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Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change Tejal Kanitkar Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies TISS, Mumbai with modifications/additions by D.Raghunandan Delhi Science Forum/ All India Peoples Science Network Paper presented at and incorporating recommendations of AIPSN Workshop on “Energy Mix for India 2035” Dec 2012 Work done in collaboration with Prabir Purkayastha (DSF) & T.Jayaraman (TISS) Outline • • • • Rights based approach to development Defining the right to energy The energy-emissions linkage Carbon budgets – entitlements and actual realizable carbon space • Energy within constraints of costs, emissions, and resources – Energy Model Right to Energy If energy is a pre-requisite for human development – not just economic development – while planning future development, one should also plan for some minimum energy per capita commensurate with human well-being This per capita energy can of course be aggregated for each country How to meet this minimum energy requirement subject to emission constraints is the key question for future energy and emissions trajectory Development Indicators – Context for India Per Capita Per Capita Per Capita Per Per Capita Countries Energy Electricity Installed Capita GNI at PPP (2007) Consumption Consumption Capacity Emissions ($) (kgoe) (kWhr) (kW/person) (tCO2) HDI (2010) India 2,870 529 452 0.13 1.4 0.52 China 5,640 1,484 2,332 0.48 5 0.66 South Africa 9,660 2,784 4,944 0.85 9 0.59 UK 36,270 3,465 6,123 1.31 8.8 0.85 US 46,740 7,759 13,638 3.24 19 0.90 World 10,203 1,821 2,875 0.61 (2006) 4.6 - India has a large development deficit that it needs to address India: aggregate energy trends 1985 2010 Population (million) 765.1 1150 Energy use (EJ) 10.8 28 Electricity use (Billion units) 157 811 Share of energy imports 8% ~30% % of hh un-electrified Not known 46 Renewable power installed capacity (excl large hydro) 0 17,297 MW Development vs. Constraints Value Employ • Employment in agri. disproportionate to added ment contribution to GDP as % (% of • need planned growth in industry; growth of of GDP total) rural enterprises Agri. 16% 56% • significant infrastructure growth planned in Ind. 27% 19% next two decades Services 57% 25% • Concerns: environment, climate change constraint on emissions constraint on fossil fuels • Also Constraints on: • availability and use of land and water • availability of mineral resources domestically • renewable energy potential • availability of finance Understanding energy-economy-environment linkages crucial! Energy as part of right to development • development measured not just in GDP growth • necessary to consider other parameters to capture development e.g. life expectancy, infant mortality, etc. • Unfortunately, Energy Access not one of the 8 MDGs --- insufficient effort invested by civil society in this, now even Rio+20 come and gone! HDI vs. Energy Consumption Life Expectancy vs. Energy Consumption Infant Mortality vs. Energy Consumption Targets for Energy Use 2035 – (1) • India should target levels of human development comparable to mid-level developed countries • Portugal, the best amongst these – 4860 kWh/person • Informally also Govt projections • given current levels of technology, in BAU mode, this is perhaps reasonable – may change in the future • Effect of late development • High carbon energy – low cost • Low carbon energy – high cost • Need carbon space to achieve energy equity Global Emissions To limit temp. rise to 2 deg. C with 50% probability 658 GtC from 1850 to 2050 of which 332 GtC already emitted (50%) What is left? 326 GtC For 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C 207 GtC is left Climate Change Mitigation and the Global Carbon Budget • The world has only 326 GtC more • Ambitious climate change deal a necessity • Equity should be at the focal point of any new deal that involves all countries • No acceptable schema yet • Distribution of remaining carbon budget (cumulative emissions) increasing or cutting according to ”fair shares” of per capita entitlements (TISS-DSF is one such Schema Global Carbon Budget Schema • modeling shows 2 deg C achievable • A1 sharp cuts (no negative emissions, and allowing for 1970 cut-off year for historical emissions: huge concession) • interestingly single framework so dear to US, but still incorporating equity and CBDR&RC • large DCs (China, India, Brazil, SA etc 20 nations) must peak and then reduce on differential time-table • India peaks around 2035-40; 70-80 GtC budget Entitlements for A1 and non-A1 countries based on 2000 population Annex-I Non-Annex-I Total EntitleContribution Future ments – to stock – entitlements 1850-2050 1850-2009 – 2010-2050 (GtC) (GtC) (GtC) 133 245 -112 525 658 86 331 438 326 • These are entitlements not actual space • Negative emissions not possible • Even if Annex-I emit zero between 2010-2050, Non-Annex-I are left with 326 GtC (112 