Download Stream 3.1 Marine ecosystem change Stream goals

Australian Antarctic Science Strategic Plan 2011-12 to 2020-21
Stream Implementation Plan
November 2013
Stream 3.1 Marine ecosystem change
Stream goals
To identify the ecological responses and resilience of Southern Ocean ecosystems to the impacts of global change.
To develop cost-effective monitoring approaches to track the impacts of global change and the effectiveness of conservation measures on ecosystems.
Priorities for this stream relate to key outcomes on Southern Ocean marine ecosystems to support CCAMLR, IWC, the Antarctic Treaty, ACAP and the IPCC,
particularly with respect to:
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assessing the current state of key biota and ecosystems, against which change in ecosystem structure and function can be measured;
identifying critical processes, mechanisms and feedbacks that directly influence the population responses of biota to change in their habitats and that will
be critical in the elaboration of models;
designing and undertaking cost-effective field and assessment programs to estimate the effects of fishing and/or the effects of climate change (accounting
for the need to appropriately attribute the causes of change), the outcomes of which will be able to support policy development and decision making; and
developing models that can be used to
a. evaluate management approaches for their ability to conserve biota and/or to maintain ecosystem services in the region despite uncertainty,
b. assess the likelihood of future changes in critical biota and ecosystems
c. provide outputs that can be used in support of management of Southern Ocean ecosystems and /or determining the role of Southern Ocean
ecosystems in the Earth System
The elements of this plan all represent significant gaps, and hence priorities for research. Individual areas have been rated for priority (1, 2 or 3) on the basis of
urgency, impact or sequencing needs.
Key Research Questions:
KRQ 3.1.1 How have Southern Ocean ecosystems responded to environmental change in the past?
KRQ 3.1.3 What evidence is there that the biodiversity and structure of Southern Ocean ecosystems off eastern Antarctica is changing, and how much of this can be
attributed to global change or past exploitation?
Projects currently addressing these questions are:
Project
Chief Investigator
Project Title
4050
So Kawaguchi
Assessing change in krill distribution and abundance in Eastern Antarctica
Project
Chief Investigator
Project Title
4073
Klaus Meiners
Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems Experiment II - an integrated study of physical and ecological sea ice processes off East Antarctica during spring
4078
Leanne Armand
Grass of the Oceans: quantifying biodiversity, environmental and climatic connectivity from a decade-long capture of Southern Ocean diatoms.
4087
Louise Emmerson
Seabird response to environmental variation and change: identifying drivers of key ecological processes
4088
Colin Southwell
Monitoring the status and trends of Antarctic seabirds to improve fisheries management and detect climate change impacts in east Antarctica
4101
Mike Double
Antarctic baleen whale habitat utilisation and linkages to environmental characteristics
4102
Mike Double
Population abundance, trend, structure and distribution of the endangered Antarctic blue whale
4107
Graham Hosie
Southern Ocean Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (SO-CPR Survey)
4116
Rob Massom
Large-scale Change and Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice, and Links with the Ice Sheet
4124
Craig Johnson
Quantification and prediction of marine biodiversity at a range of geographical and ecological scales for spatial protection and management
4184
Karen Miller
Conservation genetics of Antarctic seabirds and seals: population connectivity and past glacial refugia
Research is still required to do the following:
Outcomes
1. Assessment of the state of Southern Ocean ecosystems, at a regional or zonal scale – with priority on areas that will be most informative for the Stream goals
and KRQs.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Complete an archive of available data for key regions/zones of the Southern Ocean. Priority 2
Approach
o Assembly and archiving of existing datasets with the AADC.
ii. Taking into account practical limitations in undertaking field activities, develop tools and approaches for assessing and presenting results of the state of
Southern Ocean ecosystems for use by managers. Priority 1
Approach
o Theoretical development and evaluation of assessment tools and approaches using conceptual, statistical and dynamic modelling.
