Download WP C /Gap Analysis

SIOS: Gap Analysis
 SIOS – not a new infrastructure, but upgrading
and integration of existing infrastructures in and
around Svalbard
 Starting point: ”observatories” (discipline-based:
atmosphere, ocean, ice, land)
 BUT: shouldn’t focus be on ”Integrated”, i.e.
interdisciplinary?
 AND: Which topics is Svalbard especially suited for?
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
Gap analysis, cont.’d
 Establishment of topic-oriented groups:
 Group 1: Magnetosphere – ionosphere – links to climate
 Group 2: Climate change and pollution: geophysical
processes (atmosphere, ocean, land, ice)
 Group 3: Environmental change and marine ecosystems
(ocean, ice, biology)
 Group 4: Environmental change and terrestrial ecosystems
(soil/permafrost, ice, biology)
 Group 5: Long-term changes and solid earth (geology,
geochemistry, geodesy, paleoclimate, ice)
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
Group work tasks
1) What are the crucial questions (scientific, monitoring/
management related) in your field in the Arctic, incl. links to
other fields?
2) For which of those is Svalbard naturally suited as a field
laboratory?
3) What infrastructure is available/what is needed to address
the relevant questions adequately?
4) What can be the role of the Knowledge Centre in your field?
5) Proposal of working group for further gap analysis
6) Should one stick to the new structure or go back to the initial
observatory structure? How can one integrate geographically
spread units?
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
WP C i SIOS-PP:
WP C covers the very important work of assessing the existing infrastructure in
the light of the scientific topics which are to be addressed by SIOS and identifying
needs for upgrading facilities and additional infrastructure. This is a process which
was started in 2009 using Norwegian funding and own contributions from the
participating institutions, with the establishment of six gap analysis working
groups.
…
In a second step, these results will be merged in a synthesis process with the
aim of removing redundancies and achieve an integrated view of the
infrastructure as a whole. The resulting synthesis report, which is due about 1
year after the start of the SIOS-PP project, is envisaged to become the baseline
for a common scientific strategy for the future SIOS infrastructure, with a
prioritized list of infrastructure investments and an estimate of operational costs.
The strategy will be revised and, if necessary, updated with the support of
an (external) Advisory Board (see management structure section) on a regular
basis. The first version of this strategy will form the basis for the Financial
Strategy to be addressed by WP 3, covering both the investment plan and the
business plan/operational cost plan. WP C will also have an important influence
on WP 2 (governance structure) and WP 8 (internal integration).
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
SIOS Key topics identified by WGs

WG1:
 Primary coupling processes that
connect the troposphere, stratosphere,
mesosphere and lower thermosphere
 Response of coupling processes to
solar variability and climate change;
causes of observed long-term changes
in ionospheric parameters
 Role of dust and aerosols in the upper
atmosphere and ionosphere; effect of
meteoric input and cosmic radiation
affect the whole atmosphere
 Effect of magnetic reconnection on the ionosphere and
thermosphere
 Influence of small-scale structures and dynamics on changes in the
large scale plasma parameters and vice versa
 Long-term evolution of ion and neutral outflow in global energy,
mass and momentum transfer between the magnetosphere and
ionosphere
 Interhemispheric conjugacy and seasonal dependence of solar wind
coupling and energy input into the thermosphere
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (2)

WG2:
 Sea ice in the Arctic: studies of
processes and fluxes through the
gateways
 Oceanographic processes in the
Svalbard region and the Fram
Strait: small scales - large impacts
on regional climate and the Arctic
Ocean as a whole
 The Arctic troposphere - boundary
layer – surface system and its
impacts on arctic climate in a region
with large natural variability
 Terrestrial cryosphere, weather and
hydrology in the Svalbard region
Temperature anomaly October/November
2005-07 (NCEP analysis)
 Greenhouse gas budgets on- and offshore: jokers in the Arctic climate
system
 Vertical Atmospheric coupling from the surface to the ionosphere
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (3)

WG3:
 Spatial and temporal variations in
the species composition and
distribution of zooplankton,
benthos, key fish species and
arctic, endemic top trophic marine
mammals
 Trends in the vertical distribution
of zooplankton by use of sediment
traps and acoustic methods
 Assessment of trends in carbon
export and biogeochemical cycling
using sediment traps
Location of established ecosystem monitoring
transects
 Establish ecological baselines and physical mechanisms of
ecosystem regulation using benthos as a monitoring tool
 Identify thresholds that can change Arctic marine food webs and
energy transfer
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (4)
WG 4:


How do high arctic permafrost landscapes affect the carbon
and nitrogen cycle?

