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bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. SequenceEntropyandtheAbsoluteRateofAminoAcidSubstitutions RichardA.Goldstein1andDavidD.Pollock2 1 DivisionofInfection&Immunity,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,WC1E6BT,UK. DepartmentofBiochemistryandMolecularGenetics,UniversityofColoradoSchoolofMedicine,Aurora,CO 80045USA. 2 Theevolutionofmodelproteinsunderselectionforthermodynamicstabilitysuggestsparallels between evolutionary behavior and chemical reaction kinetics. We developed a statistical mechanicstheoryofproteinevolutionbydividingaminoacidinteractionsintosite-specificand ‘bath’ components, and show that substitutions between two amino acids occur when their site-specific contributions to stability are nearly identical. Fluctuating epistatic interactions drive stabilities into and out of these regions of near neutrality, with the time spent in the neutral region and thus the rate of substitution governed by physicochemical similarities between the amino acids. We derive a theoretical framework for how site-specific stabilities are determined, and demonstrate that substitution rates and the magnitude of the evolutionaryStokesshiftcanbepredictedfrombiophysicsandtheeffectofsequenceentropy alone.Populationgeneticsunderlaysouranalysis,butpopulationsizedoesnotdeterminethe absoluterateofaminoacidsubstitutions. Introduction Modelingtherateatwhichproteinsequenceschangeiscentraltounderstandinghowproteins adapt to their structural, functional, and thermodynamic requirements. It is also key to decipheringthepatternsofconservationandvariationthatreflectevolutionaryprocessesand the properties of specific proteins. An important step was Kimura’s calculation of the probabilityoffixationofasinglemutationgivenconstantrelativefitnessesofthewildtypeand mutant (1-3). Fixation probabilities alone, however, do not address how or why fitness differencescometobe,andthereforecannotexplainobservedsubstitutionrates.Empirically derived substitution rates have long been obtained by analyzing differences between related protein sequences (4-6), providing estimates of average rates but not explaining them. Althoughthisapproachhasbeenextremelyuseful,itssuccesseswereachievedbyignoringthe underlyingbiophysics,molecularbiology,andpopulationdynamics,aswellashowtheserates varyamongstsitesandtime. Inrecentyears,thenumberofproteinsequences,computationalspeeds,andourknowledge ofproteinbiophysicshaveincreasedsubstantially.Thishasledtoanexpansioninthepotential scope of evolutionary analyzes and a growing awareness of the limitations of standard empirical models. Proteins are under selection for traits – function, foldability, stability, solubility – that depend on a complex network of interacting amino acids. These forms of selectioninduceepistaticinteractions(orcoevolution)amongsitesintheprotein,resultingin substantial effects on the evolutionary process (7-12). Models that ignore this epistasis can seriously compromise evolutionary analyzes by misrepresenting the frequency and time bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. dependence of convergence and homoplasy (13). Empirical models can be modified to allow thesubstitutionprocesstovaryamongsites(14,15)andovertime(6,16-20),butinformation available from sequences to obtain accurate site- and time-dependent substitution rates is fundamentallylimited.Effortstouseproteinstructuretopredictsubstitutionrates(21,22)are compromised by our lack of understanding of the relationship between protein sequence, proteinproperties,andorganismalfitness,andourinabilitytopredicttheeffectofmutations asdifferencesaccumulate. Thedevelopmentofmoreaccurateandpowerfulmodelsofproteinevolutiondependsonour abilitytorepresenttheprocessofmolecularevolutionatamechanisticlevel,ideallyenabling ustocalculatesubstitutionratesbasedontheprotein’ssequenceandbiophysicalproperties. Ourpurposehereistodevelopfromfirstprinciplesatheoryofhowproteinsevolveandhow substitution rates are determined. We approach the problem by building a conceptual framework to translate protein evolution into the formalisms of statistical mechanics, demonstrating the primacy of sequence entropy. Using evolutionary simulations of model proteins, with fitness determined by thermodynamic stability, we demonstrate that substitutionratesdependonhowaminoacidenergycontributionsfluctuateastherestofthe protein sequence evolves. We show that substitution rates can be predicted based on 1) the stability distributions at a site in the absence of selection on that site; and 2) the relative numbersofsequenceswithdifferentproteinstabilities;nootheradjustableparameters,such asexpectedpopulationsize,areneeded.Thisformsamechanisticframeworkforconstructing improvedmodelsofaminoacidsubstitutionrates. Results Site-specificstabilitiesandrelativesubstitutionrates To develop a mechanical theory of the evolutionary process, we consider the relationship between protein stability and substitution rates at a site. The stability Ξ(𝐗) of a protein sequence 𝐗 = {𝑥! , 𝑥! , 𝑥! … 𝑥! } was defined as the negative of the free energy difference between the sequence in the native structure and in the ensemble of possible alternative structures,sothatmorepositivevaluesindicategreaterstability.TheMalthusianfitness𝑚(𝐗) wassetequaltothefractionofsuchsequencesthatwouldbefoldedinapre-specifiednative conformation at thermodynamic equilibrium (Equation (2, Methods) (11, 23, 24). Thus, increasesinstabilityleadtoincreasesinfitness. Tounderstandhowtherestoftheproteininfluencesthesubstitutionrateatindividualsites, wefocusourattentiononanaminoacidαataspecificfocalsitek,andpartitionthestability into Ξ(𝐗) = ξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! ) + ξ!,!"