Download Attwater`s Prairie-Chicken Business Plan

National Fish and Wildlife Foundation
Business Plan for Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken
November 4, 2008
NFWF Prairie Chicken Biz Plan.indd 1
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What Is a Business Plan?
A business plan serves two broad, primary functions. First, it provides specific information to those
(e.g., prospective investors) not familiar with the proposed or existing business, including its goals and
the management strategy and financial and other resources necessary to attain those goals. Second,
a business plan provides internal guidance to those who are active in the operation of the business,
allowing all individuals to understand where the business is headed and the means by which it will
get there. The plan helps keep the business from drifting away from its goals and key actions through
careful articulation of a strategy.
In the context of the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation’s conservation efforts, business plans
represent the strategies necessary to meet the conservation goals of Keystone and other initiatives. Each business plan emphasizes the type(s) and magnitude of the benefits that will be realized
through the initiative, the monetary costs involved, and the potential obstacles (risks) to achieving
those gains. Each of the Foundation’s business plans has three core elements:
Conservation Outcomes: A concrete description of the outcomes to which the Foundation
and grantees will hold ourselves accountable.
Implementation Plan with Strategic Priorities and Performance Measures: A
description of the specific strategies that are needed to achieve our conservation outcome
and the quantitative measures by which we will measure success and make it possible to
adaptively revise strategies in the face of underperformance.
Funding and Resource Needs: An analysis of the financial, human and organizational
resources needed to carry out these activities.
The strategies and activities discussed in this plan do not represent solely the Foundation’s view of
the actions necessary to achieve the identified conservation goals. Rather, it reflects the consensus
or majority view of the many federal, state, academic or organization experts that we consulted with
during plan development. In developing this business plan, the Foundation acknowledges that there are other ongoing and
planned conservation activities that are aimed at, or indirectly benefit, keystone targets. This business plan is not meant to duplicate ongoing efforts but, rather, to strategically invest in areas where
management, conservation, or funding gaps might exist in those broader conservation efforts. Hence,
the aim of the business plan is to support the beneficial impacts brought about by the larger conservation community.
November 4, 2008 | i
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Summary
In the late 1880s, a million Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens were spread across eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. The species was listed as endangered in 1967 when slightly more than 1,000 individuals
existed. The Attwater Prairie Chicken National Wildlife Refuge was created in 1972 to provide a secure
environment in which prairie-chickens could live. But those actions did not seem to slow the pace at
which the population was declining. Reproduction and survival were low, even on the refuge, because
of the biological problems caused by low population size — including breakdown of the highly evolved
social system; loss of genetic diversity; and disproportionate effects of severe weather, disease, and
predation. In 1992 with only 456 birds remaining and facing the likelihood that Attwater’s PrairieChickens would become extinct without intense and highly invasive management efforts, a last-ditch
attempt was made to save this species through initiation of an aggressive captive-breeding program.
The intent was to supplement the wild population to a level that helped restore the biological integrity
of the species, such that it would become self-sustaining.
Today, only 75 of these endangered birds remain in the wild on just two remnant prairie fragments
in eastern Texas (Texas City Prairie Preserve and Attwater Prairie Chicken National Wildlife Refuge)
and on an experimental release site on private ranches in the Refugio-Goliad region of south Texas.
Though the existence of wild birds today can be attributed directly to the ambitious captive breeding
program, the efforts have not been well-funded, resulting in limited resources, staffing, and dedication to necessary recovery practices. Some 200 birds remain in captivity and serve as breeding stock
and research subjects. Fortunately, real obstacles to population increases have been identified, allowing for future work to be strategically directed at addressing those problems. The immediate threats
to be resolved include:
●●Inadequate captive breeding and rearing facilities. Unnatural conditions at existing facilities (small spaces, lack of natural grasses, processed foods) have resulted in reduced mating ability, behaviorally maladjusted chicks, and diets that do not adequately mimic food
taken in the wild, thus affecting health, survival, and reintroduction success.
●●Insufficient knowledge on genetics, disease, breeding, and nutrition.
Once behavioral and physiological issues have been resolved, one principal remaining threat needs to
be addressed:
●●Low quality habitats that results from fragmentation, spread of invasive plants, and inadequate habitat management.
This initiative seeks to re-establish the foundation from which the population of Attwater’s PrairieChicken can once again become viable. Through a strategic, 10-year, $17.6 million investment, NFWF
and its partners expect to increase the free-ranging population of prairie-chickens by 1,200%, to
more than 1,000 birds. Three key strategies will be used to address the identified threats, including:
(a) Development and enhancement of facilities that minimize the problems of a captive environment and maximize production of healthy offspring;
(b) Creation of a rigorous research program that identifies viable solutions to the physiological,
behavioral, and genetic problems that plague this population;
(c)Implementation of aggressive habitat management that increases food availability for
prairie-chickens, and provides secure cover necessary for prairie-chicken to complete
life history cycles.