GtC less than what they are owed) Dividing the actual carbon space Potential actual share- 2010-2050 Future Potential actual (Dividing future total budget entitlements share- 20101850 2050 (TISSBasis, Non- – 2010based on 2000 2050 (GtC) DSF model) LUCF population) Annex-I NonAnnex-I -112 50 65 438 271 261 Total 326 321 326 Actual Space for India & Other Countries Potential actual share (2010-2050) 1850 basis, non- Future entitlements [GtC] – TISS-DSF LUCF – 2010-2050 (GtC) model USA -65 18 EU -35 14 RussianFed. -11 6 Japan 0 4 Australia -2 2 Canada -4 2 OtherAnnexI 4 3 China 103 87 India 103 68 Brazil 16 7 SouthAfrica 1 2 Indonesia 20 10 Mexico 7 2 SouthKorea 2 2 OtherEE 23 18 RotW 163 75 Total 326 321 Potential actual share 2010-2050 (based on 2000 population) 16 26 7 7 0 3 7 65 55 10 3 10 7 3 20 88 326 Electricity Use Needed to achieve Human Development Electricity Supply Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Biomass Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Resource Constraints Emissions Constraints Cost Constraints Fuel Mix, Cost Implications,Various Scenarios can be studied Example: Power Sector • Current (2008) per capita electricity use in India is ~490 kWh/person/year • Low levels of access, low reliability of supply • Target: Portugal - 4,860 kWh/year; 4500 kWh/year used in model Power Sector Baseline Snapshot - 2008 Projections for the Future Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh/person) 2008 Energy vs. GDP per Capita regression @ 8% GDP Growth 490 1684 IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth 2598 IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth 3219 MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth 3210 MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth Benchmarked against Energy Consumption per Capita in Portugal 4042 4500 Energy Requirements • Right to development Energy requirements Total Electricity Generation 1E+13 4500 kWh/person 9E+12 8E+12 7E+12 13686 kWh/person kWh 6E+12 13686 kWh/person 13686 kWh/person 5E+12 4E+12 1450 kWh/person 3E+12 2E+12 638 kWh/person 1E+12 0 2009 2020 USA-Total India-Total 2035 100% Renewables Diesel 90% Hydro 80% 70% Nuclear Natural Gas 60% 50% 40% Coal 30% 20% 10% 0% 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Average Plant Capacity Factors India USA Hydro 38% 37% Coal 70% 72% Diesel 16% 9% Gas 58% 25% Nuclear 47% 91% Wind 19% 26% SHP 25% 76% Biomass 49% 62% Solar PV 15% 18% CSP 20% 18% MSW 31% 37% Petroleum Geothermal 100% Diesel 90% Renewables Hydro 80% Natural Gas Nuclear 70% 60% 50% 40% Coal 30% 20% 10% 0% 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Constraints on Supply - India Coal 600,000 Nuclear 63,000 Gas 100,000 Large Hydro 150,000 Diesel 40,000 Wind 100,000 ? - 800,000? SHP 15,000 CSP -- Solar PV -- Biomass 50,000 MSW 30,000 Cost Constraints Coal Nuclear Gas Biomass Hydro Gasp Diesel Wind CSP SPV Sources:TERI Energy Roadmap, NCAER-CGE 2010 (Rs./kWh) 2.1 5.1 2.5 4 2.5 3 7 5.5 13 9 Annual 2030 Growth/Redu (Rs./kWh) ction in tariff 3.4 1.13% 4.2 -0.45% 4.35 1.39% 3.54 -0.30% 3.25 0.66% 4.85 1.21% 15.4 2.00% 4.5 -0.49% 9.6 -1.5% 6 -2% 8E+09 Power Plants – Existing vs. New Stock 7E+09 6E+09 MkWh/year 5E+09 4E+09 3E+09 2E+09 1E+09 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Coal - Exisiting Supply Coal - Eleventh Plan Hydro - Existing Supply Hydro - Eleventh Plan Natural Gas - Existing Supply Natural Gas - Eleventh Plan Nuclear - Existing Supply Nuclear - Eleventh Plan Total Demand Scenarios for 4 Carbon Budgets USA India Total Budget Budget for Total Budget Budget for (GtC) Power (GtC) Power 2010-2050 Sector (GtC) 2010-2050 Sector (GtC) Scenario - I: No restrictions on emissions for India and USA between 2010 and 2035 Scenario -II: Equitable Allocation of Carbon Space within the global budget Scenario-III: Annex-I reduce emissions according to their Copenhagen Pledges, NonAnnex-I have to bridge the gap Scenario - IV: Budget for USA proposed by National Academy of Sciences, USA; Highly curtailed Budget for Non-Annex-I -- -- -- -- 18 6 68 24 35 12 30 11 54 19 21 7 Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Electricity Generated (kWh) Scenario –I for India 1E+13 9E+12 8E+12 7E+12 6E+12 5E+12 4E+12 3E+12 2E+12 1E+12 0 Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV 0 Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 CSP 2027 Biomass 2026 2025 4E+12 2024 5E+12 SHP 2023 6E+12 Wind 2022 7E+12 2021 8E+12 Nuclear 2020 8E+12 Gas 2019 9E+12 Diesel 2018 SolarPV Hydro 2017 Coal 2016 0 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 0 2015 1E+12 2014 1E+12 2014 2E+12 2013 3E+12 2013 4E+12 2012 7E+12 2012 8E+12 2011 8E+12 2011 9E+12 2010 2009 5E+12 Electricity Generated (kWh) 9E+12 2010 2009 7E+12 Electricity Generated (kWh) 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Electricity Generated (kWh) 6E+12 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 CSP 2027 Biomass 2026 2025 2024 SHP 2023 Wind 2022 2021 Nuclear 