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Biofuels, National Security and The Evolving US Energy Posture Sixth Annual EBI Biofuels Law and Regulation Conference "Re-Imagining Policy Incentives for Biofuels” Dr. Leo Goff, Captain USN (Ret.) Program Manager CNA Military Advisory Board President ACARYIS Former Commanding Officer USS City of Corpus Christi SSN 705 BLUF • Oil Dependence is a National Security Threat • DOD can be a Driver for Oil Independence CNA’s Leadership on Energy & National Security CNA -- Research organization providing in-depth analysis and solutions for government leaders MAB -- 2007-2013 Over 30 Members (Rotational) • • • • • • • • • • • • General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret) General James Conway, USMC (Ret) Admiral “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret) General Paul Kern, USA (Ret) General “Chuck”. Wald, USAF (Ret) General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret) Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret) General Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret) Admiral Steve Abbot, USN (Ret) Vice Admiral Denny McGinn, USN (Ret) Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret) Sherri Goodman CNA MAB National Security Framework • Economic Strength • Geopolitical Stability • Military Capability • Environmental Sustainability National Security Is More Than DOD MAB #1 Finding America’s dependence on fossil fuels constitutes a significant national security threat Economy •Completely reliant and vulnerable •Transportation system totally dependent (food, jobs, etc) •Price volatility stifles investment Geopolitics •Limits our options on the world stage •Sizeable Mid-east presence •China will be competing for same oil– raise tensions Militarily •High oil price limits investment in capability and capacity •Single source– increase vulnerability, long logistics tails Environment •Pollution, oil spills, GHG •Grandkids need oil for things beside fuel •Not in my back yard – limits further US production Oil - The Facts • U.S. uses ~ 18-19 million barrels/day • About 40% is imported • About 40% of imported is from OPEC • Global commodity – price set by global supply (OPEC) and demand (ROW) • China is NOW world the largest importer and growing at 7% each year o China exceed US imports THIS Year (years earlier than predicted) 7 Evolving Energy Posture -- US Oil Production U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview New Energy Posture: Five “Myths”? 1 North American can achieve oil independence 2 US can achieve energy independence 3 The new found oil/gas will allow us to reduce US presence in the Middle East 4 New found gas supplies solve the GHG problem 5 We can shift away from renewable/clean energy U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview New Posture: North American Oil Independence 11 Non OCED Oil Demand Accelerates New Posture: US Energy Independence 14 15 New Posture: US and the Middle East 16 16 New Posture: Climate Stress U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview 17 New Posture: Climate Stress CNA Military Advisory Board National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007) • Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security • Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world • Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world • Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges • U.S. should commit to stabilize climate changes to avoid significant disruption to global security and stability New Posture: The Impact of Clean Energy 19 New Posture and Renewables 20 DOD as a Leader in Renewables DOD consumes 145 million barrels annually DOD alternative fuels policy: Ensure operational military readiness Improve battlespace and expeditionary effectiveness Increase the ability to use multiple, reliable fuel sources Increased resilience - supply disruptions- price volatility Increased fuel options for operational commanders “drop-in,” that is, requiring no modification to existing engines cost-competitive with conventional petroleum fuels available in sufficient quantities; derived from a non-food crop feedstock; and have lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions less than or equal to conventional petroleum 21 Service Initiatives Army By 2025, at least 25% of energy used for tactical power derived from renewable. By 2028 50% of the fuel requirement in the training base for the tactical mobility met by alternative fuel blends Air Force As of 2012 tested and certified all aircraft and systems on a 50:50 alternative fuel By 2016 acquire 50% of the Air Force’s domestic aviation fuel requirements via an alternative fuel blend in which the alternative component is derived from domestic sources produced in a manner that is greener than fuels produced from conventional petroleum Navy By 2016 deploy a “Great Green Fleet” strike group of ships and aircraft running entirely on alternative fuel blends by 2016. Demonstrated during the 2012 RIMPAC By 2020 50% of the Navy's total energy consumption from alternative sources 22 Other Initiatives • 2006 and 2009 DOD • clean energy investments increased 300 % • from $400 million to $1.2 billion • Starting in 2015 Pentagon will be spending $2.25 billion per year • By 2030 projected at $10 billion annually 23 Other Initiatives 2011 Defense Production Act -- Departments of the Navy, Energy and Agriculture Memorandum of Understanding "assist the development and support of a sustainable commercial biofuels industry.“ Support advanced drop-in biofuel plants and refineries to produce advanced biofuels that meet military specifications; • are price competitive with petroleum; • are at geographically diverse locations with ready market access; • have no significant impact on the food supply.24 $510 million over a period of three years, with $170 million each from the Navy, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Agriculture. 24 Questions 25 Back-up CNA- Military Advisory Board Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement (2011) • America’s dependence on oil constitutes a significant national security threat • A 30 percent reduction in our use of petroleum would significantly improve our national security • We can achieve a significant portion of a 30 percent reduction through greater efficiency in oil use • There are many promising alternatives to oil as a transport… all of the most promising alternative fuels examined can lower overall national security risks rather than continuing our overreliance on oil CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB) CNA -- Research organization providing in-depth analysis and solutions for government leaders MAB -- 2007-2011 Over 30 Members (Rotational) • • • • • • • • • • • • • General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret) General James Conway, USMC (Ret) Admiral “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret) General Paul Kern, USA (Ret) General “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret) General Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret) Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret) General Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret) Admiral John Nathman, USN (Ret) Admiral Steve Abbot, USN (Ret) Vice Admiral D. McGinn, USN (Ret) Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret) General Paul Kern, USA (Ret) Chief of Staff, US Army Commandant of Marine Corps Director, Navy Nuclear Power Commander, Army Materiel Command Deputy Commander, U.S. European CMD Commander, Air Combat Command Commander, US Navy Europe Assistant Commandant, USMC Commander, Fleet Forces Command Deputy Commander, US European Command Commander, Third Fleet Inspector General, Department of the Navy Commanding General, Army Material Command New Posture: US Oil Demand