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Contents Volume 2 Supplement1 August 2006 Articles 1 6 13 22 28 35 41 Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China ( I ): Climate and environment changes in China and their projections Qin Dahe, Ding Yihui, Su Jilan, et al. Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China ( II ): Impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate and environment changes Chen Yiyu, Ding Yongjian, She Zhixiang, et al. The Treatment of Uncertainties in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report Martin R. Manning Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements Pan Jiahua Environmental Change and Agricultural Development in Historical Documentary Records for Northwest China Zhang De’er Trend of Evapotranspiration over the Yangtze River Basin in 1961-2000 Wang Yanjun, Jiang Tong, Xu Chong yu, et al. Abrupt Change in the First Tropopause Height over Xinjiang in 1960-1999 Zhang Guangxing, Li Juan, Cui Caixia, et al. Letters 46 50 54 59 64 68 73 77 81 84 Dangerous Level of Climate Change and Building the Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Development Lin Erda Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century Xu Yinlong, Huang Xiaoying, Zhang Yong, et al. Complexities of China’s Coast in Response to Climate Change Fan Daidu, Li Congxian Recognition of Ecosystem Response to Climate Change Impact Wu Shaohong, Zhao Huixia, Yin Yunhe, et al. Abrupt Climate Change from Pre-Xia to Xia Dynasty and the Formation of Ancient Chinese Civilization Wang Shaowu Review on Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources System in the Upper Reaches of Yellow River Lan Yongchao, Lin Shu, Shen Yongping, et al. Studies on the Chronology of Millennial Time Scale Climate Oscillations in the Holocene Wang Shaowu, Zhu Jinhong Permafrost Changes in the Tibetan Plateau Wu Qingbai, Lu Zijian, LiuYongzhi Considerations of China Coping with Negotiations for Global Climate Change Wang Limao, Yu Huichao Guidance to Authors 目 次 第 2 卷 增刊 1 2006 年 8 月 研究论文 1 中国气候与环境演变评估(Ⅰ):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势 秦大河 丁一汇 苏纪兰 等 6 中国气候与环境演变评估(Ⅱ):气候与环境变化的影响,适应和减缓对策 陈宜瑜 13 IPCC 第四次评估报告中不确定性的处理方法 丁永建 佘之祥 等 Martin R. Manning 22 后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势 潘家华 28 历史记录的西北环境变化与农业开发 张德二 35 长江流域 1961-2000 年蒸发量变化趋势 王艳君 姜 彤 许崇育 等 娟 崔彩霞 等 41 新疆 1960-1999 年第一对流层顶高度变化及其突变分析 张广兴 短 李 论 46 气候变化危险水平与可持续发展的适应能力建设 50 中国 21 世纪气候变化情景的统计分析 林而达 许吟隆 黄晓莹 54 中国沿海响应气候变化的复杂性 59 生态系统对气候变化适应的辨识 张 范代读 吴绍洪 赵慧霞 勇 等 李从先 尹云鹤 等 64 夏朝立国前后的气候突变与中华古文明的诞生 王绍武 68 气候变化对黄河上游水资源系统影响的研究进展 蓝永超 林 73 全新世千年尺度气候振荡的年代学研究 77 青藏高原多年冻土的变化 81 中国应对气候变化谈判的几点思考 吴青柏 纾 沈永平 等 王绍武 朱锦红 陆子建 刘永智 王礼茂 余慧超 Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China (I): Climate and environment changes in China and their projections Qin Dahe 1, Ding Yihui 2, Su Jilan 3, Ren Jiawen 4, Wang Shaowu 5, Wu Rongsheng 6, Yang Xiuqun 6, Wang Sumin 7, Liu Shiyin 4, Dong Guangrong 4, Lu Qi 8, Huang Zhenguo 9, Du Bilan 10, Luo Yong 2 1 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China; 4 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 5 Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 6 Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; 7 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 8 State Forestry Administration, Beijing 100091, China; 9 Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510008, China; 10 State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100860, China Abstract: In the last 100 years, the global climate and environment have greatly changed, which is characterized mainly by global warming. These changes have exerted prominent impacts on the climate and environment changes in China. More than 100 Chinese scientists in areas of climate change, environment, ecology, oceanography, economic and social sciences have assessed the climate and environment changes in China and their impacts on natural ecosystem and socio-economic sectors. On the basis of scientific assessment, response strategies to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change have been suggested. The present paper is extracted from the first part of this scientific assessment report, mainly dealing with the science of the climate and environment changes and the future projections of climate change. Key words: climate change; environment change; future projections; China Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China (II): Impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate and environment changes Chen Yiyu 1, Ding Yongjian 2, She Zhixiang 3, Lin Erda 4, Pan Jiahua 5, Zhou Guangsheng 6, Wang Shourong 7, Zhou Dadi 8, Li Congxian 9, Zhang Jianyun 10, Xu Guodi 11, Liu Chunzhen 12, Wu Zongxin 13 1 National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing 100085, China; 2 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 3 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 4 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 5 Research Center for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China; 6 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China; 7 