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Contents
What Is a Business Plan? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Conservation Need. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Conservation Outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Implementation Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Funding Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Evaluation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Long-Term NFWF Support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Appendix 1 — Tier 4 Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Appendix 2 — Ancillary Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Appendix 3 — About this Document. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
November 4, 2008 | v
Conservation Need
A century ago, one million Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido attwateri) roamed over
six million acres of coastal prairie from southwestern Louisiana to central Texas. Known for its dazzling mating display involving dances, booming calls, and bright colors, the species presented a spectacular sight each spring in the coastal prairies and grasslands.
Unfortunately, habitat loss and fragmentation stemming from development and agriculture and, to a
lesser extent, overharvesting, caused a massive decline in prairie-chickens. The crash precipitated a
nearly complete loss of this population’s biological integrity; that is, because of extremely low population size and a decrease in genetic diversity, this species can no longer sustain itself in the face of
disease, genetic isolation, and random events such as predation and severe weather.
The species was listed as endangered in 1967 when slightly more than 1,000 individuals existed. The
Attwater Prairie Chicken National Wildlife Refuge was created in 1972 to provide a secure environment in which prairie-chickens could live. Since then, the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken has continued to
decline. Reproduction and survival were low, even on the refuge, because of the biological problems
caused by low population size — including breakdown of the highly evolved social system; loss of
genetic diversity; and disproportionate effects of severe weather, disease, and predation. In 1992
with only 456 birds remaining and facing the likelihood that Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens would become
extinct without intense and highly invasive management efforts, a last-ditch attempt was made to
save this species through initiation of an aggressive captive-breeding program. The intent was to supplement the wild population to a level that helped restore the biological integrity of the species, such
that it would become self-sustaining.
Today, only 75 of these endangered birds remain in the wild on just two remnant prairie fragments
in eastern Texas: Texas City Prairie Preserve (40 miles south of Houston on Galveston Bay) and the
APC National Wildlife Refuge (60 miles west of Houston near Sealy). An experimental release of
Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens was initiated in 2008 on private ranches in the Refugio-Goliad region of
south Texas.
Though the existence of wild birds today can be attributed to the ambitious captive breeding program, the efforts have not been well-funded, resulting in limited resources, staffing, and dedication
to necessary recovery practices. Some 200 birds remain in captivity and serve as breeding stock and
research subjects. Fortunately, real obstacles to population increases have been identified, allowing
for future work to be strategically directed at addressing those problems. The immediate threats to
be resolved include:
●●Inadequate captive breeding and rearing facilities. Unnatural conditions at existing
facilities (small spaces, lack of natural grasses, processed foods) have resulted in reduced
mating ability, behaviorally maladjusted chicks, and diets that do not adequately mimic
food taken in the wild, thus affecting health, survival, and reintroduction success.
●●Insufficient knowledge on genetics, disease, breeding, and nutrition. Lack of
rigorous studies and a thorough understanding of the birds’ needs have made the captive
breeding programs far less successful than is necessary to recover this species.
Once behavioral and physiological issues have been resolved, one remaining threat needs to be
addressed:
●●Low quality habitats that results from fragmentation, spread of invasive plants, and inadequate habitat management.
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Conservation Outcomes
This initiative seeks to re-establish the foundation from which the population of Attwater’s PrairieChicken can once again become viable. Partners who developed this business plan have outlined a
15-year plan that includes four “tiers” of management strategies, ordered chronologically by importance to attaining the desired increase in the prairie-chicken population. In brief (for more details, see
“Implementation Plan“ below), the Tier 1 strategy addresses brood production and survival, mostly
of captive birds; Tier 2 represents projects focused on habitat management; Tier 3 includes the dual
purpose of upgrading existing captive propagation facilities and creation of habitat dispersal corridors;
and the Tier 4 strategy includes both land acquisition and research issues that may depend upon successes in earlier stages (and, hence, the reason it is chronologically placed towards the end). The
NFWF business plan focuses on a strategic, 10-year, $17.6 million investment that is expected to
increase the free-ranging population of prairie-chickens by 1,200%, to 1,017 birds (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Expected changes in Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken population size based upon various levels
of targeted financial investment over a 15-year period. Each Tier (1, 2 and 3) represents a pool of
management strategies that are designed to address specific threats to the population of prairiechickens and which are expected to produce the specified increases in population size (for specified
costs over a 15-year timeframe). The NFWF business plan focuses on a $17.6 million investment that
is indicated by the Tier 1-2 line within the shaded 10-year timeframe.
