Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Systemic risk wikipedia , lookup
Early history of private equity wikipedia , lookup
Investment banking wikipedia , lookup
Environmental, social and corporate governance wikipedia , lookup
Interbank lending market wikipedia , lookup
Mark-to-market accounting wikipedia , lookup
Stock trader wikipedia , lookup
Private equity in the 2000s wikipedia , lookup
Private money investing wikipedia , lookup
Socially responsible investing wikipedia , lookup
QUARTERLY UPDATE – 2nd Quarter 2016 CSP Portfolio Strategies ECONOMIC & MARKET OVERVIEW ECONOMY The U.S. economy expanded more than previously thought in the first three months of 2016, but underlying trends would suggest it remained vulnerable in the face of global economic turmoil. Gross Domestic Product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter, the weakest pace in a year. This was higher than the previous estimate of 0.8%. The upward revision was due to the U.S. exporting more goods and services than previously thought. Moreover, companies spent more than initially estimated on software as well as research and development. But otherwise, the economy would appear to have lost steam as it entered its eighth year of expansion. Total business investment fell by the most in six years as the energy sector continued to suffer from depressed oil markets. Spending by U.S. consumers grew at the slowest pace in two years. Headwinds included the fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union and a strong dollar tied to investor jitters about the global economy. Greater uncertainty about the prospect for global growth and increased financial market volatility today could make U.S. businesses more cautious in hiring and investing, and could make consumers less willing to spend, both of which would weigh on growth. The Federal Reserve was debating whether to raise interest rates. It had indicated earlier this year that it could move this summer, but the likelihood of an interest rate increase has diminished due to fears that the vote in the U.K. and slower job growth in the U.S. might weigh on the overall economy. FINANCIAL MARKETS US equity markets pushed higher in the quarter, generally posting consistent gains in each month. Markets faced some turbulence right at quarter’s end as investors attempted to surmise the consequences of “Brexit” on global markets. The S&P 500 Index had managed to return to near record levels at 2100 prior to the British vote. Following the vote to exit the Index dropped to 2000, but recovered in the following days to close the quarter at 2099. Yet again, a short term shock to the market was met with a perceived buying opportunity. Despite many indications of investor anxiety and complacency, investors have shown remarkable resilience each time the risk markets have dropped in recent years. So far 2016 has continued to see more bouts of market volatility and investors have shown greater appreciation for Value stocks in general. Nonetheless, the first half of the year has been challenging in attempting to add value through asset allocation as many portfolio diversification strategies have trailed the broad benchmarks. Developed international stocks and domestic small-cap stocks have lagged results from the S&P 500 for the year, although mid cap stocks and emerging markets stocks have seen some relative improvement. Volatile interest rates and currencies continued to challenge investment managers in the bond markets and many international bonds entered the unknown territory of negative interest rates. The information and views contained on this page were prepared and compiled by Capital Market Consultants, Inc. The material has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes, is not a research report (as such term is defined by applicable law and regulations), and is not a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but there are no guarantees. QUARTERLY UPDATE – 2nd Quarter 2016 CSP Portfolio Strategies PORTFOLIO COMMENTARY Portfolio Performance: All CSP Models finished the second quarter of 2016 with positive returns for both the year and quarter. Our All Equity Model performed most strongly in the beginning of the quarter, but gave back returns in final week with the aftermath of the Brexit vote. The Bond Model’s relative performance was inverse of the Equity Model – it performed best at the end of the quarter as a risk off trade drove up the price of core assets. Equities: The June 23rd vote for Britain to leave the EU was an unexpected shock to the market, and drove down most stocks. One exception was utilities, which were up over 2% for the last week of the quarter. Our performance was aided by solid relative performance from our MFS International Value fund. Equity Model returns were also boosted by our exposure to small and midcaps, which outperformed large cap stocks for the quarter. Our bias towards growth in the large cap space was a detractor for the quarter, as value outperformed. The biggest absolute gains in global markets came from deep value sectors such as Energy, Telecom and Utilities as oil bounced back and investors looked for safety against a backdrop of global political and economic uncertainty. Fixed Income: Our fixed income positions did well for the quarter. We have been building