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 8 Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China; 9 Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China; 10 Hydrology Bureau, Ministry of Water Resource of P. R. China, Beijing 100053, China; 11 Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China; 12 Hydrological Information Center, Ministry of Water Resource of P. R. China, Beijing 100761, China; 13 Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Abstract: Climate and environment changes in China have impacted not only on the nature, but also on aspects of the society, economy and politics. On the basis of the scientific assessment, the advantages and disadvantages impacts of the climate and environment changes on China are discussed in various aspects, such as ecosystem, agriculture, soil degradation, industry, traffic, service, city, and living conditions. In addition, the impacts of climate change on the regional sustainable development have been assessed, and national strategies for adaptation and mitigation of climate and environment changes in China are put forward. Key words: impact of climate change; advantages and disadvantages; adaptation and mitigation; China The Treatment of Uncertainties in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report Martin R. Manning IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, the National Oceanic and Atmosphoric Administration, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA Abstract: The IPCC has developed an approach to the treatment of uncertainties for the Fourth Assessment Report which is an evolution of the approach established for the Third Assessment Report. Several features of this evolution are discussed briefly here and this paper serves as an introduction to the “IPCC Uncertainty Guidance Note” for lead authors which is included as an appendix. Particular attention is given to use of the terms “likelihood” and “confidence” as alternative ways of expressing uncertainty. This distinction emerged in the Third Assessment Report and was the subject of some debate before finalising the Guidance Note, however, it is now recognized that each term provides a complementary aspect of describing uncertainties. Key words: uncertainties; report; IPCC AR4 Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements Pan Jiahua Research Centre for Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100081, China Abstract: The negotiation of the international climate regimes is a highly complicated process. Nevertheless, the determinants for post-2012 commitments still rely on the political will, economic interest and scientific knowledge of the global powers. The vehicles for post-Kyoto negotiations will be not only confined to the UNFCCC course, but bilateral, multilateral agreements and even unilateral commitments outside the UNFCCC are also likely to take place. Furthermore, the contents of agreements will cover mitigation, adaptation, technologies, and low carbon development. In the end, it is likely to become a basket of agreements to adapt and mitigate the climate change under the overall framework of sustainable development. Key words: post-Kyoto agreements; climate negotiation; UNFCCC Environmental Change and Agricultural Documentary Records for Northwest China Development in Historical Zhang De’er National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China Abstract: The paper investigates the historical agricultural exploitation in Northwest China, and its social benefits in the context of historical documents and their relationship with temperature and humidity backgrounds. Results show that during the Western Han Dynasty (206 BC-25 AD) and the early stage of Tang Dynasty (ca.7th century) climate was suitable for agriculture, leading to the success of large-scale wasteland reclamation in Gansu Province (called Hexi area in history), however during the late stage of the Tang Dynasty (ca. 8th-9th century) and the middle of the Ming Dynasty (ca.16th century), the climate there went into a cold stage, leading to the decline of stationing troops who opened up wasteland in the region; the prosperity of the Tarim Basin at the beginning of the Christian Era and its subsequent decline were linked to changes in water resources; and historically, the reclamation and later desertion were responsible for accelerating land desertification, and its typical examples are the formation of the Wulanbuhe Desert and the frequent occurrence of severe sand storm events in the warmer 13th century as the bad aftermath of the desertification. Key words: Northwest China; historical climate; environmental change; agricultural exploitation; reclamation and desertion; historical documentary records Trend of Evapotranspiration over the Yangtze River Basin in 1961-2000 Wang Yanjun1, 2, 3, Jiang Tong 1, Xu Chongyu 4, Shi Yafeng1, 5 1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nangjing 210008, China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; 3 Laboratory for Climate studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; 5 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China