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Implementation Plan
The remaining population of Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken is currently limited by poor reproductive
success in the wild, which is thought to be associated with an inability of female prairie-chickens to
raise young and independent juveniles to survive on their own. Virtually all prairie-chickens in the
wild have been hatched and partially reared in captivity. The prevailing hypothesis of the Attwater’s
Prairie-Chicken Recovery Team is that conditions and experiences in captivity do not offer prairiechickens the nutritional or behavioral benefits necessary to survive in the wild and reproduce and
raise young successfully. This business plan has two major components: those actions that are
directed towards birds in captivity and those that are carried out in natural habitats (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Logic model that depicts the relationships among factors that currently limit the viability
of Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens and the broad suite of actions that are necessary to recover this species. The main threat is the inability of prairie-chickens to survive and reproduce in the wild, which
is believed to stem from both production of maladapted chicks (in captivity) and (to a lesser extent)
less than optimal habitat into which young prairie-chickens are introduced.
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Activities carried out in captivity (Figure 3) focus on addressing threats posed by (a) nutritional, genetic,
physiological, and behavioral deficiencies; and (b) inadequate rearing environments. The logic model
suggests that discovering and implementing solutions to nutritional, genetic, physiological, and behavioral problems, as well as creation of space more amenable to rearing viable young, will result in production of higher quality birds which, in turn, will increase the survival of young, the ability of mothers
to raise young, and the propensity of captive reared young to raise their own young in the wild.
Figure 3. Logic model outlining the actions and outcomes associated with captive Attwater’s PrairieChickens. The model portrays the relationships among factors that currently limit the viability of captive birds (e.g., nutrition, disease, genetics) and the actions (research and expanded and improved
facilities) that will offer the desired outcomes (e.g., increased survival of young in the wild).
Indicators are those measures by which we will assess intermediate outcomes.
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Efforts carried out in the wild (Figure 4) focus on three primary activities: (a) understanding (through
research) the habitat conditions that help ensure adequate reproduction in the wild; (b) managing
habitat to maximize benefits for prairie-chickens (e.g., control of non-native plants, maintaining disturbance regimes, and preventing contaminants from reducing insect food supplies); and (c) expanding the habitat into which prairie-chickens can be introduced and allowed to naturally disperse. The
result of those actions is expected to be a higher quality and quantity of grassland habitat which, in
turn, will better enable hens to raise young and for young to survive to breeding age.
Figure 4. Logic model outlining the actions and outcomes associated with wild Attwater’s PrairieChickens. The model portrays the habitat-related conditions that might currently limit the ability of
wild birds to reproduce and survive (e.g., non-native plants, fire ants, insect abundance) and the
actions (e.g., research and habitat management) that will most effectively help us gain the desired
outcomes offer the desired outcomes (e.g., increased survival of young in the wild). Indicators are
those measures by which we will assess intermediate outcomes.
The logic models above describe the relationship between desired outcomes, threats that limit attainment of those outcomes, and actions necessary to abate the threats. The models do not, however,
indicate the necessary sequential implementation of those actions. That sequence is critical for two
reasons. First, because of uncertainty associated with many of our hypotheses, detailed research is
necessary up-front to identify the causes behind the behavioral and physiological failures of captivereared birds. And second, the tenuous nature of this population (it is the rarest bird in the United
States) indicates that a modern breeding and experimentation facility is needed to begin to produce
more birds in better condition.
November 4, 2008 | 5
We propose four key steps, or “tiers,” through which this plan will be implemented. The plan
addresses the first 10 years in this process, which is anticipated to increase the population to a level
at which it can be sustained and begin to expand. In that light, the business plan does not directly
address Tier 4 activities because those actions are dependent upon the outcomes of the first three
tiers (e.g., finding solutions to physiological problems), are of lower benefit (e.g., predator control),
and are not necessary to implement for at least 10 years (e.g., land acquisition). Tier 4 strategies
and budgets are outlined in Appendix 1.
Tier 1: Finding and Implementing Solutions to Underlying
Husbandry Problems
The failure of introduced Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens to reproduce successfully in the wild
suggests severe limitations to the existing approach to husbandry or habitat management
The physiological and behavioral problems of captive-reared prairie-chickens are numerous. More
than one-third of chicks die during the first 10 days, and is often caused by enteritis or “failure to
thrive.” Even when given a several week “head start” in protective pens placed in native habitat on
the refuge and offered supplemental food, annual survival rates are only ~15% for captive-reared
prairie-chickens. Predation and starvation account for much of that mortality. Of the more than 1,100
prairie-chickens released into the Attwater Prairie Chicken National Wildlife Refuge (APCNWR) and
Texas City Prairie Preserve (TCPP) between 1995-2007, only one nest produced by those birds was
able to successfully produce young that reached breeding age. The leading hypotheses for the poor
brood survival are: (a) poor habitat quality; (b) maladaptive parental behavior attributable to the captive environment; (c) physiological problems attributable to captive environment; and (d) disease and
parasites. Tier 1 projects (Table 1) are most urgently needed, as those projects directly address the
known limitations and threats to prairie-chickens.
