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Geophys. J. Int. (1998) 132, 347–362 Geological and geophysical evidence for large palaeo-earthquakes with surface faulting in the Roer Graben (northwest Europe) Thierry Camelbeeck and Mustapha Meghraoui* Royal Observatory of Belgium, av. Circulaire 3, B-1180 Bruxelles, Belgium. E-mail: [email protected] Accepted 1997 August 15. Received 1997 August 11; in original form 1996 December 16 SU MM A RY From the analysis of geological, geodetic and geophysical data we provide clear evidence of seismogenic faults capable of producing large earthquakes in intraplate Europe. Previous studies (Paulissen, Vandenberghe & Gullentops 1985; Van den Berg et al. 1994; Geluk et al. 1994) have yielded some constraints on the rate of crustal deformation along the Roer Valley, a graben structure crossing the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, and have allowed us to address the fundamental questions: can intraplate earthquakes rupture the surface in this part of ‘stable’ continental Europe, and if so, what is their return period? Detailed palaeoseismic investigations have been carried out in Belgium along a 10 km long fault scarp which is the morphological expression of the Feldbiss Fault, the southwestern border fault of the Roer Graben (Camelbeeck & Meghraoui 1996). The scarp is multiple and the frontal fault scarp offsets young deposits and alluvial terraces. Field investigations using geological and geomorphological methodologies combined with geophysical prospecting provide evidence of Holocene seismic surface faulting. From 14C dating it is suggested that the last earthquake along the fault scarp occurred between 610 AD and 890 AD. Levelling profiles across the scarp suggest that it produced a vertical coseismic displacement of 0.5–1 m along the scarp. If we suppose that the last surface-faulting earthquake ruptured the whole seismogenic layer (17 km thickness) over a minimum length (10 km) corresponding to the length of the Bree scarp with an average slip of 0.6 m, its seismic moment was at least 3.1×1018 N m (M =6.3) for an average rigidity m=3×1010 Pa. W By estimating the offset of the main terrace of the Maas River by slippage along the Feldbiss Fault, we calculate the average Late Pleistocene vertical deformation rate as 0.08±0.04 mm yr−1. Palaeoseismic information combining the trench and geomorphic observations suggests the occurrence of two surface-faulting earthquakes during the last 20 kyr. A third dates before 28–35 kyr BP. Then, if the time distribution of earthquakes is uniform, a return period of 12±5 ka and a vertical deformation rate of 0.06±0.04 mm yr−1 are inferred. Key words: crustal deformation, earthquakes, normal faulting, Roer Graben. I NT R O DU C TI O N Continental earthquakes are qualified as large when they rupture the whole seismogenic layer and hence produce surface ruptures or at least measurable surface coseismic deformation (Scholz 1990). Compared with seismic activity along plate boundaries, the occurrence of such earthquakes in intraplate regions is relatively rare. Worldwide, only 11 intraplate historical earthquakes which produced coseismic surface faulting are * Now at C.N.R.–C.S. Geologia Tecnica, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy. © 1998 RAS known (Johnston et al. 1994), and presumably none occurred in intraplate Europe in historic times. However, due to the higher vulnerability of developed urban areas, widespread damage is to be expected for densely populated regions. This was the case for the 1993 September 29 M =6.4 Killari S earthquake, which struck the stable Indian continental domain (10 000 deaths). The densely populated areas of northwest Europe, where seismic activity is apparently low and damaging earthquakes virtually unknown, would be at high risk from the occurrence of an earthquake similar to the Killari event. Although historical seismic catalogues covering the last six centuries provide a long list of moderate earthquakes (Table 1), intraplate Europe is often considered to be a region safe from 347 348 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui Table 1. Main historical earthquakes (M >5.0) in central and northwestern Europe and in the northwestern part of the Alps (1350–1995). All S the earthquakes with estimated magnitude >4.5 in the Lower Rhine Graben region are also indicated. N° Date Latitude Longitude 1 2 3* 4 5* 6 7 8* 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27* 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 13561018 135705 13820521 13950611 14490423 15040823 15750226 15800406 16010908 16400404 16820512 16901218 16920908 17330518 17551209 17551227 17560218 17600120 18280223 18460729 18731022 18780826 19050429 19111116 19130720 19260730 19310607 19321120 19380611 19460125 19510314 19780903 19831108 19920413 47.5 N 50.0 N 51.3 N 50.6 N 51.6 N 50.8 N 53.0 N 51.0 N 46.9 N 50.8 N 48.0 N 50.8 N 50.6 N 50.0 N 46.3 N 50.8 N 50.7 N 50.7 N 50.7 N 50.1 N 50.90 N 50.93 N 45.90 N 48.22 N 48.24 N 49.17 N 54.05 N 51.71 N 50.78 N 46.30 N 50.64 N 48.30 N 50.63 N 51.16 N 7.5 E 8.3 E 2.0 E 6.3 E 2.5 E 6.1 E 2.0 W 1.5 E 8.2 E 6.1 E 6.6 E 6.1 E 5.8 E 8.3 E 7.5 E 6.2 E 6.3 E 6.3 E 5.2 E 7.7 E 6.10 E 6.55 E 7.00 E 9.05 E 9.00 E 1.62 W 1.45 E 5.61 E 3.58 E 7.50 E 6.73 E 8.93 E 5.53 E 5.92 E M S M est >6.5 6.0 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.4 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.2 5.1 5.5 4.7 5.0 6.1 5.3 5.2 4.5 5.4 I 0 IX–X VII VIII VII VI–VII VII VI–VII VII–VIII VIII VII VIII VI–VII VIII VII VIII–IX VII VIII VII VII–VIII VII VII VIII VIII VIII VII VI–VII V–VI VII VII VIII VII–VIII VII VII VII Reference Vogt (1979) Alexandre (1994) Melville et al. (1996) Alexandre (1994) Melville et al. (1996) Alexandre (1994) Ambraseys (personal communication, 1985) Melville et al. (1996) Vogt (1979) Vogt (1994) Vogt (1979) Alexandre (personal communication, 1996) Alexandre (personal communication, 1996) Vogt (1991) Bertrand (1757) Alexandre & Vogt (1994) Alexandre & Vogt (1994); Ahorner, Murawski & Schneider (1970) Alexandre & Vogt (1994) Ambraseys (1985b); Karnik (1969); Ahorner et al. (1970) Ambraseys (1985b); Karnik (1969); Ahorner et al. (1970) Ambraseys (1985b); Karnik (1969); Ahorner et al. (1970) Ambraseys (1985b); Karnik (1969); Ahorner et al. (1970) Karnik (1969) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Ambraseys (1985a) Camelbeeck & van Eck (1994) M is the estimated magnitude from macroseismic information; est I is the maximum observed intensity (MSK scale); 0 * epicentre on sea; the earthquakes are located and referenced, respectively, with their number and date on Figs 1(a) and ( b). large earthquakes. In this continental interior zone between the Alps and the North Sea (Fig. 1a), earthquakes concentrate mainly along geological structures such as the Upper Rhine Graben and the adjacent Vosges and Black Forest mountains, the Swabian Jura, the Lower and Middle Rhine valleys and the Belgian zone. These moderate-sized earthquakes have caused occasional damage associated with intensities of I= VIII (MSK) on the Medvedev, Sponheuer and Karnik scale, which corresponds to moderate structural damage and heavy non-structural damage to many masonry buildings, with supposedly no related visible coseismic surface displacements. The well known exception of a large earthquake is the Basel earthquake of 1356 October 18, which had an estimated epicentral intensity of IX–X (Vogt 1979). Some 30 years ago, Ahorner (1962) proposed a pattern of earthquake distribution in central and northwest Europe and inferred a detailed correlation between earthquake activity and Quaternary structures. More recently, Vandenberghe (1982), Van den Berg (1994), Geluk et al. (1994) and Paulissen et al. (1985) studied the Neogene and Quaternary tectonics of the Roer Graben. In spite of these efforts, active faults—structures that have an established record of activity in the late Pleistocene (in the past 125 000 years) and a possible capability of generating major earthquakes (Boschi et al. 1996)— remained unidentified and coseismic surface displacements were considered to be non-existent. The identification of active faults and the search for evidence of past coseismic surface faulting produced by earthquakes are important considerations for intraplate continental deformation and seismic hazard assessment in northwest Europe. In this paper, we provide geological and geophysical evidence of large prehistoric surface faulting of seismic origin in the Roer Graben. Using seismotectonic analyses, we argue for strong earthquake activity during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and for the potential of large earthquakes in the intraplate tectonic domain of central and northwestern Europe. Our investigation questions the traditional approach to seismic hazard assessment based only on short-term historical and instrumental catalogues. R AT E O F TEC TO NI C M O VEM EN TS The Roer Valley is a branch of the Rhine Graben system, which belongs to the reactivated Cenozoic rift in western Europe. The strong subsidence of the Roer Valley during the last 150 000 years (Geluk et al. 1994), the Quaternary faults © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Figure 1. (a) Seismic activity in northwest continental Europe. Instrumental (from 1900 onwards) seismicity data are taken from the International Seismological Center and the Royal Observatory data base. Historical earthquakes with magnitude M>5 are indicated (Table 1). Main active zones of the intraplate domain are the Lower Rhine Embayment, which comprises the Roer Graben, the Upper Rhine Graben and the Swabian Jura. Paler regions mark the central parts of rift valleys. (b) Distribution of Quaternary faults along the Roer Valley and the late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits. Main historical earthquakes with magnitude M>4.5 (Table 1) show that fault segments can be seismogenic in this region. Note that the Bree fault scarp location is apparently in a zone with a gap of historical seismicity. Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 349 350 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui and associated morphology along the flanks of the graben, and the 0.8–2 mm yr−1 vertical rate of deformation obtained from the comparison of levellings during the last 100 years (Van den Berg et al. 1994; Mälzer, Hein & Zippelt 1983), combined with the seismic activity, are the most significant elements demonstrating recent and present-day crustal deformation. Based on the main geological structures and Cenozoic subsidence data, the Lower Rhine Graben can be divided into several tectonic units (Fig. 1b): (1) the Krefeld block, which borders the subsiding area to the northeast, (2) the Venlo Graben and the Peel block, which have an intermediate subsidence, (3) the Roer Graben and the Erft block, which correspond to central valleys and sites of strong subsidence, and (4) the Campine and South Limburg blocks of intermediate subsidence and the Brabant block, bordering the subsiding area to the southwest. A detailed map of Bouguer gravity anomalies (C. Poitevin & M. Everaerts, personal communication, 1995) reflects this structural subdivision and shows clear limits of the different units (Fig. 2a). The area with the largest negative anomaly correlates remarkably well with the Roer Graben and corresponds to the most important region of post-Miocene subsidence (Geluk et al. 1994). The Roer Graben is bordered by two main NNW– SSE-trending Quaternary normal fault systems, the Peel Boundary Fault to the east and the Feldbiss fault zone to the west. The results of modelling the gravimetric anomaly at the western border of the graben using the method of Rasmussen & Pedersen (1979) are in agreement with the thickness of sediment deposited in the graben on the Palaeozoic rocks forming the basement, which is known from wells and seismic profiles (Fig. 3). To improve the fit between the observations and the modelling, it would be necessary to take into account the lateral extension of the fault zone as deduced for example from the analysis of Demyttenaere (1989) or Demyttenaere & Laga (1988). On the other hand, the resolution of the seismic profiles is better for obtaining information about deposits in the graben and fault throws than the gravity profiles, which have one value every kilometre. From deep seismic profiles in the Netherlands (Geluk 1990), the Moho depth below the graben is about 28 km, which is low compared with the values of 30–31 km determined on the shoulders, indicating crustal thinning of 2–3 km under the graben. The crust is thus clearly stretched, and this stretching is related to the strong Neogene and