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iii. Design a cost-effective field program, based on indicators, to assess the state of marine ecosystems in key regions of the Southern Ocean (include a
justification for the selected region or zone). Priority 1
Approaches
o Develop methods for reliably and efficiently sampling different components and/or essential variables of marine ecosystems.
o Evaluate designs of field programs for their ability to contribute to robust assessments.
o When appropriate, undertake pilot field work, potentially using a combination of ship-based, land-based, and/or remote programs to test elements of
prospective designs.
iv. Assess the state of marine ecosystems, or parts thereof, in key regions/zones of the Southern Ocean.
[This will become a priority in a future implementation plan when the results of the priorities above are known.]
Approach
o Appropriately integrated ship-based, land-based, and remote sensing programs in a key region of the Southern Ocean.
2. Identification of biogeographic drivers of key biota, connectivity of different regions and species pools available to sustain benthic and pelagic ecosystems.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Assess the degree of differentiation and location of possible boundaries between populations of dominant benthic and pelagic taxa. Priority 3
Approaches
o Genetic analyses to discriminate populations of key taxa.
o Oceanographic and other modelling to determine ecological connectivity.
ii. Identification of dominant biogeographic provinces and zones and how their location may have evolved to the present distribution. Priority 3
Approach
o Analysis of proxy data to indicate over what time frame the biogeography of the Southern Ocean may have changed, such as analysis of sediment
cores as geochemical proxies for past extent of sea ice and biota.
o Statistical modelling of relationships amongst species and between species and habitat variables.
iii. Assessment of the factors that affect the distribution of species present in different regions. Priority 2
Approach
o Statistical and modelling assessments of the distributions of species, including consideration of connectivity and species physiological limits and life
history characteristics.
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3. Identification of areas of ecological significance.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Identify ecologically significant areas in key areas of the Southern Ocean. Priority 2
Approaches
o Using ecological theory, develop criteria for assessing ecologically significant areas.
o Using available data to identify possible locations of ecologically significant areas.
4. Identification of the ecological effects of past exploitation.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Assessment of the role of fish and marine mammals in Southern Ocean ecosystems and how those ecosystems respond to depletion and subsequent
recovery. Priority 2
Approaches
o Development of conceptual and dynamic models to test and quantify the potential impacts of near extirpation and subsequent recovery of fish and
marine mammal populations.
Key Research Question:
KRQ 3.1.2 What are the potential ecosystem impacts of observed and predicted physical (e.g. ocean currents, upwelling, sea ice) and chemical change (e.g. ocean
acidification, salinity) in the Southern Ocean?
This question is focussed on assessing ecosystem impacts of change, which will need to take account of the potential effects of fishing or other past harvesting on
the ecosystem. Thus, it will need to focus on identifying how the effects of climate change on Southern Ocean ecosystems can be measured efficiently and what
will be a cost-effective and practical design of a field and analytical program to measure and correctly attribute change and differentiate it from the effects of
fishing or other past harvesting.
Projects currently addressing this question are:
Project
Chief Investigator
Project Title
4050
So Kawaguchi
Assessing change in krill distribution and abundance in Eastern Antarctica
4088
Colin Southwell
Monitoring the status and trends of Antarctic seabirds to improve fisheries management and detect climate change impacts in east Antarctica
4102
Mike Double
Population abundance, trend, structure and distribution of the endangered Antarctic blue whale
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Project
Chief Investigator
Project Title
4107
Graham Hosie
Southern Ocean Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (SO-CPR Survey)
4116
Rob Massom
Large-scale Change and Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice, and Links with the Ice Sheet
4124
Craig Johnson
Quantification and prediction of marine biodiversity at a range of geographical and ecological scales for spatial protection and management
Research is still required to do the following:
Outcomes
1. A practical and efficient suite of indicators for measuring change in Southern Ocean ecosystem structure and function.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Identification of practical indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Priority 1
Approaches
o Theoretical assessment, such as using expert knowledge, of different qualitative and quantitative indicators of different aspects of ecosystem structure
and function, where indicators may be field measures or the outputs of statistical methods.
o Use end-to-end ecosystem models to evaluate the utility of different indicators for correctly signalling change.
o Evaluate the utility of existing types of data for detecting change, and how these data types might be improved for this purpose.
o Selection of indicators for potential inclusion in a long-term observing program, subject to evaluating the requirements for a robust field program.