Lack of adequate facilities and dedicated staff time are believed to be underlying many of the problems associated with captive-reared prairie-chickens. Production of young that are maladapted to the
natural environment is seen as the primary reason that the prairie-chicken population has not grown
through the captive propagation program. The action of highest priority is creation of a new breeding facility that can offer the space, environment, and dedicated staff necessary to develop husbandry
standards and productivity to the level required for recovery of this species. A new facility, designed
to mimic the natural environment and offering adequate space for experimentation, along with operating costs are expected to require a $5 million investment over 10 years (Table 1). Sutton Avian
Research Center (University of Oklahoma) in Bartlesville, Oklahoma has been identified as a prime
host for such a facility.
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Table 1. Tier 1 projects represent those actions that serve as the primary foundation for future
population growth of Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken, and require implementation during the
first five years of this initiative.
Threat/Problem
Addressed
Estimated Outcome
Additional
Birds*
10-Year Cost
($ million)
New, dedicated
breeding facility
(captive)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment
Production of 300 chicks/
year beginning in Year
5. Research directed at
producing chicks that are
better adapted to survive
and reproduce in the wild.
1,800
5.00
Expand and
upgrade existing
facilities (captive)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment
Production of 125 chicks/
year beginning in Year 5.
1,000
1.91
Disease
management
research (captive)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment
Reduce disease-related
morbidity to 10% (from
>30%).
925
1.00
Husbandry
research on
nutrition, egg
production,
behavior (captive)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment
Increase number of
chicks per clutch alive at
8 weeks to 7 (from 5; a
40% increase).
1,400
0.75
Brood survival
research (wild
population)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment and
habitat quality
Replacement
reproduction (selfsustaining) after 5 years.
1,000
3.00
6,125
11.65
Action
TOTAL
* Represents the number of additional prairie-chickens that are added to the wild and captive populations based upon the
specific actions that are taken. Note that discrepancy between projected outcome after 10 years (=1,017 wild adults) and
total birds added (in this table) is due to estimated natural mortality and approximately half of all birds remaining in captivity
to serve as breeding and experimentation stock.
Tier 2: Habitat Management
While the spatial extent of habitat is adequate for Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken for the
foreseeable future, that habitat will require intense management to be maintained in a
favorable state
Approximately 100,000 acres (both public and private) are currently available to support prairiechickens in eastern Texas. On average, Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens require 50 acres per bird to carry
out their life history requirements, so the 75 wild birds that currently use APCNWR and TCPP (total
of about 13,000 acres) have adequate habitat. Experimental releases in the Refugio-Goliad region of
South Texas incorporates another 80,000-90,000 acres of private ranches whose owners are agreeable to releases. However, within 5 years, ecological succession (occupation of grasslands by woody
plants) and invasion by non-native plants will render about half of the total acreage unusable by
prairie-chickens. Within 10 years, very little of the 100,000 acres will be unusable unless active management is carried out. Projects identified under the Tier 2 strategy (Table 2) emphasize targeted
habitat management in high priority areas that will maintain quality habitat for the eventual release
of prairie-chickens within 10 years. Once prairie-chickens occupy these lands, active habitat management (e.g., chemical control of invasive plants, controlled burns to remove shrubs and trees) will be
required every 3-5 years.
November 4, 2008 | 7
Table 2. Tier 2 projects for management of habitat.
Action
Habitat management
Threat/Problem
Addressed
Estimated
Outcome
Additional
Birds*
10-Year Cost
($ million)
Loss of habitat quality
due to non-native plants,
invasive trees and shrubs,
and other threats.
High quality habitat on
110,000 acres
850
5.95
850
5.95
TOTAL
* Represents the number of additional prairie-chickens that are capable of being supported on an annual basis as a result
of the specific actions that are taken. If no habitat management actions are taken outside of the APCNWR, eastern Texas
will not have adequate habitat available to support the Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens that are expected to be released under
Tier 1 projects.
Tier 3: Dedicated Husbandry Staff and Development of Dispersal Corridors
Attaining maximum productivity of captive Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens will
require husbandry staff that are dedicated full-time to that endeavor. Creating a
viable, self-sustaining population will mean that habitat corridors will need to be
secured and maintained.
Tier 1 projects (Table 1) included expanding several existing facilities to allow for greater opportunity
for production of chicks. Part of the Tier 3 strategy (Table 3) is to put in place dedicated animal science staff that work full-time on the prairie-chicken re-introduction. Currently, staff that work on
prairie-chickens also are responsible for care of up to a dozen other species in their zoos or wildlife
centers, leading to less attention to the prairie-chickens. Also included in Tier 3 are periodic renovations that need to take place in these intensely used facilities (Table 3). Currently, those sorts of renovations are not routinely done, leading to part of the problem associated with maladapted prairiechicken chicks. While these Tier 3 projects are not necessary to address in the first few years of this
10-year initiative, if success is seen under the Tier 1 strategy, then these tier 3 projects offer a real
opportunity to gain tremendous ground in chick production during the latter stages of the initiative.
