Download Article ID: 1673-1719 (2006) Suppl - China Climate Change Info-Net

Contents
Volume 2 Supplement1 August 2006
Articles
1
6
13
22
28
35
41
Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China ( I ): Climate and
environment changes in China and their projections
Qin Dahe, Ding Yihui, Su Jilan, et al.
Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China ( II ): Impacts, adaptation
and mitigation of climate and environment changes
Chen Yiyu, Ding Yongjian, She Zhixiang, et al.
The Treatment of Uncertainties in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report
Martin R. Manning
Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements
Pan Jiahua
Environmental Change and Agricultural Development in Historical Documentary
Records for Northwest China
Zhang De’er
Trend of Evapotranspiration over the Yangtze River Basin in 1961-2000
Wang Yanjun, Jiang Tong, Xu Chong yu, et al.
Abrupt Change in the First Tropopause Height over Xinjiang in 1960-1999
Zhang Guangxing, Li Juan, Cui Caixia, et al.
Letters
46
50
54
59
64
68
73
77
81
84
Dangerous Level of Climate Change and Building the Adaptive Capacity for
Sustainable Development
Lin Erda
Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century
Xu Yinlong, Huang Xiaoying, Zhang Yong, et al.
Complexities of China’s Coast in Response to Climate Change
Fan Daidu, Li Congxian
Recognition of Ecosystem Response to Climate Change Impact
Wu Shaohong, Zhao Huixia, Yin Yunhe, et al.
Abrupt Climate Change from Pre-Xia to Xia Dynasty and the Formation of Ancient
Chinese Civilization
Wang Shaowu
Review on Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources System in the Upper Reaches
of Yellow River
Lan Yongchao, Lin Shu, Shen Yongping, et al.
Studies on the Chronology of Millennial Time Scale Climate Oscillations in the
Holocene
Wang Shaowu, Zhu Jinhong
Permafrost Changes in the Tibetan Plateau
Wu Qingbai, Lu Zijian, LiuYongzhi
Considerations of China Coping with Negotiations for Global Climate Change
Wang Limao, Yu Huichao
Guidance to Authors
目
次
第 2 卷 增刊 1 2006 年 8 月
研究论文
1 中国气候与环境演变评估（Ⅰ）：中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势
秦大河
丁一汇
苏纪兰 等
6 中国气候与环境演变评估（Ⅱ）：气候与环境变化的影响,适应和减缓对策
陈宜瑜
13
IPCC 第四次评估报告中不确定性的处理方法
丁永建
佘之祥 等
Martin R. Manning
22 后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势
潘家华
28 历史记录的西北环境变化与农业开发
张德二
35 长江流域 1961-2000 年蒸发量变化趋势
王艳君
姜
彤
许崇育 等
娟
崔彩霞 等
41 新疆 1960-1999 年第一对流层顶高度变化及其突变分析
张广兴
短
李
论
46 气候变化危险水平与可持续发展的适应能力建设
50 中国 21 世纪气候变化情景的统计分析
林而达
许吟隆
黄晓莹
54 中国沿海响应气候变化的复杂性
59 生态系统对气候变化适应的辨识
张
范代读
吴绍洪
赵慧霞
勇 等
李从先
尹云鹤 等
64 夏朝立国前后的气候突变与中华古文明的诞生
王绍武
68 气候变化对黄河上游水资源系统影响的研究进展
蓝永超
林
73 全新世千年尺度气候振荡的年代学研究
77 青藏高原多年冻土的变化
81 中国应对气候变化谈判的几点思考
吴青柏
纾
沈永平 等
王绍武
朱锦红
陆子建
刘永智
王礼茂
余慧超
Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China (I): Climate and
environment changes in China and their projections
Qin Dahe 1, Ding Yihui 2, Su Jilan 3, Ren Jiawen 4, Wang Shaowu 5, Wu Rongsheng 6,
Yang Xiuqun 6, Wang Sumin 7, Liu Shiyin 4, Dong Guangrong 4, Lu Qi 8,
Huang Zhenguo 9, Du Bilan 10, Luo Yong 2
1 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
3 Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China;
4 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
5 Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
6 Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
7 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008,
China;
8 State Forestry Administration, Beijing 100091, China;
9 Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510008, China;
10 State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100860, China
Abstract: In the last 100 years, the global climate and environment have greatly changed, which
is characterized mainly by global warming. These changes have exerted prominent impacts on the
climate and environment changes in China. More than 100 Chinese scientists in areas of climate
change, environment, ecology, oceanography, economic and social sciences have assessed the
climate and environment changes in China and their impacts on natural ecosystem and
socio-economic sectors. On the basis of scientific assessment, response strategies to the adaptation
and mitigation of climate change have been suggested. The present paper is extracted from the
first part of this scientific assessment report, mainly dealing with the science of the climate and
environment changes and the future projections of climate change.