Abstract: Based on observed data from 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin from 1961 to 2000, pan (20cm diameter) evaporation (EP), reference evapotranspiration (Er) and actual evapotranspiration (Ea) as well as their trends are calculated and analyzed. Results indicate that significant negative trends of EP, Er and Ea are detected in the upper, middle, and lower as well as the whole Yangtze River basin, especially in summer. No significant trends in spring for EP, Er and Ea are observed. EP and Er in winter show significant negative trends, while Ea in winter shows a significant positive trend. The spatial distribution of this kind of negative trends is more significant over the middle and lower Yangtze River reaches than that in the upper Yangtze River reaches. However, in the same periods the observed air temperature in the Yangtze River basin shows a significantly increasing trend, which would increase evapotranspiration. A recent investigation shows that the significant decrease in net radiation and wind speed over the basin may in turn cause the decrease in evapotranspiration after compensating the increase in air temperature. Key words: pan evaporation; reference evapotranspiration; actual evapotranspiration; spatial and temporal distribution; Yangtze River basin Abrupt Change in the First Tropopause Height over Xinjiang in 1960-1999 Zhang Guangxing 1, Li Juan 1, Cui Caixia 1, Xin Yu 2 1 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi Xinjiang 830002, China; 2 Meteorological Bureau of Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Bole Xinjiang 833400, China Abstract: Based on the1960-1999 daily radiosounding data from twelve stations in Xinjiang, which is divided into four sub-areas, the Altai Mountains, the northern and southern slopes of Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains by climate features and latitude distribution, trends of the annual mean heights and spatial differences of the first tropopause in the past 40 years were analyzed, and tests of the abrupt change of mean heights conducted by Mann-Kendall and successive running t-test. The results showed that there was an overall increasing trend of mean height for the first tropopause over Xinjiang during 1960-1999, in particular during 1987-1999. From the view of the interdecadal change, the mean height obviously decreased from the 1960s to the early 1970s, and afterwards gradually increased with an accumulated height increment more than 100 m. The successive running t-test showed that a remarkable abrupt change of mean height occurred in the Altai Mountains in 1972, the southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in 1976, and the northern slopes in 1979, but no remarkable change happened in the Kunlun Mountains. The mean height obviously increased all over Xinjiang except the Kunlun Mountains. Although there were various differences in four sub-areas of Xinjiang, the increasing trend of mean height was rather consistent from the end of 1980s to 1999 over Xinjiang. Key words: the first tropopause height; change trend; analysis of abrupt change Dangerous Level of Climate Change and Building the Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Development Lin Erda Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China Abstract: The key vulnerability and dangerous level of climate change are hot issues in current international climate change research. This paper briefly outlines the basic concept of dangerous climate change and its uncertainties to determine quantitatively the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Simulation results suggest that a 2.2-3.9℃warming in next 50-80 years with adaptation will not threaten wheat and maize production severely. To mitigate or avoid dangerous climate change, the strategy of adaptation is suggested for regional sustainable development in China. Key words: climate change; sustainable development; adaptation; dangerous level Statistical Analyses of Climate Change Scenarios over China in the 21st Century Xu Yinlong 1, Huang Xiaoying 1,2, Zhang Yong 1,3, Lin Wantao 4, Lin Erda 1 1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2 School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 3 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 4 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Abstract: The changes of surface air temperature and precipitation in the three time-slices of the 21st century under SRES A2, B2 scenarios is firstly analyzed using the regional climate model system-PRECIS, then followed by analysis on the possible change trend of surface air temperature and precipitation under B2 scenario over China. It is shown that the future extreme maximum temperature and precipitation events would increase, while the future extreme minimum temperature events would decrease during 2071-2100 under B2 scenario over China relative to baseline (1961-1990) average. It can be seen that the temperature in Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China would increase, while the precipitation would decrease under B2 scenario in 2071-2100, the climate would obviously become