Download Waiting Wednesday! Neither here, nor there Life was always a

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Securitization wikipedia , lookup

Business valuation wikipedia , lookup

Investment fund wikipedia , lookup

Financial economics wikipedia , lookup

Short (finance) wikipedia , lookup

Public finance wikipedia , lookup

Land banking wikipedia , lookup

Stock valuation wikipedia , lookup

Investment management wikipedia , lookup

Financialization wikipedia , lookup

Investment banking wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
July 12, 2017
Indian Markets
CMP
Nifty
9,786
Sensex
31,747
BSE Small Cap
15,806
Midcap
14,923
INR/USD
64.59
Developed/Emerging markets
Dow Jones
21,409
S&P 500
2,426
Nasdaq
5,710
Nikkei
20,128
Hang Seng
26,040
Bovespa
63,832
DAX
12,437
FTSE
7,330
SGX Nifty
9,803
Top gainers
Underlying Security
Videocon Ind.
Alembic Ph.
IGL
JSPL
Hexaware
Recent eco. data
India CPI
Canada Employ Change
Canada Unemploy Rate
UK Halifax HPI
US Unemploy Rate
FIIs & DIIs cash activity
(Rs cr)
FII Equity
DII Equity
FII Debt
DII Debt
CMP
30
538
1,118
139
252
Actual
2.2
45.3K
6.5
(0.1)
4.4
% chg 1d
0.2
0.1
(0.6)
(0.8)
(0.1)
0.0
(0.1)
0.3
(0.3)
0.6
1.3
(0.1)
(0.5)
0.1
% chg
5.0
4.8
4.2
3.3
3.2
Cons.
2.6
11.4K
6.6
0.2
4.3
% chg 3m
6.3
7.1
6.4
4.0
0.1
4.0
3.5
6.2
8.5
7.1
(0.1)
2.3
(0.3)
6.2
% chg 6m
16.4
16.5
24.6
18.0
(5.5)
Top losers
Underlying security
Shriram Trans.
Indian Bank
GPPL
Idea Cellular
Bank Of India
Upcoming eco. data
US CPI
US Retail Sales
Canada NHPI
US Industrial Production
UK Unemploy Rate
Previous day
182
336
1,103
718
MTD
(1,825)
4,788
874
19,244
7.6
6.9
13.3
5.2
14.1
(0.2)
8.0
0.5
16.3
CMP
1,014
296
146
84
144
Cons.
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
4.6
% chg ytd
19.5
19.2
31.2
24.0
5.2
8.3
8.3
17.4
5.3
18.4
6.0
8.3
2.6
19.8
% chg
(3.9)
(3.5)
(3.4)
(3.3)
(3.2)
Previous
(0.1)
(0.3)
0.8
0.0
4.6
YTD
21,092
24,933
94,860
209,483
Waiting Wednesday! Neither here, nor there
Life was always a matter of waiting for the right moment to act. Paulo
Coelho
The market movement in recent times is defying most concerns about
valuations or impact of geo-political events. The appetite for risk saw the
BSE’s valuation of all listed companies cross a record high of Rs 130 lakh
crore on Tuesday before profit booking pared some of the gains. US
indices reacted to another Trump issue after reports stated that emails by
President Donald Trump’s eldest son had cited Russian support for his
father’s 2016 election campaign. Meanwhile, attention now will be on
what Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen says during the two days of semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill. The outlook is a flat opening with a
positive bias for now. Asian markets are in wait and watch mode.
Nifty intra-day movement
Banknifty intra-day movement
9,840
23,800
9,800
23,660
23,730
9,820
23,590
9,780
9,760
9,740
09:15
11:20
Sectoral movement
13:25
5
15:30
% chg 1d
4
3
23,520
23,450
09:15
11:20
13:25
15:30
% chg 5d
2
1
0
(1)
(2)
IT
Auto
FMCG
Energy
Realty
Media
Pharma
Fin
Services
Infra
Bank
Corporate Snippets & Economy Updates
Corporate News

BhartiAirtelconductingtrialsofVoLTEtechnologyinfivecircles

TataSteelsignsdefinitiveagreementwithLibertyHouseGroup

JetAirwayseyestoraisecapitalforexpansionplans

Tata Power's Club Enerji helps save 23,31,824 units of energy in
MumbaiinFY17

ONGC'soverseasarmtobidinLebanongasfieldauction

IOC, LanzaTech to construct world's first refinery off gas‐to‐
bioethanolproductionfacilityinIndia

