* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download NGEN03 Global Ecosystem Dynamics 2013
Survey
Document related concepts
Island restoration wikipedia , lookup
Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project wikipedia , lookup
Conservation biology wikipedia , lookup
Ecological resilience wikipedia , lookup
Latitudinal gradients in species diversity wikipedia , lookup
Molecular ecology wikipedia , lookup
Introduced species wikipedia , lookup
Ecological fitting wikipedia , lookup
Storage effect wikipedia , lookup
Biodiversity wikipedia , lookup
Ecosystem services wikipedia , lookup
Biogeography wikipedia , lookup
Biodiversity action plan wikipedia , lookup
Habitat conservation wikipedia , lookup
Restoration ecology wikipedia , lookup
Reconciliation ecology wikipedia , lookup
Transcript
NGEN03 Global Ecosystem Dynamics 2014 Global Ecosystem Dynamics is part of Earth System Science Earth System Science Objective of Earth System Science: Solid understanding how the Earth changes and resulting Describing consequences for life on Earth Earth System Science Focus: Enabling of prediction and mitigation of undesirable consequences Earth System Science Requirements: Ability of identification and description of changes of the Earth system Ability to identify and measure the primary forces on the Earth system both natural and human activities Earth System Science Requirements: Knowledge of how the Earth system responds to changes Identification of the consequences of these changes for human civilization Ability to accurately predict future changes with the AIM to sufficient mitigate the predicted effects. Earth System Science To achieve this level of knowledge and To understand a multidisciplinary approach It is inevitable to study the Earth as a system. Earth System Science Such an approach involves: studying the processes and interactions (cycles) among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere (permafrost zone), biosphere, geosphere, and pedosphere from a global to local point-of-view, and across the time scales (minutes to eons) in which these spheres interact. Earth System Science It requires the use of physical and chemical laws with mathematics to describe the physical, chemical and biological processes within each sphere and the interactions between the spheres. Earth System Science These descriptions are used along with observations from ground, airborne, waterborne, and spaceborne instruments to construct models through which complex interactions of the spheres are studied. Sensitivity of the Earth System Earth System Science It is through the understanding of these complex interactions that accurate, predictive models are developed. (Dr. Blanche Meeson, Assistant Director of Earth Sciences for Education and Outreach, Goddard Space Flight Center, May, 2000.) Breaking boundaries A comment on disciplinary boundaries. The path to success in science is often perceived as one of narrow specialization. However, ESS requires the ability to integrate knowledge from different disciplines. In this case, disciplinary boundaries must not only be crossed, but those with different specializations must collaborate. Since scientists are human, and are emotionally invested in their affiliations and self definition, and since research resources are involved, disciplinary territorialism exists and can be a hindrance. Some suggest we live in a post-disciplinary scientific world. Not yet, and maybe never, but I believe the present trend is towards the integration and redefinition of traditional boundaries (Harmon Maher, Univ. Nebraska). Breaking boundaries What do you think? Which subject/s is/ are missing? http://maps.unomaha.edu/maher/linked/Week%201%262/ESS.html Hydrology Limnology Geophysics Morphology & Sedimentology Morphology Soilscience 2010qe-science10.wikispaces.com/KueB Habitat Ecological or environmental area which inhabitated a particular species. Biotop Ecological or environmental area which inhabitated a particular community or assemblage of species. Ecosystems One definition of an ecosystem: ‘a system formed by the interaction of a community of organisms with their physical environment’ Source: Princeton University Biomes Biomes often identified with particular patterns of ecological succession and climax vegetation. It is not defined on species level, but on trait level. Change over time requires us to understand evolution and the geological record. Species response Temperature Individual species respond to their changing environment. As a response, ecosystems change (including succession). Individual ecosystems do not move. Individual species move, and/or can adapt. Soil water Temperature Soil water Limit for growth Soil water Global Ecosystem Dynamics 2014 Richard Bradshaw Holocene lanuse Oskar Löfgren Landscape fragmentation Dörte Lehsten Course leader Chiara Molinari Honor Prentice Genetic Diversity Holocene & Quaternary Mats Rundgreen Dan Metcalfe Forest-climate interactions What made us think about ecosystem dynamics Global distribution of species? Thomas Henry Huxley (1825 -1895) Extinct fossilized species? Richard Owen (1804 – 1892) Plate tectonic? Alfred Lothar Wegner (1880 – 1930) Evolution of species? Charles Robert Darwin (1809 – 1882) Genetic variations? Gregor Johann Mendel (1822 – 1884) What made us think about ecosystem dynamics Global distribution of species? Thomas Henry Huxley (1825 -1895) Extinct fossilized species? Richard Owen (1804 – 1892) Plate tectonic? Alfred Lothar Wegner (1880 – 1930) Evolution of species? Charles Robert Darwin (1809 – 1882) Genetic variations? Gregor Johann Mendel (1822 – 1884) Rising global temperatures with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration due to industry (also CH4 increases) What made us think about ecosystem dynamics If we are honest, it is the observation of a correlation between the concentration of CO2 (and to a lesser extent CH4) and global mean temperature in the later half of the 20th century AD that has highlighted the importance of climate change at scientific, economic, public and political levels of understanding. But, correlation between two (or more) parameters does not imply cause and effect! What made us think about ecosystem dynamics What made us think about ecosystem dynamics Observed temperature change 2009 386 ppm Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere The map above depicts the amount of carbon taken out of the atmosphere by plant life. Along with the ocean itself, plant life also plays a major role in removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Source: NOAA. Black = little, blue = more, red/yellow = a lot. Potential natural vegetation Little is know about the ocean! Ramankutty & Foley 1999 Potential natural vegetation Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere The map above depicts the amount of carbon taken out of the atmosphere by plant life. Along with the ocean itself, plant life also plays a major role in removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Source: NOAA. Black = little, blue = more, red/yellow = a lot. Oxygen Isotopic stages Alternating warm and cool periods in Earth’s climate, deduced from oxygen isotope data (composition of 16O 17O and 18O) North-south migration of vegetation during the Quaternary Pollendata for reconstruction of former vegetation http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pollen/viewer/webviewer.html European vegetation development since the last glacial maximum Distribution of ”vegetation units” based on pollen data Huntley (1990) DNA evidence of white spruce refugium in Alaska Reconstruction of Norway spruce recolonization in Europe by pollendata analyses Picea abies DNA variation of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) in Europe by pollendata analyses Trollefsrud et al. (2008) Molecular Ecology Picea abies Modelled postglacial recolonization of Norway spruce (picea abies) with and without the effect of competition (Lehsten et al. 2014) Spatial and temporal visualisation of beech migration in Europe during the Holocene a) without competition, b) with competition Chloroplast DNA variation and postglacial recolonization of common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Europe M. HEUERTZ,*†‡‡ S. FINESCHI,‡ M. ANZIDEI,§ R. PASTORELLI,§ D. SALVINI,‡ L. PAULE,¶ N. FRASCARIA-LACOSTE,** O . J . HARDY,† X. VEKEMANS†† and G. G. VENDRAMIN§ The patterns MAY allow the inference of immigration trajectories (or may not!) Chloroplast DNA variation of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) (Magri et al. 2006) Ppostglacial recolonization of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Out of refugia (Magri et al. 2006) Fagus sylvatica Modelled postglacial recolonization of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) with and without the effect of competition (Lehsten et al. 2014) Spatial and temporal visualisation of beech migration in Europe during the Holocene a) without competition, b) with competition Holocene immigration scenario for a grasshopper Chorthippus paralleus ’Glacial refugia’: a hot topic – can genetics help? Human population growth Year, AD http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/index.php Human population growth 1. November 2014: 7,271,400,000 Year, AD http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/index.php World population growth through history Billions Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998) Impact of humans on ecosystem changes by land use Foley et al. (2005) Potential natural forest (PNF) Urban areas Crop areas Natural forest Pasture areas Managed forests Lehsten et al. 2014 Natural Vegetation Foley et al. (2005) Cropland Foley et al. (2005) Pastures and Rangelands Foley et al. (2005) Global spatial levels of cultivation 2000 years ago Roberts (1998) What about the ocean? Agricultural Suitability http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx 1723-1733 Loss of natural grassland from an agricultural landscape on Öland: Human impact on biodiversity N 1801-1810 1821-1851 1938 1959 1994 0 5 km Changes in land-cover since 1725 A local example: The natural ecosystem (~biome) has been destroyed. The carbon storage and fluxes have changed. Humans are responsible. Would the natural grassland re-establish if humans were removed? How long would it take? Can grassland recover if species are now too distant, or the geology changed? Loss of species and genetic diversity Zoonoses http://www.graphs.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/zoonotic-diseases-fact-sheets.jpg http://www.onehealthinitiative.com/gfx/MapLrg.jpg http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8015/7492992100_3d356393c0.jpg Illustration of H5N1 jump from wild water fowl to mammals and population. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dyex4Xhca24/T0waWjkGPRI/AAAAAAAAAGg/hZRmcDe6bYY/s1600/H5N1.png Three steps to invasion of a new disease into a species population Establishment Species introduced Species Naturalised Reproduction successful New host becomes sick However, this is an adapted slide of invasive species theory Species spread & invasion Through new species’ population Three steps to invasion Species naturalised Establishment Species introduced Species spread & invasion Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans invasive species or zoonosis? An Matela et al. ; 2013 science http://www.ruhrnachrichten.de/storage/pic/mdhl/automatischerbildimport/dpa/infoline/wissenschaft/4923680_1_urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-141031-9908561_large_4_3.jpg?version=1414786374 Ecosystem service: Biodiversity dynamics in form of species and genetic diversity as measure of ecosystem health Global ecosystem change It is not about the polar http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/sites/default/files/styles/media_full/public/013250752_0.jpg?itok=7I3teBZO Global ecosystem change It is about us humans http://www.blogcdn.com/de.autoblog.com/media/2010/08/giant-traffic-jam.jpg Global ecosystem change And our ignorance about catastrophic changes http://www.snonline.de/var/storage/images/haz/nachrichten/polit ik/deutschland-welt/fluechtlinge-klettern-uebergrenzzaun-auf-golfplatz-in-melilla/145275331-1ger-DE/Golf-von-Afrika_ArtikelQuer.jpg http://peakwater.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/d.jpg Global ecosystem change And our ignorance about catastrophic changes – not only far away from us The united states experienced a drought in 2011/ -12/ -13 2013:driest year for 130 years for several regions in USA; Called the most expensive natural disaster for United states. Natural? http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02284/us-drought_2284199b.jpg