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CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group – Economics ● March 2017 (January 2017 Data) Highlights During January, credit unions picked up 338,000 in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at a 12.8% and 7.4% seasonally-adjusted annualized pace, respectively. Firms hired 238,000 workers, nominal consumer spending increased 0.2%, and long-term interest rates decreased 6 basis points. Real GDP increased 1.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.6% for all of 2016, below the 2.6% increase in 2015. At the end of January, CUNA’s monthly estimates reported 5,986 CUs in operation, 10 fewer than one month earlier. Year-over-year, the number of credit unions declined by 244, less than the 267 lost in the 12 months ending in January 2016. Total credit union assets rose 0.7% in January, above the 0.6% gain reported in January 2016. Assets rose 7.5% during the past year due to a 7.4% increase in deposits, a 15.1% increase in borrowings, and a 6.5% increase in capital. The nation’s credit unions increased their loan portfolios by 0.9% in January, more than the 0.4% pace reported in January 2016. Loan balances are up 11.5% during the last 12 months. With loan balances growing faster than savings, credit union liquidity is tightening up as the credit union average loan-to-savings ratio reached 81.2%, up from 78.2% in January 2016. Credit union memberships rose 0.31% in January, up from the 0.19% gain reported in January 2016. Memberships are up 4.8% during the past year due to robust demand for credit, solid job growth and comparatively lower fees and loan interest rates. Credit union loan delinquency rates rose to 0.82% in January from 0.80% in December and are unchanged from one year ago. The credit union capital-to-asset ratio fell to 10.6% in January from 10.7% last January, as asset growth outpaced capital growth. ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE AND INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT During January, the economy added 238,000 jobs, the unemployment rate rose to 4.8%, personal income rose 0.4%, personal spending rose 0.2%, consumer prices rose 0.6%, consumer confidence fell, new home sales rose 3.7%, existing home sales rose 3.3%, auto sales fell 4.4%, home prices rose 0.7%, and the 10year Treasury interest rate decreased 6 basis points to average 2.43%. The Federal Reserve decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to ¾ to 1 percent at their March 15 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. They also raised the interest rate paid on excess reserves to 1% and the rate charged on discount loans to 1.5%. The FOMC statement said the labor market has continued to strengthen and economic activity has continued to expand. If the U.S. economy continues to add 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs each month, the value of the dollar stabilizes, and core inflation measures continue on their upward trajectory, then we believe the Fed will again raise interest rates on June 14 and again at the end of the year. Expect the federal funds interest rate range to reach 1.25 to 1.5 percent by the end of 2017, with a 1 percentage point rate increase each year for 2018 and 2019. So in three short years, we could see credit union 1-year CD rates reaching 3%. Total Credit Union Lending Credit union loan balances rose 0.9% in January, better than the 0.4% pace reported in January 2016, and 11.5% during the last 12 months. Credit union seasonally-adjusted annualized loan growth reached 12.8% in January 2017, the fastest pace since January 2000 (Figure 1). This latest credit cycle boom has not yet reached its apex and looks capable of moving into its fourth year of doubledigit loan growth. Why is this credit boom so sustainable? Three words: faster membership growth. Credit union membership growth during the last three years has exceeded 3%, compared to only 1% annual membership growth in 20042005, the last time loan growth exceeded 10%. Credit unions today can increase loan balances not only with existing members, but also with many new members discovering for the first time all the quality financial products and services of a full- service, modern-day credit union. Figure 1: CU Loan Growth Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 -2% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) Credit union consumer installment credit balances (auto, credit card and other unsecured loans) rose 1.1% in January, similar to the 1.2% pace set in January 2016, due to strong auto lending offsetting falling credit card balances. January’s credit card loan seasonal factors are typically the most negative of the year at -2.38% (Figure 2). Credit union consumer installment credit grew 11.7% during the last year, bucking the downward trend of the total market excluding credit unions, which grew only 5.7% (Figure 3). If guaranteed student loans are factored out, then consumer credit increased only 3.8% for non-credit union lenders. Credit unions now make up 10.2% of the consumer loan market, up from 9.6% a year ago. Figure 3: Figure 2: Credit Card Loan Seasonal Factors Growth in Consumer Installment Credit 5.0% January 2016 Percent 4.0% 16 16 3.13% 14 3.0% 14 CUs 11.7% 12 12 2.0% Total Market Excluding CUs 5.7% 10 1.0% 0.59% 0.60% 0.05% 0.85% 0.71% 8 0.26% Feb Mar Apr May June July -1.0% Aug Sept -0.24% Oct Nov -0.48% Dec 6 4 4 Total Market Excluding CUs & GSLs 3.8% 2 -1.31% -2.0% 8 6 0.0% Jan 10 0 -1.95% 13 12 -2.38% -3.0% 14 06 14 12 15 06 15 12 16 06 2 0 16 12 17 06 17 12 Source: CUNA & NCUA. Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Vehicle Loans Credit union used auto loan balances rose 1.2% in January, faster than the 0.7% pace set in January 2016, and rose 13.5% during the last 12 months. But on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, used auto loan balances rose at a very robust 15.8% in January (Figure 4), a rapid acceleration from just six months ago and the fastest pace since January 1997. Strong consumer fundamentals are driving used auto loan growth despite high used vehicle prices: an improving labor market, low oil prices, faster wage growth, low interest rates, expanding driving-age population, improving construction activity, and better household balance sheets. January’s used auto loan growth is even more remarkable given January’s used auto loan seasonal factors are typically the most negative of the year at -0.73% (Figure 5). Figure 4: Figure 5: Used Auto Loan Seasonal Factors CU Used Loan Growth 1.0% Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Growth Rate 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -2% 0.9% 0.72% 0.8% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.39% 0.4% 0.37% 0.31% 0.3% 0.16% 0.14% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% Jan Feb -0.2% Mar Apr May June July Aug -0.02% Sept Oct Nov -0.11% Dec -0.3% -0.4% -0.36% -0.5% -0.42%-0.44% -0.6% -0.7% -0.8% -0.73% -0.9% -1.0% Source: CUNA & NCUA. Vehicle sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate were 17.6 million in January, 1.6% below the pace set one year earlier. Expect auto sales to exceed 17.8 million in 2017, slightly more than the record 17.5 million pace set in 2016 due to improving household financial health. Auto sales should reach their peak this year as pent-up demand from the Great Recession becomes satiated. Factors supporting auto sales include: attractive discounting, low gas prices, ample access to credit, low debt burdens, strong job growth, and growing hourly earnings. 