a position in relatively stable, core holdings, which is exactly what investors wanted during the market turmoil. One weak spot was an overweight to US Dollar, which gave back some of its gains versus other currencies in the quarter. Amidst global uncertainty, investors clamored specifically for long duration Sovereigns, even willing to accept negative interest rates. Global credit also did well. Fortunately, our fixed income exposure within the models is overweight credit, allowing the models to make up for the underweight to international and duration. We remain pleased with the absolute returns and risk control being provided by our fixed income allocations. We do not believe chasing returns from long duration bonds in countries with negative interest rates is prudent for our clients, and probably adds risk instead of reducing it. The primary function of the fixed income portfolio is risk control. Consequently, we have positioned the fixed income portfolio with moderate duration and enough high quality credit exposure to produce reasonable returns without exposing our clients to undue currency, credit or interest rate risk. *Net performance reflects the maximum allowable annual fee of 1% (100 basis points). The multi-manager portfolios above reflect the hypothetical performance of Cary Street Partners model portfolios comprised with a combination of mutual funds over various time periods. The returns reflect changes made in the models since inception. However, these figures do not reflect the performance of an actual account or a group of actual accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Prospectus available upon request. QUARTERLY UPDATE – 2nd Quarter 2016 CSP Portfolio Strategies PERFORMANCE DETAILS (as of 6/30/2016) Trailing Performance (Gross) 3 Month YTD 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 5 Year Inception (11/1/09) Expense Ratio CSP All Equity 0.7 1.4 -1.0 1.8 7.6 7.5 9.9 0.79 CSP 80-20 1.1 1.8 -0.1 2.0 7.0 6.3 8.6 0.72 CSP 70-30 1.2 2.2 0.4 2.2 6.9 6.4 8.3 0.69 CSP 60-40 1.4 2.5 0.9 2.4 6.3 6.0 7.9 0.65 CSP 50-50 1.6 2.8 1.6 2.5 5.8 6.3 7.6 0.59 CSP 30-70 2.1 4.7 3.8 3.4 na na na 0.55 CSP Bond Alt 2.5 4.8 3.2 2.2 2.9 2.4 3.8 0.44 MSCI ACWI NR USD 1.0 1.2 -3.7 -1.5 6.0 5.4 7.6 Barclays Global Aggregate TR USD 2.9 9.0 8.9 0.6 2.8 1.8 2.6 3 Month YTD 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 5 Year Inception (11/1/09) Expense Ratio CSP All Equity net 1% 0.5 0.9 -2.0 0.8 6.5 6.4 8.8 0.79 CSP 80-20 net 1% 0.8 1.3 -1.1 1.0 6.0 5.3 7.5 0.72 CSP 70-30 net 1% 1.0 1.7 -0.6 1.2 5.8 5.3 7.2 0.69 CSP 60-40 net 1% 1.2 2.0 -0.1 1.4 5.3 4.9 6.8 0.65 CSP 50-50 net 1% 1.3 2.3 0.5 1.5 4.8 5.3 6.6 0.59 CSP 30-70 net 1% 1.8 4.2 2.8 2.4 na na na 0.55 CSP Bond Alt net 1% 2.2 4.3 2.2 1.2 1.8 1.4 2.7 0.44 MSCI ACWI NR USD 1.0 1.2 -3.7 -1.5 6.0 5.4 7.6 Barclays Global Aggregate TR USD 2.9 9.0 8.9 0.6 2.8 1.8 2.6 Model Trailing Performance (Net 1%) Model *Net performance reflects the maximum allowable annual fee of 1% (100 basis points). The multi-manager portfolios above reflect the hypothetical performance of Cary Street Partners model portfolios comprised with a combination of mutual funds over various time periods. The returns reflect changes made in the models since inception. However, these figures do not reflect the performance of an actual account or a group of actual accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Prospectus available upon request. QUARTERLY UPDATE – 2nd Quarter 2016 CSP Portfolio Strategies PERFORMANCE DETAILS (as of 6/30/2016) Calendar Year Performance (Gross) Model YTD 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 CSP All Equity 1.4 0.7 6.1 26.8 15.6 -4.1 CSP 80-20 1.8 0.9 6.0 20.8 13.0 -3.7 CSP 70-30 2.2 0.8 6.2 18.8 12.6 -3.3 CSP 60-40 2.5 0.8 5.5 14.9 13.1 -1.1 CSP 50-50 2.8 1.0 5.1 14.1 13.0 0.6 CSP 30-70 4.7 1.0 na na na na CSP Bond Alt 4.8 -0.3 1.8 1.2 9.1 -1.7 MSCI ACWI NR USD 1.2 -2.4 4.2 22.8 16.1 -7.3 Barclays Global Aggregate TR USD 9.0 -3.2 0.6 -2.6 4.3 5.6 Calendar Year Performance (Net 1%) Model YTD 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 CSP All Equity net 1% 0.9 -0.3 5.0 25.5 14.4 -5.0 CSP 80-20 net 1% 1.3 -0.2 4.9 19.6 11.9 -4.7 CSP 70-30 net 1% 1.7 -0.2 5.1 17.6 11.5 -4.2 CSP 60-40 net 1% 2.0 -0.2 4.5 13.8 12.0 -2.1 CSP 50-50 net 1% 2.3 0.0 4.1 12.9 11.9 -0.4 CSP 30-70 net 1% 4.2 0.0 na na na na CSP Bond Alt net 1% 4.3 -1.2 0.8 0.2 8.0 -2.6 MSCI ACWI NR USD 1.2 -2.4 4.2 22.8 16.1 -7.3 Barclays Global Aggregate TR USD 9.0 -3.2 0.6 -2.6 4.3 5.6 *Net performance reflects the maximum allowable annual fee of 1% (100 basis points). The multi-manager portfolios above reflect the hypothetical performance of Cary Street Partners model portfolios comprised with a combination of mutual funds over various time periods. The returns reflect changes made in the models since inception. However, these figures do not reflect the performance of an actual account or a group of actual accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Prospectus available upon request. QUARTERLY UPDATE – 2nd Quarter 2016 CSP Portfolio Strategies ALLOCATION DETAILS Models Last Changed on 2/29/2016 All Equity 80/20 Category Symbol Large Value JVLIX 70/30 60/40 50/50 30/70 Bond Alt Fund JHancock Disciplined Value I 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% SunAmerica Focused