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global perspective on socialeconomic transformation
by gabor karsai
two parallel worlds
polarisation (two sides of globalisation)
• climate change, economic crisis, increasing
gap between rich and poor, loss of meaning
vs
• social networking, travel, cultural experience,
meeting people, rise of the middle class
uncertainty about the future
megatrends
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globalisation & deregulation
urbanisation & migration
climate change & sustainability
population & lifespan growth
localisation & re-regulation
other ideas to watch
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avatar assistants
biomimicry
clean coal
comfort eating
contextual deficit
diminishing use of email
decline of voice communication
electrification of transport
facial recognition on mobile
phones
gene hacking
holographic telepresence
increasing complexity
local living
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mobile money
peak water
peer-to-peer landing/giving
quantum computing
reverse migration
self-tracking
smart infrastructure
slow education
shift from products to
experiences
• ultra-efficient solar
• value redefinition
• voluntary simplicity
european strategy and policy analysis
system (espas)
greater uncertainties but broader opportunities
in the next two decades
• an age of convergence vs conflicting
nationalisms
• an age of scarcity vs human development
• an age of multilateralism vs fragmentation
the empowerment of individuals
• a global human community but a growing
expectations gap
• converging values and demands but risks of
extremism
• demands for political participation but
dangers of populism
greater human development but
inequality, climate change and scarcity
• greater stress on sustainable development
against a backdrop of greater resource scarcity
and persistent poverty, compounded by the
consequences of climate change
• a rising middle class but persistent poverty
and inequality
• climate change and scarcities: challenges to
human development
• human security: protecting citizens
a polycentric world
but a growing governance gap
• emergence of a more polycentric world
characterised by a shift of power away from
states
• a power shift to asia but greater uncertainty
• diffusion of power but dangers of fragmentation
• global initiatives but a governance gap
• growing governance gaps as the mechanisms for
inter-state relations fail to respond adequately to
global public demands
transformation
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scenarios (rudy lohmeyer):
global collapse
management takeover (china, corporations)
transformation (social, economic, cultural, mental
etc.) into global participatory governance
+ crunch-crunch
• change, transformation vs revolution
• r-evolution
why do not we act to avoid collapse?
daniel gilbert (psychologist at harvard): how we
respond to threats (terrorism vs climate
change; child molesters vs obesity)
- intentional
- immoral
- imminent
- instantaneous
conditions of transformation
• identity and energy
• gap between imaginary and real
• fears vs hopes (fear vs love)
conditions of transformation
identity and energy
• question of identity: who are we?
- humans are gods (gods are humans)
- humans are machines (machines are humans)
- humans are animals (animals are humans)
- humans are systems (systems are humans)
- humans are cooperators (ants, termites, bees)
- humans are e.t.’s (e.t.’s are humans)
clash of identities
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man
husband
father
car-driver
hungarian
director
vegetarian
TV-watcher
thinker
tourist
iPad user
etc.
human
• where lies the boundary of our
identity?
• shall I be more or less?
• more means tendency of
exclusivism
• less means giving space to the
other
conditions of transformation
tension between imaginary and real
• lack of alignment between
- thoughts and actions
- beliefs and behaviours
- theories and practices
• become practitioners
• how to get ignited?
new paradigm
metaphysically
• we are in this together: us vs me; collective vs
individual
• individualism vs communism vs ?
• „individual in community”
• interrelations not atomic substances
• each entity is unique but interrelated
new paradigm
historically & evolutionarily
• where lies the power of sovereignty?
- from tribe to clan
- from clan to people
- from people to nation
- from nation to international community
- from international community to one humanity
• us vs them
new paradigm
politically
• end of blocks
• daniel bell: liberal in politics (liberty), socialist in
economy (equality), conservative in culture
(fraternity)
• barrett values centre: „beliefs divide, values
unite”
• new institutions are needed
• new leadership paradigm
beliefs divide, values unite
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caring
family
humor/ fun
honesty
friendship
responsibility
compassion
respect
accountability
positive attitude
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family
caring
honesty
responsibility
humor/ fun
accountability
respect
positive attitude
integrity
friendship
what is the difference?
security, prosperity, peace
vs
peace, prosperity, security
new paradigm
economically
• sustainability
• good economy or new economy
• change the fundamentals: human behaviour
• takers vs leavers
• „economics of enough”
• „economics of abundance”
• „small is beautiful”
• beyond the three sectors: public (government),
private (business), social (ngo’s)
examples
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ashoka innovators for the public (drayton)
b corps (houlahan, gilbert)
bpeace (businesses for peace)
business as an agent of world benefit (bawb)
conscious capitalism (sisodia, mackey)
plan b (branson)
new paradigm
mentally & spiritually
• institutions are created by and composed of
people
• new institutions mean „new people”
• inside-out approach
• aligned values and behaviours, authenticity
• participation
• action- and solution-oriented approach
a new world is emerging
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can humans be like bees, ants and termites?
„think globally, act locally” („glocal”)
marc gafni, author: think locally, act locally
do your part, the rest will be taken care of
but do your part
• „when i change, the whole world changes”
• expansion of love and compassion