUP 2 WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and RAINFALL INCREASES, NUMBER OF DRY MONTHS STAYS SIMILAR WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN SEASON MAY ANTICIPATE/BE POSTPONED) Which changes on main resources supporting livelihoods would you expect? Water source reduction Disturbance of living conditions Yield reduction Increase of disease and pest Which resources would become scarcer or more available? Water sources Increase pest & disease Same Crop production Livestock production Or Increase pest & disease Which sectors would be mostly affected? Agriculture Education Health Same Solutions relevant to each scenario impact Sustainable/integrated natural resources management Same Table 4 a- Description of changes envisaged under future climate scenarios by GROUP 3 Group 3 Which changes on main resources supporting livelihoods would you expect? WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and RAINFALL INCREASES, NUMBER OF DRY MONTHS STAYS SIMILAR WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN SEASON MAY ANTICIPATE/BE POSTPONED) Reduced production and productivity: Shortage of water, land degradation, increase number of insects and pests The same Health problems Social disturbance Poverty Which resources would become scarcer or more available? Shortage of water, forest, honey; reduce effectiveness of workers Scarce: Water, quality land, forest More available: water Which sectors would be mostly affected? Agriculture The same Education Health Solutions relevant to each scenario impact To plant trees and increase the cover of forest The same To create awareness Intensive and sustainable farming Policy makers and any responsible organisation pay attention Based on the previous analysis, stakeholders were then requested to draw on a chart the possible future scenarios, according to 4 dimensions: Population, Income, Land use and Biodiversity.