Key words: climate change; environment change; future projections; China
Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China (II): Impacts,
adaptation and mitigation of climate and environment changes
Chen Yiyu 1, Ding Yongjian 2, She Zhixiang 3, Lin Erda 4, Pan Jiahua 5,
Zhou Guangsheng 6, Wang Shourong 7, Zhou Dadi 8, Li Congxian 9,
Zhang Jianyun 10, Xu Guodi 11, Liu Chunzhen 12, Wu Zongxin 13
1 National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing 100085, China;
2 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008,
China;
4 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of
Agriculture Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
5 Research Center for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing
100732, China;
6 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China;
7 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
8 Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038,
China;
9 Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;
10 Hydrology Bureau, Ministry of Water Resource of P. R. China, Beijing 100053, China;
11 Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission,
Beijing 100038, China;
12 Hydrological Information Center, Ministry of Water Resource of P. R. China, Beijing 100761,
China;
13 Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract: Climate and environment changes in China have impacted not only on the nature, but
also on aspects of the society, economy and politics. On the basis of the scientific assessment, the
advantages and disadvantages impacts of the climate and environment changes on China are
discussed in various aspects, such as ecosystem, agriculture, soil degradation, industry, traffic,
service, city, and living conditions. In addition, the impacts of climate change on the regional
sustainable development have been assessed, and national strategies for adaptation and mitigation
of climate and environment changes in China are put forward.
Key words: impact of climate change; advantages and disadvantages; adaptation and mitigation;
China
The Treatment of Uncertainties in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report
Martin R. Manning
IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, the National Oceanic and Atmosphoric
Administration, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
Abstract: The IPCC has developed an approach to the treatment of uncertainties for the Fourth
Assessment Report which is an evolution of the approach established for the Third Assessment
Report. Several features of this evolution are discussed briefly here and this paper serves as an
introduction to the “IPCC Uncertainty Guidance Note” for lead authors which is included as an
appendix. Particular attention is given to use of the terms “likelihood” and “confidence” as
alternative ways of expressing uncertainty. This distinction emerged in the Third Assessment
Report and was the subject of some debate before finalising the Guidance Note, however, it is now
recognized that each term provides a complementary aspect of describing uncertainties.
Key words: uncertainties; report; IPCC AR4
Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements
Pan Jiahua
Research Centre for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing
100081, China
Abstract: The negotiation of the international climate regimes is a highly complicated process.
Nevertheless, the determinants for post-2012 commitments still rely on the political will,
economic interest and scientific knowledge of the global powers. The vehicles for post-Kyoto
negotiations will be not only confined to the UNFCCC course, but bilateral, multilateral
agreements and even unilateral commitments outside the UNFCCC are also likely to take place.
Furthermore, the contents of agreements will cover mitigation, adaptation, technologies, and low
carbon development. In the end, it is likely to become a basket of agreements to adapt and
mitigate the climate change under the overall framework of sustainable development.
Key words: post-Kyoto agreements; climate negotiation; UNFCCC
Environmental Change and Agricultural
Documentary Records for Northwest China
Development
in
Historical
Zhang De’er
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract: The paper investigates the historical agricultural exploitation in Northwest China, and
its social benefits in the context of historical documents and their relationship with temperature
and humidity backgrounds. Results show that during the Western Han Dynasty (206 BC-25 AD)
and the early stage of Tang Dynasty (ca.7th century) climate was suitable for agriculture, leading
to the success of large-scale wasteland reclamation in Gansu Province (called Hexi area in history),
however during the late stage of the Tang Dynasty (ca. 8th-9th century) and the middle of the
Ming Dynasty (ca.16th century), the climate there went into a cold stage, leading to the decline of
stationing troops who opened up wasteland in the region; the prosperity of the Tarim Basin at the
beginning of the Christian Era and its subsequent decline were linked to changes in water
resources; and historically, the reclamation and later desertion were responsible for accelerating
land desertification, and its typical examples are the formation of the Wulanbuhe Desert and the
frequent occurrence of severe sand storm events in the warmer 13th century as the bad aftermath
of the desertification.
