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Climate change adaptation and Australia's water resources and freshwater biodiversity Stuart Bunn (Convenor) ([email protected]) Brendan Edgar (Coordinator) ([email protected]) Outline Context – freshwater biodiversity Direct climate change threats • Rising temperature • Rising sea level • Changing rainfall and flow regimes Climate change in context • Climate vs direct impacts of humans on freshwater resources National Climate Change Adaptation Facility Freshwater biodiversity • Surface freshwater habitats contain only around 0.01% of the world’s water and cover only about 0.8% of the Earth’s surface • Yet supports 9.5% of all described animal species (~40% of fish diversity and 30% vertebrate diversity) Trends in biodiversity: 1970-2000 Population declines in freshwater are twice that of terrestrial and marine systems Anthropocene for freshwater ? Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 • 10,000-20,000 freshwater species are extinct or imperiled • In intensively developed regions, more than one-third of the species in some freshwater taxa are threatened Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Freshwater biodiversity BC Sturgeon “Goddess of the Yangtze” (Baiji ) Mekong catfish Qld Lungfish Mary River Turtle Australia’s freshwater biodiversity • Many faunal groups are more diverse in Australia than elsewhere (e.g. galaxiid fish, parastacid crayfish, phreatoicid isopods) • Highly diverse stygofauna • Fish fauna is relatively depauperate (~200 spp) though shows a high degree of endemism • Biota include relicts of Pangaean and Gondwanan origin (e.g. syncarid shrimps, petalurid dragonflies, lungfish, salamander fish) Temperature CSIRO (2007). Climate change in Australia Rising stream temperatures Spiny crayfish Euastacus • unique endemics • intolerant of high temperatures • tops of mountains in mesic rainforests • ‘mesothermal island archipelago’ Distribution of Queensland Euastacus 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. m 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 1300 E. robertsi E. fleckeri E. balanensis E. yigara E. bindal E. eungella E. monteithorium E. hystricosus E. urospinosus E. setosus E. jagara E. suttoni E. sulcatus E. maidae mE. valentulus E. robertsi 1370 1. Cairns 2. (>1000 m) E. fleckeri E. balanensis 1580 m 3. 800 600 400 200 4 3 2 1 E. eungella Mackay 5. oC E. bindal Townsville 4. m 1340 m 6. 1280 m E. monteithorum Gladstone N (>750 m) 7. 940 m Queensland 8. 9. Brisbane 800 m E. urospinosus E. hystricosus E. setosus 10. 680 m 13. 11. 14. M.Ponniah (2003) 12. (>500 m) 15. 1100 m E. sulcatus (>250 m) Stream-dwelling rainforest frogs … similar fate? Torrent Tree Frog Litoria nannotis Photo R.Alford Lace-eyed tree frog Nyctimystes dayi Photo H. Cogger Northern Tinkerfrog Taudactylus rheophilus Rising seas - coastal wetlands Many of northern Australia’s freshwater lagoons are low-lying (0.2–1.2 m above MHWL) and vulnerable to projected sea-level rises of 10 – 30 cms Lowry & Knox (in prep). • Expansion of tidal channel networks • Increased storm surge Changing rainfall patterns Reduction in stream flows e.g. Flow scenarios in the Macquarie River: • 3–10% lower rainfall by 2030, 3–10% higher evaporation and 11–32% reduction in MAR into the Marshes by 2030 • likely to result in a reduction of semi-permanent and ephemeral wetland vegetation by 20-40% • similar reductions (up to 30% MAR) predicted for other MDB rivers (e.g. Ovens, Goulburn) • Environment does not have same security of water entitlement as consumptive users Dryland rivers - water holes Refugia for aquatic biota Waterhole persistence • Long dry spells with little local rainfall • High evaporation (2-3m), Shallow (often <2 m) • Topped up by surface flow - no groundwater inputs GL/day 400 300 200 21 months – longest spell 100 1950 1951 1952 Hamilton et al. (2005) L&O 50, 743-54. 1953 Dry spell < 2 years ~ 40 waterholes Australia’s freshwater biodiversity in a future climate? • Loss of some endemics – even under conservative temperature scenarios (e.g. mountain islands) • Losses of freshwater wetlands and associated biota - rising sea levels (tidal intrusion + storm surge) • Changing flow regimes (drier and more variable; higher evaporation?) increased pressure on refugia • Direct effects of humans on rivers will be more significant in the short term – urban expansion and increased agricultural demand for water. • Climate variability – compound this further as we attempt to drought proof our cities. Adaptation challenge: How do we meet these growing demands without causing further declines in biodiversity and ecosystem health? Water & climate news Countryman; 16/07/2009 Sunday Mail Adelaide