2 ● Credit Union Trends Report st Real Estate Secured Lending – 1 Mortgages and Other Real Estate Credit union first mortgage originations reached a record $143.2 billion in 2016, a 13% increase over the $126.5 billion in originations in 2015 (Figure 6). Credit unions proceeded to sell off 39.5% of those originations into the secondary market, a higher percentage than the 38.8% in 2015. The stage is set for another strong year of credit union first mortgage growth as rising purchase activity offsets slower refinance business. The contract interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate conventional home mortgage fell to 4.15% in January, from 4.2% in December, but higher than the 3.87% reported in January 2016. The mortgage credit-risk premium (the difference between the 30-year mortgage interest rate and the 10-year Treasury interest rate) averaged 1.81% during 2016, above the 1.71% in 2015 and 1.63% in 2014. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities into new agency mortgage-backed securities until normalization of the fed funds rate is well under way. Expect mortgage interest rates to rise 1.5% over the next few years and reach 5.75% by 2019 as the 10-year Treasury interest rate approaches its long-run equilibrium average of 4%. Home prices rose 0.7% in January from December, according to the Core Logic Home Price Index, and 6.9% year-overyear. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Home Price Index shows home prices rising 6.2% year-over-year while the National Association of Realtors Existing Home Price Index reports home prices rising a remarkable 7.3%. Expect home prices to rise 5-6% in 2017 as the economy adds another 2 million jobs, potential homebuyers jump off the fence and purchase as interest rates rise, and young adults release some of their pent-up demand for housing. Low gas prices are also allowing potential homeowners the ability to increase their pace of savings accumulation for a home down payment. Furthermore, rising rents are tilting the rent-versus-buy calculation more and more in favor of purchasing. Figure 6: Figure 7: Credit Union Liquidity Flows CU Real Estate Lending Activity $100 2015 $126.5 100 80 60 $49.0 $56.6 40 $27.0 $28.6 Billions of Dollars $143.2 120 $ in Billions $77.0 $80 160 140 $92.6 $90 2016 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $10 20 $0 0 -$10 $ Originated $ Sold 1st Mortgages Source data: NCUA 5300 and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics $ Originated $17.7 $20 $8.4 $8.4 $2.0 $8.6 $1.3 -$5.5 -$5.9 -$20 From 1 month ago From 1 year ago HE/Other Mortgage Loans Investments Savings borrowings Capital Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Credit union borrowings grew $17.7 billion in January, (Figure 7), the biggest one-month gain in credit union history, in order to take advantage of a recent riskless arbitrage profit opportunity. In December 2016, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate paid on excess reserves to 0.75%. This created an arbitrage opportunity whereby financial institutions can borrow funds in the short-term interbank credit markets at a lower interest rate, say 0.60%, and deposit the funds into their regional Federal Reserve Bank account earning 0.75%. The principal limiting factor on the amount of credit union borrowings is their quarter-end capital-to-asset ratios. This arbitrage opportunity exists because the government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, cannot deposit their excess liquidity at the Federal Reserve and must therefore sell their excess liquidity in the fed funds market. This keeps the fed funds interest rate below the interest rate on excess reserves. Borrowings as a percent of assets reached 4.8% in January, up from 3.5% in December 2016. This is close to the recordhigh borrowing ratio set in January 2009 during the height of the financial crisis when credit union borrowings made up 4.9% of their balance sheets. With loan growth expected to outpace savings growth in 2016 and liquidity positions already tight, expect credit unions to depend more on borrowings to meet rising loan demand. 