Div 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% FMIHX FMI Large Cap 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% JMUEX JPMorgan US Equity Instl 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% POGRX PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% TRBCX T.Rowe Blue Chip Growth 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% Mid Value MCVIX MFS Midcap Value 8% 6% 5% 4% Mid Core PCBIX Principal MidCap Institutional 8% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% FDSWX Large Core Large Growth Mid Growth Small Value Small Core TFSSX TFS Small Cap 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% VTMSX Vanguard Tax-Mngd Small Cap Adm 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% Small Growth PRDSX T.Rowe Diversified Sm Cap Growth 5% 4% 3% 3% 0% Intl Value ARTKX Artisan International Value Investor 9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Intl Core MINIX MFS International Value 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Intl Growth OIGYX Oppenheimer International Growth Y 10% 7% 7% 5% 4% Fixed - Core WACPX PIMIX OPBYX MWTIX VBILX 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 8% 9% 5% 10% 10% 10% 13% 7% 14% 14% 14% 16% 11% 20% 20% 20% 3% 4% 5% 7% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Western Asset Core Plus Bond I PIMCO Income Instl Oppenheimer Core Bond Y MetWest Total Return Bond I Vanguard Interm Bond Idx Adm Fixed - High Yield Fixed - InternationalOIBYX Oppenheimer International Bond Y Fixed - Inflation PRRIX Fixed - Short PTLDX PIMCO Low Duration Instl LDLFX Lord Abbett Short Duration Income F Fixed - Tactical ANGIX Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income Instl Alternatives TFSMX TFS Market Neutral Cash FSMXX Goldman Sachs FS Money Market FST TOTAL Dark Green is a NEW position PIMCO Real Return Instl Light Green is an INCREASED position Red is a DECREASED position The multi-manager portfolios above reflect the hypothetical performance of Cary Street Partners model portfolios comprised with a combination of mutual funds over various time periods. The returns reflect changes made in the models since inception. However, these figures do not reflect the performance of an actual account or a group of actual accounts. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Prospectus available upon request. QUARTERLY UPDATE – 2nd Quarter 2016 CSP Portfolio Strategies DISCLOSURE Cary Street Partners Holdings, LLC is a limited liability holding company that owns 100% of Cary Street Partners LLC, a registered broker-dealer and a member of FINRA and SIPC, and 100% of Cary Street Partners Investment Advisory LLC, a federally registered investment advisor. Cary Street Partners is the trade name used by two separate, registered firms providing security brokerage, insurance, and investment advisory services. Products may not be available in all jurisdictions. Please review the Cary Street Partners advisory disclosure document for a full description of our services. Also, a copy of the Investment Advisor’s ADV Part II is available upon request. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. The price of small company stocks are generally more volatile than large company stocks. Stocks may fluctuate in value and are subject to more risk than bonds or money market instruments. Shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Bonds, if held to maturity, provide a fixed rate of return and a fixed principle value. Bonds will fluctuate and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Bond prices are sensitive to interest rate changes and a rise in interest rates will cause the prices of current bonds to decline. Longer term bonds typically are more sensitive to interest changes than shorter-term bonds. Investing in fixed income securities involves certain risks, such as market risk if sold prior to maturity and credit risk, especially if investing in high-yield bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than original cost upon redemption or maturity. Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income for some investors may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic suitability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. Investment focused on certain geographical regions increases the vulnerability to developments in that region. This may result in greater share price volatility. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject an investment to greater share price volatility than an investment in traditional equity or debt securities. The prices of various commodities may fluctuate based on numerous factors including changes in supply and demand relationships, weather and acts of nature, agricultural conditions, international trade conditions, fiscal monetary and exchange control programs, domestic and foreign political and economic events and policies, and changes in interest rates or sectors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ complex strategies which may expose investors to additional risks, including futures roll yield risk. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index-performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of an investment. All mutual funds available by prospectus. Contact your Financial Advisor for a copy of the most recent prospectus.