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New New Delhi Delhi New Delhi Outline • Background and Brief Introduction • Climate change Impacts in Nepal • Water Sector Strategy and Water Resources Policy of Nepal • Climate Change Adaptation policies • Summary New Delhi Introduction Nepal • Landlocked country with land area of 147000 sq. kms and population of 30 million. • Physiography: Plains, Siwalik, Middle Mountains, High Mountains and High Himalayas • Administrative 75 Districts and 5 Development Regions New Delhi Water Resource Systems • More than 6000 rivers and rivulets • Estimated annual runoff about 200 billion cubic meters – The average annual rainfall over Nepal is about 1700 mm. – Monsoon (June to September) brings about 80% of the annual rainfall in four months. • Surface runoff comprises 45% of average annual flow of Ganges and around 70% of the Ganges' dry season flow. New Delhi Major Weather Systems • Northern limit Of the Tropics. Turkmenistan Afghanistan China Western disturbances Iran Pakistan Nepal • Southern lap of the Summer Monsoon Himalayas Bhutan • Mountainous country Bangladesh India Oman Myanmar Laos • Topographically complex • Affected by monsoon In summer and Cambodiawestern disturbances in winter Thailand 0 0 65 100 130 200 400 Kilometers 260 Kilometers Sri Lanka Malaysia (Source: Baidya, DHM) New Delhi Variability across time and space • About 250 billion cubic meters of waters fall over Nepal annually as precipitation (Climatic and Hydrological Atlas of Nepal, 1996) – About 200 billion cubic meters drains out of Nepal annually. – About 150 billion cubic meters (monsoon season). – About 50 billion cubic meters ( winter -October to May) (February and April/ May are the driest months.) • Rainfall varies from 2500mm – east, about 1470 mm -KTM 1000 mm in the western Nepal (amount of rainfall generally declines from east to west0 New Delhi Climate Change: Nepal • Temperature • Precipitation • Himalayan Glaciers 77 New Delhi Temperature Trend (Baidya, DHM) Annual Mean Temperature Trend y = 0.039x + 19.335 R2 = 0.5973 21.0 Temperature (°C) 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 18.0 1975 18.5 Year • All Nepal Temperature is increasing steadily. • 1.7°C increase between 1975 and 2005 88 New Delhi Temperature variation Inter-annual variation of annual mean temperature 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 -2.0 1975 S tandardiz ed anomaly 1.5 Y ear 9 New Delhi Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day) y = 0.5997x + 61.417 Number of days with rain >= 100 mm 2 R = 0.0984 120 1987, 106 1975 100 1998 60 1982 1977 40 1992, 35 20 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 0 1971 Days 80 Year 10 New Delhi Observed Climate Change Impact (source: DHM) Rainfall • Total rainfall and heavy rainfall events are increasing • Maximum 24 hour rainfall is also increasing Temperature Days and nights are both becoming warmer. Warm spell duration (Long hot days) is increasing Cool nights and cool days are becoming less frequent Extreme Hydro-climatic Events 11 New Delhi Observed Climate Change Impact Cryosphore studies in Nepal • Glaciers of Nepal Himalayas are retreating – Glacier lakes are forming and expanding – Higher chances of GLOF 12 New Delhi X010 Glacier retreating at the rate of 10 meter per year (Source: GEN/DHM) 13 New Delhi Imja Glacier Lake (DHM) 14 New Delhi Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake 15 New Delhi How Fast They Are Shrinking? • Faster than the other glaciers • Faster than the previous estimate Dyurgerov [2002]; Fujita et al. [1997, JG; 1998; BGR; 2001, BGR] New Delhi Climate Change Projection Temperature Change Projection st Century For Late 21 Warmer Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, 17 India New Delhi Climate Change Projection- Late 21st Century (Karmacharya, DHM) Change in Annual Rainfall Wetter Future Up to 30% increase Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, 18 India New Delhi Climate Change Projection- Late 21st Century (Karmacharya, DHM) Change in Seasonal Rainfall Drier Winter Wetter Summer Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India 19 New Delhi (Source: Sharma, DHM) 20 20 New Delhi The changing scenario demands • That a robust policy both for water resources development and climate change adaptation is put in place – Especially because the climate change adaptation is perceived as the water-related approach! New Delhi Water Resources Strategy • Approved by government in 2002 – National goal: “living conditions of Nepali people are significantly improved in a sustainable manner through the utilization of water resources in the country” New Delhi Phased intervention • Short-term (2002-07): Tangible benefit s to the people of Nepal to achieve sustainability in basic needs fulfilment • Medium-term (2007-17): Substantial benefit to the people • Long-term (2017-27): Benefits accrued till the end of medium tem to be maximized in sustainable manner New Delhi Ten Strategic Outputs of WRS • Water Security: – Measures to manage and mitigate water induced disasters. – Management of watersheds and aquatic eco-systems. • Water Use: – Adequate supply of and access to potable water and sanitation and hygiene awareness. – Appropriate and efficient irrigation is made available. – Cost effective hydropower is developed in a sustainable manner. – Economic uses of water by industries and water bodies by tourism, fisheries and navigation are optimized. New Delhi Remaining 4 can be grouped under mechanism • Enhanced water related information systems. • Appropriate legal frameworks. • Regional cooperation for substantial mutual benefits. • Appropriate institutional mechanisms for water sector management. New Delhi National Water Plan(2002-27) • Approved in 2005 • Prepared to operationalize the Water Resources Strategy. • Doctrine of NWP: Integration, Coordination, Decentralization, Popular Participation within good governance and equitable distribution; • IWRM as one