3 ● Credit Union Trends Report Savings and Assets Credit union savings balances fell -0.5% in January, below the -0.3% decline reported in January 2016, due to a surge in post-holiday consumer spending. January savings balances have historically declined 0.1% due to recurring seasonal factors. Retail sales grew a strong 0.4% in January, signaling consumers’ willingness to continue pushing the economy forward. Moreover, credit union members may be beginning to redeploy some of the spending power accumulated over the last 30 months due to falling energy prices. The distribution of credit union savings tilted further away from certificates and toward regular shares in 2016 (Figure 8), as credit union members awaited an increase in the fed funds interest rate, and soon thereafter credit union share certificate interest rates. Credit union asset growth rates vary significantly by asset size (Figure 9). Billion-dollar credit unions reported asset growth of 9.2% in 2016, around 6 times faster than the smallest credit unions’ growth rate of 1.6%. Figure 9: Figure 8: Savings Distribution U.S. Credit Unions Credit Union Asset Growth 60 60 55 (by Asset size) 10 Certificates Share Drafts 9 50 MMAs 50 45 IRAs 45 8 40 40 7 35 35 6 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 Percent Regular Shares 9.3 9.2 Year Ending 2015 Q4 55 Year Ending 2016 Q4 7.8 7.1 6.1 6.5 5.4 4.9 5 4.2 4.1 4 3.3 3.2 3 2 1.9 1.6 1 5 0 0 0 < $20 mil $20-$50 $50-$100 89 90 9192 93 94 95 96 9798 99 00 01 02 0304 05 06 07 0809 10 11 12 13 1415 16 17 $100$250 $250$500 $500-$1 bil >$1 bil Capital and Other Key Measures The credit union industry’s net income to average asset ratio, return on assets, rose to 0.76% in 2016, from 0.75% in 2015 (Figure 10), due to billion-dollar credit unions reporting higher income ratios while smaller credit unions reported lower income ratios. A 3 basis point increase in net interest margins, combined with a 3 basis point increase in non-interest income and a 1 basis point decrease in operating expense ratios was more than enough to offset a six basis point increase in loan loss provision expense. Credit unions with greater than $1 billion in assets increased their loan loss provisions by 4 basis points, moving from 0.39% of average assets in 2015 to 0.43% in 2016. Return on equity, ROE, ratios fell for most credit unions in 2016, (Figure 11), due to the aforementioned lower return on asset ratios for smaller credit unions. The ROE ratio is one of the more important credit union metrics because it determines the long-run sustainable asset growth rate. For example, billion-dollar credit unions reported ROE ratios of 8.7%. This indicates their assets can grow 8.7% while maintaining a constant capital-to-asset ratio. Figure 10: Figure 11: Credit Union Return on Equity Net Income (Percent of Average Assets) 120 107 102 100 9.0 104 95 95 8.0 85 84 82 77 2015 8.3 75 76 6.3 75 5.6 6.0 68 64 60 50 4.6 5.0 4.0 3.6 2.6 3.0 31 8.7 2016 7.0 80 Percent Basis Points 80 40 (by Asset size) 10.0 5.7 5.3 4.2 3.3 2.4 2.0 18 20 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 4 ● Credit Union Trends Report 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 < $20 mil $20-$50 $50$100 $100$250 $250$500 $500-$1 bil >$1 bil Credit Unions and Members As of January 2017, CUNA estimates 5,986 credit unions are in operation, down 244 from January 2016. Year-end 2016 NCUA call report data