Quaternary subsidence and extensional tectonics. The repartitioning of the seismic activity with depth across the Roer Graben during the years 1980–1995 is presented in Fig. 4. The hypocentres range from depths of about 5 to 20 km and are clearly bounded by straight lines which are well correlated near the surface with the location and the geometry of the two border faults. The recent seismic activity linked to the Peel Boundary Fault is more significant and corresponds to the M 5.4 Roermond earthquake (1992 April 13) and its S aftershocks. These data suggest that the crustal thinning can be interpreted as lithospheric extension accommodated by faulting along large extensional faults in the upper brittle crust, which extends here down to a depth of 20 km, and pure shear in the lower crust and mantle (see for example the models of Kusznir, Marsden & Egan 1991). As is the case for many other examples (see Roberts & Yielding 1994) in continental extensional regions, the earth- quake data, particularly that concerning the Roermond earthquake and its aftershocks (Ahorner 1994; Camelbeeck & van Eck 1994), suggest also that the border faults of the Roer Graben are planar faults throughout the seismogenic layer. Their dip is about 60° to 70°. There is, of course, an information gap between the model in Fig. 3( b), which extends only to 2 km depth, and the onset of seismic activity in Fig. 4 at about 5 km depth. Nevertheless, the similarity of the geometry, the fault slip orientation in the seismogenic layer, the location of the faults and the evidence of active lithospheric extension suggest that there is no reason to think that the observed fault throws near the surface are not the superficial expression of large crustal faults. On the other hand, as it is suggested by Scholz (1990), the existence of an upper cut-off in seismicity seems limited to well-developed fault zones, which should be the case for the Feldbiss Fault, as shown in the following section. This top of the seismogenic layer delimits the upper region in which earthquakes can nucleate, but of course does not bound the region in which they can propagate (Scholz 1990). For the Feldbiss fault zone, which is partly located in Belgium, the recent tectonic activity is mainly indicated at depth by seismic profiles (Fig. 5), showing an offset of Neogene deposits of more than 500 m (Demyttenaere & Laga 1988). On the basis of the same profiles, we interpret the vertical relative displacement of units at the base of the Quaternary as being 100–120 m. The reflector bQ (=±base Quaternary) in Fig. 5 is tentatively correlated to a horizon inside the Mol formation (De Batist & Versteeg 1998), which is a continental sandy unit with a Late Pliocene–Quaternary transition age. The measured offset corresponds to an average Quaternary rate of deformation of 0.050±0.015 mm yr−1. The Roer Graben subsided from the Middle Miocene onwards, and experienced an increase in tectonic activity around 3 Ma (Geluk et al. 1994); an average long-term uplift of 0.06 mm yr−1 in the adjacent South Limburg block was calculated from fluvial terraces of the Maas River ( Van den Berg 1994) (Fig. 6a). Based on a study of the Maas Valley geomorphology associated with an electrical prospecting interpretation, Paulissen et al. (1985) indicated that the most recent Quaternary activity along the southern border of the graben occurred along the Feldbiss Fault and concluded that the most vertical recent movements were 2–3 m during the Weichselian, and 8–10 m since the formation of the youngest Saalian terraces. The vertical offsets correspond to average deformation rates of, respectively, 0.05±0.03 mm yr−1 for the last 80 000 years and 0.06±0.02 mm yr−1 for the last 150 000 years. We interpret these as minimum values because it is likely that the Maas River crosses the Feldbiss Fault in a transfer zone corresponding to a lower footwall elevation. This hypothesis is based on the three following observations. (1) The sudden change of the Maas River course at the Tertiary–Quaternary limit from the Eastern Maas to the present course was probably caused by tectonic activity along the Feldbiss Fault in the Netherlands. This activity is clearly suggested by the data of Juvigné & Renard (1992) concerning the Maas terraces between Liège and Maastricht. (2) The main terrace of the Maas River, which formed during the Cromerian (>400 ka) and now forms the top of the uplifted block (Fig. 7), is displaced vertically by the Feldbiss © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Figure 2. (a) Map of Bouguer gravity anomalies showing the main zones of subsidence (negative anomaly) along the Roer Graben, and the related deep-seated fault distribution that limits the active basins. Location of gravity profile in Fig. 3 is indicated in white. (b) Seismotectonic map of the Roer Graben and surrounding areas. Focal mechanisms are compiled from the work of Camelbeeck & van Eck (1994). Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 351 352 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui Figure 3. Modelling of the Bouguer gravimetric anomaly across the Feldbiss Fault. (a) Bouguer gravimetric anomaly observed and calculated with the geological model presented in ( b) by the method of Rasmussen & Pedersen (1979). ( b) Geological model of Demyttenaere & Laga (1988) for the limit between the Campine Block and the Roer Graben. Density values appropriate for this region are taken from De Sitter (1949). (Mälzer et al. 1983) show an even higher vertical deformation rate of the order of 1–2 mm yr−1. In comparison to the deformation rates along the few studied active faults in the continental interior of Australia and the United States, the Late Pleistocene rate of vertical deformation in the Roer Graben is one order of magnitude greater (Crone, Machette & Bowman 1992, 1997a) and the seismic activity appears to be representative of ongoing crustal movements (Fig. 6b). Because seismogenic faults showing historic or prehistoric ruptures are known even in stable cratons (for example the Australian shield) (Johnston et al. 1994; Crone et al. 1997a,b), we believe that earthquakes along the Roer Graben system showing coseismic surface faulting are probable and that their signature can be documented by geological and geomorphological analyses. Figure 4. Depth distribution of the seismic activity