of the principal themes. • Essentially promulgated to keep the promise made at the Rio+10 meeting in Jo’berg New Delhi Institutions in Water Sector: • Planning, Policy and Coordinating – – – – – – – – – – National Planning Commission National Water Resources Development Council Water and Energy Commission Environment Protection Council Ministry of Energy Ministry of Irrigation Ministry of Physical Planning and Works Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Local Development Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation New Delhi Implementing Agencies • • • • • • Department of Irrigation Groundwater Resources Development Board Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Department of Electricity Development Department of Water Supply and Sewerage Department of Local infrastructure Development and Agriculture Roads • Nepal Electricity Authority • Nepal Water Supply Corporation • Kathmandu Valley Water Supply Management Board New Delhi IWRM and River Basin Concept: • Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) to be transformed to WEC • WEC as Apex Level institution in Water Sector • WEC members in Consultative and Advisory Committee • Establishment of River Basin Management Offices(RMBO): – Koshi, Narayani and Karnali – RBMO to be responsible for allocating waters New Delhi Implementation Arrangement New Delhi Legislation • Water Resources Act and Regulation (1992) – Umbrella legislation for hydropower, Irrigation, drinking water and other water use – Electricity Act and Regulation (1992) • Legislation of Power sector emphasizing Hydropower – Regulations under Water Resources Act • Drinking Water Supply Regulation and Irrigation Regulation • Nepal Water Supply Corporation Act, 1989 • Water Supply Management Board Act, 2007. • Environmental Protection Act, 1996 New Delhi Other Policy Frameworks • National Water Supply and Sanitation Policy, 1998 • Rural water Supply and Sanitation sector strategy and action Plan, 2004 • National Sanitation Policy 1994 • Kathmandu Valley Strategy on Water Supply and Sanitation • Irrigation Policy 2003 • Hydropower Policy 1994 New Delhi Water Management and Regulatory Agencies • • • • • • • • • Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS). Ministry of Energy (Hydro-electricity), Ministry of Irrigation, Ministry of Physical Planning and Works (Drinking water), Nepal Water Supply Corporation. Kathmandu Valley Water Supply Management Board. Water Tariff Fixation Commission. District Water Resources Committees. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Fund Development Board New Delhi ADAPTATION “Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities”.(IPCC, 2001) • Consist of multitude of behavioral, structural and technological adjustments • Adaptation measures vary in timing, scope, purposefulness and adaptive agent New Delhi Adaptation – 4 ‘i’s • Information for effective planning • Infrastructure for climate proofing • Insurance for social risk management & poverty • Institutions for disaster risk management New Delhi Adaptation within International Negotiations United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol Conference of Parties (CoP) Nairobi Work Program on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change Bali Action Plan (Bali Road Map) Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF) New Delhi National Plan and Policies Three-year plan (2010 – 2012) Climate Change National Policy 2011 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) New Delhi Three-year Plan (2010 – 2012) • Objective – make development activities climate friendly – mitigate adverse impacts of climate change – promote adaptation • Strategy – conduct study on climate change – make meteorological forecast more reliable • Responsible agency – Ministry of Environment (MoE) New Delhi Climate Change National Policy • Initiate implementation of the community based adaptation programs as prioritized in NAPA by 2012 • Seven points: 1. 2. 3. 4. Minimize climate induced disasters and risks Climate resilience Access to and utilization of financial resources Capacity building, community participation and empowerment 5. Study and research 6. Technology development, handover and use 7. Climate friendly management of natural resources New Delhi National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) • Identified key adaptation needs in – – – – – – Agriculture and food security Water resources and energy Climate induced disasters Forests and biodiversity Public health Urban settlements and infrastructure New Delhi To sum up • The climate change impact is already being felt in Nepal – Science and Research • Science that studies the impact &/or predicts the trend is still in its infancy (and is also poorly funded) • Research are thematic and done for academic purposes & don’t have feedback loops into policy/normative framework • Advancement of operational forecasting and seasonal prediction including severe weather warning • End users are not fully aware of it so not able to use the information New Delhi To sum up • Outreach – efforts are few and far between • Capacity building – inconsistent with requirement – Funding available is inconsistent • There is a serious problem with the knowledge management – Data generation and data sharing – Lacks even simple website that informs about water resource sector of Nepal New Delhi To sum up • The goals of water resources management is far from achieved (as of 2011): – About 80% population has access to safe (?) drinking water (50% of the institutionally supplied water is unsafe for human consumption without treatment) – 63% of the arable land is deprived of irrigation – Only 1% of the total hydropower potentiality of 43000 MW has yet been tapped – 29% of all diseases-linked deaths are due to water borne diseases – 43% of property losses are due to water-induced disasters New Delhi Requires both thinking out of the box & country New New Delhi Delhi Thank You UNESCO Office New Delhi