Also included here is the need to identify and secure lands that will be necessary to allow for prairiechicken movements among the core habitat areas (Table 3). Dispersal leads to gene flow, which is
critical for maintaining genetic diversity and health of any species, especially those like the Atwater’s
Prairie-Chicken that persists at relatively low levels. Loss of genetic diversity through inbreeding has
been shown to lead to reduced reproduction and maladapted populations. The network of core areas
and corridors needs to be spread over 100 linear miles and may require upwards of 40,000 acres of
quality grassland habitat positioned between core habitat areas. Certainly all those acres do not have
to be put in place in the next 10 years, but a reasonable estimate of what will be necessary during
that period has been calculated as 8,000 acres (converting brush to grassland0.
8 | November 4, 2008
Table 3. Tier 3 projects for increasing husbandry capabilities through dedicated staff and
renovation of facilities. Also seen as a priority during the latter half of the10-year project
period is creation of the beginnings of a series of corridors that connect primary core
habitat areas.
Action
Threat/Problem
Addressed
Estimated
Outcome
Additional
Birds*
10-Year
Cost
($ million)
Additional
husbandry staff
(captive)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment
Increase productivity
to 15 eggs/hen; 45%
survival rate of eggs
to 8 weeks
930
2.50
On-going facility
renovation
(captive)
Poor brood survival
attributable to captive
environment
Increase number of
chicks per clutch alive
at 8 weeks to 7 (from
5; a 40% increase).
0
0.50
Creation of
dispersal
corridors (wild
population)
Poor brood survival and
reproduction due to low
habitat quality
Increased dispersal,
leading to greater
survival and
reproduction
?
1.07
930
4.07
TOTAL
* Represents the number of additional prairie-chickens that are added to the wild and captive populations based upon the specific actions that are taken.
Risk: Obstacles to Success
Risk is an uncertain event or condition which, if it occurs, could have a negative effects on an initiative’s desired outcome. We have identified seven risk event categories (see box below) that could
substantially impede progress towards our stated population goal for the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken
during the next 10 years. Risks associated with threats that are not likely to be manifested in that
time period, but are likely to have a significant influence on our ability to attain the desired population outcomes, are also identified. These seven categories are evaluated below in the context achieving our stated prairie-chicken population goals.
Regulatory. Chances are low that regulatory or policy changes will impede the conservation activities in this plan because the plan has already been constructed to account for those existing conditions. For example, existing regulations and policies that pertain to endangered species already heavily promote the voluntary cooperation of private landowners (rather than governmental mandates for
their participation). Current and planned efforts are using that model of cooperation to develop several large core habitat areas for prairie-chickens. Changes that would make existing laws or policies
less compatible with prairie-chicken conservation do not appear likely in the foreseeable future.
Financial. Bringing about a 1,200% increase in prairie-chicken populations in only 10 years requires
an intense level of funding, nearly triple that that now is directed towards Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens.
Two types of financial risk events have potential to prevent long-term security of prairie-chicken populations. Insufficient generation of funds by both NFWF and its partners during the course of this program is certainly a concern. In fact, the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken Recovery Team already has raised
the probable difficulty of meeting match ratios of 2:1 (what is projected in the business plan). In the
first grants cycle open under the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken Keystone Initiative (2008), funding
requests were matched at only a 1:1, a ratio short of expectations. We anticipate that, as NFWF
November 4, 2008 | 9
grants for prairie-chicken conservation become more competitive, the match ratio will increase.
However, given the small geographic area covered by this initiative and the lack of overlap with other
major natural resources, we expect partners to have difficulty raising matching funds. The second
type of financial risk involves the ability of the prairie-chicken partnership to maintain necessary funding for conservation activities once NFWF funding is no longer available, regardless of whether our
population target has been met. For example, habitat management will require $7-10 per acre for
each of the 300,000 acres (every 3-5 years) that are expected to be needed to fully recover this species. Partners already are using and, in the future, hope to more fully develop relationships with
USDA Farm Bill incentives programs for habitat management on private ranches. Access
to Farm Bill funds will be important to manCategories of Risk Events
age these financial risks.
The extent by which the following risk events
Overall, both short-term and long-term finanimpede progress towards desired initiative
cial shortfalls appear to be likely risks of this
outcomes.
initiative, though those shortfalls are not
Regulatory. Existing or potential future laws,
likely to be devastating to this initiative. The
regulations, policies, or judicial decisions.
Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken is an truly iconic
American species and is the rarest species
Financial. Level or stability of financial
in North America. That status alone gives
resources necessary to implement strategies
it high visibility to both the federal and muloutlined in business plan.
tiple state governments, and to numerous
Environmental. Biological or environmental.
non-governmental organizations in Texas.
