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Modeling Species’
Distributions with
Applications to Agriculture
Víctor Sánchez-Cordero
Instituto de Biología, UNAM, México
A. T. Peterson
The University of Kansas, USA
Agroecosystems and Biodiversity
 Systems of interacting species
– Crop organisms
– Pest organisms (rodents, insects, weeds)
– Invasive species
– Pollinators
 Behavior of such systems can be simulated
via detailed understanding of the ecological
requirements of each component of the
system
Case Studies
 Corn ecology, areas of risk for natural
areas from advancing agricultural
frontier, and climate change effects
 Risk assessment of potential for
invasion by a new pest, a vector for
Xylella fastidiosa
 Risk assessment for crop damage by
rodent pests in Veracruz, Mexico
Modeling Corn Ecology in Mexico
 Points where maize is planted without irrigation
are used to create an ecological niche model and
geographic projection of potential distribution
 Inventario Forestal Nacional is used to locate
areas actually (2000) planted in maize and areas
holding natural vegetation
 Comparisons used to assess areas of potential
expansion of the ‘frontera agricola’
 Climate change predictions used to assess how
this scenario will change over next 50 yr
Points Where Maize Planted without Irrigation
Ecological Niche Model Based on Points
Ecological Niche Model Without Points
Independent Data: Distribution of Maize
Actual Distribution (GREEN) Overlaid on
Potential Distribution (BLUE)
Areas Suitable for Maize but Currently with
Natural Vegetation (= Possible Expansion of
Agricultural Frontier)
Protected Areas Vulnerable to Expansion
Protected Areas Most Vulnerable
BAHIA DE LORETO
LA PRIMAVERA
SELVA EL OCOTE
SIERRA DE ALVAREZ
EL CIMATARIO
NAHA
RIA LAGARTOS
LOS PETENES
MONTES AZULES
EL TEPOZTECO
SIERRA DE QUILA
CAÑON DEL SUMIDERO
CUMBRES DE MAJALCA
EL CHICO
EL VELADERO
COMPLEJO LAGUNAR OJO DE LIEBRE
SIAN KA'AN
CHAN-KIN
LOS NOVILLOS
CERRO DE GARNICA
BONAMPAK
CERRO DE LA SILLA
CHAMELA-CUIXMALA
LACAN-TUN
MESETA DE CACAXTLA
ZOQUIAPAN Y ANEXAS
LA SEPULTURA
LA MICHILIA
CALAKMUL
LAGUNAS DE MONTEBELLO
SIERRA DEL ABRA TANCHIPA
LAGUNA DE TERMINOS
LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
ISLAS MARIAS
UAYMIL
EL TRIUNFO
GOGORRON
CORREDOR BIOLOGICO CHICHINAUTZIN
HUATULCO
YUM BALAM
LAGUNAS DE ZEMPOALA
LA ENCRUCIJADA
RIA CELESTUN
LOS TUXTLAS
VOLCAN TACANA
OTOCH MA_AX YETEL KOOH
PANTANOS DE CENTLA
BARRANCA DE METZTITLAN
ARRECIFES DE XCALAK
ANPs completely within the ecological niche of maize
Protected Areas Least Vulnerable
MAPIMI
CASCADA DE BASSASEACHIC
CONSTITUCION DE 1857
MAVAVI
CAÑON DE SANTA ELENA
SIERRA DE SAN PEDRO MARTIR
SIERRA DE AJOS/BAVISPE
MADERAS DEL CARMEN
ISLA TIBURON
EL PINACATE Y GRAN DESIERTO DE ALTAR
ANPs outside of the ecological niche of maize, or mostly outside
Vegetation Types Most Vulnerable
Comunidad
Damage
SELVA BAJA PERENNIFOLIA
100
MATORRAL DE CONIFERAS
100
PALMAR
100
SABANA
100
SELVA BAJA ESPINOSA
100
SELVA BAJA SUBPERENNIFOLIA
100
SELVA ALTA Y MEDIANA SUBPERENNIFOLIA
99.9
SELVA ALTA Y MEDIANA PERENNIFOLIA
99.8
POPAL-TULAR
99.5
SELVA MEDIANA CADUCIFOLIA Y SUBCADUCIFOLIA
99.4
MANGLAR
99.2
MATORRAL ESPINOSO TAMAULIPECO
98.2
MATORRAL CRASICAULE
97.3
MATORRAL SARCOCRASICAULE DE NEBLINA
96.0
BOSQUE MESOFILO DE MONTAÑA
95.7
SELVA BAJA CADUCIFOLIA Y SUBCADUCIFOLIA
94.0
MATORRAL SUBMONTANO
90.9
Maize and Climate Change
Maize and Climate Change:
Difference Maps
DX scenario
then
AX scenario
Red = worsening for maize
Blue = improving for maize
Maize Plantations that Are Becoming
Inviable
Case Studies
 Corn ecology, areas of risk for natural
areas from advancing agricultural
frontier, and climate change effects
 Risk assessment of potential for
invasion by a new pest, a vector for
Xylella fastidiosa
 Risk assessment for crop damage by
rodent pests in Veracruz, Mexico
Glassy-winged Sharpshooter
Homolodisca coagulata
Homalodisca and Xylella
Known Points – Native Distribution
GARP Model Inferred from Points
Projection to California
Test Model Predictions
Risk Assessment in Brazil
Case Studies
 Corn ecology, areas of risk for natural
areas from advancing agricultural
frontier, and climate change effects
 Risk assessment of potential for
invasion by a new pest, a vector for
Xylella fastidiosa
 Risk assessment for crop damage by
rodent pests in Veracruz, Mexico
PREDICTIVE DISTRIBUTION
OF RODENT PEST SPECIES
AGRICULTURAL
CENSUS DATA
ESTIMATED CROP LOSS
IN EACH MUNICIPALITY:
PLANTED MINUS
HARVESTED AREA
IS CROP LOSS RELATED TO THE
PREDICTED DISTRIBUTION OF
RODENT PEST SPECIES?
CROP
RICE
BEANS
SUGARCANE
CORN
OAT
COFFEE
GRASSES
SORGHUM
WHEAT
Total area
(ha)
21,920
57,988
213,221
514,213
1,198
175,027
1’322,985
5,676
1,822
Area lost
(ha)
1,359
9,426
69,670
49,189
239
9,427
5,315
555
378
CROPS
RICE
BEANS
SUGARCANE
CORN
OAT
COFFEE
GRASSES
SORGHUM
WHEAT
NATIVE RODENT PEST
1 SQUIRREL
13 RATS AND MICE
3 POCKET GOPHERS
Stepwise multiple regression analyses
Dependent variable: crop damage in
each crop in the 207 municipalities for
Veracruz.
Independent variable: proportional
predicted coverage of that municipality
by each of the 17 rodent species
CROP
RICE
BEANS
SUGARCANE
CORN
OAT
COFFEE
GRASSES
SORGHUM
WHEAT
r2
0.65,
0.07,
0.04,
0.11,
0.35,
0.04,
0.12,
0.07,
0.22,
P < 0.0001
P < 0.05
P < 0.05
P < 0.05
P < 0.01
P < 0.05
P < 0.001
P < 0.1
NS
CONCLUSION: Areas of crop damage are not distributed at
random with respect to distributional areas of pest rodents …
risk of crop damage can be predicted based on the ecological
potential of the species causing the damage ….
Summary
 Agroecosystem behavior can be predicted
based on the ecological requirements of
component species
 Risk of crop loss, crop inviability, and other
phenomena can be predicted
 Economic importance of biodiversity
informatics … dead animals in museums
can inform human economies!
Muito
Obrigado
[email protected]