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Carter Kruse
Mrs. Anthony
English 2 Honors
9, January 2017
Probability That Extraterrestrials are Real, Higher than You Think
The Universe, it is ever expanding since the beginning of time. About 13.7 billion years
ago is when the Big Bang, the beginning of the Universe, occurred. Since the Universe has no
end, it is therefore infinite. That does not mean that there are an infinite amount of objects in that
space. For example, a line goes on forever, but may only have one point. That is our universe,
but with many more points. We have yet to fully understand it, but so far, our understanding
gives us enough information to safely say, there is probable life elsewhere. How can there not
be? Just a little common sense tells us so.
For one, we know there is life, because Earth exists and almost everything on Earth is
alive. There are nine major planets in our galaxy alone, including Pluto. There are an estimated
100 billion galaxies in the universe, and up to 400 billion stars just in the Milky Way Galaxy.
That leaves about 99,999,999,999 galaxies left for the human race to discover. On Earth, the
amino acid is the base of life. To get an amino acid, all you need is methane, water, ammonia,
oxygen poor environment, and energy such as lighting. We know that the elements just listed are
the base elements for other planets, all the other planets need is an oxygen poor environment and
energy. They will then have amino acids, which are basis of life, which will in turn give that
planet life. That may sound easy, and for the people that think it is, they say, “If life existed on
other planets, we would have found it by now. Earth is the only planet capable of supporting
life” (“Extraterrestrial”). That is false, and Julie Paque negates this is one sentence, “that does
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not mean astronomers can find life with ease, however” (“Life”). With common sense we know
Julie Paque is correct in that Astronomers have given more than enough evidence to support the
probability of life. There is a one in 10 billion trillion chance that there is no other life, and in our
galaxy alone, there is a one in 60 billion chance for life, and that is being conservative.
There was an astronomer named Dr. Frank Drake, he developed an equation in 1961 to
tell us the probability of intelligent life. The Equation is N=R*-fp-n-fl-fi-fc-L. N is the number of
civilizations in the Milky Way, which give off detectable electromagnetic emissions. Meaning
there may be life, because things like microwaves give off these types of emissions, as well as
the sun and certain chemicals. R is the rate of formation of stars that are suitable for life. Fp is
the fraction of stars with planetary systems. A planetary system is like what we have, planets
orbiting the sun due to its gravitational pull, and the sun gives our planet life, which means it is
giving those planets around it life as well. N is the number of planets per solar system that are
suitable for life. Fl is the fraction of planets where life actually appears. Fi is the fraction of
planets where intelligent life appears. Fc is the fraction of life that release detectable signs of life
into space, space junk. Space junk is manmade debris, in this case extraterrestrial made debris
that orbits the planet. L is the length of time those signals are released into space. This equation
only estimates the number of technological civilizations in our galaxy. His calculations gave us
the information that up to 3500 technologically advanced civilizations could exist in the Milky
Way Galaxy. (Citation for this paragraph)??
The biggest factor in Drakes equation is L, time. L is the most important because,
according to NASA, one fifth of the exoplanets, a planet that orbits a star/sun other than ours, are
found in the habitable zone of their sun, which is a lot. That means that there may have been
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more habitable planets than at the moment, say five million years ago. Which may give us
evidence that life has existed, meaning that there is a 100% possibility that other life exists.
From what I have read, I think the key to life are all the exoplanets, a planet that orbits a
star / sun other than ours. Lonnie Shekhtman said that scientists “found loads of exoplanets”
(Shekhtman). According to NASA one fifth of the exoplanets are found in the habitable zone of
their sun. Those are just the planets of the moment,
Eliminate all 1st and 3rd person (I, we, our, etc.)
Dr. Frank Drake and Astronomer Woodruff Sullivan created a new equation, modeled
after the first, for all of extraterrestrial life, not just technologically advanced. It is A=Nast-fbt. A
is the number of technological species that have ever existed. Nast is the number of habitable
planets in a volume of the universe. Fbt is the likelihood of a technological species arising on one
of the planets. This new equation gave us the information that, “about 20 percent of all stars host
planets in the life-friendly, "habitable zone," where liquid water could exist on a world's
surface.”Cite
There is one more equation, it was created in 2010 by Claudio Maccone. It is called the
Statistical Drake Equation (SDE). It is much more complex than the classical drake equation
(CDE). This equation is much more recent and reliable with the new information we have
gathered over the years. After all of the variables have been entered into the equation, we got the
answer of 4,950 civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy. That is 1450 more civilizations than that
of the CDE, and a 41.4% increase.