2. Field and analytical program for measuring change.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Identification of locations (at-sea and/or on land) and sampling frequencies for measuring change in marine assemblages, including the effects of ocean
acidification. Priority 1
Approaches
o Develop statistical methods for assessing change from field data (measured remotely, from ships or on land).
o Use data from spatially-explicit physical and/or biogeochemical simulation models to identify where critical changes in habitats may occur.
o Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of designs of possible field programs (which indicators to measure and where and when they need to be measured
combined with the assessment method) to practically and robustly measure change of the structure and function of marine assemblages. Robustness
is determined by the degree to which the indicators will measure change despite uncertainties in the structure and dynamics of the ecosystem.
Ecosystem models will help in this regard.
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Key Research Questions:
KRQ 3.1.4 How might these changes affect the productivity and sustainability of species and the ecosystems?
KRQ 3.1.5 Which key pelagic species and communities are most vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification, and what are the mechanisms of this effect?
These questions focus on contemporary change as well as on what may happen in the future. Ecosystem models will be needed to assess the indirect
consequences of change and how these promulgate through the ecosystem. Importantly, tools are needed to assess the likelihood of future changes and/or states
of critical biota and Southern Ocean marine ecosystems and how those changes might impact on ecosystem services.
There are no projects currently addressing these questions, but this is an area of research in the Ecosystems Impacts program of the Antarctic Climate and
Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre.
Research is required to do the following:
Outcomes
1. Assessment of the likelihood of different states of Southern Ocean ecosystems and the potential status and trajectories of key species.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Model cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on species, populations, assemblages and ecosystems to assess likelihood of different states in the future.
Priority 2
Approaches
o Development of end-to-end ecosystem models that include relevant physical and biological interactions and responses, including critical thresholds.
o Development of analytical and modelling methods for validating models.
ii. Determine key thresholds and/or tipping points for Southern Ocean ecosystems, particularly those that impact on sea ice primary production and
biogeochemical cycles. Priority 2
Approaches
o Use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to assess key factors that could contribute to tipping points.
o Use simulation studies to investigate the efficacy of current management procedures to avoid contributing to a tipping point arising.
2. Improved ability to predict communities and species most likely to be vulnerable to change in physical habitats.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Identification of locations where ocean acidification and/or other habitat changes will occur first. Priority 3
Approaches
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Use data from 4D physical and/or biogeochemical models to identify where critical changes in habitats may occur.
A further requirement of these key research questions and the building of ecosystem models, is to identify critical processes and mechanisms that directly
influence the population dynamics of key biota, particularly in how they would respond to changes in their habitat.
Projects currently addressing this requirement are:
Project
Chief Investigator
Project Title
4008
Andrew McMinn
Sea ice microbial community dynamics in a changing climate
4026
Andrew T. Davidson
Effects of Ocean Acidification on marine microbes in the Southern Ocean
4037
So Kawaguchi
Experimental krill biology: Response of krill to environmental change
4050
So Kawaguchi
Assessing change in krill distribution and abundance in Eastern Antarctica
4051
Delphine Lannuzel
Role of Antarctic sea ice as a natural ocean fertilizer during the spring 2012-13 sea ice research voyage SIPEX-2.
4073
Klaus Meiners
Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems Experiment II - an integrated study of physical and ecological sea ice processes off East Antarctica during spring
4087
Louise Emmerson
Seabird response to environmental variation and change: identifying drivers of key ecological processes
4101
Mike Double
Antarctic baleen whale habitat utilisation and linkages to environmental characteristics
4124
Craig Johnson
Quantification and prediction of marine biodiversity at a range of geographical and ecological scales for spatial protection and management
4127
Donna Roberts
A Free Ocean CO2 Enrichment Experiment (FOCE) to estimate effects of ocean acidification on benthic habitats
4140
Kerrie Swadling
Secondary production associated with sea ice during SIPEX II: biomass, diversity and trophic links between lower trophic level invertebrates.