#$ (𝐗 ∌ ! ). The first term, ξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! ), is the site-specific stability contribution due to interactions (in both the folded and unfolded states) between α at site k and the amino acids at all other sites excluding k. The second term, ξ!,!"#$ (𝐗 ∌ ! ), is the ‘background’contributionresultingfrominteractionsamongaminoacidsatsitesexcludingthe focal site. Because only a small fraction of contacts involve site k, we assume that the site- bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. specific stability contribution is small relative to the background contribution, so that this secondtermfulfillstheroleofthe‘thermalbath’instatisticalphysics. This statistical mechanics formalism can now be applied to modeling the amino acid substitutionrate.Consider𝑄!,!→! 𝐗 ∌ ! ,theinstantaneousrateofanαtoβsubstitutionatsite k,equaltothemutationratetimesthefixationprobability.Thefixationprobabilitydependson the difference in fitnesses ∆𝑚!,!→! , which is a function of the initial stability Ξ(𝐗) and the stabilityofthemutantΞ 𝐗′ = Ξ 𝐗 + ΔΞ!,!→! (𝐗 ∌ ! ).Wecansimplifythesituationbynoting that sequences from real proteins, as well as proteins from evolutionary simulations under selection for thermostability, tend to have a narrow range of stability values(23, 25-28). This stability range occurs where the decreasing effectiveness of selection for greater stability is balanced by destabilizing mutations fixed by genetic drift. The precise value depends on a varietyoffactorssuchastemperature,effectivepopulationsize,sequencelengthandprotein function. As long as these factors are approximately constant, we can assume that a given protein will evolve to the mean of this narrow range Ξ(𝐗) = Ξ. If Ξ is a known constant, calculating the fixation probability requires only the difference in site-specific stabilities ΔΞ!,!→! (𝐗 ∌ ! ) = ξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! ) − ξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! ); the bath component, ξ!,!"#$ (𝐗 ∌ ! ) is independent of theaminoacidatfocalsitek,andisthereforeunchangedbythesubstitution. From this perspective, the key distribution determining the substitution rate from α to β is ρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ),thejointprobabilitydensityofξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! )andξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! )giventhataminoacidα is resident at site k, integrating over the distributions of amino acids at other locations. The distributiondependsonwhichaminoacidoccupiespositionkbecausethataminoacidwillhave affected the evolution in the rest of the protein; in this case, ξ!,! is the local stability contributionthatwouldresultifβweretoreplaceαatthatsitewithnootherchangesinthe sequence. For simplicity, we will consider that the rest of the protein sequence has evolved sufficientlythatρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! hasreachedastationarydistribution;theeffectofabreakdown inthisassumptionwillbeconsideredbelow. To help visualize these distributions, and evaluate our theoretical results, we modeled the evolution of real proteins using the simulated evolution of a 300-residue protein under selectionforthermodynamicstability.Thismodelisnotmeanttomakequantitativepredictions in particular cases. Instead, it is meant to predict general characteristics of evolutionary behaviorforproteinsthatrequirethenativeconfirmationtocarryoutsomecriticalbiological function, and has demonstrated its ability to reproduce fundamental aspects of the evolutionary process (11, 23, 24). By using a simple pair-contact model of protein thermodynamics, we were able to perform replicate simulations over long periods of evolutionary time, corresponding to approximately 5 billion years given typical substitution rates. Wegroupedsiteswithsimilarsubstitutionpatternsintofourdifferentsiteclasses,whereclass 1 is the most exposed and 4 is the most buried. Figures 1A-D shows the observed joint probabilitydistributionsofthesesiteclassesforglutamicacidandlysine,aswellasthestability L L s pos ed on ne May 31 2016 do h p dx do o g 10 1101 056325 The copy gh ho de o h s p ep n wh ch was no pee ev ewed s he au ho unde s made ava ab e unde a CC BY NC ND 4 0 n e na ona cense L L b oRx v p ep n ●● ● ● ● 5 ● ● ● ξ(Glu) LT0 L ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●●●● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●●● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 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● −5 