Key words: Northwest China; historical climate; environmental change; agricultural exploitation;
reclamation and desertion; historical documentary records
Trend of Evapotranspiration over the Yangtze River Basin in 1961-2000
Wang Yanjun1, 2, 3, Jiang Tong 1, Xu Chongyu 4, Shi Yafeng1, 5
1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nangjing
210008, China;
2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
3 Laboratory for Climate studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
4 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;
5 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Abstract: Based on observed data from 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin
from 1961 to 2000, pan (20cm diameter) evaporation (EP), reference evapotranspiration (Er) and
actual evapotranspiration (Ea) as well as their trends are calculated and analyzed. Results indicate
that significant negative trends of EP, Er and Ea are detected in the upper, middle, and lower as
well as the whole Yangtze River basin, especially in summer. No significant trends in spring for
EP, Er and Ea are observed. EP and Er in winter show significant negative trends, while Ea in
winter shows a significant positive trend. The spatial distribution of this kind of negative trends is
more significant over the middle and lower Yangtze River reaches than that in the upper Yangtze
River reaches. However, in the same periods the observed air temperature in the Yangtze River
basin shows a significantly increasing trend, which would increase evapotranspiration. A recent
investigation shows that the significant decrease in net radiation and wind speed over the basin
may in turn cause the decrease in evapotranspiration after compensating the increase in air
temperature.
Key words: pan evaporation; reference evapotranspiration; actual evapotranspiration; spatial and
temporal distribution; Yangtze River basin
Abrupt Change in the First Tropopause Height over Xinjiang in 1960-1999
Zhang Guangxing 1, Li Juan 1, Cui Caixia 1, Xin Yu 2
1 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi Xinjiang 830002,
China;
2 Meteorological Bureau of Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Bole Xinjiang 833400,
China
Abstract: Based on the1960-1999 daily radiosounding data from twelve stations in Xinjiang,
which is divided into four sub-areas, the Altai Mountains, the northern and southern slopes of
Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains by climate features and latitude distribution,
trends of the annual mean heights and spatial differences of the first tropopause in the past 40
years were analyzed, and tests of the abrupt change of mean heights conducted by Mann-Kendall
and successive running t-test. The results showed that there was an overall increasing trend of
mean height for the first tropopause over Xinjiang during 1960-1999, in particular during
1987-1999. From the view of the interdecadal change, the mean height obviously decreased from
the 1960s to the early 1970s, and afterwards gradually increased with an accumulated height
increment more than 100 m. The successive running t-test showed that a remarkable abrupt change
of mean height occurred in the Altai Mountains in 1972, the southern slopes of the Tianshan
Mountains in 1976, and the northern slopes in 1979, but no remarkable change happened in the
Kunlun Mountains. The mean height obviously increased all over Xinjiang except the Kunlun
Mountains. Although there were various differences in four sub-areas of Xinjiang, the increasing
trend of mean height was rather consistent from the end of 1980s to 1999 over Xinjiang.
Key words: the first tropopause height; change trend; analysis of abrupt change
Dangerous Level of Climate Change and Building the Adaptive Capacity for
Sustainable Development
Lin Erda
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract: The key vulnerability and dangerous level of climate change are hot issues in current
international climate change research. This paper briefly outlines the basic concept of dangerous
climate change and its uncertainties to determine quantitatively the dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. Simulation results suggest that a 2.2-3.9℃warming in next
50-80 years with adaptation will not threaten wheat and maize production severely. To mitigate or
avoid dangerous climate change, the strategy of adaptation is suggested for regional sustainable
development in China.
