Download FUTURES TRADING week two: recap and lessons

Evaluation group members
Harmony Bee Lina Ruiji
MFRE Portfolio Performance
A DELIGHTFUL TREND
Sep.23 Monday morning
Sep.27 Friday Night
Rank
Username
Portfolio Value
%Return
1
ten017
101,109.32
1.11%
2
UBC-FRE501-Win2013-a
100,376.82
0.38%
3
sueyjiang
100,166.82
0.17%
4
jmfercov
100,049.32
0.05%
5
abamex
100,049.32
0.05%
6
UBC-FRE501-Win2013-b
100,049.32
0.05%
22%
78%
POSITIVE
RETURN
INITIAL
PERFORMANCE
Rank
Username
Portfolio
Value
%Return
1
wrj1991
123,110.24
23.11%
2
behzad
116,407.81
16.41%
3
Amandaji
113,777.93
13.78%
4
LindaMao
109,653.15
9.65%
104,909.93
4.91%
5
48%
Mia
52%
6
brendanmccaffery
103,652.77
3.65%
7
dongp
102,667.47
2.67%
8
Airlie
102,615.60
2.62%
9
YiwenChen
102,483.55
2.48%
10
sueyjiang
102,155.91
2.16%
11
Weilin
101,215.42
1.22%
12
yifeipeng
100,547.92
FINAL
PERFORMANCE
0.55%
13
UBC-FRE501-Win2013-a
100,292.93
0.29%
14
UBC-FRE501-Win2013-b
100,090.44
0.09%
MFRE Portfolio Performance
Behzad
PORTFOLIO
VALUE
%RETURN
RANK
$ 90,746.80
$113,777.93
$ 96,836.80
$116,407.81
$ 93,624.24
$123,110.24
- 9.25%
13.78%
- 3.16%
16.41%
- 6.38%
23.11%
24
17
20
3
2
1
MFRE Portfolio Performance
Alex
Rank
8 → 27
$99,574.30(-0.43%)
$81,958.02(-18.04%)
Mia
Rank
27 → 5
$ 86,634.24(-13.37%)
$104,909,93(4.91%)
MFRE Portfolio Performance
$ 93,286.66
-6.71%
Rank 21
$128,321.17
28.32%
Rank 1
$ 94,467.51
-5.53%
Rank 22
MFRE Portfolio Performance
Market Recap
What Happened?
Not a lot! It was a pretty quiet week!
Until Monday’s USDA Report. Then things
started to move quickly! (we’ll get to that in
a minute)
Soybeans
What Was Going On Last Week?
SOYBEAN  week ending at 0.25% gain
 Surging US export sales – steady demand from China
Corn
What Was Going On Last Week?
CORN  week ending, advanced 0.65%
 First weekly gain in a month
 Prediction: downward trend as there is an improve in US
midwest condition
Wheat
What Was Going On Last Week?
WHEAT  week ending, gain 5.4%
 Price climbing to two months high (robust demand):
 Argentina winter crop -- Argentina is one of the
largest wheat exporter
 Flood in China – import more
 Wheat shortage in Russia – ban export
USDA Grain Report
USDA GRAIN REPORT : 11AM Monday September 30th
DID YOU GO SHORT?
USDA Grain Report
CORN
Futures plunged to a 3 year low closing
at 441.5 USDA boosted its inventory estimates by 25%.
“The market is going to be dealing with big
corn supplies for the next year, and that’s
going to limit rallies”
Dale Durcholz (taken from bloomberg.com)
There is talk of corn hitting a low of almost 400?!
USDA Grain Report
WHEAT
Futures for December delivery fell 0.7% to
678.5 countering a price rise in the previous five sessions (the
longest
rally
since
mid-March).
The report was in linen with expectations and upped its stock
and production estimates and also revised world demand
upwards.
SOYBEANS
Lost 2.75% (the largest drop in six months)
and closed at 1,282.75 as supplies topped analyst estimates
by 11% (original estimates of 661 bushels revised to 694
bushels).
Inventories are at 141 bushels and demand predictions
have tumbled 41% from August estimates.
Strategies for the week ahead
1. Stay V.S Trade?
2. Notice harvest season & weather report
3. Think globally, act locally
4. don’t panic when prices shrink, believe your
research
5. get up early!
Resources and Information








agfax.com
Daily news updates on Southern cotton, rice,
peanuts, corn, wheat and soybeans and
information on insect, weed and disease control in
row crops.
futuresmag.com
News, analysis, and strategies for futures, options,
and derivative traders. Includes charts, daily
columns, blogs, and video.
commodityhq.com
Educational content, analysis, and commentary
regarding commodities and futures.
agrimoney.com
The latest UK and international news, comment
and analysis on soft commodities , agriculture
companies and farm investment
Best 5 Blog Winners!
Why You Rocked!
Creativity was
king… or at least it should be!
(we’ll get into the reasons why in a minute)
Assigned a ranking based on the following 4 criteria.
Why You Rocked!
Different Styles
Airlie is the creativity Queen!
Have you read her blog?!? You should!
Not only did she analyze her portfolio and the market on
a daily basis, but she brilliantly ties it all back the farm
with stories from her childhood.
Amanda is the Queen of strategy!
Who needs Bloomberg. Maybe she’ll offer subscriptions.
All the Top 5s
Thoughtful and insightful analysis
Original and easy to read
Concise writing style with good flow
Good strategizing
Why You Rocked!
BACK TO CREATIVITY..
Everyone’s blogs were excellent and a lot of work has
gone into them but….
We spend all day tracking the market and the blogs are
starting to look a bit like the financial news we see all day.
Especially when we have to read 25 of them!
step out of your comfort zone and
embrace your inner storyteller!
(next week’s review group, you can thank us later)