C ass 3 ● ● ● ● ● 0 LG u L ● ● GGu u C aa 21 DC Ca a 3 3 C ● ● ● ● C ass 2 Class CCa aa 22 12 CC LT LLeu 10 ● LG u ξL(Glu) 5 C ass 1 CClass BCaaa 1211 C −5 10 GGu u Ca 1 AC Caa 00 −10 10 Se A Gu g u G ● C ass 3 ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●●●● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ●●●● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● 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ass 3 ● ● Ag Class HClass C 41 Caa 2 3 5 ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●●●● ● ●●● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●●●●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●●●●● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ●●●●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●●● ●●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ●●●● ●● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●●●●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●●● ●● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●●●● ●●●●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●●●●● ● 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●● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● 5 −5 −5 10 1010 ● 0 ξA(Ala p ) GGu u LξG ((Glu u ) Glu ξL(ξGlu 0 )) 10 5 (Glu LξG u ) L 0 1 CCa aa 2 32 EClass C C ass 3 −5 −5 −5 −10 A p GGu u 5 5 −10 ● ● ● −5 −5 −5 ● ● −5−5 00 55 ξ(ξSer )) (Arg Se Ag 1010 −10 Class LClass43 C ass 3 ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ●●●● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●●●● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ●● ●●●● ●● ●● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ●●● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ●●● ●●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●●●● ● ●● ●●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●●● ●● ●● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● 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Class43 Class 0 5 0 ξ(Glu) ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●●●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 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−10 −10 −10 −10 −10 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 ξ(Asp) A GGupu 0 −5 ξ(Glu) ξ(Tyr 0 ) −10 −5 −5 −10 −10 −10 −10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −10 −5 0 5 10 −10 −10 −5−5 00 (Ala) ) ξ(ξAsp 55 1010 −10 −10 −5−5 00 ξ(ξAla )) (Ser 55 1010 −10 −10 −10 −10 −10 −10 −10 −10 ● −10 −10 −5−5 00 55 1010 ξ(ξSer (Arg) ) F gure 1 A-H) Re a ve oca con bu ons o s ab y o pa o am no ac ds n d e en s e g oups (A-D) o d e en pa s o am no ac ds n he same s e g oup (E-H) Po n s a e samp ed e he when he am no ac d n he absc ssa s es den (b when he am no ac d contributions n he o d na e stoesstability den (g een) du of ng amino ans ons be ween he wo site Figure 1:ue) A-H) Relative local for opair acids in different (ye ow) -L: D s bu ons o oca con bu ons o s ab y when non- n e ac ng am no ac d s p esen (magen a) classes (A-D) or different pairs of amino acids in the same site class (E-H). Points were sampled and when am no ac d n he absc ssa s p esen (cyan: p ed c ed; b ue: obse ved) ξ(Asp) −10 either when the amino acid in the abscissa is resident (blue), when the amino acid in the ordinate is resident (green), or during transitions between the two (yellow). I-L: Distributions of local contributions to stability in reference state when the non-interacting null amino acid was present (ρ!,∅ !ξ!,! , ξ!,! !, magenta), when the amino acid in the abscissa was present as predicted using Equation (1 (ρ! !,! !ξ!,! , ξ!,! !, cyan), or as observed (𝜌!,! !ξ!,! , ξ!,! !, blue). distributionswhensubstitutionsbetweenthesetwoaminoacidsoccurred.Figures1E-Hshows thesedistributionsforfourdifferentpairsofaminoacidsinsiteclass3.Therearewideranges of values for ξ!,! and ξ!,! , consistent with earlier results demonstrating fluctuating selective pressures at sites due to substitutions elsewhere in the protein (11). The distributions of ξ!,! andξ!,! stronglydependontheresidentaminoacid.Inparticular,thepotentialcontributionof anaminoacidtotheproteinstabilitytendstobegreaterwhenthataminoacidisresidentata site, a phenomenon we previously named the ‘evolutionary Stokes shift’ (11). The amount of thisincreaseappearstobecorrelatedwiththeobservedvarianceinξ!,! . Rapidly evolving sites with few selective constraints tend to have compact distributions with smaller variances in ξ!,! and ξ!,! than slowly evolving sites (Figures 1A-D). Distributions for physicochemicallysimilaraminoacids(e.g.,asparticacidversusglutamicacid,Figure1E)appear highly correlated, while those for dissimilar amino acids (e.g., arginine versus leucine, Figure 1H)seemanti-correlated.Thisisbecausebackgroundsequencesthatconferahighsite-specific stability on aspartic acid tend to do the same for the highly similar glutamic acid, while background sequences that stabilize arginine tend to destabilize the dissimilar leucine (29). A −5 0 ξ(Arg) 5 10 bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. non-resident amino acid is generally stabilized if the distributions are correlated (e.g. glutamic acid when aspartic acid is present, Figure 1E), but destabilized if thedistributionsareanti-correlated(e.g.glutamicacid whenalanineispresent,Figure1F). To determine whether substitution rates can be predicted from ρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ), class-specific stability distributions were modeled with the best fitting bivariate normal distribution for each pair of amino acids ρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ) = Figure 2: Comparison of observed and ! ! 