shows 275 credit unions with assets in excess of $1 billion (Figure 12) They held 61% of the credit union system assets and 63.1% of the loans, while making up only 4.7% of all credit unions. This is up from 253 billiondollar credit unions in 2015, holding 58.1% of assets and 60.4% of loans. The median asset size of a U.S. credit union rose to $29.1 million in 2016, an 8.5% increase from the $26.8 million set in 2015. NCUA’s Insurance Report of Activity showed 21 mergers were approved in January 2017 – four due to “poor financial condition,” 13 for “expanded services,” 3 due to “inability to obtain officials” and 1 due to “lack of growth.” The merging credit unions had an average asset size of $54 million. The number of mergers is up from the 16 mergers – two due to “poor financial condition” and 14 for “expanded services” – reported in January 2016 with a merging credit union average asset size of $33 million. We are forecasting the number of credit unions will decline 250 in 2017 (Figure 13). Figure 13: Figure 12: Number of CUs Annual Net Decline in Number of CUs (by Asset size) 3,000 2016 Q4 2,479 2,500 January 2016 – January 2017 Decline = 244 2015 Q4 2,688 Number of CUs 500 2,000 400 1,500 300 Forecast 363 331 1,157 1,096 353 308 266 281 275 282 277 257 234 246 09 10 240 250 200 1,000 745 746 726 733 100 500 336 341 238 236 253 275 $500-$1 bil >$1 bil 0 04 0 < $20 mil $20-$50 $50-$100 $100$250 $250$500 05 06 07 08 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics Credit unions added 338,000 memberships in January, significantly above the 201,000 gain recorded in January 2016, (Figure 14) due to strong credit demand and robust job growth. In January, the economy added 238,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, significantly more than the 172,000 jobs added in January 2016. Rapid job creation is just one sign the job market is tightening quickly and slack is diminishing. Moreover, average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.2% in January and 2.8% over the last year due to a low 4.8% unemployment rate. Total credit union memberships reached 110.0 million in January 2017. In percentage terms, credit union memberships rose 0.34% in January and 4.8% during the last 12 months. With the economy expected to add another 2.2 million jobs in 2017, credit unions should expect membership growth to exceed 3.5% in 2017 (Figure 15). Figure 15: Figure 14: Month-Only Membership Gains Credit Union Membership Growth January 2017 = 110.0 Million Members (000’s) 600 0.201 Million 2016 YTD 500 4.1 452 471 359 3.5 441 3.5 401 350 4.5 4 483 478 400 (Annual Percent Growth) 5 0.338 Million 2017 YTD 389 375 3 338 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 300 2.5 269 2.3 2.2 2 201 200 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 100 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1 0.6 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 0 00 Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics 5 ● Credit Union Trends Report 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates YR/MO 15 01 15 02 15 03 15 04 15 05 15 06 15 07 15 08 15 09 15 10 15 11 15 12 16 01 16 02 16 03 16 04 16 05 16 06 16 07 16 08 16 09 16 10 16 11 16 12 17 01 |------------------ ($ Billions) ---------------------| LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL 732.7 1,157.8 978.4 124.8 734.6 1,179.7 999.5 124.9 739.4 1,181.6 1,004.5 126.3 746.7 1,184.3 1,003.3 126.9 753.7 1,195.2 1,007.8 127.5 763.5 1,191.2 1,006.8 127.8 771.0 1,203.3 1,016.7 128.7 779.5 1,201.2 1,010.7 129.3 787.5 1,203.4 1,012.3 130.5 791.7 1,218.7 1,027.1 131.2 797.4 1,217.8 1,024.0 131.2 804.9 1,227.8 1,036.3 130.9 808.5 1,234.8 1,033.3 132.7 809.2 1,252.6 1,054.8 133.9 817.9 1,264.6 1,071.8 134.6 823.9 1,278.8 1,080.9 135.5 833.3 