in the Roer Graben during the years 1980–1995. The hypocentres are plotted following a section across the graben. Fault by an estimated distance of 20±5 m. From the analysis of Geluk et al. (1994), it is suggested that fault activity was not continuous during this period of time and, as illustrated in Fig. 6(a), that during the period 700–150 ka the subsidence in the Roer Graben was interrupted. It is thus possible that the main terrace has been displaced only during the last 150 kyr. Considering deformation of the main terrace to have occurred between 400 and 150 ka, we infer a vertical deformation rate of 0.08±0.04 mm yr−1 greater than that estimated in the Maas Valley bottom. (3) Paulissen et al. (1985) did not observe any Holocene movement, in contrast to our observations along the Bree fault scarp. In the Herten and Linne borehole in the Roer Graben near Roermond, Geluk et al. (1994) found a subsidence of 25 m during the last 150 kyr and of 15 m during the last 50 kyr, which suggests a subsidence rate of 0.15–0.3 mm yr−1 for the Late Pleistocene and Holocene (Fig. 6a). These late Quaternary rates of vertical movement are comparable to the minimum geodetic vertical rates of 0.8 mm yr−1 (±0.5 mm yr−1) measured between the Roer Graben and the South Limburg block. Furthermore, in the southern part of the Roer graben, at the border with the Rhenish Massif, geodetic measurements PA LA E O SE IS M I C EVI DEN CE A L ON G T HE BR E E FA U LT S C A R P Repeated coseismic displacements along a fault that may expose young deposits allow past earthquakes to be geologically recorded and display a typical morphological expression. In the region of Bree (west flank of the Roer Graben, Fig. 1b), along the Feldbiss fault zone, a NNW–SSE-trending fault scarp forms a gentle but noticeable morphology. The Bree fault separates the Campine Plateau (to the west) from the Roer Valley (to the east), and its geomorphic signature consists of a 10 km long sharp scarp slope with 15–20 m of topographic offset (Fig. 7a). The scarp has already been recognized as a Quaternary fault scarp, but it was, until now, considered inactive and mainly attributed to erosional processes, even though Paulissen (1973) described the scarp as displacing the main terrace of the Maas River. The Belgian Geological Survey executed 150 reflection seismic lines in the region for a total distance of 1000 km (Demyttenaere 1989), of which a dozen crossed the scarp. On different sections (Fig. 5), the scarp coincides at the surface with the prolongation of the Feldbiss fault zone and must be considered as the morphological expression of the fault’s recent activity. The Bree fault scarp affects the main terrace of the Maas River formed during the Cromerian ( between 700 and 400 ka). It corresponds to the northeastern border of the Plateau Campine, which is the uplifted block of this terrace and consists © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben 353 Figure 5. Seismic profile (and corresponding topography) produced by the Belgian Geological Survey across the Feldbiss Fault. Stratigraphy slightly modified from Demyttenaere & Laga (1988): bQ=±base Quaternary; bPli=base Pliocene; bMi=base Miocene; bTe=base Tertiary. of terrace gravels deposited by the Maas River (Zutendaal gravels). In the downthrown block, the Zutendaal gravels have been eroded by the Rhine, which afterwards deposited the Bocholt sands (Paulissen 1983). These formations are the basement on which the Maas subsequently formed its different terraces, which are the typical landscape of the region. The region was later covered by aeolian sands during the Riss and Würmian (Weichselian) glacial ages, and Holocene sediments are mainly alluvial deposits. Detailed field work and geodetic levelling of 36 profiles along strike, combined with the examination of aerial photographs, has revealed the existence, for a distance of greater than 10 km, of a frontal fault scarp with 0.5–3 m of vertical offset (Fig. 7b) in the aeolian coversands attributed to the Late Weichselian (Paulissen 1973). Its presence can be interpreted as a primary geomorphic expression of active faulting (Richter 1958; Stewart & Hancock 1994). The geomorphic analysis requires that profiles must follow the line of steepest slope so as to be parallel to the transport material across the scarp; consequently, their strikes may vary instead of being strictly perpendicular to the fault trend. By comparison with known active fault scarps in arid or semi-arid climates, the preservation of the frontal morphology of the Bree fault scarp in a humid climate where the erosion rates are greater is an indication of its youthfulness. At a site where a small river crosses the scarp, the frontal scarp corresponds to the offset of the river alluvial terrace young deposit. Owing to successive uplifts of the terrace, the river channel has deviated from its original bed, formed a swampy zone, and finally cut through the young deposits. The morphology of the deformed terrace (Fig. 8) is a reliable indicator of the recent tectonic activity along the fault associated with palaeo-earthquakes. (1) The river terrace, like the whole frontal scarp, is a compound scarp, containing two or three breaks in slope, each © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 of which originated in a separate rupture event followed by intervals of erosion. (2) The formation of a swampy area on the upthrown block, with deposits identical to that on the downthrown block, is explained by the sudden tilting of the uplifted block during each earthquake, which creates a depression retaining water on the upper block. It should be noted that the situation is similar at the other two sites where the scarp intersects river beds. (3) Stream incision into the upthrown block is clearly visible (Fig. 8a) and is expected after faulting, because the base level of the stream is suddenly lowered. On the other hand, stream incision is very small in the downthrown block. As the frontal scarp does not correspond to a contact between formations and is well visible for a distance of more than 10 km, it cannot be due to erosion, local sliding or soil consolidation. According to the levelling profile analysis (Meghraoui et al. 1997) it is likely that the last event produced a vertical offset ranging from 0.5 to 1.0 m (Fig. 7). The fault offsets young deposits and alluvial terraces, and shows a left-lateral en echelon pattern, suggesting extension of the Roer Graben in a NNE–SSW direction, slightly oblique to the graben trend. The earthquake focal mechanisms in the graben (Fig. 2b) are mostly dip-slip normal faulting along NW–SE-striking faults. The mechanism of the M 5.4 S Roermond earthquake of 1992 April 13 indicates SW–NE extension along a 70° dipping fault. There is a 20° discrepancy in the direction of extension between our surface-faulting observations and the focal mechanisms, but they represent the deformation at different spatial scales and also along different fault zones in the Roer Graben. The largest recorded earthquake along this section of the southwestern limit of the Roer Graben is the M =3.7 1960 June 25, event and there is no S evidence for larger historical events within the last 400 years. 