Download Energy balance India Energy Sector Scenario

Energy Sector Analysis- India
Prepared by
Dr.R.N.Patel
Updated by
Pro. Shebaz Memon
Outline of Talk
• Energy Flow Diagram
• Objectives
• Data Sources
•Primary energy
•Power sector
•Energy Balance
Energy Flow Diagram
PRIMARY
PRIMARYENERGY
ENERGY
ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITY
SECONDARY ENERGY
SECONDARY
ENERGY
TRANSMISSON & DISTN. SYSTEMS
FINAL ENERGY
ENERGY UTILISATION EQUIP. & SYSTEMS
COAL, OIL, SOLAR, GAS
POWER PLANTS, REFINERIES
REFINED OIL, ELECTRICITY
RAILWAYS, TRUCKS, PIPELINES
WHAT CONSUMED BY DILIVERED
ENERGY
AUTOMOBILE, LAMP,MOTOR,
STOVE
USEFUL ENERGY
MOTIVE POWER, RADIENT ENERGY
END USE ACTIVITY
DISTANCE TRAVELLED, ILLUMINATION,
COOKED FOOD, ETC.
Data Sources
• Commercial Fuels- National Statistics Ministry of
Coal, Petroleum & N Gas, Power Annual Reports
• Compilations- TERI, CMIE
CMIE – center for monitoring Indian economy
NCAER-National council for applied economic research
• US department of Energy
• International Energy Agency
Units
• Physical Quantities- Coal, Oil (Tonnes)
Oil – Barrels
• Natural Gas- m3 (Nm3 or Sm3)
• Electricity kWh, Mus (Million units)
• Gross Calorific Value (GCV/HHV), Net Calorific
Value (NCV/LHV) – based on fuel composition
• Coal Equivalent/ Oil Equivalent – In terms of energy
equivalents of Coal or Oil
Commercial Energy Supply in India
Data
• Coal 640 MT(2012) (540 Domestic +100 Imported)
•Lignite 42 Million Tonnes(2012)
• Crude Oil
• 38 million Tonnes (Domestic) (2012)
• 171 Million Tonnes (Import) (2012)
Total @ ~209 Million Tonnes
• Natural Gas 45 billion m3
• Hydro Installed Capacity 37567 MW,
Hydro Production of Primary Sources 163,796GWh
• Nuclear Installed Capacity 4780 MW,
Nuclear Production of Primary Sources 29664 GWh
Commercial Energy Supply in India
(2011-12)
Source
Supply
Calorific Value
Total Energy
(PJ)
Coal
640 Million Tonnes
18.8 MJ/kg
12032.0
Oil
38 million Tonnes
(Domestic)
42 MJ/kg
1596.0
Oil (Import)
171
Natural Gas
45 billion m3
9300 kCal/m3
1751.8
Hydro
163796 MU
85%
693.7
Nuclear
32863MU
25%
473.2
Total
7182.0
23728.8
India – Primary Commercial Energy2011
Share of Future Energy Supply (%)
Year
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydel
Nuclear
1997-98
55
35
7
2
1
2001-02
50
32
15
2
1
2006-07
50
32
15
2
1
2010-11
53
30
14
2
1
2024-25
50
25
20
2
3
Source: Upto 2011 from Technical Note on Energy, Planning Commission, Govt. of
India (1998-99). Beyond this period the figures have been extrapolated.
India – Overall Energy
• population 1210 million (2011)
• 99600 billion Rs GDP (1.848 trillion USD) (Gross Domestic Product)
(2011), world bank
• 23.6 EJ (560 million tonnes of oil equiv.) (2011), BP Statistical
Review
• 21.52 GJ/capita/year (0.51 toe/capita/year)-2005
•19.50 GJ/capita/year (0.462 toe/capita/year)-2011
• Per capita GDP = 5410 Rs. ($1000)
• Energy/GDP = 0.56 kgoe/$
Per Capita Energy Consumption
Energy Intensity
India - Fossil Fuel Reserves
Fuel
Reserves
Coal and
Lignite
286000 +
41000
= 327000
(Million tonnes)
Crude Oil
757
Prodn
533 + 38
= 571
R/P ratio
~ 572+
38
~ 20
52
~ 24
-
~50
(million tonnes)
N. Gas
1241
(Billion m3)
Nuclear
Uranium and
Thorium(tonns)
Not accurately
estimated
170000+225000
Energy demand by Sector.
Energy demand by Fuel.
• To produce 1 Unit of electricity, we release 1 kg of CO2.
• India responsible for 700 million metric tons of CO2.
• We are 3th largest contributor to the world pollution.
• India accounts for 5.3% of greenhouse emission.
Power Sector
• 616 kWh electricity use/capita/year
• Plant load factor = Actual generation / Max possible
generation (rated load)
• Plant Heat Rate = Heat input / Electricity output
• Net Power = Gross – Auxiliary Consumption
• Installed capacity 249488.31(As on 30-06-2014)MW
•Electricity production = 762.67 billion kWh during April’12 January’13
Electricity through different routesas on 30/09/2013
Indian Power Sector
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN OPERATION
RAWATBHATA
740 MWe
(1x100+1x200+2x220)
NARORA
440 MWe ( 2x220)
KAKRAPAR
TARAPUR
860 MWe
(2x160 + 1x540)
KAIGA
440 MWe (2x220)
440 MWe (2X220)
KALPAKKAM
440 MWe (2x220)
Wind Power: Potential (49130MW)
Installable Potential, in MW
others, 7008
Andhra Pradesh,
5394
Orissa, 910
