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Biofuels, National Security and
The Evolving US Energy Posture
Sixth Annual EBI Biofuels Law and Regulation Conference
"Re-Imagining Policy Incentives for Biofuels”
Dr. Leo Goff, Captain USN (Ret.)
Program Manager CNA Military Advisory Board
President ACARYIS
Former Commanding Officer USS City of Corpus Christi SSN 705
BLUF
• Oil Dependence is a National Security Threat
• DOD can be a Driver for Oil Independence
CNA’s Leadership on Energy & National Security
CNA -- Research organization
providing in-depth analysis and
solutions for government leaders
MAB -- 2007-2013 Over 30 Members (Rotational)
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General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret)
General James Conway, USMC (Ret)
Admiral “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret)
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret)
General “Chuck”. Wald, USAF (Ret)
General Ron Keys, USAF (Ret)
Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret)
General Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret)
Admiral Steve Abbot, USN (Ret)
Vice Admiral Denny McGinn, USN (Ret)
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret)
Sherri Goodman
CNA MAB National Security Framework
• Economic Strength
• Geopolitical Stability
• Military Capability
• Environmental Sustainability
National Security Is More Than DOD
MAB #1 Finding
America’s dependence on fossil fuels
constitutes a significant national security
threat
Economy
•Completely reliant and vulnerable
•Transportation system totally dependent (food, jobs, etc)
•Price volatility stifles investment
Geopolitics
•Limits our options on the world stage
•Sizeable Mid-east presence
•China will be competing for same oil– raise tensions
Militarily
•High oil price limits investment in capability and capacity
•Single source– increase vulnerability, long logistics tails
Environment
•Pollution, oil spills, GHG
•Grandkids need oil for things beside fuel
•Not in my back yard – limits further US production
Oil - The Facts
• U.S. uses ~ 18-19 million barrels/day
• About 40% is imported
• About 40% of imported is from OPEC
• Global commodity – price set by
global supply (OPEC) and demand
(ROW)
• China is NOW world the largest
importer and growing at 7% each
year
o China exceed US imports THIS
Year (years earlier than predicted)
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Evolving Energy Posture -- US Oil Production
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview
New Energy Posture: Five “Myths”?
1 North American can achieve oil independence
2 US can achieve energy independence
3 The new found oil/gas will allow us to reduce
US presence in the Middle East
4 New found gas supplies solve the GHG problem
5 We can shift away from renewable/clean energy
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview
New Posture: North American Oil Independence
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Non OCED Oil Demand Accelerates
New Posture: US Energy Independence
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New Posture: US and the Middle East
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New Posture: Climate Stress
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Overview
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New Posture: Climate Stress
CNA Military Advisory Board
National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007)
• Projected climate change poses a serious
threat to America’s national security
• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for
instability in some of the most volatile regions of
the world
• Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of
the world
• Climate change, national security, and energy dependence
are a related set of global challenges
• U.S. should commit to stabilize climate changes to avoid
significant disruption to global security and stability
New Posture: The Impact of Clean Energy
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New Posture and Renewables
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DOD as a Leader in Renewables
DOD consumes 145 million barrels annually
DOD alternative fuels policy:
 Ensure operational military readiness
 Improve battlespace and expeditionary effectiveness
 Increase the ability to use multiple, reliable fuel sources
 Increased resilience - supply disruptions- price volatility
 Increased fuel options for operational commanders
 “drop-in,” that is, requiring no modification to existing engines
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cost-competitive with conventional petroleum fuels
available in sufficient quantities;
derived from a non-food crop feedstock; and
have lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions less than or equal to
conventional petroleum
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Service Initiatives
Army
 By 2025, at least 25% of energy used for tactical power derived from renewable.
 By 2028 50% of the fuel requirement in the training base for the tactical mobility
met by alternative fuel blends
Air Force
 As of 2012 tested and certified all aircraft and systems on a 50:50 alternative
fuel
 By 2016 acquire 50% of the Air Force’s domestic aviation fuel requirements via
an alternative fuel blend in which the alternative component is derived from
domestic sources produced in a manner that is greener than fuels produced from
conventional petroleum
Navy
 By 2016 deploy a “Great Green Fleet” strike group of ships and aircraft running
entirely on alternative fuel blends by 2016. Demonstrated during the 2012
RIMPAC
 By 2020 50% of the Navy's total energy consumption from alternative sources
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Other Initiatives
• 2006 and 2009 DOD
• clean energy investments increased 300 %
• from $400 million to $1.2 billion
• Starting in 2015 Pentagon will be spending
$2.25 billion per year
• By 2030 projected at $10 billion annually
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Other Initiatives
2011 Defense Production Act -- Departments of the Navy,
Energy and Agriculture Memorandum of Understanding
"assist the development and support of a sustainable
commercial biofuels industry.“
Support advanced drop-in biofuel plants and refineries to
produce advanced biofuels that
meet military specifications;
• are price competitive with petroleum;
• are at geographically diverse locations with ready market access;
• have no significant impact on the food supply.24
$510 million over a period of three years, with $170 million each
from the Navy, the Department of Energy, and the
Department of Agriculture.
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Questions
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Back-up
CNA- Military Advisory Board
Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement (2011)
• America’s dependence on oil constitutes
a significant national security threat
• A 30 percent reduction in our use of petroleum
would significantly improve our national
security
• We can achieve a significant portion of a 30
percent reduction through greater
efficiency in oil use
• There are many promising alternatives to oil as a transport…
all of the most promising alternative fuels examined can lower
overall national security risks rather than continuing our
overreliance on oil
CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB)
CNA -- Research organization providing in-depth analysis
and solutions for government leaders
MAB -- 2007-2011 Over 30 Members (Rotational)
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General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret)
General James Conway, USMC (Ret)
Admiral “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret)
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret)
General “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret)
General Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret)
Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret)
General Robert Magnus, USMC (Ret)
Admiral John Nathman, USN (Ret)
Admiral Steve Abbot, USN (Ret)
Vice Admiral D. McGinn, USN (Ret)
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret)
General Paul Kern, USA (Ret)
Chief of Staff, US Army
Commandant of Marine Corps
Director, Navy Nuclear Power
Commander, Army Materiel Command
Deputy Commander, U.S. European CMD
Commander, Air Combat Command
Commander, US Navy Europe
Assistant Commandant, USMC
Commander, Fleet Forces Command
Deputy Commander, US European Command
Commander, Third Fleet
Inspector General, Department of the Navy
Commanding General, Army Material
Command
New Posture: US Oil Demand