354 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui Figure 6. (a) Rates of deformation obtained from geodetic levelling and geological data for the Roer Graben structure. The average long-term uplift rate obtained by Van den Berg et al. (1994) is 0.06 mm yr−1. Geluk et al. (1994) suggested that it increased during the last 150 kyr and reaches 0.2–0.3 mm yr−1. Repeated geodetic measurements during the last century yielded a maximum rate of 0.8 mm yr−1 ( Van den Berg et al. 1994). ( b) Comparative rates of vertical movements showing that the Bree fault scarp is amongst the most active structures of the continental interior (as compared with intraplate zones in the central United States (Olig et al. 1994; Crone et al. 1997b). Two trenches about 100 m in length were excavated across the Bree fault scarp in order to investigate recent faulting activity and related palaeo-earthquakes. Because of the large number of observations, we present here the most important part of the data; a palaeoseismological analysis that includes a detailed geological description of trench exposures combined with a geophysical and geomorphic analysis (including the scarp age determination) is the subject of another paper (Meghraoui et al. 1998). In order to locate the fault precisely in the subsurface and to extend the depth (>3 m) of the investigation, geophysical methods including electric prospecting, electric tomography, seismic refraction and radar measurements were performed. These methods were chosen because they can provide information at greater depths than trench excavation. All methods delineated the fault location (see electric profile, seismic refraction and radar in Fig. 9). The contrast of physical parameters (electrical resistivity and permittivity and seismic velocity) observed between the fault blocks results from a difference in the nature of the soils and sedimentary layers and from a change in the water table from the upper block to the downthrown block. The ground-penetrating radar was cor- rected for topography with a mean velocity of 90 mm ns−1. It was able to reveal the structure up to 4–5 m deep in some parts of the profiles. It suggests that the sedimentary layer 2 m deep near trench I (Fig. 9) is faulted and flexed, giving a total vertical displacement of about 1 m, which agrees with the total vertical offset in the geomorphic profile (Figs 7b and 8b). The successive coseismic displacements are thus preserved in both the morphology and the young sediments deposited by the river. In trench I (Fig. 10a), despite the presence of a superficial water level at 2.5 m depth, two well-sorted gravel horizons (e and g) intercalated with sandy clay deposits show 0.5 m of net vertical offset, which gives a picture of the last earthquake along the scarp. Due to the fault scarp morphology and the offset units and palaeosoils, no geological process other than coseismic surface faulting can explain the block deformation of these sediments (see also Mc Calpin 1996). Two observations in the immediate surroundings of the fault zone provide additional evidence of a sudden displacement: the presence of opened fissures only in the proximity of the scarp and the deformation (and wedging out) of palaeosol c in the trench. © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben 355 Figure 7. (a) Morphotectonic map showing the main section of the Bree fault scarp, the site of trench investigations where nine levelling profiles have been measured and the location of 27 additional levelling profiles (indicated in white) across the scarp. The geomorphic expression is delineated by a maximum topographic offset of 15–20 m, but the fault also shows a frontal scarp of 0.5–3 m along strike. (b)–(e) Interpretation of levelling profiles in terms of vertical offsets caused by surface-rupturing palaeo-earthquakes (for detailed explanations, see for example Mc Calpin 1996). Profiles ( b) and (c) are located on the small alluvial terrace in site I; arrows on map mark the locations of profiles (d) and (e). Note that profile elevations are only relative, and that offset values are cumulative from bottom to top. The trench observation is in good agreement with the geomorphic measurements of the fault scarp, indicating the existence at this site of at least two tilted and displaced old surfaces that are probably due to previous coseismic displacements (Figs 7b and 8b). Palaeosoils and sedimentary deposits with fairly high organic and carbon contents allowed 14C dating [Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) calibrated 2s] yielding a date for the last coseismic event ranging between 610 and 890 AD. The historical seismic catalogue (Alexandre 1990) mentions notable seismic activity between 782 and 836 AD in the region, with a large earthquake in December 803 AD reported in Aachen (Germany), which caused great concern in Germany, Belgium and as far away as France. However, historical information about earthquakes prior to the 16th century needs further investigation, and the last coseismic displacement along the Bree active fault, which could correspond to the 803 AD historical seismic event, can be more precisely determined with the subsequent trenching campaign. The second trench was excavated across the fault scarp at a distance of 300 m northwest of the first trench (Figs 7a and 10b). Here also the precise position of the fault zone has been obtained by a geophysical prospecting campaign. Because the upthrown block is formed of Middle Pleistocene