Through this initiative, regular updates on
Scientific. Scientific understanding of the
progress towards population outcomes are
threats or necessary conservation actions.
expected to keep the prairie-chicken “visible”
to our partners and other prospective fundSocial. Social conditions or considerations.
ing sources.
Economic. Existing or anticipated economic
Environmental. Small population size
factors or conditions.
and restricted geographic distribution are
Institutional. Existing or anticipated
two factors that place meeting our populainstitutional capabilities.
tion goals at relatively high risk, and this
has always been the greatest concern of
the Recovery Team. This business plan has
laid out a strategy to begin to more effectively mitigate those risks. By creating more facilities that
will house the captive prairie-chickens, it becomes much less likely that a disease or environmental
event (e.g., hurricane) will destroy the captive population, or any large proportion of it. In addition,
creation of additional core populations through enhanced husbandry and aggressive habitat management will allow the wild population to occupy a broader geographic range, thereby reducing the
chances that small-scale predation events (e.g., coyotes) or weather-driven events (e.g., wildfire,
drought) will impact the remaining, small population.
Scientific. Scientific understanding of the underlying causes of low prairie-chicken population viability lies at the heart of this initiative. Though research forms a major portion of this business plan, the
uncertainty associated with our ability to identify and implement actions that increase survival and
fecundity of Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens adds tremendous risk to this initiative. The effort to recover
Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken has engaged the world’s experts on gallinaceous bird biology. Our business
plan has stimulated three partners to hold meetings in the North Africa to learn from regional efforts
there on captive propagation and release programs.
Social. Eastern Texas is expected to be neither the site of a large human population boom in the
immediate future, nor susceptible to any other large-scale demographic or social shift (e.g., large
ranches transitioning to “ranchettes”). Hence, social risks are not seen as great for this initiative.
10 | November 4, 2008
Economic. Agriculture is a predominant land use in east Texas, so is susceptible to changes in the
commodity markets. There is risk involved in this region because agricultural changes, including
prevalence of ranching, could result in a shift in attitudes of private landowners who currently desire
native coastal grasslands (that offer quality habitat for both cattle and prairie-chickens). Shifts in the
demand for biofuels could stimulate a change (for the worse in the context of grassland bird conservation) in the distribution and composition of grassland, but the current cost of producing biofuels in
east Texas does not make that land use competitive with more traditional sources of power generation. Changes in greenhouse gas emission laws, however, could tip the balance in favor of alternative
sources of energy.
Institutional. Federal and state wildlife agencies, and non-governmental groups have shown keen
interest in Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens because of its endangered status. Those groups have devoted
significant resources towards its recovery and we do not anticipate that those efforts will diminish.
A summary of the risk entailed in this business plan is presented in Figure 5. Given the relatively
high risks associated with the scientific expectations outlined in this business plan, our analyses suggest that we stand a relatively high chance of meeting less than half of our stated population goal
during our 10 year timeframe. We also face the possibility of numerous factors contributing to smaller
deficits in that population projection.
Figure 5. The likelihood that at least one negative event of low (20% or less of goal affected),
moderate ( 21-40% of goal affected) ,or high (41-100% of goal affected) magnitude will occur during
this initiative. Probabilities for each magnitude were derived by estimating the probability (to nearest
10%) and impact (using five categories, but reduced to three in this graphic) of different risk events
(with at least a 10% chance of occurring), then calculating the probability that at least one event of
each different severity would occur.
November 4, 2008 | 11
Funding Needs
The population changes that we have estimated to occur through implementation of this plan are
dependent, in large part, on the level of financial investment. This business plan is built upon the
assumption that adequate funds can be raised on an annual basis to affect a 1,200% increase in
the population of Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken over a 10-year period. That sum, representing additional
funding above that currently directed towards prairie-chickens, is equivalent to an investment of $17.6
million over the 10-year period, and can be roughly broken down into the budget categories identified
in Tables 1 and 2. Success at the Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels within 10 years might dictate investment in
Tier 3 (Table 3) strategies at an additional cost of $4.065 million. The annual budgets for each of the
first 5 years of this initiative will be heavily weighted with Tier 1 projects (e.g., new facility, research)
and, in total, will consume approximately three-fourths of the funds (approximately $8 million) budgeted in Tier 1 over the 10-year period. In contrast, Tier 2 projects will be heavily emphasized in the
last 5 years of the 10-year period. The rationale here is that managing habitat for additional prairiechickens should be undertaken only once we are confident that we have solved the physiological and
behavioral issues, and prairie-chickens are likely to begin to thrive in these grassland habitats.