𝒩{ξ!,!|! , ξ!,!|! , σ!,!|! , σ!,!|! , φ!,!"|! }. The expected predicted substitution rates. Blue: predicted substitution rates calculated by integrating substitution rates between each pair were then over ρ (ξ , ξ ), Red: Predicted !,α !,α !,β estimated by numerical integration over these substitution rates calculated using distributionsusingKimura’sformulafortheprobability transition state theory (Equation(7), offixation(30-32)(seeEquation(3,Methods).Thereis which assumes only near-neutral extremely good agreement between expected substitutions occur. substitutionratesderivedfromthisapproximationand substitution rates obtained by counting substitutions that occurred during the simulations (Figure2).Thisvalidatestheutilityofthebivariatenormalapproximationandtheassumption thatvariationinΞ(𝐗)haslittleeffectonsubstitutionrates. A striking feature of Figure 1 is the strong tendency for substitutions to occur in the overlap region between ρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ) and ρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ), centred on the diagonal ΔΞ!,!→! = ξ!,! − ξ!,! = 0 where substitutions are neutral. This suggests the possible applicability of transition state theory (TST), a method for predicting the rate of chemical reactions (33). In TST, the reactionrateisgivenbythefractionofreactantsina‘transitionstate’inwhichtheenergiesof reactant and product are approximately equal, times the rate of conversion from transition statetoproducts.Adaptingthistheory,wemodelthesubstitutionrateasequaltothefraction ofjointstabilitiesforwhichthefitnessofwildtypeandmutantareapproximatelyequal,times therateofsubstitutionunderneutralconditions. Theprobabilitythatthebackgroundsequenceresultsinnearlyequalfitnessesbetweenαandβ at site k was estimated as the density ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! integrated along the neutral line ξ!,! = ξ!,! ,multipliedbythewidthoftheneutralzoneonbothsidesoftheneutralline,2ε,theregion inwhichtheeffectofselectionissmall.Theneutralsubstitutionrateisequaltothemutation rate υ!→! , allowing us to write a closed-form expression for the average substitution rate (Equation(7,Methods). AsdescribedintheMethodssection,theextentoftheneutralzone,ε,canbenaturallydefined bythefalloffinthenumberofsequenceswithgreaterstabilities.BecausethestabilityvaluesΞ forfoldedproteinsrepresentthefartailofadistributiondominatedbyunstablesequences,we bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. modeledΩ Ξ , thenumberofsequenceswithstabilityΞ,asanexponentialΩ Ξ ∝ exp(−γΞ), whereγcharacterizesthedecreaseinnumberofsequencewithincreasingstability;thus,the ! biasofthedrifteffectdoesnotdependonΞ.Thescaleoftheneutralzoneisgivenby!,which ! is equal to the range of stabilities at which the fitness changes by less than !! regardless of ! populationsize(seeMethods).Tocalculatesubstitutionrates,weestimatedγ=1.26(kcalmol1)-1basedontherelativenumbersofdestabilizingandstabilizingmutations,yieldingε=0.79 kcal mol-1. Notably, because this calculation considers only neutral substitutions, it produces strikinglyaccuratepredictions(Figure2)withouttheneedforKimura’sformula. The equilibrium distributions of site-specific stabilities: The mechanism behind the evolutionary‘StokesShift’ It appears that the rate of amino acid substitutions is substantially determined by ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! intheregionswhereξ!,! ≈ ξ!,! .Ourgoalfortherestofthepaperistoshow the degree to which these distributions, and therefore substitution rates, can be explained usingtheprinciplesofstatisticalmechanics. Asabove,weassumethatproteinsevolvetoaspecificstabilityvalueΞ(𝐗) = Ξ.Allsequences withstabilityΞhave,inourmodel,identicalfitnesses,sononearepreferredoveranotherby selection. If evolution has had sufficient time to sample from the stationary distribution, the fractionofsequenceswithanypropertyθisproportionaltoΩ(θ, Ξ),thenumberofsequences with property θ and stability Ξ = Ξ. The log of this quantity, 𝑆(θ, Ξ) = ln[Ω(θ, Ξ)], is the ‘sequence entropy’ of such sequences, analogous to thermodynamic entropy. Under these conditions,theprobabilityofpropertyθ is givenbyρ!" (θ) = !(!,!) !(!) = e! !,! !! ! ,whereΩ(Ξ) andS(Ξ)arethenumberofsequenceswithstabilityΞ = Ξandthelogofthisquantity. Tocalculateρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ),anestimateofρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ),wefirstconsideredΩ!,! (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! , Ξ), the number of sequences with stability Ξ = Ξ, α resident at site k, and site-specific stability contributions ξ!,! and ξ!,! at that location. We approximated this number as the product of Ω!"# ! (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ), the number of amino acid arrangements resulting in the site-specific ξ!,! and ξ!,! , times Ω!"#$ (ξ!,!"#$ = Ξ − ξ!, ! ). The latter term is the number of sequences ! furnishing the background stability required to complement the site-specific contribution furnishedbyξ!, ! ,foratotalstabilityequaltoΞ.Thiscalculationassumesindependenceofthe bathandlocalcontributionstototalstability;althoughnotstrictlyaccurate(therelevantsites in the protein overlap), it is likely to be approximately true because the interactions involved aredifferent. We note that Ω!"# ! (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ) does not depend on selection, so to characterize it requires removing selection at site k. To do this we performed simulations with the focal site permanently occupied by a non-interacting amino acid, ∅, and with all other sites evolving freely. The resulting distributions ρ!,∅ (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ) are proportional to Ω!"# ! (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ), and bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. representthenulldistributionsoflocalstabilitycontributionsthatwouldoccurifinteractions between amino acids at site k and the rest of the protein did not affect the evolutionary dynamics.Becausethenumberofpossiblesequencesisimmense,andbecauseξ!,! andξ!,! are theresultofmanyinteractions,thecentrallimittheoremsuggeststhatρ!,∅ (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ) canbe approximated by a bivariate normal distribution ρ!,∅ (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ) ∝ 𝒩{ξ!,!|∅ , ξ!,!|∅ , σ!!,!|∅ , σ!!,!|∅ , φ!,!"|∅ } . Interactions involving the focal amino acid represent a small fraction of total interactions, allowing us to approximate Ω!"#$ (ξ!,!"#$ ) ∝ Ω Ξ = ξ ,!"#$ .Thenormalizedproductofρ!,∅ (ξ!, ! , ξ!,! ) andtheexponential ! Ω(Ξ = ξ!,!"#$ = Ξ − ξ!, ! ) results in a shifted bivariate normal distribution ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! = 𝒩 ξ!,!|! , ξ!,!|! , σ!!,!|! , σ!!,!|! , φ!,!"|! with ξ!,!|! = ξ!,!|∅ + γσ!!,!|∅ σ!!,!|! = σ!!,!|∅ ξ!,!|! = ξ!,!|∅ + γ φ!,!"|∅ σ!,!|∅ σ!,!|∅ (1) σ!!,!|! = σ!!,!|∅ φ!,!"|! = φ!,!"|∅ Selection in the presence of amino acid α at site k shifts the average local contribution to stabilitybyanamountζ!,!|! = γσ!!,!|∅ comparedtoitscontributiontostabilityintheabsence of interactions; this stabilization can be viewed as the basis for the evolutionary Stokes shift. Themechanismfortheshiftisthelargeincreaseinsequenceentropygainedfromadecreasein ξ!,!"#$ ,combinedwiththetrade-offbetweenξ!,! andξ!,!"#$ = Ξ − ξ!, ! . Thefitbetweenestimatedequilibriumvaluesofξ!,!|! foreachaminoacidandvaluesofξ!,!|! calculated directly from the simulations is surprisingly good given the approximations made ! (Figure 3A). The entropic stabilization as a function of 𝜎!,!|∅ is linear (correlation coefficient 0.857; Figure 3B) as predicted by Equation (1. The slope of 1.00 (kcal mol-1)-1 (95% CI: 0.87 – 1.14)isclosetotheexpectedvalueofγ=1.26(kcalmol-1)-1,confirmingthetrendsevidentin Figure1.Theobservedentropicstabilizationissmallerthanpredictedforthetwolargestshifts in the slowest rate class, involving the negatively charged aspartic acid and glutamic acid. Earlier work demonstrated that equilibration for the most buried states can be extremely slow(11),andtheseoutliersmayrepresentcaseswheretheproteinhashadinsufficienttimeto adjusttothepresenceofthenewaminoacid. The key result here is that the magnitude of the entropic stabilization that drives the evolutionaryStokesshiftdependsonlyonthenumberofproteinsequenceswithgivenprotein stabilities and on the underlying distributions of interactions in the absence of selection: the effectcanbeunderstoodpurelyintermsofbiophysicsandsequenceentropy. bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. Figure 3: Accuracy of site-specific stability and evolutionary Stokes shift predictions. A) Estimated values of ξ!!,!|! versus observed values ξ̅ !,!|! for all four site rate classes (from most exposed to most buried: Class 1, blue; Class 2, red; Class 3, black; and Class 4, purple). B) The linear relationship between the observed evolutionary Stokes shift and the variance in amino acid-specific stability contributions in the absence of selection on the site. The lines shown are theoretical predictions with gamma = 1.26. Thepredictedandobserveddistributionsofρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! areshowninFigures1I-L.Thevalues ofξ!,! areshiftedbyanamountζ!,!|! = γ φ!,!"|∅ σ!,!|∅ σ!,!|∅ toeitherhigherorlowervalues dependingonthephysicochemicalsimilaritiesbetweentheaminoacids.FromEquation(1we canseethattherealizedevolutionary‘Stokesshift’afterasubstitution,theexpectedaverage difference in stability before and after the protein adjusts to the new resident amino acid, is equal to ζ!,!|! − ζ!,!|! = γ(σ!!,!|∅ −φ!,!"|∅ σ!,!|∅ σ!,!|∅ ). The full entropic stabilization is reduced by ζ!,!|! , which can be viewed as the averageamountofpreadaptation(orlackthereof) toaminoacidβcausedbytheresidencyofamino acidα.Aswwiththeaverageentropicstabilization, the realized evolutionary Stokes shifts depend deterministically on the site-specific stability distributions in the absence of selection with no adjustable parameters. Substitution rates estimatedwiththeTSTapproximation(Equation(7) using the site-specific stabilities calculated from Equation(1areremarkablyaccurateforallfoursite classes and over four orders of magnitude of rate variation(Figure4). Discussion The understanding of evolutionary mechanics developed here represents a fundamental shift in Figure 4: Predicted and observed values of substitution rates based on transition state theory. Rates were computed using estimated values compared with observed values for all four classes (Class 1, blue; Class 2, red; Class 3, black; Class 4, purple). bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. how we conceptualize the process of amino acid substitution. Although stability is approximately constant, the way this stability is partitioned among various interactions fluctuates as a protein evolves. In particular, the contribution that a resident amino acid at a sitemakestothestabilityoftheprotein,aswellasthecontributionanon-residentaminoacid would make if substituted in, will fluctuate. Occasionally, these fluctuations lead to approximatelyequalstabilitiesforapairofaminoacidssothatsubstitutionsfromonetothe other are nearly neutral. The frequencies of these nearly neutral states then determine the relativesubstitutionrates.Thefluctuationsinstabilizingcontributionsofdifferentaminoacids at a site are not superfluous or unwanted complications in the construction of substitution models,butratherarecentraltothesubstitutionprocess.Inevolutionarytheoryitiscommon toevoketheideaofafixed‘adaptivelandscape’,butforasingleaminoacidpositionamore appropriate analogy may be a fluctuating adaptive seascape; the site explores the space of possibleaminoacidsbymovingalongfluctuatinglocalcontoursinthecontextofapproximately constantoverallfitness. By developing a statistical mechanics view of protein evolution, the evolutionary Stokes shift can be seen as a direct consequence of sequence entropy. Increases in the stabilizing contributions of an amino acid occupying a given site reduce the amount of stabilization requiredbytherestofthesequence,increasingthenumberofsequencesthatcancontribute this reduced stability. Our theoretical analysis of the balance between the number of states availabletothesystem(theaminoacidatthefocalsiteanditsinteractions)andthe‘bath’(the restofthesequence)yieldsanexpectationthattherelativemagnitudeofentropicstabilization of an amino acid at a site is proportional to the variance of the underlying null site-specific stabilitydistribution.Furthermore,thestabilizationofallaminoacidsatallsitesarescaledbya protein-wide proportionality constant determined by the decline in the number of available sequences as protein stability increases. Thus, surprisingly, the strength of selection and the effectivepopulationsizedonotaffecttheevolutionaryStokesshiftorsubstitutionratesifthe protein is in a steady state(34, 35). Thus, although our evolutionary mechanics theory fully incorporates population genetics theory and Kimura’s equation for the probability of a substitution,ifthesystemisnearequilibriumwedonotneedKimura’sformulatopredictand explainsubstitutionratesamongaminoacids. Correlations in the fluctuations between amino acids with similar physicochemical properties increasetheprobabilityofnear-neutrality,providingamechanisticexplanationforhigherrates of conservative change, a general phenomenon rationalized by Fisher with his geometric argument(36).Theprobabilityofoccupyingtheneutralzoneisloweratinteriorsites,wherethe multiplicityofinteractionswiththefocalsiteincreasethedistancebetweenξ!,! andξ!,! ,and correspondinglyhigheratsurfacesites;thisisconsistentwithobservedslowerinternal(buried) thanexternal(surface)substitutionrates. For dissimilar amino acids, the probability of achieving the near-neutrality required for a substitution can be unlikely. However, if such a substitution occurs the protein will subsequently evolve to sequences that partition a larger stability contribution to the newly residentaminoacid,causinganincreasedaffinityforthisresidue.Thisincreasedaffinityiswhat bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. we have called the evolutionary Stokes shift. This evolutionary mechanism can be fully reversible,asisinourevolutionarysimulations,withthereversibilitycomingfromthesimilarity intheprocessesofmovingintoandawayfromtheneutralzone(11).Theseprocesses,called ‘contingency’and‘entrenchment’byPlotkinandcolleagues(12),aremirrorsofeachother,so that if the substitution were reversed the dissipation process, played backwards, would have the same statistical properties as the pre-adaptation process played forwards. Where previously we might have assumed that the amino acid found at the site had adapted to the requirementsofthesite,thesitemayhaveinsteadadaptedtotheresidentaminoacid. The fluctuations and the relaxation of the protein are explicitly time-dependent. Here we