Download presenting - InterAcademy Council

Hans von Storch
Director, Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS, Germany
Professor, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg
Roles played in any of the IPCC assessment processes?
• TAR: lead author WG I
• AR4: volunteered to act as lead author, but not picked; invitation to
act as review author declined.
• AR5: volunteered to act as lead author in WG II; obviously not
picked
Participation at some expert workshops
Overview
• Problems
• Suggested elements of a solution
• The regional example BACC
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
The IPCC…
• Reports contain errors. This is not a surprise given the
sheer volume of the reports.
• Examples: Himalaya, Low lying part of The Netherlands,
endangered food supply in Africa.
• All WG 2 (impacts), all exaggerations – by coincidence?
Often related to employing material provided by
interested parties.
• IPCC has not adopted mechanisms for dealing with
such problems.
• But, maybe “just” sloppiness…
• But: No known errors in WG 1(physics)
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
2009
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Not a sloppy error …
supplementary materials to Chapter 1
of WGII
- reviewers pointed to the problem
- the authors choose this
representation even though the
issue was, and still is, scientifically
contested. Significant literature
was disregarded.
- IPCC authors have decided to
violate the mission of IPCC, by
presenting disinformation.
- IPCC secretariat is not giving
answers, why issue is not rectified.
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
2006
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Survey in Hamburg
50
Umfrage von Beate Ratter, GKSS
Fehler: +/- 4%
Hamburg 2008
Hamburg 2009
Hamburg 2010
40
%
30
20
10
0
sehr groß
groß
weniger groß
nicht gegeben
Die Bedrohung durch den Klimawandel halten wir für ...
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Insight needed:
Climate science is in a postnormal state
• Postnormal science: Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986
and earlier.
• When facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high
and decisions urgent, science is not done for reasons for
curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived
value-based agendas.
• Climate science is in a postnormal state.
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Two different construction of „climate change“ –
scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is
real, can be mitigated to some
extent but not completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Postnormality requires
• Analysis of two bodies of knowledge claims, namely
(dominantly) scientifically constructed knowledge, and
(dominantly) culturally constructed knowledge.
• Analytical support by cultural sciences needed.
• Discrimination between scientifically solid core of
knowledge vs. added politically convenient (contested)
knowledge claims.
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
IPCC
procedures
need
revisions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Dominant (“best”) authors are no longer responsible for describing
consensus (as “lead authors”) – (otherwise they assess their own work).
Political and economic interests are not informing the process of
assessing the legitimate scientific knowledge.
An independent “ombudsman”-system takes care of complaints about
factual errors (in determining consensus) and conflicts of interest.
Assessment by IPCC is independent of acting persons. Dominant authors
must be frequently replaced.
IPCC is providing an ovberview of the contested issues. In particular it
describes dis-sensus. IPCC encourages falsification.
Political and scientific functions within IPCC must be strictly separated.
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
The Baltic Sea Catchment Assessment: BACC
An IPCC-like effort to document the
scientifically legitimized knowledge
about anthropogenic climate change
available for the Baltic Sea catchment.
Under the supervision of the GEWEX
sub-programme BALTEX.
Two issues, the IPCC could learn
something from BACC:
1. Strict separation between
bookkeeping of knowledge (BACC)
and political assessment (HELCOM).
2. Survey among scientists on how
well the effort succeeded in tracking
the available knowledge.
3. The issue of “grey”-ness
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
More than 30 contributing institutions
More than 80 contributing authors from
13 countries
More than 2000 references
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
The report is based on the BACC material
but condensed to 59 pages with a focus of
the marine environment of the Baltic Sea. It
has been approved by the HELCOM
contracting governments of 9 countries and
the European Commission.
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Assessing Scientific Reports: The BACC report
How well do you feel your area of expertise was represented
1 = not at all 7 = very well
Past and current climate change
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change
Change in terrestrial - freshwater ecosystems
Change in marine ecosystems
Sea level rise
other
no
Bray, 2010, pers. comm.
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
t
a
at
ll
2
3
4
5
6
ry
ve
level of representation
el
w
l
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
The issue of “grey”-ness
“The essence of the Lead Authors’ task is the synthesis of
material drawn comprehensively from the available
scientifically legitimate literature (e.g. peer reviewed
literature, conference proceedings, reports of scientific
institutes). Studies whose results and conclusions cannot
be reconciled with a consensus view but which are of a
good scientific and technical standard should be taken into
account. The assessment should thus encompass the
knowledge about what scientists agree on but also identify
cases of disagreement or knowledge gaps.”
BACC-2 rules
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC
Take home
• IPCC is an indispensable effort.
• IPCC processes need to be improved.
• Needed: Mechanism to deal with claims about errors and
conflicts of interest.
• Needed: Mechanism to avoid group dynamics.
• Needed: Discrimination between scientifically legitimate
knowledge and culturally constructed (value-based)
knowledge claims.
• No assessment, if no scientific legitimate knowledge has
been generated.
• Learning from regional efforts.
Hans von Storch
- 1. Problems
- 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC