Download ex-ante

Thomas Böcker
The effectiveness of policy measures to control pesticide applications depends
on the farmer’s reaction to such changes. This highlights the relevance of exante analyses to identify effective measures. However, current analysis
approaches are lacking, because aggregated variables or insufficient
effectiveness of pesticides are used. For the example of German maize
production, we present a detailed output damage control approach to identify the
economically optimal herbicide application strategy, making use of weed spread
data, herbicide effectiveness data and economic variables. Building upon this
methodology, an implementation of pesticide applications into larger farm
models is possible to better analyse pesticide’s policy measures.
The effectiveness of policy measures to control pesticide applications depends
on the farmer’s reaction to such changes. This highlights the relevance of exante analyses to identify effective measures. This paper provides a new and
sufficiently detailed methodology to represent technology of pesticide
application and related choices. We present an output damage control approach
to identify the economically optimal herbicide application strategy for German
maize production. Contrary to current approaches, it makes use of weed spread
data and herbicide effectiveness data. The model is suitable for implementation
into larger farm models for better analysis of pesticide policy measures.
Till
The German action program implementing the EU-Nitrates directive was
revised in 2017 as a reaction to failing existing environmental goals. Its detailed
environmental outcome and cost-efficiency at farm level has, to our knowledge,
not been analyzed yet. We combine a bio-economic, mixed-integer, single farm
optimization model with results from a plant modeling framework. The models
are parameterized for typical farms in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Our
results indicate substantial reduction of different nitrogen compounds as well as
combined benefits for not targeted emissions like methane. Abatement costs
come close to estimated minimal costs, hinting at a cost-efficient policy at farm
level.
The German implementation of the EU-Nitrates directive is revised in 2017. Its
detailed environmental outcome and cost-efficiency at farm level has not been
analyzed yet. We combine a unique, dynamic, bio-economic, mixed-integer,
single farm optimization model with results from a plant modeling framework
adapted to this task in terms of Nitrogen representation. The models are
parameterized for typical farms in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Our
results indicate a substantial reduction of nitrogen compounds as well as benefits
for not-targeted emissions like methane. Abatement costs come close to
estimated minimal costs, hinting at a cost-efficient policy at farm level.
Mgeni
Promoting rural employment, by creating new jobs in rural areas and
upgrading the existing ones, could be a pathway to reduce rural
poverty. However, many countries in the developing world including
Tanzania, lack the required capacities and data to provide evidencebased policymaking. This paper assesses the performance of
sunflower value chain on employment for rural economy in Tanzania,
using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) at the village level. Findings
show that performance of the sunflower value chain in Tanzania in
terms of rural employment is determined by the type of jobs created at
each node of the chain.
Introducing technological innovations in rural value chains could
contribute to reduce rural poverty in developing countries. There is
still strong need for evidence-based assessment of policy
interventions. This paper evaluates the impact of the introduction of a
mechanical oil extractor within the sunflower value chain in Tanzania.
A comparison of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) before and after
the intervention and a CGE analyses for a semi-arid and a semi-humid
region is performed. Results show that the share of households under
the poverty threshold decreases slightly following the creation of
higher paying jobs and increased market revenues for sunflowers.
Biobased products have the potential to reduce the dependency of our
economy on fossil resources. However, consumer acceptance and
market success varies highly between product categories. Hence, this
study investigates why these products are perceived differently. By
conducting a discrete choice experiment, german consumers (N=144)
made purchasing decisions between biobased and oilbased products
within different categories (medicines, cosmetics, plastics), and
individual consumer attitudes were measured. The results show that
risk and benefit perceptions significantly vary between product
categories which in turn affects the likelihood of purchasing decision.
In general, low benefit perceptions of biobased products should be
addressed by companies.
Bio-based products have the potential to reduce the dependency of our
economy on fossil resources. However, market penetration varies
highly between product categories. This paper analyzes differences in
consumer’s risk and benefit perception between product categories. In
a discrete choice experiment, German consumers (N=144) make
purchasing decisions between bio- and oil-based products for
medicines, cosmetics, and plastics. Results show that risk and benefit
perceptions vary significantly (and independently) between product
categories. The likelihood of purchasing cosmetics is strongly affected
by the low benefit perception of bio-based products.
(think about characterizing and choosing the product categories to
reflect strong differenced with respect to certain
attributes….functionality, price, frequency of use, ‘importance’...?)
Tibor
In recent decades the Norwegian dairy industry has undergone
substantial changes and experienced extensive restructuring. Our
interest is to detect the causes and effects between the transforming
quota rules in an inter-temporal manner and developments of dairy
productivity.
Input-oriented
primal
Luenberger
total
factor
productivity index is estimated in order to observe the potential
dynamic linkages of production decisions under the examined periods.
The differentiated mobility of dairy production rights in space implied
by three different phases of dairy quota regulation cause significantly
different productivity advancements.
In recent decades the Norwegian dairy industry has undergone
substantial changes and experienced extensive restructuring. It is
hypothesized that the level of mobility of quota rights within and
across regions impacts on productivity developments. Our aim is to
detect the influence of different quota regulations on dairy
productivity development. An input-oriented primal Luenberger total
factor productivity index is calculated for the three different quota
periods with different mobility regimes. Results reveal little impact of
the differentiated quota periods as investments depending on other
factors are more important for productivity developments.
Assignment 5_Abstract_Zhao Ding
Microcredit has been developing for several years as a service for poor
borrowers who have been suffering from financial shortage. While the optimal
structures of microcredit products are still in the air. We conducted a discrete
choice experiment in China, to determine smallholders’ willingness to pay for
microloan under the consideration of preference heterogeneity and attribute nonattendance using random parameter logit, latent class and endogenous attribute
attendance models. Results indicate smallholders are potentially willing to pay
higher interest rate, the combination of repayment schedule, interest rate, loan
size and collateral method of current programs are far from optimal given
estimates.
Even though microcredit services are widely implemented, the optimal design is
still strongly debated. This paper contributes to the debate by assessing the
preference trade-off of different microcredit attributes more comprehensively
than in previous analyses. We conduct a discrete choice experiment in China to
determine smallholders’ willingness-to-pay for microcredit services with
varying attribute combinations. A mixed logit is estimated taking preference
heterogeneity and endogenous attribute attendance into account. Results indicate
that service providers do not have to lower interest rates to attract new
customers, if the combination of repayment schedule, interest rate, loan size and
collateral method is appropriately adjusted.
Nga, Pham Thi Thanh
Climate change is expected to exacerbate negative impacts on the
livelihood of most rural households that are contingent largely on
agriculture. In that, flash flood and landslide, which lead to great
losses of people and property, are getting more and more concern of
researchers globally. In this context, an intensive research in order to
estimate vulnerability level of smallholder farmers to these hazards
was carried out, applying the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI).
This survey collected data on socio-demographics, livelihood
strategies, social networks, health, food, water, hazard impacts and
climate variability from 405 households in Yen Bai province, one of
the poor provinces frequently affected by flash floods and landslides.
The final result indicated that food is the most vulnerable component
under the impacts of flash floods and landslides.
Due to climate change, flash floods and landslides increasingly
threaten farm households and consequently receive rising attention by
researchers as well. The objective of this paper is to estimate
vulnerability to these hazards of smallholder farmers in the Yen Bai
province, Vietnam. We apply the Livelihood Vulnerability Index
(LVI) collecting data on livelihood strategies, social networks, health,
food, water, hazard impacts and climate variability from 405
households. High availability of food and water before the events and
functioning social networks decrease most strongly the vulnerability
of the households.
Social vulnerability to natural and climate-related hazards is dynamic
over time and space. However, the assessment to assess the dynamic
of vulnerability particularly in urban coastal area is still lacking. This
research aims to examine vulnerability dynamic of coastal
communities in Jakarta, Indonesia by applying adaptation measures
namely dyke, reservoir, and relocation as trajectories of the transition.
Empirical data collection is conducted through structured interviews
to 441 households and semi-structured interviews to government and
non-government officers. Research finds cognitive process and lack of
resilience of communities and lack of community participatory in
adaptation planning process are the key factors causing whether a
household become more or less vulnerable.
Social vulnerability to natural and climate-related hazards is a
dynamic process of increasing concern. The assessment of such
vulnerability and its determinants, particularly in urban coastal areas,
is still rare. This research examines the vulnerability dynamics of
coastal communities in Jakarta, Indonesia, in the context of
introducing a dyke, a reservoir, and household relocation as
hypothetical situations. Structured interviews with 441 households and
semi-structured interviews with relevant institutions are conducted.
Results show that risk perception and behavior lack of community
participation in adaptation planning process are key factors causing
social vulnerability to rise.
Siranush Ghukasyan
The promotion of agricultural development and food self-sufficiency
is a declared policy doctrine in Russia and is decided at the federal
level. Russia is a member of the WTO and faces constraints in using
extensive federal support instruments. However, in Russia the
different types of regions have different rights and obligations towards
the federal government while at the same time enjoying some degrees
of freedom in the choice and implementation of specific policy
instruments and budgetary decisions. By digging into state and
regional budgetary transfers to support agriculture in five Russian
regions, the study reveals a lack of synchronization in actions leading
to trade distortion and therefore potentially to a violation of WTO
commitments.
The promotion of agricultural development and food self-sufficiency
is a declared policy objective of the federal Russian government.
However, different hierarchical levels of regions enjoy degrees of
freedom in the choice and implementation of agricultural support
instruments and corresponding budgetary decisions if no budget is
requested from the federal government. This paper assesses if this
regional regulatory freedom may lead to potential violations of
Russia’s commitments to the WTO. State and regional budgetary
transfers on agricultural support from five Russian regions reveal that
indeed, there is currently no mechanism ensuring Russia’s WTO
obligations at the regional level.
Felix
Structural change in the rural labor market is necessary for the
expansion of the biomass sector. It leads to reallocation of productive
resources or employment of underutilized resources. However, there is
no empirical research, which shows a structural change in the rural
labor market in Western Africa. We use national cross-section
household survey data from Ghana and Nigeria for analysis.
Employment options and migration decision of the rural population is
use as major indicators. Results indicate that, highest out-migration is
from the agricultural sector. Services sector is important for both
current and return migrants for employment and income in both
countries.
Establishing new economic activities in rural Africa implies a
corresponding structural flexibility in the rural labor market.
Necessary adjustments reallocate productive resources or employ
underutilized resources. This aims to empirically analyze changes in
rural labor markets in Western Africa filling a significant gap in
current research. We use national, cross-sectional household survey
for different points in time from Ghana and Nigeria focusing on
employment options and migration decisions of the rural population.
Results for both countries indicate that the highest out-migration
occurs from the agricultural sector. The services sector is important
for current and return migrants for employment and income.
(consider differentiating results by household types and try to develop
hypotheses for further deeper analysis on determinants)
Amrouk, ElMamoun
International cash crop prices also surged during the recent high food
price episode. Given the importance of cash crops for many net-foodimporting developing countries, as they contribute to foreign currency
reserves, we investigate the dynamic interactions between cash crop
prices and staple food prices at a global level. We compare results
from two approaches; spillover indices based on the forecast error
variance decomposition and the multivariate GARCH. Results show
the level and volatility of cash crop prices are positively influenced by
the level and volatility of staple food prices, with the interaction
effects being greater in times of high prices.
The trade-off between cash crops and staple foods has been
extensively researched at farm and national level. Analysis at
international market level is lacking, however, even though price
dynamics are highly relevant for countries’ balances of payments.
This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between cash crop
and staple food prices at a global level. Spillover indices based on
forecast error variance decomposition and a multivariate GARCH
show that the level and volatility of cash crop prices are positively
influenced by the level and volatility of staple food prices, with the
interaction effects being greater in times of high prices.
Salwa Haddad
Increasing global concerns about climate change and energy security
have been the key incentives for several countries to shift from fossil
to new bio-based economy. For this reason, the EU has established an
ambitious strategy that aims to mitigating its GHG emissions by
promoting the use of biofuels in transport sector. However, biofuels,
made from biomass, are still a subject of global debate. Recent studies
have shown that rapid expansion of this alternative energy source
might lead to a significant increase in food prices, GHG emissions and
deepen the problematic of “Food-Fuel competition” for natural
resources. This study aims to give a methodological and an empirical
comparison of MRIO and CGE trade models in assessing the potential
economic and environmental impacts of increasing EU’s biofuel
demand. Results show that in contrast to MRIO, CGE that allows for
price effect, input substitution and supply constraints, seems to be
more useful in assessing biofuels impacts.
Global concerns about climate change and energy security set
incentives for countries to shift from fossil to a bio-based economy.
For global level analysis Multiple-Region-Input-Output (MRIO) and
CGE models are currently used. Even though theoretical differences
are clear, empirical studies assessing the relevance of the
methodological choice for the results do not exist. This paper analyses
the EU’s biofuel strategy by quantifying the impact of a corresponding
increase in biofuel demand with an MRIO and a CGE using the same
database. Results show that important indicators such as GHG
emissions and land use change differ substantially between the two
models.