Download Climate Change: Projected impacts on water resources in the Arab

Climate Change:
Projected impacts on water resources in
the Arab region and adaptation options
Hamed Assaf
Water Resources Section
Sustainable Development &
Productivity Division
Outline
• Climate change threats to the region
• Drivers of water scarcity
• Why is the Arab region water poor?
• Climate change impact on water resources
• How are Arab countries adapting?
• Adaptation options
September 15, 2010
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Main threats of climate change to the Arab region
• Intensification of water scarcity
• Rising sea levels
• Increased storm activities
• A move into a new climate regime, where
all the above become the norm
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3
Water Scarcity: a matter of supply and demand
• Water scarcity limits socio-economic
development and threatens ecosystems.
• Water scarcity is a result of imbalance
between supply and demand.
• Historically water scarcity has intensified
under the pressure of increasing demand.
• Climate change will exacerbate water scarcity
by reducing supply and increasing demand.
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Water scarcity– a historical perspective
• Water scarcity is a fact of life in the Arab region since
the dawn of civilization.
• Water scarcity was the catalyst for the birth of human
civilization in the region.
• The region witnessed extreme episodes of droughts:
– 300 year drought that led to the demise of the Akkadian
civilization in Northern Syria more than 4000 years ago.
– Severe droughts in the seventh century.
– Periodic droughts (and floods) in the Nile.
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Intensification of water scarcity in modern times
• Explosive growth in population
• Equally excessive growth in demand per capita driven by:
– Improved living standards
– Urbanization
– Decreased family size
• Expansion of agriculture especially in naturally drier areas
(exhaustion of both blue and green water).
• Increased competition over shared water resources
• Serious decline in the quantity and quality of renewable and
non-renewable water resources.
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Water scarcity in the Arab region
Total renewable Per capita renewable freshwater
freshwater(km3/y)
(m3/y)
Country
1970
2000
2030
Jordan
0.9
555
183
96
Lebanon
4.8
1944
1373
1015
Syria
46.1
7367
2848
1576
Algeria
14.3
1040
472
318
Egypt
86.8
2460
1279
872
Libya
0.6
302
113
71
Morocco
30
1960
1004
680
Tunisia
4.1
800
433
321
September 15, 2010
Source: ESCWA 2003: Water scarcity in the Arab world
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Why is our region
water poor?
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The atmosphere is a very active
engine that continually move heat
and moisture around the Earth
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•Under current climatic conditions the
mid-latitudes receive substantially less
precipitation than the equator and the
high latitudes.
•Regional distribution of precipitation is
highly influenced by topography.
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The Arab region
continually loses
moisture to
other regions
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Climate change will exacerbate
this disparity in the distribution of
global moisture
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The wet will get wetter and the dry will get
drier: a dreadful projection for the Arab region
Difference
between the
2081-2100
average and
the 1950-2000
average (A1B GFDL CM2.1
model)
September 15, 2010
Source: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
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1950-2000 Precipitation
40°N
21st Precipitation Change
Ataturk Dam 37.47°N
Damascus 33.50°N
30°N
Mecca 21.43°N
20°N
10°N
Addis Ababa 9.03°N
Nairobi 1.30°N
Equator
September 15, 2010
Inches of liquid water per year
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Impact of climate change on
water resources will vary in
the region
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Projected impacts of climate change
• Northern Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and the
headwaters of the Euphrates and the Tigris will likely
undergo major reduction in precipitation. (northerly
shift in the Westerlies).
• In contrast the southern regions and the headwater of
the Nile will likely receive more precipitation
(strengthening of the Monsoon).
• Precipitation intensity will likely increase in the
southern regions, while it will possibly undergo no
significant changes in the northern areas.
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Projected impacts of climate change
• Length of drier periods will likely increase
particularly in the northern and mid regions –
reduction of rain fed agricultural and grazing land.
• Demand will likely increase particularly in
agriculture due to higher evaporation rates and
reduction in soil moisture.
• The ratio of snowfall in total precipitation will likely
decrease and snowpacks will likely melt earlier
(loss of natural storage).
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How are Arab
countries adapting?
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Status of adaptation to climate change
• Arab countries at the formal and popular are now well aware
of the issue of climate change and to a lesser degree its
potential impact on water resources.
• National communications and National Adaptation Programs
of Action (NAPA).
• NGOs and international organizations.
• Action is still lagging behind awareness. Why?
–
–
–
–
Uncertainties about climatic projections and threats
Lack of capacity and resources
Political will.
Other priorities.
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Adaptation to climate change
• Adaptation to climate change can leverage
existing policies and measures to deal with
water scarcity.
• Addressing water scarcity has varied in the
region depending on:
–
–
–
–
Level of water scarcity
Financial resources
Historical dependency on agriculture
Dependency on external water resources
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Current approaches to managing water scarcity
• Countries with less water scarcity and
historically large agrarian population (Egypt,
Syria, and Iraq)
– Agricultural polices dominates water resources
management
– High level of development of water resources
infrastructure
– Competition over shared water resources with
upstream countries
– Wastewater reuse has relatively low priority
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Current approaches to managing water scarcity
• Countries with severe water scarcity yet with
strong financial resources (GCC)
– Adoption of desalination as a strategic water supply
– Food policy: food importation and securing land and
fishing rights abroad.
– Agricultural activities are curtailed (despite earlier
attempts to secure food security in some countries)
– Wastewater reuse is increasingly gaining momentum.
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Current approaches to managing water scarcity
• Countries with serious water scarcity and
modest financial resources (Jordan and
Tunis)
– Transition to more productive agriculture.
– Wastewater reuse constitutes a large share of
water used in agriculture.
– Water transfer from agriculture to urban users
– Food policy: more reliance on imported food.
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Adaptation to climate change - approach
 Integrated water resources management (IWRM)
– Maintain a balance among water’s economic,
social and environmental dimensions.
 Adaptive management – (monitoring, evaluating
and adjusting to changing conditions)
 Energy – crucial in securing water supplies
(pumping, groundwater abstraction, desalination
and treatment, potential of renewable energy
resources).
 Non-water sectors – agriculture, trade, tourism.
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Adaptation to climate change – approach
• Balance “soft” with “hard” solutions
• Soft solutions are flexible, cost effective,
socially acceptable and environmentally
friendly.
• Although less preferable, hard solutions are
necessary to provide reliable and secure
water supplies.
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•
Agricultural policies and practices
•
Diversify economy and develop human capital to reduce
dependency on agriculture and water intensive industries.
•
Food security and importation policies.
•
Regional trade – Energy and agricultural and water intensive
products
•
Development of Renewable energy resources
•
Social programs to influence population growth
•
Urban planning

Water





Non - Water
Adaptation to climate change options

Water resources infrastructure (storage & transfer)
Demand management (pricing, awareness, efficiency)
Sectorial water transfer and markets
Regional agreements on shared water resources
Laws and regulations
Wastewater reuse
Desalination
Climate change monitoring

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