Download NGEN03 Global Ecosystem Dynamics 2013

NGEN03
Global Ecosystem
Dynamics
2014
Global Ecosystem Dynamics
is part of
Earth System Science
Earth System Science
Objective of Earth System Science:
Solid understanding how the Earth changes
and resulting
Describing consequences for life on Earth
Earth System Science
Focus:
Enabling of prediction and mitigation
of undesirable consequences
Earth System Science
Requirements:
Ability of identification and description
of changes of the Earth system
Ability to identify and measure
the primary forces on the Earth system
both natural and human activities
Earth System Science
Requirements:
Knowledge of how the Earth system responds to changes
Identification of the consequences of these changes
for human civilization
Ability to accurately predict future changes
with the AIM to sufficient mitigate the predicted effects.
Earth System Science
To achieve this level of knowledge
and
To understand a multidisciplinary approach
It is inevitable to study the Earth as a system.
Earth System Science
Such an approach involves:
studying the processes and interactions (cycles) among the
atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere (permafrost zone),
biosphere, geosphere, and pedosphere
from a global to local point-of-view, and
across the time scales (minutes to eons) in which
these spheres interact.
Earth System Science
It requires the use of physical and chemical laws
with mathematics
to describe the physical, chemical and biological processes
within each sphere and the interactions between the spheres.
Earth System Science
These descriptions are used along with observations
from ground, airborne, waterborne,
and spaceborne instruments
to construct models through which
complex interactions of the spheres are studied.
Sensitivity of the Earth System
Earth System Science
It is through the understanding of these complex interactions
that accurate, predictive models are developed.
(Dr. Blanche Meeson, Assistant Director of Earth Sciences for
Education and Outreach, Goddard Space Flight Center, May, 2000.)
Breaking boundaries
A comment on disciplinary boundaries.
The path to success in science is often perceived as one of narrow
specialization.
However, ESS requires the ability to integrate knowledge
from different disciplines.
In this case, disciplinary boundaries must not only be crossed, but those
with different specializations must collaborate.
Since scientists are human, and are emotionally invested in their
affiliations and self definition, and since research resources are
involved, disciplinary territorialism exists and can be a hindrance.
Some suggest we live in a post-disciplinary scientific world. Not yet, and
maybe never, but I believe the present trend is towards the integration and
redefinition of traditional boundaries (Harmon Maher, Univ. Nebraska).
Breaking boundaries
What do you think?
Which subject/s is/ are
missing?
http://maps.unomaha.edu/maher/linked/Week%201%262/ESS.html
Hydrology
Limnology
Geophysics
Morphology & Sedimentology
Morphology
Soilscience
2010qe-science10.wikispaces.com/KueB
Habitat
Ecological or environmental
area which inhabitated a
particular species.
Biotop
Ecological or environmental area
which inhabitated a particular
community or assemblage of
species.
Ecosystems
One definition of an ecosystem:
‘a system formed by the interaction of a
community of organisms with their physical
environment’
Source: Princeton University
Biomes
Biomes often identified with particular
patterns of ecological succession and climax
vegetation. It is not defined on species level,
but on trait level.
Change over time requires
us to understand evolution
and the geological record.
Species response
Temperature
Individual species respond to their changing environment.
As a response, ecosystems change (including succession).
Individual ecosystems do not move.
Individual species move, and/or can adapt.
Soil water
Temperature
Soil water
Limit for
growth
Soil water
Global Ecosystem Dynamics 2014
Richard Bradshaw
Holocene lanuse
Oskar Löfgren
Landscape fragmentation
Dörte Lehsten
Course leader
Chiara
Molinari
Honor Prentice
Genetic Diversity
Holocene &
Quaternary
Mats
Rundgreen
Dan Metcalfe
Forest-climate interactions
What made us think about ecosystem
dynamics
Global distribution of species?
Thomas Henry Huxley (1825 -1895)
Extinct fossilized species?
Richard Owen (1804 – 1892)
Plate tectonic?
Alfred Lothar Wegner (1880 – 1930)
Evolution of species?
Charles Robert Darwin (1809 – 1882)
Genetic variations?
Gregor Johann Mendel (1822 – 1884)
What made us think about ecosystem
dynamics
Global distribution of species?
Thomas Henry Huxley (1825 -1895)
Extinct fossilized species?
Richard Owen (1804 – 1892)
Plate tectonic?
Alfred Lothar Wegner (1880 – 1930)
Evolution of species?
Charles Robert Darwin (1809 – 1882)
Genetic variations?
Gregor Johann Mendel (1822 – 1884)
Rising global
temperatures with
increasing
atmospheric CO2
concentration due to
industry (also CH4
increases)
What made us think about ecosystem
dynamics
If we are honest, it is the observation of a
correlation between the concentration of
CO2 (and to a lesser extent CH4) and
global mean temperature in the later half
of the 20th century AD that has
highlighted the importance of climate
change at scientific, economic, public and
political levels of understanding.
But, correlation between
two (or more)
parameters does not
imply cause and effect!
What made us think about ecosystem
dynamics
What made us think about ecosystem
dynamics
Observed temperature change
2009
386 ppm
Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere
The map above depicts the amount of carbon taken out of the atmosphere by plant
life. Along with the ocean itself, plant life also plays a major role in removing CO2 from
the atmosphere.
Source: NOAA. Black = little, blue = more, red/yellow = a lot.
Potential natural vegetation
Little is know about the ocean!