sediments (Paulissen 1973, 1983) and the fault separated these sediments with supposedly reworked Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments, it is impossible to observe the relative offset of the stratigraphical units of the upthrown and downthrown blocks. In this excavation (Fig. 10b), the fault cuts through a succession of coarse gravels (g1) with an intercalated clay horizon (g2) and a sandy unit (g3) showing a prominent flexure, and © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 faulted colluvial wedge deposits (e1, e2, d). At the near surface, a unit of sandy gravel lenses (dated at 402–206 BC) is cut by the fault, showing a vertical offset of 0.7 m, and juxtaposed against a dark brown fine sandy clay b, representing the last colluvium at this place. From observations of the fault zone in three dimensions, a dip of 70°–75° has been determined. In the downthrown block, apart from the observations of surface faulting, additional soft-sediment deformation induced by strong ground motion is present. Fine sands and clay units, into which admixed coarse gravels and sandy clay sediments form channel incisions, display minor normal faulting and prominent liquefaction features (Fig. 11). Some of these features could also be interpreted by a mechanism other than a seismic one. 14C dating (AMS calibrated 2s) of organic and carbon contents of sedimentary deposits at a depth of 2 m in the trench yield ages ranging from 34.8 to 27.9 ka. These loamy beds, which contain peat, may correspond to the Denekamp interstadial (Kolstrup 1980). Their presence in the trench allows us to identify the different sedimentary units deposited after them. Based on the observed induced deformation, we suggest the occurrence of two large earthquakes after the deposition of the ‘Older Coversand I’ and a palaeosoil formed in river deposits, which are older than about 20 kyr. A third large earthquake dates before the Denekamp interstadial. If the time distribution of earthquakes is presumed uniform, an average return period of 12±5 ka and an average vertical deformation rate of 0.06±0.04 mm yr−1 are inferred. The palaeoseismic analysis incorporating trench, geophysical and geomorphic observations reveals clear evidence of surface 356 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui Figure 8. (a) Digital terrain illustration near trench I indicating the uplifted alluvial terrace with respect to the fault location in the trench exposure (see also Fig. 7a). ( b) Levelling profiles near trench I showing the successive uplifted alluvial units in trenches and the related fault scarp. The same geomorphic pattern is visible along 36 profiles levelled across the 10 km length of the fault and showing vertical displacements ranging from 0.5 to 3.0 m. The frontal scarp and related displaced surface S1 with 0.6 m of uplift correspond to the last coseismic movement along the fault observed in the trenches. The uplifted surface S2 reflects the cumulative movement. faulting with Holocene (probably historical ) coseismic displacements, and cumulative offsets probably due to older large earthquakes. From our observations of the colluvial wedges in trench II and of the block deformation in trench I, it is supposed that coseismic slip is larger than interseismic slip and that the major part of the measured vertical offset is caused by palaeo-earthquakes. S E IS M IC I TY A N D FA ULTI N G PAR A M E TER S The instrumental and historical seismic activity is not restricted to the Roer Graben but is rather unevenly distributed over an active region west of the Roer Graben bordered by a region with very low seismic activity in the eastern part of the Rhenish Massif (Table 1 and Figs 1 and 2b). Amongst the most important recent seismic events, the Liège earthquake of 1983 November 8 (M =4.6) occurred at the S limit between the Brabant and the Ardenne massifs, outside the graben, and had a dextral strike-slip mechanism along an ENE–WSW-trending fault with a thrust component at a depth of 4–6 km (Fig. 2b, Table 1). More recently, the Roermond earthquake of 1992 April 13 (M =5.4) occurred along the Peel S Boundary Fault and displayed a pure normal faulting mechanism on a NW–SE-trending fault; it originated at the base of the brittle crust at a depth of 17 km (Camelbeeck & van Eck 1994). Two other moderate-sized earthquakes occurred this century in the Roer Graben, the Uden event of November 1932 (M =4.7) and the Euskirchen earthquake of S 1951 March 14 (M =5.3) (Fig. 1b). From the 17th century S onwards, the historical seismicity provides numerous data on the damage distribution and related effects (Alexandre 1990; Alexandre & Vogt 1994), which allows an estimation of seismic parameters. Within this epoch, five earthquakes with M>5 affected the graben; amongst them (Table 1, Fig. 1b), the Düren earthquake of 1756 February 18, with an attributed magnitude M =5.5, was designated as the strongest. A recent examinaS tion of historical documents provides evidence that the 1692 September 8 earthquake, which struck the northern part of the Belgian Ardennes (Fig. 1b) and caused the destruction of castles and churches in the epicentral area and damage as far away as England, is perhaps the largest known event in the region (P. Alexandre, personal communication, 1996). © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben 357 Figure 9. (a) Geophysical measurements (geoelectricity and seismic refraction) near trench I. (b) Simplified stratigraphy of trench I, showing offset of gravel horizons (indicated with arrows) by surface faulting. (c) Radar profile along trench I, showing faulting of sedimentary strata at depth. The level indicated with arrows probably corresponds to lower gravel horizon g. Seismic activity in the Roer Graben during the period 1985–1995 indicates that the seismogenic layer concerns the upper 15–20 km of the crust (Fig. 4). The Roermond earthquake, with a seismic moment of 1.4×1017 N m and an average displacement of 0.3 m over a normal fault plane of approximately 11 km2, occurred at the base of the seismogenic layer. This indicates that it ruptured only a small part of the brittle crust and hence that this largest recorded instrumental seismic event has to be considered as moderate with respect to those involving a larger fault plane and displacement at the surface. Thus, for an earthquake