Australian Courier Mail 04-Dec-2009 15-Nov-2009 16-Nov-2009 Sunday Age; 19/07/2009 Adelaide Advertiser; 16/07/2009 Age; 20/07/2009 Sunraysia Daily; 16/07/2009 Sunday Mail Adelaide; 19/07/2009 Sunraysia Daily; 15/07/2009 Australian; 16/07/2009 Australian Journal Of Mining; 01/08/2009 OECD study on agricultural water use • Irrigated area not likely to increase very much over coming decades • Major new irrigation infrastructure development unlikely (i.e. financial and physical limits) • Potential for agriculture to use recycled and desalinated water marginal and costly • High priority to improve productivity of existing irrigation system, and raise the water productivity of rain-fed agricultural systems. Megalitres per hectare of irrigated land 1990-92 14 12 2001-03 % change -3% 1900-92 to 2001-03 -10% 10 -50% 8 1995-97 -12% na +69% -19% +7% 6 4 2 0 Australia Spain United States Mexico Turkey Greece Portugal Italy Calls to ‘drought-proof’ our cities In the face of growing population and greater variability and uncertainty in rainfall and runoff: Southern ‘pipe’ dreams South East Queensland water grid Mary River • • • • • new dams Desalination Potable re-use interbasin transfers little discussion of environmental flow provisions Threatened freshwater species Photo: Scott Lamond NCCARF Water network Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Water Resources & Freshwater Biodiversity Network Hosted by Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University Regional nodes Governance Water Resources Freshwater biodiversity Climate scenarios WA Murdoch U SA Adelaide U Vic UniWater Tas U Tasmania ACT Capital-WATER NSW Newcastle U Qld Griffith U NT Charles Darwin U Adaptation themes Node Host Partners Current - research • • • • • • • • • • • • Griffith University University of Adelaide Australian National University Charles Darwin University CSIRO James Cook University MDFRC/LaTrobe Melbourne University Monash University Murdoch University Museum of Victoria NRETA Through nodes • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • NSW Dept Climate Change Qld University of Technology SAWater SARDI University of Canberra University of Newcastle University of New South Wales University of Southern Qld University of Tasmania University of Technology Sydney University of Western Australia UniWater State and Territory natural resource management agencies Local Government Catchment management authorities Industry Representative bodies Agriculture, mining, consulting firms Network themes Climate Scenarios • develop scenarios of likely climate change and its implications for freshwater biodiversity and water resources Governance • inform development of water allocation and market arrangements that support adaptation to climate change Water Resources • inform policies and management practices for interception activities (including farms dams, plantation forestry) and the joint management of surface and groundwater Freshwater Biodiversity • inform adaptive management of environmental flows and other mitigation strategies to protect freshwater biodiversity and maintain aquatic ecosystem health Capacity Building • building the capability of science and management to coordinate and deliver adaptive management responses Links with other networks Water Resources and Freshwater Biodiversity Network Settlements and Infrastructure Theme Climate scenarios Water security desalination, PRW stormwater quantity Governance Water Resources Capacity Building Terrestrial biodiversity - Links to wetlands and groundwater dependent ecosystems Freshwater biodiversity Crop water use efficiency Primary industries Theme Terrestrial Biodiversity Theme Estuarine ecosystems - environmental flows, wastewater management Water-borne disease Human health Theme Marine Biodiversity and Resources Theme Current network activities • • • • • Coordinating research proposals (NARP) Synthesis papers/ fact sheets on Themes and Issues Scholarships/bursaries Network communication and workshops Network expansion – jurisdictions Questions? Climate Scenarios • Downscaling climate models • Modelling extreme events • Understanding past and present hydro-climate • Vegetation/ water relationships Water Resources • Integrated hydrologic modelling • Energy/ food/ supply-demand • Coastal vulnerability • Groundwater/ surface water management Governance • Institutional and legal Structures • Water pricing and markets • Water planning • Regional planning Freshwater Biodiversity • • • • Species distribution and climate relationships Flow and habitat management Refugia and reserve design Fragmentation and barriers Capacity Building • • • • Professional capability Science communication Institutional Capacity Research opportunities