TataSteelcommissionsfirst3MWsolarpowerplantatNoamundi

EmamispendsRs.443cronadvertising,promotionsinFY17

Chandni Textiles to commence commercial production at newly
expandedproject

BrahmaputraInfrastructurebagsorderworthRs.116.6cr
Economy News

Governmentlikelytoimposecountervailingdutyof18.95%onsome
steelproducts
Results table
Rsm
IndusIndBank
TheSouthIndianBank
CCLProducts(India)
Revenue
17,741
4,607
1,782
YoY%
30.8
23.3
2.9
PAT
8,366
1,015
206
YoY%
26.5
6.7
(16.6)
Upcoming Events
Jul12: Japan PPI, Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment, Japan
Tertiary Industry Activity, UK Average Earnings Index, UK
UnemploymentRate,EurozoneIndustrialProduction,German
10‐y Bond Auction, Canada Overnight Rate, US Crude Oil
Inventories,US10‐yBondAuction
Jul13: NewZealandFPI,UKRICSHousePriceBalance,AustraliaMI
Inflation Expectations, China Trade Balance, China USD‐
DenominatedTradeBalance,GermanFinalCPI,FrenchFinal
CPI,CanadaNHPI,USPPI,USUnemploymentClaims,USCore
PPI,USFederalBudgetBalance
Jul14: NewZealandBusinessNZManufacturingIndex,JapanRevised
IndustrialProduction,ItalianTradeBalance,EurozoneTrade
Balance,USCPI,USCoreRetailSales,USCapacityUtilization
Rate, US Industrial Production, US Prelim UoM Consumer
Sentiment,USBusinessInventories
Newssource:AceEquity
RESULT UPDATE Q1 FY18
July 12, 2017
IndusInd Bank - BUY
Strengtheningfranchise
Loan growth on strong trajectory; mix to tilt towards consumer fin
IndusIndBank’sloangrowthmoderatedabitto24%yoyonthebackof
growth deceleration in both retail (~40% of loan book) and corporate
(~60%)assetportfolios.Intheformer’scase,growthinthevehiclefinance
piece (comprising ~60% excluding CE) remained sedate at 13% yoy
weigheddownbyindustryadjustmentstowardstheimplementationofBS
IV and GST. CV financing portfolio growth was healthy at 12.5% yoy,
considering weak trend in industry volumes. Growth in car and
constructionequipmentfinancingremainedstrongasthebankcontinues
to gain market share. Other products in the consumer finance portfolio
suchascreditcards,tractorloansandLAParegrowingatrobustpace.
IndusInd’scorporatebookhasbeengrowingintherangeof25‐30%yoy
forthepastseveralquartersmanifestingwalletsharegainsandimpressive
customer addition underpinned by improving pricing competitiveness.
More importantly, the rating profile of this portfolio has been gradually
improving and nature of lending remains that of short‐term/working
capital. The bank is well positioned to grow at 25‐30% pa given its
impressiveproductandcapitalposition.Theportfoliomixwillstarttilting
towardsconsumerfinanceasgrowthinvehiclefinanceproductsrecover.
SA ratio jumps, boosting CASA; NIM was stable
Notwithstandingasizeableexpansioninoveralldepositbase,theSAratio
jumped 220bps qoq to 23.6% driven by intensifying traction in both
granularandinstitutionalflow.Contrarily,CAgrowthremainsrelatively
weak.OverallCASAratiostoodat38%,highernearly350bpsyoy.Gains
from higher CASA, resilient consumer book yields and interest income
recognitiononaparticularaccountwerelargelyutilizedforbuildinghigh‐
rated corporate loans. Thus, the NIM was flat at 4%. Fee income grew
behind the balance sheet at 25% yoy; impacted by weakness in loan
processingfees.
CMP(Rs)1,560
12‐mtsTarget(Rs)1,820
Upside16.7%
Stock data (As on July 11, 2017)
Sector: Financials
Stock performance
31,747
Sensex:
IndusIndBank
SENSEX
1572/1038
150
52Weekh/l(Rs):
93,437
125
Marketcap(Rsmn):
‐
Enterprisevalue(Rsmn):
100
6mAvgt/o(Rsmn):
1,414
75
FV(Rs):
Jul‐16
Oct‐16
Feb‐17
Jun‐17
10
0.4
Divyield(%):
Shareholding pattern (%)
IIBIN
Bloombergcode:
16.8
Promoter
62.4
532187
BSEcode:
FII+DII
20.8
Others
INDUSINDBK
NSEcode:
Figure 1: Result table
Q1FY18 Q4FY17
%qoq Q1FY17
%yoy
Y/e31Mar(Rsm)
TotalOperatingIncome
41,355
38,300
8.0
32,917
25.6
InterestExpenses
(23,615) (21,626)
9.2 (19,353)
22.0
NetInterestIncome
6.4 13,564
30.8
17,741 16,675
Otherincome
11,673 12,113
(3.6)
9,730
20.0
TotalIncome
29,413 28,788
2.2 23,294
26.3
Operatingexpenses
(13,528) (13,065)
3.5 (10,956)
23.5
Provisions
(3,100)
(4,301)
(27.9)
(2,305)
34.5
12,786 11,421
11.9 10,033
27.4
PBT
Tax
(4,420)
(3,905)
13.2
(3,419)
29.3
ReportedPAT
8,365
7,516
11.3
6,614
26.5
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Analyst:RajivMehta,FranklinMoraes
IndusInd Bank (Q1 FY18)
Figure 2: Business Mix
Business(Rsmn)
Advances
ConsumerFinance
%share
CorporateBanking
%share
Deposits
Current
Savings
TermDeposits
Q1FY18
11,64,070
4,70,950
40.5
6,93,120
59.5
13,36,730
1,89,450
3,15,560
8,31,720
Q4FY17
11,30,805
4,55,285
40.3
6,75,520
59.7
12,65,722
1,96,090
2,70,370
7,99,262
%qoq
2.9
3.4
‐
2.6
‐
5.6
(3.4)
16.7
4.1
Q1FY17
9,36,780
3,85,910
41.2
5,50,870
58.8
10,17,680
1,59,520
1,90,910
6,67,250
%yoy
24.3
22.0
‐
25.8
‐
31.4
18.8
65.3
24.6
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
Figure 3: Key Ratios
KeyRatios
NIM(%)
YieldonAdvances(%)
CostofDeposits(%)
CASA(%)
C/D(x)
Non‐interestincome(%)
Non‐intinc/Intexp(%)
CosttoIncome(%)
Prov/AvgAdv(%Ann)
RoE(%)
RoA(%)
CAR(%)
GrossNPA(%)
NetNPA(%)
Q1FY18 Q4FY17
4.0 4.0 11.5 11.4 6.2 6.1 37.8 36.0 0.9 0.9 39.7 42.1 49.4 56.0 46.0 45.4 1.1
1.6
16.2 15.1 1.9 1.7 16.2 15.3 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.4 chgqoq Q1FY17
0.0 4.0 0.1 12.1 0.1 6.9 1.8 34.4 (0.0) 0.9 (2.4) 41.8 (6.6) 50.3 0.6 47.0 (0.5)
1.0
1.1 15.1 0.1 1.9 0.9 15.4 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.4 chgyoy
0.0 (0.5) (0.8) 3.4 (0.0) (2.1) (0.8) (1.0) 0.1
1.1 (0.1) 0.8 0.2 0.1 Stable asset quality; prudent utilization of provisioning release
ThereportedincreaseingrossNPLratioto1.1%wasdrivenbyslippageof
two restructured accounts (consortium exposures) and thus overall
stressed portfolio was stable. Barring this, the annualized delinquency
ratio in the corporate segment was within control at <1%. Slippages in
consumerfinancesegmentwereslightlyhigherthantherangeseenover
the past couple of years. CV, UV, small CV, Tractors and LAP products
witnessedanincreaseindelinquencyrate.Whileprovisioning(~Rs1.2bn)
on the Jaypee exposure got released on repayment by the acquirer,
UltratechCement,alargepartofitwasutilizedtowardscreatingafloating
provision and making accelerated provisions towards SRs and MFI
portfolio.IndusIndBankhaslargelyprovidedfortheportfolioatriskinthe
MFIsegment.Standardassetprovisioningwasalsoraisedto75bpsincase
oftheTelecomexposure.Thus,annualizedcreditcostforthequarterstood
above trend at 110bps. Overall PCR increased to 60% from 58% in the
previousquarter.
Robust execution can re-rate valuation further; maintain BUY
WeexpectIndusIndbanktodeliverindustry‐best30%earningsCAGRover
FY17‐19drivenbysustainedrobustbalancesheetgrowth,firmmargins,
optimization of cost/income ratio and moderation in credit cost. Rich
valuation at 3.4x FY19 P/ABV should not dissuade long term investors
given IndusInd Bank’s impressive track‐record and strengthening
franchisegrowthandprofitability.WeretainBUYratingonthebankand
raise12‐monthpricetargettoRs1,820.
Source:Company,IIFLResearch
IndusInd Bank (Q1 FY18)
Figure 4: Financial summary
Y/e31Mar(Rsmn)
Totaloperatingincome
yoygrowth(%)
Op.profit(pre‐prov.)
Netprofit
yoygrowth(%)
EPS(Rs)
BVPS(Rs)
P/E(x)
P/BV(x)
ROE(%)
ROA(%)
Dividendyield(%)
CAR(%)
FY16
77,763
33.5
41,415
22,865
27.5
38.4
292.0
40.6
5.3
16.1
1.8
0.3
15.5
FY17
102,338
31.6
54,507
28,676
25.4
47.9
338.0
32.5
4.6
15.0
1.8
0.4
15.3
FY18E
127,977
25.1
68,667
36,760
28.2
61.5
386.7
25.4
4.0
16.6
1.8
0.5
13.6
FY19E
163,067
27.4
88,336
48,317
31.4
80.8
455.1
19.3
3.4
18.7
1.9
0.5
12.5
Technical Track
Amid a largely chaotic Monday session, Nifty formed a fresh lifetime high of
9,782.However,theTuesdayfollow‐upupsidemoveprovedunconvincingeven
astheindexfailedtoclingtothetopdespitescalinganewpeakof9,830.Selling
pressure in Bank Nifty and Midcap noon trades erased a few early morning
gains.
Profitbooking,presenceofGannsupplypoint(i.e.4‐digitgannnumberof9851)
and lucas series number (i.e. 9863) contributed to Tuesday’s decline.
Candlesticktooktheshapeofasmallbodywithalonghighershadow,suggesting
a pause after the recent surge. Moreover, sectoral trend turned cautious, as
barringAutoandIT,allspacesendedinred.
Company
IndusBank
IGL
Vakrangee
Infratel
TataGlobal
CMP 52‐wk Deviation
(Rs)
Low
%
264
257
(2.6)
255
243
(4.9)
56
53
(5.1)
850
806
(5.2)
272
257
(5.3)
Company
VideoInd.
RCOM
DivisLab
JubFood.
JSPL
CMP
(Rs)
30
24
735
1,091
139
Company(mn)
Suzlon
RCOM
AshokLeyland
IdeaCellular
Hindalco
Day'sVol.
93
38
23
21
15
2‐weekAvg.
Vol
48
30
17
9
9
10‐DMA
19
22
100
84
195
CMP(Rs)
19
24
105
84
201
%chg
2.7
(0.6)
1.5
(3.3)
2.5
Index Pivot
Index
Nifty
Sensex
NiftyBank
NiftyIT
Lastclose
9,786
31,747
23,585
10,430
Intra-day advance decline
Proximity to 50-DMA
20‐ Deviation
DMA
% Company
23
30.4 UnitedSpirits
21
14.3 JSPL
658
11.7 Guj Fluoro.
983
11.0 Vakrangee
126
10.32 Ashok Ley
% CMP
Delivery (Rs) %chg
9.0
605
(0.1)
13.0
252
3.2
‐
‐
‐
15.0 1,091
(1.9)
16.0 1,710
0.1
Spurt in volumes
*Basedondeviationfrom52‐weekhigh/low
Proximity to 20-DMA
CMP
%
(Rs) chg Company
1,680
0.2 JetAirways
5,446 (0.5) Hexaware
908 (0.5) ‐
30
5.0 JubFood.
212
0.3 TataElxsi
Laggards
CMP 52‐wk Deviation
(Rs)
high
% Company
1,561 1,571
(0.6) OIL
1,118 1,128
(0.9) CoalIndia
450
456
(1.4) IDBI
410
416
(1.5) Amara Raj.
170
173
(1.6) TataM DVR
%
Delivery
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
84.0
Company
HDFCBank
Glaxo.Cons.
Cummins
VideoconInd.
PowerGrid
Fund action
 AshishKacholiabought1.2mnsharesofBodalChematRs165.
Leaders
Low delivery stocks High delivery stocks
Advance
CMP
50‐ Deviation
(Rs) DMA
%
2,640 2,237
18.0
139
120
15.8
827
717
15.3
450
392
14.8
105
92
14.1
1,250
950
650
350
50
09:15
11:20
13:25
Pivot
9,798
31,783
23,628
10,458
Resistance
9,817
31,848
23,703
10,583
Sectoral trend
Decline
1,550
*Basedondeviationfrommovingaverages
Support
9,766
31,681
23,511
10,304
15:30
Energy
Realty
IT
Metal
Pharma
Auto
Infra
Bank
FMCG
Media
FinServices
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.5
(%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
*Calculationsbasedon10‐DMA
Derivatives Diary
Index snapshot
Nifty
BankNifty
Futures
9,787
23,617
%Chg
0.1
(0.2)
Spot
9,786
23,585
Basis
1.00
32.00
Next
Month
9,822
23,675
OIinshs
272,501
64,984

Niftycontinuetoscalenewhighs,SGXNiftyindicatesmildpositive
startforthedaytowards9805levels.Heavyweighttechstocksresult
infocusfromtraders.

Niftystrike9,600/9,700callssawmajorunwindingtotuneof2/5.1
lacs shares respectively, while put writers continues to build
positionsonOTMoptionsof9,600strike.

FII’s index futures long/short ratio at 2.62x vs 2.61x with massive
long stock futures positions seen in last two days from FII’s after
deadlineonP‐notesfromSEBI.

ITstockssawrenewedbuyinginterestasweapproachtheresultfor
TCSduetomorrow.
Nifty open interest distribution
(mn)
8.0
Call
Put
7.0
6.0
PCROI
1.40
1.19
PCRVol
1.20
0.99
ATMIV's
9.4
14.5
Rollovers
9.6%
5.0%
Maxcall
build‐up
9,800
23,500
Maxput
build‐up
9,600
23,000
Futures open interest gainers
Scrip
Ajantpharm
Amarajabat
Lichsgfin
Torntpharm
Colpal
Indusindbk
BPCL
OI(lacs)
6
16
49
3
14
53
124
%OIChg
49.6
18.6
18.4
10.9
10.3
9.3
8.4
CMP(Rs)
1,506
855
729
1,330
1,084
1,555
678
%Chg
(2.7)
(1.8)
(2.4)
2.5
(1.5)
(0.1)
1.8
Action
ShortBuildup
ShortBuildup
ShortBuildup
LongBuildup
ShortBuildup
ShortBuildup
LongBuildup
CMP(Rs)
105
1,179
396
272
203
2,796
323
%Chg
1.0
(2.1)
(2.7)
1.1
(4.7)
1.9
(0.6)
Action
ShortCovering
LongUnwinding
LongUnwinding
ShortCovering
LongUnwinding
ShortCovering
LongUnwinding
Futures open interest losers
Scrip
Ashokley
Concor
Bhartiartl
Hindzinc
Ibrealest
Bajaj‐Auto
Marico
OI(lacs)
547
8
307
140
324
15
38
%OIChg
(10.4)
(8.4)
(7.0)
(5.6)
(5.3)
(5.1)
(5.0)
Table 1: FIIsderivativeactivity
5.0
4.0
3.0
Tradingturnover
2.0
10400
10300
10200
10100
10000
9900
9800
9700
9600
9500
9400
9300
9200
9100
1.0
0.0
OI%Chg
1.7
(3.2)
FIIs
IndexFut*
1,531
StockFut*
16,611
IndexCalls*
24,152
IndexPuts*
(14,083)
DIIs
0
3,077
0
0
Prop
HNIClients
(133)
(371)
(19,640)
(1,398)
(19,317)
(4,512)
(13,982)
28,065
*Noofcontracts
Securities in ban period:Hdil,Ibrealest,Jpassociat,Jsw,Ujjivan
Commodities & Currencies Cues
Commodities
(US$terms)
Gold(troyoz)
Silver(troyoz)
Copper(MT)
Aluminium
(MT)
Zinc(MT)
Lead(MT)
Nickel(MT)
WTICrude
(bbl)
Br.Crude(bbl)
NG(mmBtu)
Currencies
USD/INR
EUR/INR
GBP/INR
12.2 JPY/INR
9.7 EUR/USD
14.6 GBP/USD
(8.4) USD/JPY
1,900
0.0
2,825
2,311
9,175
0.2
0.2
0.5
45.7
1.5
(14.9)
48.1
3.00
1.3
(0.2)
(15.3)
(18.4)
CommodityDynamics
SPDRGoldETF(tonnes)
iSharesSilverETF(mnoz)
LMECuStocks('000MT)
LMEAlStocks('000MT)
LMEZnStocks('000MT)
LMEPbStocks('000MT)
LMENiStocks('000MT)
USCrudestocks(mnbbl)
USOilRigCount
USD/CNY
USD/Real
USDIndex
Latest
832
345
320
1,378
276
159
373
503
763
Weekago
846
340
276
1,402
287
163
371
509
756
Commodity v/s Currency
Last %chg %chg
price
1d
ytd
64.60
0.0
5.2
73.60
0.0
(2.6)
83.40
0.0
0.1
0.56
0.0
2.9
1.15
1.28
113.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.1
4.1
2.9
6.79
0.0
2.2
3.25
95.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
(6.4)
CRBIndex(LHS)
105
400
101
300
200
99
100
97
0
Jul‐17
Jun‐17
May‐17
Apr‐17
95
(100)
Jun‐17
160
May‐17
170
Mar‐17
1yrago
981
343
223
2,344
440
185
378
496
341
Silver
Crude
May‐17
180
500
103
Apr‐17
190
Mar‐17
6mago
805
338
288
2,244
425
193
372
479
529
Gold
Copper
('000lots)
Mar‐17
DollarIndex(RHS)
Feb‐17
200
1mago
867
340
277
1,456
323
177
377
510
733
Speculative positions on CME
Jan‐17
Last %chg %chg
Price
1d
ytd
1,219
0.1
6.2
15.9
0.4
0.0
5,901
0.4
6.6
Feb‐17
FX
Euro surged towards 1.5 level against the greenback, as market
participants remain confident regarding prospects of tapering in ECB’s
bond purchases and a rate hike in the second half of next year. Pound
struggled despite a recovery in British retail sales during the second
quarter.Itseemsdippingbusinessconfidencelevelsduetouncertainty
over Brexit is taking a toll on the currency. Yen also remains on the
defensiveduetodiminishingpopularityofJapanesePMAbe.Meanwhile,
Looniecontinuestotradeonafirmnotegiventhehighexpectationsthat
BankofCanadawillhikeinterestratesthisweek.Thiscomesafterthe
CentralBank’sgovernorstatedrecentlythatthecountry’sinflationwill
movehigherinfirsthalfofnextyearandthepolicynormalisationprocess
shouldbeginmuchbeforeinflationarypressureexceedsitstarget.
Jan‐17
Commodities
Goldpricesextendedtherecovery,reboundingfromfourmonthlow,as
political uncertainty aggravates in US. Meanwhile, investors await cues
from Fed Chief’s testimony to Congress. However, there seem to be
divergentviewsfromtheFedasfaraspolicynormalisationisconcerned.
AlthoughYellenseemstobepersistingwithratehikes,someoftheFed
membershaveexpressedcautionregardingslowwagegrowthandlow
inflation. There has been a high degree of inconsistency between wage
growth and unemployment rate, which has been very confounding.
Experts reckon that if labour markets are really tight, then it should
naturallytranslateintohigherwagegrowth.Intermsoflegislativenews,
Trump administration will again put forward the healthcare bill in the
Senatenextweek,however,itstillremainsunclearwhetherRepublicans
havetherequiredmajoritytonavigateitthroughastubbornopposition.
WTIOilfutureshoveredaroundUS$45/bblmark,stabilisingtoanextent
aftersessionsofintensifiedselling.Meanwhile,GoldmanSachsreported
thatWTIcouldsinkfurthertoUS$40/bbl,ifthereisnoseriousmitigation
intheinventorylevels.
Allocation & View – Assets & Sectors
Asset Allocation
Model
Portolios
Asset
Allocations
Equity
Asset Class View
Moderately
Conservative Conservative
(%)
(%)
Balanced
(%)
SAA
TAA
SAA
10
10
30
30
45
80
85
58
63
RealEstate
0
0
5
Alternatives
5
5
LiquidAssets
5
0
100
100
100
FixedIncome
Total
TAA SAA TAA
Moderately
Aggressive
(%)
Aggressive
(%)
SAA
TAA
SAA
TAA
45
55
55
70
70
41
46
25
30
8
13
5
7
7
10
10
12
12
5
2
5
2
8
5
8
5
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
100 100
100
100
100
100
100
FixedIncome
Equity
RealEstate
USDollar
Gold
MarketNeutral
LiquidAssets
Neutral
Overweight
Neutral
Overweight
Overweight
Overweight
Underweight
Sector View for listed equities
Sector
Agriculture
Automobile
CapitalGoods
Cement
ConsumerDiscretionary
Housingfinance
MFI's
PrivateBank
PSUBank
FMCG
Infrastructure
IT
Metals&Mining
E&P
OilMarketing
UtilitiesGas
Pharma
Telecom
Utilities
Source:IIFLResearch
Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocations across Model Portfolios
StrategicAssetAllocation(SAA)isthelongtermassetallocationstrategy
for a client that is arrived at on the basis of risk assessment and
investment objectives. There are five model portfolios that have asset
allocationstosuitdifferentriskprofiles.Themodelportfolioshavebeen
optimized using historical risk and returns across asset classes. Every
month the IIFLW investment Committee formalizes monthly tactical
viewsonthemarketsandtheirimpactonvariousassetclasses.
TacticalviewsoneachassetarewithaoneyeartimehorizonandTactical
Asset Allocation (TAA) is a +/‐ 5%‐10% change to a Client’s broader
StrategicAssetAllocation.
TacticalView
SAA–StrategicAssetAllocation;TAA–TacticalAssetAllocation
AssetClass
Weight
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Underweight
Overweight
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
Underweight
Overweight
Overweight
Underweight
Underweight
Neutral
IIFL Wealth Research bags 2 Best Analyst Awards
IIFLWealthResearchhasbaggedtwoprestigiousawardsattheZeeBusinessMarketExcellenceAwards2016.
PrayeshJainwasconferredtheBestAnalystAwardforAutosectorandBhaveshGandhibaggedtheBestAnalystAwardforPharmasector.
Besidesthetwinawards,IIFLWealthResearchwasalsonominatedinthecategoriesofOil/Gas,BankingandIndustrials.
IIFLWealthResearch,asyouknow,hasalwaysprideditselfonitsuniquevaluepropositioninaswarmingmarketspaceofcut‐throatcompetition,amongotherthings,
onourwealthofactionableideas,tailoredportfolioapproachandthoroughresearchinlinewithclientneedsandpriorities,distinctivepracticeoffollowingupwith
CallSuccesspostrecommendationsandavastcoverageuniverseofasmanyas300companies(comprising70%ofIndia'sequitymcap).
Inthepast,theresearchteamhaswonZeeBizAwardsunderdifferentcategories;Bloomberghasratedourresearchasthemostaccurate,whilewehavetwice
beenwinnersofBusinessStandardSmartPortfolios,havingreceivedawardsatthehandsofluminariesincludingPresidentPranabMukherjee,PrimeMinister
NarendraModiandMinisterofStatePiyushGoyal.
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:
Buy=>15%+
Accumulate=5%to15%
Reduce=‐10%to5%
Sell=>‐10%
ABOUT IIFL Wealth Management Limited
IIFLWealthManagementLimited(hereinafterreferredasIIFLW),aCompanyincorporatedunderCompaniesAct,1956,isregisteredwithSEBIasPortfolioManagerandasaStockBroker.IIFLWisalso
registeredwithAMFIasadistributorofmutualfunds.IIFLWprovideswealthmanagementservicestovariousHNI/UltraHNIclientsandinteraliadistributesvarioussecuritiesandfinancialproducts,
includingmutualfunds,alternativeinvestmentfunds,debenturesandstructuredproducts.IIFLWhasmadenecessaryapplicationforregisteringitselfasaDepositoryParticipant.
Contact Details -CorporateOffice–IIFLCentre,KamalaCity,SenapatiBapatMarg,LowerParel,Mumbai–400013,Regd.Office–IIFLWHouse,SunInfotechPark,RoadNo.16V,PlotNo.B‐23,MIDC,
ThaneIndustrialArea,WagleEstate,Thane–400604Tel:(91‐22)39585600.Fax:(91‐22)46464706E‐mail:[email protected]:www.iiflw.com.
Registration Details 1]CINNo.:U74140MH2008PLC177884;2]SEBIPMSRegn.NoINP000002676:3]NationalStockExchangeofIndiaLtd.SEBIRegn.No.:INZ000011437,BombayStockExchangeLtd.SEBIRegn.No.:
INZ0000114374]AMFIRegnNo.:59563
Terms&ConditionsandOtherDisclosureswithrespecttoResearchReport:‐
a) Thisresearchreport(“Report”)isforthepersonalinformationoftheauthorisedrecipient(s)andisnotforpublicdistributionandshouldnotbereproducedorredistributedtoanyotherpersonorinanyformwithout
IIFLW’spriorpermission.TheinformationprovidedintheReportisfrompubliclyavailabledata,whichIIFLWbelieves,isreliable.WhilereasonableendeavorshavebeenmadetopresentreliabledataintheReportsofar
asitrelatestocurrentandhistoricalinformation,butIIFLWdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyorcompletenessofthedataintheReport.Accordingly,IIFLWoranyofitsconnectedpersonsincludingitsdirectorsorsubsidiaries
orassociatesoremployeesshallnotbeinanywayresponsibleforanylossordamagethatmayarisetoanypersonfromanyinadvertenterrorintheinformationcontained,viewsandopinionsexpressedinthispublication;
b)
Pastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasanindicationorguaranteeoffutureperformance,andnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismaderegardingfutureperformance.Information,opinionsandestimates
containedinthisreportreflectajudgmentofitsoriginaldateofpublicationbyIIFLWandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Theprice,valueofandincomefromanyofthesecuritiesorfinancialinstrumentsmentioned
inthisreportcanfallaswellasrise.Thevalueofsecuritiesandfinancialinstrumentsissubjecttoexchangeratefluctuationthatmayhaveapositiveoradverseeffectonthepriceorincomeofsuchsecuritiesorfinancial
instruments.
c)
TheReportalsoincludesanalysisandviewsofourresearchteam.TheReportispurelyforinformationpurposesanddoesnotconstruetobeinvestmentrecommendation/adviceoranofferorsolicitationofanofferto
buy/sellanysecurities.TheopinionsexpressedintheReportareourcurrentopinionsasofthedateoftheReportandmaybesubjecttochangefromtimetotimewithoutnotice.IIFLWoranypersonsconnectedwithitdo
notacceptanyliabilityarisingfromtheuseofthisdocument.
d)
InvestorsshouldnotsolelyrelyontheinformationcontainedinthisReportandmustmakeinvestmentdecisionsbasedontheirowninvestmentobjectives,judgment,riskprofileandfinancialposition.Therecipientsof
thisReportmaytakeprofessionaladvicebeforeactingonthisinformation.
e)
IIFLWhasotherbusinesssegments/divisionswithindependentresearchteamsseparatedby'chinesewalls'cateringtodifferentsetsofcustomershavingvaryingobjectives,riskprofiles,investmenthorizon,etc.and