Ramankutty & Foley 1999
Potential natural vegetation
Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere
The map above depicts the amount of carbon taken out of the atmosphere by plant
life. Along with the ocean itself, plant life also plays a major role in removing CO2 from
the atmosphere.
Source: NOAA. Black = little, blue = more, red/yellow = a lot.
Oxygen Isotopic stages
Alternating warm and cool periods in Earth’s climate, deduced
from oxygen isotope data (composition of 16O 17O and 18O)
North-south migration of vegetation
during the Quaternary
Pollendata for reconstruction of former vegetation
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pollen/viewer/webviewer.html
European vegetation development
since the last glacial maximum
Distribution of ”vegetation units” based on pollen data
Huntley (1990)
DNA evidence of white spruce refugium in Alaska
Reconstruction of
Norway spruce
recolonization in
Europe by
pollendata
analyses
Picea abies
DNA variation of
Norway spruce
(Picea abies L.) in
Europe by
pollendata
analyses
Trollefsrud et al. (2008) Molecular Ecology
Picea abies
Modelled postglacial recolonization of Norway spruce (picea abies) with
and without the effect of competition (Lehsten et al. 2014)
Spatial and temporal visualisation of beech migration
in Europe during the Holocene a) without competition,
b) with competition
Chloroplast DNA variation and postglacial recolonization
of common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Europe
M. HEUERTZ,*†‡‡ S. FINESCHI,‡ M. ANZIDEI,§ R. PASTORELLI,§ D. SALVINI,‡ L. PAULE,¶
N. FRASCARIA-LACOSTE,** O . J . HARDY,† X. VEKEMANS†† and G. G. VENDRAMIN§
The patterns MAY allow
the inference of
immigration trajectories
(or may not!)
Chloroplast DNA variation
of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica) (Magri et al. 2006)
Ppostglacial recolonization of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica)
Out of refugia (Magri et al. 2006)
Fagus sylvatica
Modelled postglacial recolonization of European Beech (Fagus
sylvatica) with and without the effect of competition (Lehsten et al. 2014)
Spatial and temporal visualisation of beech migration
in Europe during the Holocene a) without competition,
b) with competition
Holocene immigration scenario for a grasshopper
Chorthippus paralleus
’Glacial refugia’: a hot topic – can genetics help?
Human population growth
Year, AD
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/index.php
Human population growth
1. November 2014:
7,271,400,000
Year, AD
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/index.php
World population growth through history
Billions
Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Impact of humans on ecosystem changes by land use
Foley et al. (2005)
Potential natural forest (PNF)
Urban areas
Crop areas
Natural forest
Pasture areas
Managed forests
Lehsten et al. 2014
Natural Vegetation
Foley et al. (2005)
Cropland
Foley et al. (2005)
Pastures and Rangelands
Foley et al. (2005)
Global spatial levels of cultivation 2000 years ago
Roberts (1998)
What about the ocean?
Agricultural Suitability
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx
1723-1733
Loss of natural grassland from an agricultural landscape on
Öland: Human impact on biodiversity
N
1801-1810
1821-1851
1938
1959
1994
0
5 km
Changes in land-cover since 1725
A local example:
The natural ecosystem
(~biome) has been
destroyed.
The carbon storage and
fluxes have changed.
Humans are responsible.
Would the natural grassland
re-establish if humans were
removed? How long would it
take?
Can grassland recover if
species are now too distant,
or the geology changed?
Loss of species and genetic diversity
Zoonoses
http://www.graphs.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/zoonotic-diseases-fact-sheets.jpg
http://www.onehealthinitiative.com/gfx/MapLrg.jpg
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8015/7492992100_3d356393c0.jpg
Illustration of H5N1 jump from wild water fowl to mammals and population.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dyex4Xhca24/T0waWjkGPRI/AAAAAAAAAGg/hZRmcDe6bYY/s1600/H5N1.png
Three steps to invasion of a new
disease into a species population
Establishment
Species
introduced
Species
Naturalised
Reproduction successful
New host becomes sick
However, this is an adapted slide of invasive species theory
Species
spread &
invasion
Through new
species’
population
Three steps to invasion
Species
naturalised
Establishment
Species
introduced
Species
spread &
invasion
Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans
invasive species or zoonosis?
An Matela et al. ; 2013 science
http://www.ruhrnachrichten.de/storage/pic/mdhl/automatischerbildimport/dpa/infoline/wissenschaft/4923680_1_urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-141031-9908561_large_4_3.jpg?version=1414786374
Ecosystem service:
Biodiversity dynamics
in form of species and genetic diversity
as measure of ecosystem health
Global ecosystem change
It is not about the polar
http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/sites/default/files/styles/media_full/public/013250752_0.jpg?itok=7I3teBZO
Global ecosystem change
It is about us humans
http://www.blogcdn.com/de.autoblog.com/media/2010/08/giant-traffic-jam.jpg
Global ecosystem change
And our ignorance about catastrophic
changes
http://www.snonline.de/var/storage/images/haz/nachrichten/polit
ik/deutschland-welt/fluechtlinge-klettern-uebergrenzzaun-auf-golfplatz-in-melilla/145275331-1ger-DE/Golf-von-Afrika_ArtikelQuer.jpg
http://peakwater.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/d.jpg
Global ecosystem change
And our ignorance about catastrophic
changes – not only far away from us
The united states
experienced a drought
in 2011/ -12/ -13
2013:driest year for
130 years for several
regions in USA;
Called the most
expensive natural
disaster for United
states. Natural?
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02284/us-drought_2284199b.jpg