to rupture the whole seismogenic layer in the Roer Graben, the seismic moment must be at least 2–4×1018 N m (M =6.1–6.4), with a minimum fault W length of 10–15 km. On the other hand, this may also explain why the known historical and instrumental activity alone © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 cannot account for the present-day deformation rate as well as for the rates obtained from geological data. Considering the known seismicity in the graben since 1600 AD and the relationship established by Ahorner (1983) between magnitude and seismic moment, the frequency–moment statistics representing the annual cumulative number of earthquakes N with seismic moment greater than or equal to M is log N= 0 9.43–0.67 log M (in N m). Assuming that the seismicity distri0 bution is associated with the relative motion across simple crustal boundaries, the vertical deformation rate should be only 0.02 mm yr−1 if the maximum seismic moment is 2×1017 N m (M =5.5). Ahorner (1975) pointed out this W discrepancy between seismic and observed deformation rates but he speculated that a large part of the deformation is possibly due to aseismic creep movements. Our palaeoseismic 358 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui Figure 10. (a) Central section of trench I (see Figs 7a and 8a for location). Symbols as in Fig. 9. ( b) Holocene alluvial deposits are affected by the normal fault and 0.5 m of vertical offset can be measured from the visibly displaced units g and e (coarse and fine gravel horizons, respectively). The trench bottom corresponds to the water level. Units f and d are sandy deposits with channel incisions and minor faults. Palaeosoil c, which wedges out against the fault, has registered the last faulting event. The fault and fissures were subsequently penetrated by roots and covered by the b and b∞ units ( brown and reddish palaeosoils). Calibrated 14C dates (AMS, 2s) of charcoal elements provide a time range for the last coseismic displacement. ( b) Upper section of trench II (location in Fig. 7a), displaying two clear fault branches X and XX. The last three faulting events can be retrieved from the colluvial wedges e, d and b. In the downthrown part (with respect to X), alluvial deposits are mainly composed of coarse gravels, except for palaeosoils e1 and a. In the upthrown block, the coarse gravel units g of Middle to Late Pleistocene (Cromerian) age are flexed and faulted. analysis provides evidences that a major part of the deformation rates in the Roer Graben along the Feldbiss Fault are caused by the occurrence of large earthquakes, even though aseismic movements along faults cannot be a priori excluded everywhere. To explain the average Late Pleistocene–Holocene vertical deformation rates of 0.08±0.04 mm yr−1 with the above-mentioned frequency–moment statistics, the occurrence of earthquakes with maximal magnitude M =6.8±0.3 correw 0.7 sponding to a seismic moment of 2×1019 N m is necessary and the calculated return period of such an earthquake in the graben is around 3160±2140 years. These estimations are rough 2570 due to the uncertainties in the calculations of the seismic moment of the earthquakes. For historical earthquakes, it is a difficult task, mainly due to incomplete macroseismic information. For instrumental data, seismic moment is often estimated from magnitude measurements that lead to systematic errors due to the fact that the relationship between the two parameters is not linear and hence events smaller than M =5.0 are underestimated in deformation-rate evaluation S (Johnston 1996a). IM P LI C AT IO N S FO R SE IS M I C H A ZA R D With a thickness of the seismogenic layer of 17 km and an average slip of 0.6 m along the 10 km length of the Bree active fault scarp, the seismic moment of the last identified earthquake is estimated to be a minimum of 3.1×1018 N m, from which a moment magnitude of M =6.3 is inferred. We assume that W this last surface rupturing crisis consisted of a single earthquake; this is favoured by the observations in the two trenches and by the relationship between surface rupture length and slip for the few observed rupturing earthquakes in stable continental regions (Johnston et al. 1994). The occurrence of two slightly smaller earthquakes (M =6.0–6.1) clustered in a W very short period of time is also possible. The length of the fault section which ruptured during a single earthquake is fundamental for the assessment of its magnitude. In our calculation, we used the value of 10 km from field observations of the frontal fault scarp. This value is a minimum because the fault scarp which separates the Campine Plateau from the Roer Graben disappears to the © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben 359 (a) (b) Figure 11. (a) Minor reverse faulting structure associated with liquefaction phenomenon in sandy deposits of the downthrown block (scale in centimetres). (b) Antithetic normal faults affecting sandy deposits in the downthrown block close to the main fault of trench II (scale=50 cm). southeast where it crosses the Maas Valley, but becomes visible again in the Netherlands, reaching a total length of 35 km. Near Bree, this scarp shows a reduced topographic offset and according to the gravimetric anomaly map (Fig. 2a) its © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 direction changes and it divides into several fault scarps disappearing to the north close to the Dutch border. On seismic profiles, the fault is clearly visible (Demyttenaere & Laga 1988) and divides into three branches that are visible in 360 T . Camelbeeck and M. Meghraoui the morphology following the topographic slope gradients. If we consider a rupture length of 35 km, the seismic moment would be 1.1×1019 N m and the related magnitude M =6.6. W Using the relationships established by Wells & Coppersmith (1994) for normal faulting earthquakes, the following magnitude values have been obtained. (1) Considering a surface rupture length of 10 km, M = S 6.18±0.34. This value has to be considered a minimum, as discussed above. (2) Considering a maximum slip displacement of 1 m, M =7.32±0.34. S (3) Considering an average surface displacement of 0.6 m, M =6.63±0.33. S The duration of the seismic cycle and recent deformation rates are critical for the seismic hazard assessment. The elapsed time since the last event ranges from 