Tamil Nadu, 5374
Gujarat, 10609
Rajasthan, 5005
Karnataka, 8591
Madhya
Pradesh,
920
Maharashtra,
5439
Kerala, 790
STATE-WISE WIND POWER INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW) (UPTO 31.05.2014)
Installed capacity, total 21262.23 MW
Andhra Pradesh, 245.5
Others, 3.2
Gujarat, 2966.3
Tamil Nadu, 6987.6
Karnataka, 1933.5
Maharashtra, 2733.3
Rajasthan, 2070.7
Kerala, 35.1
Madhya Pradesh,
376.4
Wind Power Growth
3500
3000
In MW
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
year
Biomass Estimation (Million tonnes)
Source
NCAER
IREP
REDB
Fuel wood
93
169
252
Dung cake
83.2
54.2
106.9
Agriculture
Residue
36.7
62.8
99.2
Source : Urja Bharti, MNES 1994
Biomass Estimation
•About 32% of the total primary energy use in the country is still
derived from biomass and more than 70% of the country’s
population depends upon it for its energy needs.
• Uncertainties in estimation
• Usage- Domestic, Brick klin, Rice mills, and other industries
• Per capita biomass use approx constant over last 20 years
• 6.4 GJ/capita/year
• 6180 PJ – 1997-98 (4% of world)
• population 17.1% of world population
TREND OF CATEGORYWISE
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Electricity
• 214.6 GW Installed Capacity as on 28-02-13 (about 4.1% of
World Capacity Average 0.177 kW of installed capacity/capita
• World Installed capacity 0.73 kW/capita
• Low Electricity Consumption –India about 818 kWh/capita/yr
as on 2011
• Nepal 93, Bangladesh 279 kWh/capita/yr as on 2008
• World Average Electricity Consumption- 2894 kWh/capita/yr
•Electricity production as on 2008 is 20,261 billion kWh
Electricity Characteristics
• High Losses - T&D and Theft 24% in most SEBs
• As many as 559241 villages out of 593732 (about 94.2%)
Villages has been electrified in India as on 31-01-2013
• Electricity Sector – from State Controlled Monopoly –
Transition – to Regulated Sector with Privatization
• Subsidized electricity to agriculture sector,
low usage residential
Electricity Sector
• SEB annual loss by 31 march 2011 is Rs 68,000crores
• Gap of 92 p/kWh- between cost of supply and revenue
• Peak shortage 12.9%, energy shortage 10.3%
• Estimated requirements of 400,000 MW additional
capacity by 2032
Climate Change – Global Facts
• 70% increase in
greenhouse gas emissions
from 1970 to 2004 (2004 at
49 GtCO2 equivalent)
• Automotive (120%) &
Energy (145%) sectors
main contributors
• Energy efficiency,
adopting cleaner fuels &
renewable energy key levers
for mitigation
Source: Report of Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, May 2007
Climate Change – Indian Facts
Set to increase 3 folds from
1990 to 2020 (3000 million
tons of CO2 equivalent)
Source: Govt. of India, Initial National
Communication to UNFCC, June 2004
http://warmgloblog.blogspot.in/2012_02_01_archive.html
India- Electricity Generation
Total generation, in GWh
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Total generation, in GWh
2000
2010
2020
Impact of growth in demand on
Environment
Global Power Sector





Global GDP projected to grow at 3.4% annually till
2030
Emerging economies like China and India
projected to grow by 8 – 10%
Developed economies currently take lion’s share in
energy consumption
A fourth of the world’s population lives in darkness

Increase in net electricity consumption by
2015: 42%

New generation capacity required by 2030:
1,600 GW
(5,087 GW including replacement capacity)
Twin threats:

Inadequate and insecure supply of energy
sources

Environmental harm due to over-consumption
of polluting fuels
ENERGY GROWTH IN INDIA


Strong Correlation between per
Capita GDP and per Capita
Electricity Consumption.
Forecasts Point Towards a
Robust GDP Growth over the
next 3 to 5 decades.
http://www.barc.gov.in/rcaindia/4_5.html
Source: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/24/eminvesting-check-out-the-grid/#axzz2QPfwAfnI
Country’s Energy Scenario – A Quick Recap

Acute shortage of Power at
present.
Total Energy Production

Energy Shortage was 10.3%

Peak Shortage was 12.9%

Power Generation Capacity
addition is far below the expected
(only 54000 MW against expected
62000 MW during 2007 – 2012)
We need to urgently ensure power
availability to sustain our GDP growth.
Total Energy Consumption