Research is still required to do the following:
Outcomes
1. Improved parameterisation of sea ice zone primary production in ecosystem and biogeochemical models.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Determine physical and biological drivers of phytoplankton blooms at retreating ice edges in the marginal ice zone. Priority 1
Approach
o Multi-disciplinary process studies, including: fast ice sites, ecosystem models, spatial-statistical analyses, historical data recovery and database
development, remote sensing and under-ice studies.
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2. Efficient and realistic representation of krill and other secondary producers in ecosystem and food web models.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Vulnerabilities of krill to change in temperature, pCO2, sea ice and composition and production of phytoplankton. Priority 1
Approaches
o Laboratory studies examining the impacts of these factors on krill growth, reproduction and survivorship.Genetic analyses to discriminate populations
of key taxa.
o Simulation studies to examine the relative importance of different factors in the population dynamics of krill, including using results from krill aquaria
studies to develop biologically plausible models to represent krill population responses to environment change.
o Field studies on the relationship between krill and key habitat variables, based where possible on results from laboratory and/or simulation studies.
ii. Behaviour of krill in response to habitat attributes, predators, vessels and fishing activities. Priority 3
Approach
o Field and laboratory studies examining krill behaviour in response to different stimuli that may significantly affect survivorship and or productivity, as
well as fishing or sampling activities such as determining net catchability.
iii. Productivity of zooplankton. Priority 2
Approaches
o Field and laboratory studies to estimate key life history and productivity parameters for dominant zooplankton.
o Analytical studies of available samples to estimate food web linkages amongst lower trophic levels.
3. Efficient and realistic representation of fish and squid in ecosystem and food web models.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Productivity of myctophid fish, Pleurogramma, squid and other abundant mesopelagic taxa. Priority 2
Approaches
o Field and laboratory studies to estimate key life history and productivity parameters for dominant mesopelagic taxa such as myctophids,
Pleurogramma and squid.
o Data analysis approaches to examine the efficacy of extracting myctophid fish data from existing acoustic records.
4. Efficient and realistic representation of marine mammals and birds in ecosystem and food web models.
Priorities for new research proposals
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Assessment of functional relationships between marine mammals and birds and their prey. Priority 2
Approach
o Assessments of plausible functional relationships for dominant marine mammals and birds using ecological theory, dynamic models and/or available
data.
ii. Behaviour of marine mammals and birds in relation to physical habitats and prey availability in summer and winter. Priority 1
Approaches
o Analyses of available data and/or the use of theoretical approaches to develop hypotheses on the factors that influencing foraging behaviour of
predators.
o Tracking studies to evaluate whether foraging activity is related to colony location or habitat/prey variables or both.
o For inclusion in ecosystem and food web models, efficient models of foraging activity in different seasons for dominant predators.
iii. Food/energy consumption of dominant marine mammals and birds. Priority 2
Approaches
o Methodological or field studies of diet to fill gaps for major taxa, where these studies will significantly contribute to the development of ecosystem,
conservation or management models and assessments.
o Simultaneous in situ studies of tracked animals and prey field to develop predator-prey models.
o Development of energetics models for priority species.
5. Efficient and realistic representation of bentho-pelagic coupling in ecosystem models.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Development of production models for benthos for use in coupled benthic-pelagic models. Priority 2
Approach
o Use available data, literature and dynamic models to develop models of benthic production.
6. Improved ability to predict benthic and pelagic species and assemblages most likely to be vulnerable to ocean acidification.
Priorities for new research proposals
i. Species and assemblage response to acidification. Priority 1
Approaches
o Development of tools, including molecular approaches, to estimate responses of species and assemblages to increased pCO2.
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Laboratory or field manipulative experiments to measure taxa-specific and assemblage responses to specific effects of increased pCO2, including
acidification.
Please note:
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The Australian Antarctic program does not have the logistical capability to support all aspects of these implementation plans simultaneously.
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Stream implementation plans represent the current research priorities and approaches.
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Alignment to implementation plans is an important criterion in assessing research proposals. As proposals are being developed, Theme Leaders are available
to provide feedback on specific priorities for future years including locations, approaches and opportunities to participate in coordinated field campaigns.
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Projects mentioned above can be viewed on the AAD web site’s database of current and previous projects.
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