addressedonlythetheoreticalequilibriumpredictionsandtheresultofsimulationsthatwere designedtobenearequilibrium.Thisneglectofthistimedependencemayexplainsomeofthe errors in the predicted Stokes shift for charged residues in buried sites. Individual sites at specific time points might be further constrained by conserved neighboring sites in the structureaswellastheconservedstructuralcontextoftheirinteractionswiththosesites.Such effectsmayinfluencethetime-dependentprobabilityofbackmutationsaswellassubsequent substitutions,animportanttopicforfurtherinvestigation. Thesimulationspresentedherealsoconsideronlythefitnesseffectsofstability,butfitnessis alsousuallydeterminedbyothereffectssuchasinteractionswithsubstrates,ligandsorother proteins.Suchalternativefitnesscomponentswilladdadditionalconstraintstothesystem,and may force non-neutral substitutions if outside selective pressures change. Previous analyzes indicated that when a substitution is compelled by an outside force, an evolutionary Stokes shiftoccursinlargelythesamefashion,exceptthattheprocessisnolongerreversible(11).In this context, evolution can be seen as occurring in a ‘memory foam’ made up by the bath of interactionsthatoccuramongallsitesotherthantheselectedfocalsite. In conclusion, the work described here sets up a theory of evolutionary mechanics, and demonstrates that this theory can be used to predict substitution rates from the basic propertiesofhowaminoacidsinteract.Althoughthecurrentworkisfocusedonfitnessdefined bytheproteinstability,weexpectthatotherkindsofselectionwillfitwellintothisframework, either by defining a large nearly neutral landscape in their own right, or by constraining the stability-basednearlyneutralnetwork. Methods Simulationsofproteinevolution Themethodsusedtosimulateproteinevolutionhavebeendescribedpreviously(11,23,24). The free energy 𝐺(𝐗, 𝐫) of a protein sequence 𝐗 = {𝑥! , 𝑥! , 𝑥! … 𝑥! } in conformation 𝐫 was calculatedbysummingthepair-wiseenergiesofaminoacidsincontactinthatconformation, using the contact potentials derived by Miyazawa and Jernigan (37). We computed the free energy of folding Δ𝐺Folding (𝐗) by first determining the free energy of the sequence in a prechosennativestate,theconformationofthe300-residuepurpleacidphosphatase,PDB1QHW bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. (38)).TheenergiesoftheunfoldedstateswereassumedtofollowaGaussiandistributionwith parameters estimated by calculating the free energy of the sequence in an ensemble of 55 different structurally diverse protein structures. The energy of the unfolded state was then calculated by assuming a large set (10160) of possible unfolded structures with free energies drawn from that distribution. The free energy of folding Δ𝐺!"#$%&' (𝐗) was calculated as the differencebetweenthetwo,andstabilitywasΞ 𝐗 = −Δ𝐺!"#$%&' (𝐗).TheMalthusianfitnessof a sequence m 𝐗 was defined as the fraction of that sequence that would be folded to the nativestateatequilibrium Ξ(𝐗) 𝑇 𝑚(𝐗) = Ξ(𝐗) 1 + exp 𝑇 exp (2) whereTisthetemperatureinunitsofenergy,0.6kcalmol-1. Startingfromarandomlychosennucleotidesequenceencodinga300amino-acidprotein,we simulated evolution by considering in each step all possible nucleotide mutations with rates givenbytheK80nucleotidemodel(κ = 2)(39).Thefixationprobabilityofeachmutationwas calculatedbasedontheKimuraformulafordiploidorganisms(30-32), ! 𝑃!"# 1 − e!!(!(!(𝐗 ))!!(!(!))) 𝐗, 𝐗′ = ! 1 − e!!!! (!(!(𝐗 ))!!(!(!))) (3) where𝐗and𝐗 ! arethesequencesbeforeandafterthemutation,withtheeffectivepopulation size𝑁! setto106.Onesubstitutionwaschosentobefixedatrandomwithrelativeprobabilities determinedbytheproductofthemutationratestimestheacceptanceprobabilities. Sequenceevolutionwassimulatedforasufficientnumberofgenerationssuchthatthestability of the protein was roughly constant, representing mutation-drift selection balance. 100 such equilibrated proteins were chosen, and three longer simulations were performed using each these equilibrated proteins as initial starting sequences, for a total of 300 simulations. We simulated the evolution of each lineage for an evolutionary distance of approximately seven aminoacidreplacementsperaminoacidposition. Groupingofsites For ease of analysis, we divided the sites in the protein into four classes with similar substitution rates. Substitution matrices were calculated individually for each site; due to the length of the simulations, we had on average over 2000 substitutions at each site. We then clustered the sites based on the off-diagonal elements of the substitution matrices using Kmeans clustering (40, 41). The resulting clusters were approximately of equal size, and class bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. membershipstronglydependentonhowburiedorexposedthesiteswereinthenativestate (asindicatedbynumberofcontacts).Werankedtheclustersbysurfaceexposure,whereclass 1isthemostexposedand4isthemostburied. Calculatingthesite-specificcontributiontoproteinstability The site-specific contribution ξ!,! 