warmer and drier over these three regions in the northern part of China; and the precipitation over Central China, East China, and South China would increase largely in summer, while not so much in winter, especially the precipitation in South China in winter would obviously decrease. It means that both the flooding in summer and drought in winter would be enhanced over these three regions in the southern part of China. Key words: regional climate model; climate change scenarios; statistical analyses; surface air maximum/minimum temperature; precipitation Complexities of China’s Coast in Response to Climate Change Fan Daidu, Li Congxian State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China Abstract: Global warming and rising sea level have been observed to exert great impacts on China’s coast in the past century, including increased coastal erosion, degraded coastal ecosystems, exacerbated saltwater intrusion, and enhanced storm surges. The impacts of climate change and the adjustments of coastal systems are significantly site specific, resulting from local differences in climate change, coastal physiographic and ecological conditions, and resilience of coastal systems. Anthropogenic activities also exert increasing influences on coastal systems. Societal vulnerabilities to climate change are greatly influenced by their adaptive capacities and selective adjustment, which are greatly determined by local socioeconomic conditions, so they are also highly localized. Coastal systems do not behave linearly to climate change. The projected increasing global warming and accelerating sea level rise will undoubtedly impose more threats to coastal systems. However, it is still difficult to determine the coastal socio-ecological thresholds to climate change without full understandings of coastal physical and biological processes, and adaptation responses of coastal ecosystems and human societies. Key words: coastal systems, climate change, sea-level rise, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, regional variability Recognition of Ecosystem Response to Climate Change Impact Wu Shaohong 1, 2, Zhao Huixia 1, 3, Yin Yunhe 1, 3, Li Shuangcheng 4, Shao Xuemei 1, 2, Tao Bo 1 1 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China; 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; 4 Peking University, Beijing 100871, China Abstract: Observed global warming has impacted on ecosystems directly and indirectly. Governments, enterprises and common people in the world pay attention to the climate change of mainly global warming. General recognition for coping with the negative impact of climate change is to adopt adaptation and mitigation strategies, which are two aspects of sustainable development supporting each other. According to the definition of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” addressed by the Article 2 of UNFCCC, “dangerous climate” to which man can not adapt is taken as the “threshold” of the impact of climate change on different systems. Such a threshold is the integrated result of climate impact level and the adaptive capacity of a system. Lagged studies and uncertainties of climate change make the threshold still unquantified. Therefore, when, where and how would mitigation be implemented has not been clear. This paper focuses on the impact of climate change on ecosystem, and analyzes key issues for determining the threshold, such as the definition, processes, criteria and assessment of ecosystem adaptive capacity. Simulation and assessment of China’s ecosystems are performed with the CEVSA model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Preliminary results show that ecosystems of China are mainly in ecological baseline, slightly and moderately unadapted states, and the completely unadapted state does not occur. The B2 climate scenario (about 3.2℃ rising) has a certain positive impact on ecosystem in Northeast China, while the A2 climate scenario (about 3.89℃ rising) has a negative impact on ecosystem in East China. Key words: climate change; adaptation; threshold; ecosystem; China Abrupt Climate Change from Pre-Xia to Xia Dynasty and the Formation of Ancient Chinese Civilization Wang Shaowu Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China Abstract: The abrupt climate change of wetness in China from 2100 BC to 1800 BC is examined according to historical documentations, archaeological evidences and palaeo-climatic proxy data. The results show that there was a period with predominance of floods before the foundation of the Xia Dynasty (2070 BC). The folklore of “Regulation of floods by Great Yu” marked the ending of the period with floods. Climate turned to dry around the establishment of the Xia Dynasty. There are evidences to show that the annual precipitation reduced by 20% within a period less than 300 years. This change may be acknowledged as an event of abrupt climate change. The evidences show that change from wet to dry condition probably caused the collapse of archaeological cultures in China except in the central part of the main land area, where development of Chinese civilization leaded to the foundation of