1,273.3 1,074.6 136.0 843.5 1,278.8 1,079.9 137.7 851.4 1,289.3 1,084.9 138.5 860.7 1,291.5 1,083.6 138.8 867.7 1,301.8 1,099.1 139.9 875.1 1,307.9 1,098.9 140.4 883.3 1,311.8 1,101.1 140.0 892.6 1,317.8 1,115.8 140.0 901.1 1,327.3 1,110.3 141.3 (Millions) MEMBERS 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.5 102.9 103.3 103.5 103.9 104.4 104.6 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.5 106.0 106.4 106.8 107.1 107.6 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.2 109.6 110.0 CREDIT UNIONS 6,497 6,460 6,447 6,432 6,417 6,397 6,359 6,358 6,329 6,264 6,275 6,236 6,230 6,219 6,195 6,135 6,133 6,126 6,124 6,101 6,082 6,046 6,028 5,996 5,986 LOAN / SAVINGS 74.8 73.5 73.6 74.4 74.8 75.8 75.8 77.1 77.8 77.1 77.9 77.7 78.2 76.7 76.3 76.2 77.5 78.1 78.5 79.4 78.9 79.6 80.2 80.0 81.2 CAPITAL/ ASSET RATIO 10.8 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 # OF CUs DECLINE (262) (286) (288) (267) (260) (274) (299) (296) (263) (316) (256) (277) (267) (241) (252) (297) (284) (271) (235) (257) (247) (218) (247) (240) (244) Delinquency Ratio* 0.834% 0.738% 0.683% 0.728% 0.737% 0.740% 0.757% 0.779% 0.776% 0.790% 0.820% 0.809% 0.816% 0.764% 0.706% 0.728% 0.728% 0.745% 0.774% 0.774% 0.769% 0.788% 0.805% 0.802% 0.816% Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year YR/MO 15 01 15 02 15 03 15 04 15 05 15 06 15 07 15 08 15 09 15 10 15 11 15 12 16 01 16 02 16 03 16 04 16 05 16 06 16 07 16 08 16 09 16 10 16 11 16 12 17 01 LOANS 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.6 10.3 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.5 10.8 10.9 11.5 ASSETS 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.9 5.7 5.8 6.6 5.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 7.3 6.6 6.2 7.0 8.0 6.5 7.4 7.1 7.5 8.2 7.3 7.7 7.3 7.5 SAVINGS 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.9 6.1 4.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 6.8 5.5 5.5 6.7 7.7 6.7 7.3 6.7 7.2 8.6 7.0 7.5 7.7 7.5 CAPITAL 8.7 7.9 8.7 8.2 7.2 6.9 7.3 6.5 7.4 6.8 6.1 6.0 6.3 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.6 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.9 6.5 MEMBERS 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 ● Credit Union Trends Report # OF CUs (3.9) (4.2) (4.3) (4.0) (3.9) (4.1) (4.5) (4.5) (4.0) (4.8) (3.9) (4.2) (4.1) (3.7) (3.9) (4.6) (4.4) (4.2) (3.7) (4.0) (3.9) (3.5) (3.9) (3.9) (3.9) Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding ST YR/MO 15 01 15 02 15 03 15 04 15 05 15 06 15 07 15 08 15 09 15 10 15 11 15 12 16 01 16 02 16 03 16 04 16 05 16 06 16 07 16 08 16 09 16 10 16 11 16 12 17 01 TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL LOANS | VEHICLE LOANS | 732.7 89.2 147.4 236.6 734.6 90.2 148.2 238.3 739.4 90.7 149.8 240.5 746.7 92.1 151.4 243.5 753.7 92.7 153.3 246.0 763.5 94.3 155.6 249.9 771.0 95.5 158.0 253.5 779.5 96.6 159.8 256.5 787.5 98.3 161.4 259.8 791.7 99.5 162.8 262.3 797.4 100.1 163.5 263.6 804.9 101.6 164.8 266.4 808.5 102.9 165.9 268.8 809.2 103.4 166.9 270.4 817.9 104.6 169.7 274.3 823.9 105.6 171.9 277.5 833.3 106.9 173.8 280.7 843.5 108.9 176.0 284.9 851.4 110.4 177.7 288.1 860.7 112.2 179.7 291.9 867.7 113.9 181.2 295.1 875.1 115.2 182.6 297.9 883.3 117.1 184.2 301.3 892.6 119.3 186.0 305.3 901.1 121.0 188.3 309.3 UNSEC CREDIT Ex. CC’S CARDS 32.9 46.3 32.5 45.5 32.1 45.5 32.7 45.8 32.9 46.3 33.4 46.6 34.1 47.0 34.6 47.7 34.6 47.8 34.8 47.8 35.2 48.5 35.5 49.6 35.7 49.2 35.1 48.6 35.1 48.7 35.4 48.8 35.7 49.4 36.2 49.9 36.5 50.5 37.0 51.0 37.2 51.1 37.6 51.4 38.2 52.0 38.4 53.1 38.7 52.5 CUCIC 304.5 307.8 307.7 312.3 315.7 322.7 327.2 330.2 333.4 335.5 337.1 341.7 345.9 347.5 350.6 353.9 360.6 357.8 362.8 369.6 373.5 378.8 380.3 382.0 386.2 1 MORT TOTAL 298.9 297.6 303.5 305.4 307.2 312.8 315.0 317.2 322.4 322.7 326.3 329.2 329.3 330.6 334.8 334.9 338.6 342.8 343.7 347.4 351.8 353.1 356.2 363.4 366.4 TOT. OTHR TOTAL MORT REAL ND 2 +HE ESTATE 74.5 373.3 74.1 371.7 73.0 376.5 74.5 379.8 74.4 381.7 73.7 386.5 74.4 389.4 75.1 392.3 74.9 397.3 75.9 398.6 76.2 402.4 75.9 405.1 76.6 405.9 76.4 407.0 75.8 410.6 76.8 411.7 77.2 415.8 76.9 419.7 78.2 421.9 78.6 426.0 77.9 429.6 79.5 432.6 79.7 435.9 79.2 442.6 79.9 446.3 MBLs* 54.9 55.1 55.2 54.6 56.3 54.3 54.4 56.9 56.8 57.5 57.8 58.0 56.7 54.6 62.2 58.2 57.0 65.9 66.7 65.1 64.6 63.7 67.0 68.1 68.5 TOT. OTHR TOTAL MORT REAL ND 2 +HE ESTATE 3.3 7.7 3.3 6.9 2.5 7.6 4.2 8.0 3.9 7.9 2.3 8.1 2.6 8.4 3.1 8.7 2.8 8.6 2.8 8.5 3.0 9.0 3.4 8.9 2.9 8.7 3.1 9.5 3.9 9.1 3.1 8.4 3.7 8.9 4.4 8.6 5.2 8.4 4.7 8.6 3.9 8.1 4.8 8.5 4.6 8.3 4.3 9.2 4.3 10.0 MBLs* 14.4 15.8 16.2 14.3 17.4 13.6 4.9 8.5 8.0 8.8 8.6 7.5 3.3 -1.0 2.6 6.7 1.2 21.5 22.6 14.2 13.6 10.8 16.0 17.3 20.9 * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year ST YR/MO 15 01 15 02 15 03 15 04 15 05 15 06 15 07 15 08 15 09 15 10 15 11 15 12 16 01 16 02 16 03 16 04 16 05 16 06 16 07 16 08 16 09 16 10 16 11 16 12 17 01 TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL LOANS | VEHICLE LOANS | 10.6 21.3 13.0 16.0 10.8 22.4 13.1 16.4 10.8 21.4 13.2 16.1 10.8 21.9 13.0 16.2 10.7 20.5 13.2 15.8 10.7 19.5 13.0 15.4 10.4 18.7 13.3 15.3 10.4 17.5 13.3 14.9 10.7 17.5 13.1 14.7 10.2 16.0 12.6 13.9 10.2 15.3 12.3 13.4 10.4 15.9 12.7 13.9 10.3 15.3 12.5 13.6 10.1 14.7 12.7 13.4 10.6 15.3 13.3 14.0 10.3 14.7 13.5 14.0 10.6 15.4 13.3 14.1 10.5 15.5 13.1 14.0 10.4 15.6 12.5 13.7 10.4 16.1 12.4 13.8 10.2 15.8 12.3 13.6 10.5 15.8 12.2 13.6 10.8 17.0 12.6 14.3 10.9 17.4 12.9 14.6 11.5 17.6 13.5 15.1 7 ● Credit Union Trends Report UNSEC CREDIT Ex. CC’S CARDS 10.5 8.2 9.9 8.0 10.2 7.6 9.7 7.4 9.4 7.3 9.7 6.8 9.4 6.3 10.0 6.6 9.5 6.5 9.2 6.3 9.4 6.3 8.4 6.1 8.3 6.3 8.1 6.8 9.1 6.9 8.5 6.6 8.4 6.8 8.5 7.0 6.9 7.6 7.2 7.0 7.5 6.8 8.2 7.3 8.4 7.2 8.2 6.9 8.4 6.7 CUCIC 13.7 14.9 14.0 13.9 13.0 13.5 13.7 12.8 13.7 12.6 12.0 12.9 13.6 12.9 13.9 13.3 14.2 10.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 12.9 12.8 11.8 11.7 1 MORT TOTAL 8.9 7.8 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.1 9.9 10.5 10.2 10.2 11.1 10.3 9.7 10.2 9.6 9.1 9.5 9.1 9.4 9.2 10.4 11.3 Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Percent Total Loans CU Loan Portfolio $ in Billions $804.9 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 800 $728.9 700 600 500 $474.2 400 $511.1 51.8% 54.1% $587.4 $580.3 $587.0 $615.1 $544.1 $580.5 $660.1 59.6% 61.0% 61.5% 60.3% 59.8% 56.7% 59.3% 57.2% 57.1% 57.5% 58.5% 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015 2016 2017 CIC CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions Percent $ Billions 44 400 380 43.3 43.0 42.9 42.8 43 42.5 42.442.4 42.4 42.3 42.3 42.3 42 $892.6 $901.1 900 CUCIC 43.3 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.9 42.8 42.6 42.4 360 42.2 340 41.9 41.6 41.9 41.8 41.6 320 Other Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions 386 382 379380 374 370 363 361 358 354 346348345 342 337 333336 330 327 323 316 312 308308 305 300 41 280 260 40 240 39 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2016 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 220 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2015 2016 2017 This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S’s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group – Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the “Resource Library” tab Under “Publications” heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Steven Rick 800.356.2644, Ext. 665.5454 [email protected] CUNA Mutual Group – Economics © CUNA Mutual Group, 2017 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. 8 ● Credit Union Trends Report