The $17.6 million budget is saddled with an important, if not costly, expense — development and
operation of a new facility for captive propagation. We are seeking to cover that expense, estimated
at $5 million, from private donors. Of the remainder ($12.6 million), fully one-third ($420,000) needs
to be raised by NFWF annually. Federal appropriations directed towards this initiative are expected
to be approximately $200,000/year (Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken is an Endangered Species and, as
such, is a high priority for the USFWS). The remaining $220,000/year needs to be realized through
other existing or new funding sources. The existing NFWF Charter program, ConocoPhillips SPIRIT
of Conservation Migratory Bird Program, is an especially well matched source of funding. NFWF’s
Impact-Directed Environmental Account (IDEA) Program, which manages funds that originate from
court orders, settlement of legal cases, regulatory permits, and mitigation plans, also could serve as a
funding source for coastal prairie projects, though currently it does not appear that adequate overlap
exists with any existing accounts.
12 | November 4, 2008
Evaluation
Timely success of this initiative requires dedication to an evaluation process that focuses on individual
projects, each of the five strategies, and the collective outcomes across all projects. At each level, we
will determine whether the planned actions are achieving the desired results.
Individual projects funded by NFWF will be evaluated based upon the anticipated outcomes identified in the full proposal. Typically, individual grantees will provide a summary of results and outcomes
directly to NFWF as part of each grant agreement. However, periodically, individual projects will be
evaluated by NFWF or independent 3rd party evaluators. Achieving the stated outcomes is obviously
the desired result of these projects but, in those cases where outcomes were not realized, it is equally
important to identify the reasons behind the discrepancy between expected and observed outcomes.
Because of the numerous extraneous factors operating on biological populations and the time lags
between conservation actions and actual changes in population size, the contribution of an individual
project to the desired outcome of a larger prairie-chicken population can rarely be directly measured.
Rather, in most situations, indicators associated with potential population change will be used to evaluate the level of success of a project (Figures 3 and 4).
Projects under each of the two principal strategic tiers (Tables 1 and 2) are intended to collectively
produce results that are meaningful and measureable whether those were directly or indirectly meant
to result in an increase in prairie-chicken numbers. Certainly, not all individual projects will produce
the intended results. Some will fail for reasons that could have been controlled and others will fail for
reasons that were largely uncontrollable. But, projects that use a similar strategy to address a limiting factor should collectively make progress towards the intended short- and long-term targets. The
collaborative nature of this initiative will readily allow for periodic evaluations of the effectiveness of
each strategy and its contribution to the overall desired outcome.
Many projects in the first several years of this initiative will focus on identifying solutions to behavioral or physiological threats. As such, those projects are not likely to result directly in major gains in
population size, or reproductive output, or survival. Those efforts do serve, however, to guide future
husbandry and management actions that can potentially impact a major segment of this population.
Hence, gains in knowledge and identification of solutions will be a key indicator of success.
Finally, the combined results of setting in motion the various strategies are intended to produce a
positive trajectory in the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken population and, given the captive nature of this
population and the small umber of birds in the wild, we will have the sure ability to document changes in our captive and wild populations.
November 4, 2008 | 13
Long-Term NFWF Support
This business plan lays out a strategy to achieve clear outcomes that benefit Attwater’s PrairieChickens over a 10-year period. At that time, it is expected that NFWF and its partners will have a
clear indication of whether the desired outcomes of the business plan have been, or even can be,
met. We expect that research and conservation actions taken under this initiative will have brought
about a profound change in ways to manage prairie-chickens, and that that new management will
have resulted in a growing, and self-sustaining population of Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken. Our expectation is that we will have set the population in a positive direction such that maintaining those
successes will be possible without further (or greatly reduced) NFWF funding. To help ensure that
the population and other gains made in 10 years won’t be lost after the exit of NFWF funding, the
partnership must seek development of solutions that are long-lasting, cost-effective, and can be
maintained at lower levels of funding in the future. Agricultural-based incentives programs must be
engaged to sustain habitat conditions that will allow prairie-chicken populations to thrive. Funding
must be secured to maintain a husbandry and research program should all the major problems outline din this document not be solved. The staged nature of this business plan helps ensure that success in one phase is built upon the progress achieved in an earlier phase. And those latter phases
need to focused on long-term sustainability of the critical natural resources. Therefore, part of the
evaluations of this initiative will address that staying power and the likelihood that successful strategies will remain successful at lower management intensity and financial investment.
The adaptive nature of this initiative will also allow NFWF and partners to regularly evaluate the strategies behind our objectives, make necessary course corrections or addition within the 10 year frame
of this business plan. In some cases these corrections and additions may warrant increased investment by NFWF and other partners. However, it is also possible that NFWF would reduce or eliminate
support for this initiative if periodic evaluation indicates that further investments are unlikely to be
productive in the context of the intended outcomes.
14 | November 4, 2008
Appendix 1 — Tier 4 Projects
Tier 1 – 3 strategies are presented within this document, with Tiers 1 and 2 forming the foundation
for a 10-year business plan. Tier 3 is presented earlier as a potential additional set of projects should
the 10-year plan be accelerated by better-than-anticipated results or other circumstances. Here, we
outline a fourth Tier of projects — those of lesser immediate importance, but that are likely to play a
key role in the long-term success of Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken conservation because they deal directly
with expanding the habitat base.