Periglacial landform responses to climate change

Use of ice-rich permafrost landforms as direct climatic
archives

Geohazards associated with permafrost and/or snow in the
Svalbard landscape

The dynamics of the coastal zone and its reaction to climatic
changes

Extent of permafrost from land and below the sea

(Contemporary) Baseline and Biodiversity of the Svalbard
terrestrial biota

Polar terrestrial ecosystem resilience to variability and change,
especially overwintering aspects

Marine-terrestrial ecosystem links: nutrients and pollution
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (4)
WG 5:


Arctic geohazards: deglaciationrelated seismicity, permafrost
thawing, gas hydrates decay

Glaciology: mass balance and
dynamics

The paleo-climate of Svalbard:
sedimentary rocks (“breathing
Earth”); ice and marine sediment
coring

Past and present tectonic processes; implications for ocean
currents and climate change

Past and present marine sedimentary processes, climate and
environments on Svalbard
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
Fig. 1. Map of Svalbard seismicity for years
2007-April 2009.
31 August - 2 September, 2010
SIOS Key topics identified by WGs (6)
WG 6:


Elucidation of local contamination incl. potential role of the
increased tourist, fishing, population and industry
developments on the islands for the local pollutant situation

Development of abatement strategies for reduction or even
avoiding release of pollution into the Arctic environment in
conjunction with local partners

The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) as accumulation zone for the
release of ice-transported pollutants.

Evaluation and baseline studies of the pollutant situation on
the terrestrial ecosystems in Svalbard
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
Future work
 Are all these topics relevant for Arctic ESS?
 Are there important topics missing?
 Who can help to review/complete the list within the
next 6 months?
 How do we continue the work with the
infrastructure listing tables, both existing and
needed (very different levels of detailing)?
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
NSF Science Plan for Regional Arctic System
Modeling
 Recent document: scientifically updated
 Complementary to SIOS gap analysis process focusing on needs on modeling side:
 Technical capacity,
 Organisation
 Scientific focus areas (”Arctic System Modeling
Vignettes”)
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
NSF Science Plan for Regional Arctic System
Modeling: Vignettes
 Arctic amplification: local or global?
 future changes in Arctic sea ice cover
 carbon feedbacks to climate in the Arctic system (terrestrial
and marine)
 processes affecting glacier mass balance
 (Arctic coastal erosion)
 biosphere feedbacks on atmospheric composition
 short-term impacts of permafrost degradation
 (Forecasting environmental resilience of Arctic freshwater
resources – socio-biophysical coupling)
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
1st Gap Analysis synthesis group Workshop
 31 August -2 September, 2010 Kap Linné
 Participants: WG leaders + R. Rønneberg (local
organizer, UNIS)
 Work done:
 Review of gap analysis mandate, assessment of group
reports in light of this
 Grouping of identified key topics, removal of redundancies
 Identification of gaps
 Decision on further process
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
Revised list of key topics(preliminary)
(1) Vertical coupling in the arctic atmosphere from the free troposphere to the ionosphere
(2) Oceanic processes and sea ice in the Svalbard region
(3) The Arctic troposphere – boundary layer – surface system and cloud-albedo feedback
(4) Processes affecting glacier/ice cap balance
(5) Svalbard regional climate: Extended Meteorological Stations Network
(6) Carbon (and other GHG) feedback processes in the Arctic climate system
(7) Marine transport of energy and nutrients horizontally, vertically and through the food
chain
(8) Arctic permafrost, geomorphological processes and hydrology
(9) Arctic geohazards caused by climate change processes
(10)Paleo-climatic studies as a key to understand current rapid change (?)
(11)Direct human impact of the Arctic System: local (and long-range transported) pollution
(12)Phase transition processes of environmental pollutants and impact of climate change
(13)Contemporary baseline of terrestrial ecosystems along the Svalbard climatic gradient (?)
(14)Polar terrestrial ecosystem resilience to climate variability and change (?)
(15)Marine-terrestrial ecosystem links and exchange (?)
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010
Future actions
 Extension of synthesis group: ca. 10 more experts
(international) to cover all the main (scientific)
topics of SIOS
 Next meeting end of November:
 Assessment of critical topics identified on first meeting
 revision of investment proposals by working groups
 Preparation of meeting with ESS experts
 Meeting with ESS experts (and SIOS Advisory
Board?) in February 2011
 Final meeting in April to conclude the synthesis
process
1st Gap Analysis Synthesis Group Meeting, Kap Linné, Svalbard
31 August - 2 September, 2010