Let us look at some of these possible civilizations, 3 earthlike planets in
particular. They all orbit a star called TRAPPIST-1, and the name came from the telescope that
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found it, TRAnsiting Planets and PlanetsImals Small Telescope. This telescope is able to see the
type of planet, features, perspective, shape, size, and distance from its host star. After all of this
was taken into consideration for all three planets, it was concluded that all three of these planets
are very earthlike and have a high possibility of life. Not on the whole planet though, all three
planets are tidally locked, meaning one side is always facing the sun and the other is not. With
this, there is something called the Goldilox zone, the part of the planet that is not facing the sun,
or facing away, so it is warm but not scorching, and cool but not frozen. It is just like the
porridge in the middle that Goldilocks ate the one that is just right. This is the spot on the planet
that the earthlike life would exist. All paragraphs should have at least one citation
The star that the planets orbit is called an Utra Cool Dwarf Star. This star itself is 1/8 the
size of our sun, similar to Jupiter. It being a smaller star is very good, “When it comes to
detecting the kind of atmosphere that would support life as it’s known, smaller stars are better”
(Feltman). That is very good, but what makes these three planets so viable is that its star is not
only small, but also similar to earth’s, just like the planets are similar to earth itself. Rachel
Feltman said, “The holy grail for an earthlike planet is one with a similar star” (Feltman). This is
why these planets are such good candidates for life. The best thing about this discovery is what
Adam Burgasser of University of California at San Diego pointed out, “If earth-like planets
around these stars turnout to be common, there may be many more habitable planets out there
than current estimates predict” (Feltman). This widens the already huge scope for the possibility
of extraterrestrial life.
There is one more planet that needs to be looked at; it is the closest one to us out in our
solar system. It is Proxima b, it orbits a low mass red dwarf star a.k.a an M-class dwarf. The
dwarf star is known as Proxima Centauri. Proxima b is the closet planet to us the universe which
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in turn makes it a lot easier to observe. It has a rocky terrestrial surface just like earth, and it is in
the habitable zone of its star, a certain distance from the star that would have a temperature like
ours making life possible, which means it could contain liquid water. It is also close enough that
robotic exploration is possible, only 4.2 light years away or 92.96 million miles. Proxima b is 5%
closer to its sun that we, earth, are to our sun. The only reason that life is possible is because
Proxima Centauri is cooler (less hot) than our sun, which allows for the planet to be closer. At its
distance and heat produced by the sun, it is estimated that the planet’s atmosphere is about 86104 degrees Fahrenheit. The scientists and astronomers surveilling the planet are also tracking its
Doppler wobble, back and forth rotation of the planet. This is caused by gravitational pull, and
the way that it is wobbling means that there is another planet near and this one could have the
perfect conditions for life.
You must cite other information besides direct quotes. I went over in class. I like that
you put your ideas into easily understood sentences. This paper sounds like YOU---I like that
very much. Keep going Carter—nice start!
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Sources Cited
“Extraterrestrial Life”. 22 Jan 2016, SIRS Issues Researcher
Feltman, Rachel. "3 Earth-Like Planets might be Scientists' Best Chance at Detecting.."
Washington Post, 03 May 2016, pp. A.16. SIRS Issues Researcher.
NASA. "Preparing for Alien Life." phys.org, edited by NASA, 11 Nov. 2014. Accessed 10 Nov.
2014.
Netzley, Patricia D. "Area 51." The Greenhaven Encyclopedia of Paranormal Phenomena.
Greenhaven Press, 2006, pp. 36-37. Opposing Viewpoints in Context, Accessed 10 Jan.
2017.
Netzley, Patricia D. "Center for the Study of Extraterrestrial Intelligence." The Greenhaven
Encyclopedia of Paranormal Phenomena. Greenhaven Press, 2006, pp. 66-67. Opposing
Viewpoints in Context, Accessed 11 Jan. 2017.
Netzley, Patricia D. "Mack, John E. (1929–2004)." The Greenhaven Encyclopedia of
Paranormal Phenomena, Greenhaven Press, 2006, p. 186. Opposing Viewpoints in
Context, Accessed 11 Jan. 2017.
“Life Probably Exists on Other Planets”. Paranormal Phenomena. Edited by Brenda Stalcup et
al., San Diego, Greenhaven Press, 2001.
Strickland, Ashley. "Closest Potentially Habitable Planet to our Solar System found." CNN Wire
Service, 24 Aug 2016, pp. n/a. SIRS Issues Researcher. Accessed 10 Jan. 2017.
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Shekhtman, Lonnie. "Probability we'Re the Only Intelligent Life Ever? really Low.." Christian
Science Monitor, 01 May 2016, pp. n/a. SIRS Issues Researcher. Accessed 10 Jan. 2017.
New one below ask Mrs. Anthony about it. To site my source
http://www.space.com/32793-intelligent-alien-life-probability-high.html