therefore,mayattimeshave,differentandcontraryviewsonstocks,sectorsandmarkets.
f)
Thisreportisnotdirectedorintendedfordistributionto,oruseby,anypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanylocality,state,countryorotherjurisdiction,wheresuchdistribution,publication,
availabilityorusewouldbecontrarytolocallaw,regulationorwhichwouldsubjectIIFLWanditsaffiliatestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction.Thesecuritiesdescribedhereinmayormay
notbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoryofinvestors.PersonsinwhosepossessionthisReportmaycomearerequiredtoinformthemselvesofandtoobservesuchrestrictions.
g)
AsIIFLWalongwithitssubsidiariesandassociates,areengagedinvariousfinancialservicesbusinessandsomighthavefinancial,businessorotherinterestsinotherentitiesincludingthesubjectcompany/iesmentioned
inthisReport.However,IIFLWencouragesindependenceinpreparationofresearchreportandstrivestominimizeconflictinpreparationofresearchreport.IIFLWanditsassociatesdidnotreceiveanycompensationor
otherbenefitsfromthesubjectcompany/iesmentionedintheReportorfromathirdpartyinconnectionwithpreparationoftheReport.Accordingly,IIFLWanditsassociatesdonothaveanymaterialconflictofinterestat
thetimeofpublicationofthisReport.
h)
AsIIFLWanditsassociatesareengagedinvariousfinancialservicesbusiness,itmighthave:‐
(a)receivedanycompensation(exceptinconnectionwiththepreparationofthisReport)fromthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(b)managedorco‐managedpublicofferingofsecuritiesforthesubject
companyinthepasttwelvemonths;(c)receivedanycompensationforinvestmentbankingormerchantbankingorbrokerageservicesfromthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(d)receivedanycompensation
forproductsorservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingormerchantbankingorbrokerageservicesfromthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(e)engagedinmarketmakingactivityforthesubjectcompany;
IIFLWanditsassociatescollectivelydonotown(intheirproprietaryposition)1%ormoreoftheequitysecuritiesofthesubjectcompany/iesmentionedinthereportasofthelastdayofthemonthprecedingthepublication
oftheresearchreportanddoesnothavematerialconflictofinterestattimeofpublicationoftheresearchreport;
i)
TheResearchAnalyst/sengagedinpreparationofthisReportorhis/herdependentrelative;
(a)doesnothaveanyfinancialinterestsinthesubjectcompany/iesmentionedinthisreport;(b)doesnotown1%ormoreoftheequitysecuritiesofthesubjectcompanymentionedinthereportasofthelastdayofthe
monthprecedingthepublicationoftheresearchreport;(c)doesnothaveanyothermaterialconflictofinterestatthetimeofpublicationoftheresearchreport.
j)
TheResearchAnalyst/sengagedinpreparationofthisReport:‐
(a)hasnotreceivedanycompensationfromthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(b)hasnotmanagedorco‐managedpublicofferingofsecuritiesforthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(c)hasnot
receivedanycompensationforinvestmentbankingormerchantbankingorbrokerageservicesfromthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(d)hasnotreceivedanycompensationforproductsorservicesother
thaninvestmentbankingormerchantbankingorbrokerageservicesfromthesubjectcompanyinthepasttwelvemonths;(e)hasnotreceivedanycompensationorotherbenefitsfromthesubjectcompanyorthirdparty
inconnectionwiththeresearchreport;(f)hasnotservedasanofficer,directororemployeeofthesubjectcompany;(g)isnotengagedinmarketmakingactivityforthesubjectcompany.
WesubmitthatnomaterialdisciplinaryactionhasbeentakenonIIFLWbyanyregulatoryauthorityimpactingEquityResearchAnalysis.
Agraphofdailyclosingpricesofsecuritiesisavailableathttp://www.nseindia.com/ChartApp/install/charts/mainpage.jsp,www.bseindia.comandhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock‐quotes.(Choose
acompanyfromthelistonthebrowserandselectthe“threeyears”periodinthepricechart).
ForResearchrelatedqueries,writeto:AmarAmbani,[email protected].