Download Climate change: Ecosystem functioning, adaptation and climate

Sino-Norwegian cooperation to meet the global challenges Workshop on Polar, Environmental and Climate Change Research.
EXPO 2010, 9 - 10 September
Climate change: Ecosystem functioning, adaptation and
climate-ecosystem interaction.
Kyrre L. Kausrud, Xu Lei, Leif Christian Stige,
Huidong Tian, Tamara Ben Ari, Zhibin Zhang, Nils Chr. Stenseth
[email protected]
www.cees.uio.no
Ecological responses to climate change
Vital rates
change
+
Organism
Predicted
result
Climate parameter
Ecological
interactions
Resulting
dynamical
changes
Real average
result
Real-world interaction webs are often complex in time and space…
+
Therefore, long ecological time series are important!
=…
Coupling historical data and
paleoclimate...
Oriental Migratory Locusts
Image: Baoyu Xie
Ma Shijun
… we find that locust abundance is highest during
cold* and wet decades
* Opposite to previous annual and local scale studies
… when frequent floods and droughts might favour
locust breeding
Locusts, temperature, drought and flood are
coherent on 160-170 year time scales
Temperature
Locusts
Drought
Locusts
Flood
Locusts
There are significant coherences between temperature,
drought and flood risks, and locust swarms.
Locusts - temperature
Temperature - drought
Locusts - drought
Temperature - flood
Locusts - flood
Drought - flood
But the links are operating on long time scales
Extending the locust series:
Locust-climate
link holds 2000
years back
Huidong Tian1,6, Leif Chr. Stige2, Bernard Cazelles3,4, Kyrre L. Kausrud2, Rune Svarverud5, Nils Chr.
Stenseth2*, Zhibin Zhang1*. Reconstruction of 2000 years locust series reveals its links with solar and
climate cycles in China. Manuscript.
1. State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.
China
2. Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, N–0316 Oslo, Norway
3. UMR 7625, UPMC–CNRS–ENS, Ecole Normale Superieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris cedex 05, France
4. UMI 209, IRD–UPMC, 32 avenue Henri Varagnat, 93142 Bondy cedex, France
5. Department of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1010 Blindern N–0315 Oslo, Norway
6. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. China
Conclusion:
ecological responses to slow climatic changes and
interannual variability may be different
Annual, local
scale
Higher
temperature
More
locusts
Ma et al. (1958, 1965)
Decadal
scale
Fewer
locusts
Analysis of human plague
The 3rd pandemic
in China:
North
China
..reveals
links to
climate
Plague
intensity
South
China
Year t
Year t-1
Climate (dryness/wetness)
Lei Xu1,5, Qiyong Liu2, Leif Chr. Stige3, Tamara Ben Ari3, Xiye Fang6, Kung-Sik Chan4, Shuchun Wang6*, Nils Chr.
Stenseth3* and Zhibin Zhang1*. Nonlinearities between plague and climate in China. Manuscript.
1State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
2 State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease
Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
3Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway.
4Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, 52242, USA
5Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
6National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
Analyses of Central Asian plague foci
with paleoclimatic data
…show link between historical
climate and large-scale
primary production
…and between climate fluctuations and historical
plague epidemics
Kausrud KL, Begon, M, Ben Ari, T, Viljugrein H, Esper J, Büntgen U, Leirs H, Junge C, Yang B, Yang
M, Xu L, Stenseth NC. (2010) Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia:
paleoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium BMC Biology In press
Conclusion:
climate impacts on the dynamics and evolution of
disease systems can have dramatic consequences
Higher
Temperature
and
precipitation
Host, vector
and pathogen
abundance
More
frequent
epizootics
Human risk
increased
Climate variation shape human history through
ecological effects
Temperature
Droughts
Floods
Internal wars
External wars
All wars
Locust plagues
Rice price
Conclusion:
climate changes affect fundamental human needs
and thus social stability
Temperature
and
precipitation
Food and
livestock
production
Social
dynamics
Military
power
As ecological changes can be slow and complex,
we need long records of climate and ecology.
Analyses of the past may tell us about the future.
Thank you for your time!