2020 2019 Gas 2018 Diesel 2017 2016 Hydro 2015 Coal 2014 2013 1E+13 2012 2011 2010 2009 Electricity Generated (kWh) 1E+13 1E+13 7E+12 6E+12 5E+12 4E+12 3E+12 2E+12 1E+13 SolarPV 9E+12 6E+12 5E+12 4E+12 3E+12 3E+12 2E+12 2E+12 1E+12 1E+12 0 Impacts on Cost of Electricity India Carbon Budget for the Power Sector (35% of total between 20102035) [GtC] Cost of Energy in 2035 ($/kWh) -@ PPP Cost of Energy in 2035 ($/kWh) - @ Rs.45/$ Scenario - I -- 0.509 0.181 Scenario -II 24 0.668 0.237 Scenario-III 11 0.978 0.348 Scenario - IV 7 1.063 0.378 Financial Burden on India vs. USA India (@ Market Prices) Scenario – I Scenario –II Scenario-III Scenario – IV India (@ PPP) Scenario - I Scenario -II Scenario-III Scenario - IV Total Cost of Electricity Generation between (20102035) [Trillion US$] Total Cost of Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion USD] 13 16 28 33 Total Cost of Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion USD] 38 46 79 92 Additional Burden As Compared to Scenario-I Additional Burden As Compared to Scenario-I -3 15 20 Additional Burden As Compared to Scenario-I -8 41 54 How much Energy do we actually need? • projections such as these usually account for energy efficiencies, some demand management • but in a sense, even if these are not BAU in energy terms, they are possibly BAU in terms of development pathways and paradigms • low-carbon development and tackling climate change in a sustained and sustainable manner will call for radical shifts in the things we do, the way we do things, in lifestyles --- with serious impact on energy use Reducing Energy Requirement 700 Mtoe reduction possible power generation capacity could be reduced by 128 GW ( 2001 cap.) “National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007 improve end-use efficiencies (300 Mtoe by 2031) advanced coal, gas based generation tech’s. (122Mtoe) increase renewables, nuclear (72 Mtoe) increase efficiencies in transport (190 Mtoe) Energy Efficiencies in Transport “National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007 • energy use projected to increase >10 times to 460 Mtoe by 2031 • most reduction through normal tech. upgradation • road-to-rail modal shift for freight and passenger • private to public transport shift Evolving Mexico offer! Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – High Coal Scenario Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total Total Energy Supplied (%) 66% 12% 2% 3% 11% 6% 100% Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh) 2006 365 61 91 334 182 3040 Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed) 70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26 Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 327 59 43 15 100 80 625 Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.) 485 78 63 31 176 123 956 Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – Low Coal, High Renewables, Low Nuclear Scenario Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total Total Energy Supplied (%) 45% 15% 2% 3% 14% 21% 100% Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh) 1368 456 61 91 426 638 3040 Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed) 70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26 Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 223 74 43 15 128 280 764 Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.) 289 102 63 31 234 445 1163 Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – Low Coal, High Renewables, Medium Nuclear Scenario Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total Total Energy Supplied (%) 45% 14% 2% 7% 13% 19% 100% Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh) 1368 426 61 213 395 578 3040 Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed) 70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26 Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 223 69 43 35 119 254 743 Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.) 289 94 63 78 215 405 1144 Energy target in Low Carbon Pathway • if India takes on energy/emissions reduction as part of an equitable global deal… • ---and adopts low-C development pathways Dream Projections for 2035 (with improvements in conversion efficiency) 2010 2035 Population (in billions) 1.15 1.52 Primary Energy (EJ) 28.4 ~87 Primary Energy per capita (GJ) 24.7 ~57 Electricity Use (in billion units) 811 3040 Electricity Use per capita (units) 705 2000 • reduce coal use from 60-66% to 40%? Towards a Low Carbon Pathway • promote domestic energy equity as specific goal not just as “trickle down” supposition • demand: “electricity for all” and “equitable access to modern cooking energy” • so some sectors of economy and sections of society consume less, so others can get more • address urbanization: rapid urbanization is much spoken about, but why is it valorized? Some data suggests 40% more emissions! • 50% rural pop. even in 2050!! Should we not build on this? • new production-distribution patterns Thank you