Key words: climate change; sustainable development; adaptation; dangerous level
Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century
Xu Yinlong 1, Huang Xiaoying 1,2, Zhang Yong 1,3, Lin Wantao 4, Lin Erda 1
1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
2 School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275,
China;
3 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of
Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
4 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Abstract: The changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in the three time-slices of the
21st century under SRES A2, B2 scenarios is firstly analyzed using the regional climate model
system-PRECIS, then followed by analysis on the possible change trend of surface air temperature
and precipitation under B2 scenario over China. It is shown that the future extreme maximum
temperature and precipitation events would increase, while the future extreme minimum
temperature events would decrease during 2071-2100 under B2 scenario over China relative to
baseline (1961-1990) average. It can be seen that the temperature in Northeast China, North China,
and Northwest China would increase, while the precipitation would decrease under B2 scenario in
2071-2100, the climate would obviously become warmer and drier over these three regions in the
northern part of China; and the precipitation over Central China, East China, and South China
would increase largely in summer, while not so much in winter, especially the precipitation in
South China in winter would obviously decrease. It means that both the flooding in summer and
drought in winter would be enhanced over these three regions in the southern part of China.
Key words: regional climate model; climate change scenarios; statistical analyses; surface air
maximum/minimum temperature; precipitation
Complexities of China’s Coast in Response to Climate Change
Fan Daidu, Li Congxian
State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
Abstract: Global warming and rising sea level have been observed to exert great impacts on
China’s coast in the past century, including increased coastal erosion, degraded coastal ecosystems,
exacerbated saltwater intrusion, and enhanced storm surges. The impacts of climate change and
the adjustments of coastal systems are significantly site specific, resulting from local differences
in climate change, coastal physiographic and ecological conditions, and resilience of coastal
systems. Anthropogenic activities also exert increasing influences on coastal systems. Societal
vulnerabilities to climate change are greatly influenced by their adaptive capacities and selective
adjustment, which are greatly determined by local socioeconomic conditions, so they are also
highly localized. Coastal systems do not behave linearly to climate change. The projected
increasing global warming and accelerating sea level rise will undoubtedly impose more threats to
coastal systems. However, it is still difficult to determine the coastal socio-ecological thresholds to
climate change without full understandings of coastal physical and biological processes, and
adaptation responses of coastal ecosystems and human societies.
Key words: coastal systems, climate change, sea-level rise, vulnerability, adaptive capacity,
regional variability
Recognition of Ecosystem Response to Climate Change Impact
Wu Shaohong 1, 2, Zhao Huixia 1, 3, Yin Yunhe 1, 3, Li Shuangcheng 4, Shao Xuemei 1, 2, Tao
Bo 1
1 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
2 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;
3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
4 Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract: Observed global warming has impacted on ecosystems directly and indirectly.
Governments, enterprises and common people in the world pay attention to the climate change of
mainly global warming. General recognition for coping with the negative impact of climate
change is to adopt adaptation and mitigation strategies, which are two aspects of sustainable
development supporting each other. According to the definition of “dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system” addressed by the Article 2 of UNFCCC, “dangerous
climate” to which man can not adapt is taken as the “threshold” of the impact of climate change on
different systems. Such a threshold is the integrated result of climate impact level and the adaptive
capacity of a system. Lagged studies and uncertainties of climate change make the threshold still
unquantified. Therefore, when, where and how would mitigation be implemented has not been
clear. This paper focuses on the impact of climate change on ecosystem, and analyzes key issues
for determining the threshold, such as the definition, processes, criteria and assessment of
ecosystem adaptive capacity. Simulation and assessment of China’s ecosystems are performed
with the CEVSA model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Preliminary results show
that ecosystems of China are mainly in ecological baseline, slightly and moderately unadapted
states, and the completely unadapted state does not occur. The B2 climate scenario (about 3.2℃
rising) has a certain positive impact on ecosystem in Northeast China, while the A2 climate
scenario (about 3.89℃ rising) has a negative impact on ecosystem in East China.
Key words: climate change; adaptation; threshold; ecosystem; China
Abrupt Climate Change from Pre-Xia to Xia Dynasty and the Formation of
Ancient Chinese Civilization
Wang Shaowu
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract: The abrupt climate change of wetness in China from 2100 BC to 1800 BC is examined
according to historical documentations, archaeological evidences and palaeo-climatic proxy data.