1110 to 1390 years. The extrapolated geodetic rates of 0.8 mm yr−1 imply a period of 1250 years to generate 1 m of interseismic vertical deformation, which is the maximum value measured along the Bree frontal scarp for the last earthquake. On the other hand, the Late Pleistocene rates measured by Geluk et al. (1994) give a value of 0.15–0.3 mm yr−1 and correspond to an average return period of 3000 years for a large earthquake (M >6.3). w Analysis of the earthquake-related soft-sediment deformation in trench II suggests the occurrence of at least two events in the last 20 ka and of a third event just before 35–28 ka, from which an average return period of 12 000±5000 years is calculated. With a magnitude M =6.3 for the last large earthquake W along the Bree fault, the frequency–moment statistics calculated for the Lower Rhine Embayment suggest an average return period of 1080 years for a similar event in the whole graben and an average return period along the Bree fault of about 30 kyr. This value, between two and four times the return period suggested by the Bree scarp study, questions the extrapolation of the regional frequency–moment statistics to estimate recurrence times of large earthquakes in the Roer Graben. It is of course difficult to discuss this problem without having a minimum of information about the seismogenic behaviour of the other Quaternary faults in the Roer Graben. The identification of surface faulting with repeated coseismic displacements in the Roer Graben and continental Europe is unique, and the importance of these observations lies in their implications for the reliability of seismic hazard assessment for the region. The map of Rosenhauer & Ahorner (1994) is often used as a basis for estimating the seismic hazard of the Lower Rhine Embayment and neighbouring regions. For the Bree area, the map indicates a maximum intensity of 7.25–7.5 (MSK scale) for a return period of 10 kyr. According to the intensity– magnitude relationships established for the continental interior (Johnston 1996b), the epicentral intensity of the Last Bree event might be I=9 for M =6.4. The maximum intensities W proposed previously are thus probably underestimated for this region and for other regions in ‘stable continental Europe’. CON CLU SION S We have presented numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene surface faulting of seismic origin along the Bree fault scarp, which is the morphological expression of the Feldbiss Fault, the southwestern border fault of the Roer Graben. Primary evidence produced by coseismic slip along the fault resulted from a detailed geomorphic analysis and from a study of the stratigraphy in two trenches excavated in different geological contexts. Trench 1 cuts the Holocene deposits of a small river crossing the scarp, in which the offset created by the last earthquakes is measurable, whereas trench II cuts middle Pleistocene deposits where surface faulting and the existence of colluvial wedges are the expression of recent palaeo-earthquakes. The concordance of the surface faulting in the stratigraphy with the frontal fault scarp in the morphology is clearly demonstrated and indicates the extension of surface faulting to at least the 10 km length of the visible frontal scarp. It has been proved that the Feldbiss Fault is an active fault, and we studied it with a methodology identical to that used to study active faults in active zones worldwide. We believe that seismogenic faults in continental Europe have a behaviour comparable with other active structures in continental domains. The only difference in the mechanical behaviour of seismogenic faults in Europe is the duration of the seismic cycle. Our experiment suggests that it probably ranges on average from 7 to 17 kyr along the Bree fault scarp, but we also believe that further palaeoseismic investigations are necessary to obtain better estimations of past earthquake parameters. In contrast to the few other active faults studied in stable continental regions (Crone et al. 1992; Crone et al. 1997a,b), showing a pattern of temporal clustering of earthquakes with one or several events in a short period of time (10–20 kyr) followed by long intervals (>100 kyr) of relatively low activity, the tectonic activity in the Roer Graben seems relatively stable, at least for the last 150 kyr. The existence of earthquake-related surface ruptures in the Roer Graben also provides a unique opportunity to characterize fault behaviour in the continental interior. Many potentially hazardous faults in stable continental regions have subtle geomorphic expressions which are often poorly preserved, making them less conspicuous. Nevertheless, geological and geophysical data lead us to suggest that the surface faulting identified in the Roer Graben is not uncommon and that similar investigations could be undertaken in other areas between the Alps and the North Sea. For instance, other regions with large earthquake potential may exist in the Upper Rhine Graben, because they show clear Quaternary and recent tectonic activity with a total subsidence of 350 m during the Quaternary—a value twice that measured in the Roer Graben—and a present-day vertical deformation rate of 0.5 mm yr–1 (Zippelt & Mälzer 1981). A CKN O W LE DG M ENT S We are grateful to A. Crone and E. Paulissen for fruitful discussions in the field, to N. Ambraseys, W. Aspinall and K. Bonjer, who provided useful comments on a first version of the paper, and to G. Bock, who helped with comments on the preparation of the revised version. We thank D. Jongmans and K. Vanneste for discussions, and K. Vanneste for his help during the preparation of the manuscript and M. Everaerts for the modelling of the gravimetric anomaly. We thank P. M. Grootes and M. J. Nadeau (Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel) and M. Van Strydonck (Institut Royal du Patrimoine Artistique, Bruxelles) for the quick processing of our radiocarbon samples. This work was supported by the Royal © 1998 RAS, GJI 132, 347–362 Holocene surface faulting in the Roer Graben Observatory of Belgium and the European Centre for Geodynamics and Seismology (Luxembourg). R E FER E NCE S Ahorner, L., 1962. Untersuchungen zur quartären Bruchtektonik der Niederrheinischen Bucht, Eiszeitalter Ggw., 13, 24–105. Ahorner, L., 1975. 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