Table A1.Tier 4 projects are focused on habitat acquisition and specialized restoration and habitat
management. These projects are not of highest importance, but are likely to play a key
role in conservation of prairie-chickens between Years 11 – 15.
Action
Threat/Problem
Addressed
Estimated Outcome
Additional
Birds*
10-Year Cost
($ million)
Habitat
Restoration
Lack of quality habitat
Restore 500 acres of
agricultural fields per
year (Years 11-15)
50
1.00
Land acquisition
Lack of quality habitat
Acquire 267 acres/year
(fee title or easement)
(Years 11-15)
30
10.00
Predator
management
Lack of quality habitat
Reduction of predation
rates in areas of
unusually high predation
50
0.10
130
11.10
TOTAL
* Represents the number of additional prairie-chickens that are added to the wild populations based upon the specific actions
that are taken.
November 4, 2008 | 15
Appendix 2 — Ancillary Benefits
Measureable benefits are likely to accrue to other high priority bird1 species through strategies and
actions directed at Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens, as described above. The benefits are likely to be
greatest for those species whose breeding populations are concentrated along the Atlantic coast and
(a) use beaches, shell bars, and intertidal wetlands for nesting and foraging, or (b) whose nests are
especially vulnerable to mammalian predation. Ideally, benefits accrued to these species (Table A2)
should be measured (along with benefits directed towards prairie-chickens), but that will require individual assessment and monitoring plans and logic models.
Husbandry
Research & Captive
Propagation
Lesser Prairie-Chicken
High

Gunnison Sage-Grouse
Mod

Greater Sage-Grouse
Mod

Mountain Quail
Mod

Montezuma Quail
Mod

Species
Habitat Management
Overall Benefits
Table A2.Other high priority bird species likely to benefit from actions directed towards Attwater’s
Prairie-Chickens. All benefits to these species comes through the anticipated increase in
knowledge of how best to captively raise and release gallinaceous birds (quail, grouse,
prairie-chickens). Species, such as Lesser Prairie-Chicken, are being considered for captive propagation programs because their populations are dwindling. Other species, including the quail, have been (mostly) unsuccessfully introduced after population collapses.
1. Species that have been recognized as high conservation priority by leading bird conservation consortia (i.e., Partners in
Flight, North American Waterfowl Management Plan, United States Shorebird Conservation Plan, and Waterbird Conservation
for the Americas) and which, in general, score at least a “13” (out of 20) using the Partners in Flight species conservation
assessment process (Panjabi et al. 2005;The Partners in Flight handbook on species assessment. Partners in Flight Technical
Series No. 3. Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory, Fort Collins, Colorado).
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8/12/09 10:56:52 AM
Appendix 3 — About this Document
This business plan was drafted between winter 2007 and autumn 2008, combining the extensive
technical expertise and land management experience of the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken Recovery Team
(Recovery Team) and the conservation vision of the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF).
The document builds upon the recovery plan revised in 2007 by the Recovery Team and represents
an attempt to comprehensively map out an aggressive implementation plan for the recovery of
the prairie-chicken. The business plan represents an initial accomplishment in a timely partnership
between the Recovery Team, which had the technical expertise to lead such an effort, and the NFWF,
which was seeking ambitious and rigorously developed conservation programs in which to invest.
Several meetings and conference calls were held with the Recovery Team and partners to develop an
initial logic model and outline the principal strategies that are represented in this business plan.
The Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken Recovery Team. The Recovery Team was assembled by the U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service in an attempt to bring together the world’s authorities on conservation and
management of Attwater’s Prairie-Chickens and organizations and individuals with a vested interest in the recovery of this species. Team Members were drawn from: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, The Nature Conservancy, McCan Ranch, U.S. Natural Resources
Conservation Service, Sutton Avian Research Center, Texas A&M University, Society of Tympanuchus
Cupido Pinnatus, and Fossil Rim Wildlife Center. In addition Houston Zoo and J.F. Welder Heirs, LTD.
provide instrumental guidance.
National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. The National Fish and Wildlife Foundation is a 501(c)
(3) organization dedicated to funding sustainable conservation initiatives. Chartered by the United
States Congress in 1984, NFWF leverages federal grants and private support to achieve maximum
conservation impact. Recently, the NFWF — through its Keystone Initiatives — strategically repositioned itself to more effectively capture conservation gains by directing a substantial portion of its
investments towards programs that had the greatest chance of successfully securing the long-term
future of imperiled species. By leveraging innovative program design from scientific experts, such as
the Attwater’s Prairie-Chicken Recovery Team, NFWF is able to structure smart conservation programs
that consistently achieve measurable and meaningful outcomes. [www.nfwf.org]
November 4, 2008 | 17