𝐗 ∌ ! of amino acid α at focal site k as a function of the amino acids 𝐗 ∌ ! at all sites excluding k is equal to Ξ{𝑥! , 𝑥! , 𝑥! … 𝑥!!! , α, 𝑥!!! … 𝑥! }, the stability when the focal site is occupied by α, minus Ξ{𝑥! , 𝑥! , 𝑥! … 𝑥!!! , ∅, 𝑥!!! … 𝑥! } , the stabilityofareferencestatewhenbyαisreplacedbyanon-interactingaminoacid∅,whilethe rest of the sequence and thus all other interactions, are unchanged. The part of the stability unaffected by this replacement is represented by the ‘bath’ interactions ξ!,Bath (𝐗 ∌ ! ) so that Ξ(𝐗) = ξ!,! (𝐗 ∌ ! ) + ξ!,Bath (𝐗 ∌ ! ). Calculatingthesubstitutionrateintegratingoverdistributionsoflocalcontributions Theaveragerateforthesubstitutionα → βatsitek,𝑄!,!→! ,isequaltotheneutralsubstitution rate υ!→! times the average probability of fixation, which is a function of the stability of the proteinbeforeandafterthesubstitution.ThestandarddeviationofobservedvaluesofΞ,0.71 kcalmol-1,wassmallcomparedwiththerangeofvaluesofξ!,! (asshowninFigure1),allowing ustorepresentthedistributionΞbyitsaverage,Ξ ≃ Ξ=9.27kcalmol-1.Weassumedthatthe stabilitybeforethesubstitutionwasequaltoΞandafterthesubstitutionwasΞ + (ξ!,! − ξ!,! ). Theaveragesubstitutionratewasthenestimatedas 𝑄!,!→! = υ!→! ∬ !!! !!! !! ! !! !!,! !!!,! !!!! ! !! !!,! !!!,! !! ! !! ! ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! dξ!,! dξ!,! , (4) whereρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! isthejointdistributionofξ!,! andξ!,! observedwhenαoccupiessitek. Based on the observations in Figure 1, we modeled ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! as a bivariate normal distribution of the form ρ!,! (ξ!,! , ξ!,! ) = 𝒩(ξ!,!|! , ξ!,!|! , σ!!,!|! , σ!!,!|! , φ!,!"|! ), where the parametersarerepresentedasexplicitlydependingontheaminoacidoccupyingsitek.These parameters were calculated directly from the evolutionary simulation, and Equation (4 was integrated numerically. The neutral substitution rate was calculated using the same K80 nucleotide model (κ = 2)(39) as used in the simulation, with all non-nonsense codons consideredequallylikely. Calculatingthesubstitutionrateintegratingassumingonlyneutralsubstitutions As observed in Figure 1, substitutions generally occur in a neutral region in which ΔΞ!,!→! = ξ!,! − ξ!,! ≈ 0,sothat bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 1 − e!!(!(!!(!!,! !!!,! ))!!(!)) 1 − e!!!! (!(!!(!!,! !!!,! ))!!(!)) ≈ 1. (5) Thisconditionissatisfiedinabandofwidth2εcentredonξ!,! = ξ!,! ,whereεrepresentsthe deviation from strict neutrality that is still sufficiently close for Equation (5 to be sufficiently accurate. We can obtain a natural scale for ε by considering the concept of ‘free fitness’ Φ Ξ of the ! ! protein equal to Φ Ξ = 𝑚 Ξ + !! (42, 43). Free fitness, analogous to its thermodynamic ! equivalent ‘free energy’ where 𝑇 is replaced by 4𝑁! , encompasses the contributions of both fitnessandsequenceentropyindeterminingthedistributionofstates;evolutionarydynamics movestowardsmaximisingthisquantity.Assuming𝑆 Ξ = ln Ω! 𝑒 !γ! whereΩ! isaconstant, andnotingthatthesystemisatequilibriumwith !" Ξ !! 𝜕 4𝑁! 𝑚 Ξ 𝜕Ξ = 0whenΞ=Ξ,wecanseethat = γ (6) !!Ξ Thus,γdefinestherateofchangeofthepopulation-weightedfitness4𝑁! 𝑚 Ξ withstability. ! Alternatively,achangeinstabilityof γ correspondstoaunitchangeinthepopulation-weighted ! fitness.Inourcalculations,weequatedε = γ ;theestimationofγisdescribedbelow.Notethat this calculation demonstrates that ε is, surprisingly, independent of effective population size 𝑁! . This is a result of the balance between selection and mutational drift at equilibrium; for !" ! fixedeffectofmutationaldrift,thedegreeofselection( populationsizesothattheirproductisconstant(34,35). !! )adjuststochangesineffective Ifweassumethatρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! isbroaderthanε,andthatEquation(5issatisfied,Equation(4 becomes !"! 𝑄!,!→! = 2ε υ!→! ∬ ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! δ ξ!,! − ξ!,! dξ!,! dξ!,! (ξ!,!|! − ξ!,!|! )! exp − 2(σ!!,!|! + σ!!,!|! − 2φ!,!"|! σ!,!|! σ!,!|! ) = υ!→! ε ! ! 2π σ!,!|! + σ!,!|! − 2φ!,!"|! σ!,!|! σ!,!|! where δ ξ!,! − ξ!,! istheDiracdeltafunction. (7) bioRxiv preprint first posted online May. 31, 2016; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/056325. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. For highly similar amino acids the entire distribution of ρ!,! ξ!,! , ξ!,! may be contained in a regionsignificantlynarrowerthantheneutralzone,resultinginanoverestimationof𝑄!,!→! > υ!→! .Forthisreason,theestimatedratewascappedattheneutralrateυ!→! . Characterisingthebathstatedistribution Asdescribedabove,weassumethatthenumberofproteinsequenceswithagivenvalueofΞin the range of interest around Ξ = Ξ is approximately exponential Ω(Ξ)~ 𝑒 !!" . To estimate γ, weconsiderthedistributionofchangesinstabilityresultingfromrandommutations,ρ!"# ΔΞ . Theaveragechangeinstability ρ!"# ΔΞ isnegativeduetothegreaternumberofsequences codingforproteinswithlowerstability.ThissuggeststhatifwecorrectforthedependenceofΩ on Ξ by multiplying ρ!"# ΔΞ by 𝑒 !"# , this bias would disappear. We adjusted γ so that ΔΞ𝑒 !"# = 0 where the average was over all possible mutations during the simulations, yieldingγ = 1.26(kcalmol-1)-1. LiteratureCited 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 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