The results show that there was a period with predominance of floods before the foundation of the
Xia Dynasty (2070 BC). The folklore of “Regulation of floods by Great Yu” marked the ending of
the period with floods. Climate turned to dry around the establishment of the Xia Dynasty. There
are evidences to show that the annual precipitation reduced by 20% within a period less than 300
years. This change may be acknowledged as an event of abrupt climate change. The evidences
show that change from wet to dry condition probably caused the collapse of archaeological
cultures in China except in the central part of the main land area, where development of Chinese
civilization leaded to the foundation of the Xia Dynasty.
Key words: Xia Dynasty; abrupt climate change; ancient Chinese civilization
Review on Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources System in the Upper
Reaches of Yellow River
Lan Yongchao 1, Lin Shu 2, Shen Yongping 1, Wei Zhi 1, Chang Junjie 3
1 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2 Lanzhou Regional Climate Centre, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3 Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Yellow River Basin,
Water Conservancy Committee in the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou 730030, China
Abstract: Results and progresses of studies on the impact of global warming on the water
resources system in the upper reaches of Yellow River in the recent years are introduced based on
relevant papers published in various Chinese natural science journals. The studies show that the
hydrological and water resources system in the basin is quite particular, because the basin is
geographically situated in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where the average altitude is over 3000 m
and the climate is very cold, so it is very sensitive to climate changes, especially to precipitation
changes. The surface runoff in the basin increases with precipitation increasing and decreases with
temperature rising. The evolutional trend of water cycle in the upper reaches of Yellow River in
the 21st century is that the transpiration increases, and the surface runoff decreases with persistent
temperature rising. As global temperature rising, the evaporation on land and ocean and the
moisture in the atmosphere will generally increase, and the global mean precipitation will also
increase, which would seemingly increase the probability of precipitation in the upper reaches of
Yellow River. However, the increment in evaporation resulted from temperature rising not only
cancels out to a great extent the potential increment of precipitation, but also makes water
resources decrease to a certain extent because the range of precipitation increase is very limited.
Therefore the future situation of water resources in the upper reaches of Yellow River is still not
optimistic. It is necessary to solve the problem of water resources shortage in north and northwest
China through various approaches, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, so as to
abate and adapt to the unfavorable impact of future climate changes.
Key words: global warming; the upper reaches of Yellow River; water resources
Studies on the Chronology of Millennial Time Scale Climate Oscillations in the
Holocene
Wang Shaowu, Zhu Jinhong
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Abstract: Ten high-resolution time series of climate proxy data of the Holocene were synthesized.
Comparison of the chronologies of cold events in the North Atlantic with which of monsoon
failures in the Asian-African monsoon region shows great identity. All together nine cold events in
the Holocene are identified with the weak monsoon events, while the monsoon rainfall decreased.
Key words: Holocene; millennial scale climate oscillation; chronology
Permafrost Changes in the Tibetan Plateau
Wu Qingbai, Lu Zijian, Liu Yongzhi
State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and
Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Abstract: The monitoring data of permafrost temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during
1995-2004 are analyzed, and results show that under the impact of global warming, the permafrost
are changing remarkably in recent 10 years, the thickness of active layer is increasing notably, and
this kind of trend is even more evident in the warm permafrost region than in the cold permafrost
region. The temperatures both near permafrost table and at the depth of 6 m are rising evidently,
and the rising rate of temperature in the cold permafrost region is greater than one in the warm
permafrost region. There is clear responsibility between permafrost changes of the
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and global warming.
Key words: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; permafrost; thickness of active layer; global warming
Considerations of China Coping with Negotiations for Global Climate Change
Wang Limao 1, Yu Huichao 1, 2
1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
Abstract: China is a developing country, and the most important thing for China is to develop
economy and to improve the living standard of its people. It is reasonable for China to say that
after becoming a medium developed country, it will take on quantitative commitments. Compared
with some EU countries that can increase CO2 emission, the per capita energy consumption, per
capita CO2 emission, per capita GDP and some human development indicators of China are much
lower than them. It is reasonable that China should increase CO2 emission in order to meet the
basic demand of economic and social development. Before becoming a medium developed
country, China could consider taking on non-binding commitments, such as to keep the
stabilization of the emission intensity per GDP in a certain period of time.
Key words: greenhouse gas; climate change negotiations; policy; CO2 emission intensity