the Xia Dynasty. Key words: Xia Dynasty; abrupt climate change; ancient Chinese civilization Review on Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources System in the Upper Reaches of Yellow River Lan Yongchao 1, Lin Shu 2, Shen Yongping 1, Wei Zhi 1, Chang Junjie 3 1 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 Lanzhou Regional Climate Centre, Lanzhou 730000, China; 3 Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Yellow River Basin, Water Conservancy Committee in the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou 730030, China Abstract: Results and progresses of studies on the impact of global warming on the water resources system in the upper reaches of Yellow River in the recent years are introduced based on relevant papers published in various Chinese natural science journals. The studies show that the hydrological and water resources system in the basin is quite particular, because the basin is geographically situated in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where the average altitude is over 3000 m and the climate is very cold, so it is very sensitive to climate changes, especially to precipitation changes. The surface runoff in the basin increases with precipitation increasing and decreases with temperature rising. The evolutional trend of water cycle in the upper reaches of Yellow River in the 21st century is that the transpiration increases, and the surface runoff decreases with persistent temperature rising. As global temperature rising, the evaporation on land and ocean and the moisture in the atmosphere will generally increase, and the global mean precipitation will also increase, which would seemingly increase the probability of precipitation in the upper reaches of Yellow River. However, the increment in evaporation resulted from temperature rising not only cancels out to a great extent the potential increment of precipitation, but also makes water resources decrease to a certain extent because the range of precipitation increase is very limited. Therefore the future situation of water resources in the upper reaches of Yellow River is still not optimistic. It is necessary to solve the problem of water resources shortage in north and northwest China through various approaches, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, so as to abate and adapt to the unfavorable impact of future climate changes. Key words: global warming; the upper reaches of Yellow River; water resources Studies on the Chronology of Millennial Time Scale Climate Oscillations in the Holocene Wang Shaowu, Zhu Jinhong Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China Abstract: Ten high-resolution time series of climate proxy data of the Holocene were synthesized. Comparison of the chronologies of cold events in the North Atlantic with which of monsoon failures in the Asian-African monsoon region shows great identity. All together nine cold events in the Holocene are identified with the weak monsoon events, while the monsoon rainfall decreased. Key words: Holocene; millennial scale climate oscillation; chronology Permafrost Changes in the Tibetan Plateau Wu Qingbai, Lu Zijian, Liu Yongzhi State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China Abstract: The monitoring data of permafrost temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1995-2004 are analyzed, and results show that under the impact of global warming, the permafrost are changing remarkably in recent 10 years, the thickness of active layer is increasing notably, and this kind of trend is even more evident in the warm permafrost region than in the cold permafrost region. The temperatures both near permafrost table and at the depth of 6 m are rising evidently, and the rising rate of temperature in the cold permafrost region is greater than one in the warm permafrost region. There is clear responsibility between permafrost changes of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and global warming. Key words: Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; permafrost; thickness of active layer; global warming Considerations of China Coping with Negotiations for Global Climate Change Wang Limao 1, Yu Huichao 1, 2 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China Abstract: China is a developing country, and the most important thing for China is to develop economy and to improve the living standard of its people. It is reasonable for China to say that after becoming a medium developed country, it will take on quantitative commitments. Compared with some EU countries that can increase CO2 emission, the per capita energy consumption, per capita CO2 emission, per capita GDP and some human development indicators of China are much lower than them. It is reasonable that China should increase CO2 emission in order to meet the basic demand of economic and social development. Before becoming a medium developed country, China could consider taking on non-binding commitments, such as to keep the stabilization of the emission intensity per GDP in a certain period of time. Key words: greenhouse gas; climate change negotiations; policy; CO2 emission intensity