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March 2012 Summary: A Plan for Clean British Energy What sort of electricity system does the UK need? Friends of the Earth wants an electricity system which is compatible with environmental goals, which keeps the lights on, and is done at reasonable cost. More people should have a stake in our electricity supply, and it should be more decentralised and not dominated by a few large companies. A quarter of our existing power stations will be shut down in the next decade, which presents a huge opportunity to switch to renewable energy instead. Climate Change: The UK’s electricity system needs to be decarbonised as fast as possible. The independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) say this task should be largely completed by 2030, by which time overall emissions from the generation of electricity should be less than 50g CO2/kWh, compared with over 400g CO2/kWh now. Keeping the Lights On: Electricity needs to be available at the right time and right places, with sufficient slack in the system. Cost: We need electricity that is affordable and fair for all people, and for industry/businesses. How much electricity do we need? The amount of electricity the UK will need in future is uncertain. We want to see massive cuts in the amount of energy that we use over the next two decades. But even with major improvements in energy efficiency, it is likely we may need to use more electricity in future to tackle climate change – because both transport and heating will need to be predominately electricity-fuelled in future, rather than by oil and gas as now. Overall, we assume that the UK will use around 470 TWh of electricity in 2030, compared with 360 TWh now. It might well be possible to use less than 470 TWh in 2030, but in this briefing we have used conservative figures. What would be the sources of this electricity? There are many different ways we could generate electricity in future. Friends of the Earth believes that the vast majority of it must be “low-carbon”, so that overall emissions are on average lower than 50 g CO2/kWh, to tackle climate change. Electricity from coal and gas leaves us dependent on imported fossil fuels with volatile prices, has high carbon emissions and there are significant negative environmental impacts that result from mining coal and fracking for shale gas. UK Electricity Mix, 2010 Renewabl es 7% Nuclear 15% Coal 28% Other 4% Gas 46% We don’t believe nuclear – although low-carbon – should have a role, due to its history of massive cost over-runs and unresolved waste problems. New biomass power stations are also ruled out due to sustainability concerns. In 2030 there will be a limited role, for a small amount of gas-fired power. Overall, we believe that 75% of our electricity could come from renewable sources from 2030, as part of a safe, clean, affordable electricity system which keeps the lights on. This is a major shift – 75% of our electricity is currently fossilfuelled. Beyond 2030 we would expect to phase out fossil fuels even further. We have included Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) if it can be shown to work, but experts say we could have higher deployment of renewables and still have a secure supply of electricity. UK Electricity Mix, 2030 Nuclear (residual, not new): 2% Gas with CCS: 11% Wave, tide, solar, hydro, geothermal: 19% Gas: 13% On-shore wind: 13% Offshore wind: 42% Will it keep the lights on? Many people have raised concerns that some renewables are “intermittent”. Of course, other forms of electricity have problems too – some nuclear power stations are off-line for many months at a time. The key is a balanced, diverse mix – so here we are using large amounts of seven different types of renewables, plus CCS and some conventional gas (gas without CCS fitted). DECC believes the future electricity mix must cope with a five day winter period with very little wind or sun and high demand); our renewables mix has back-ups to cope with this: Greater use of interconnectors with Europe, Ireland and Norway (30 GW compared with 4 GW now) Greater use of energy storage (20 GW compared with 4 GW now) as well as smart grids 14 GW of power stations on stand-by, to cope with long windless periods Is this realistic and achievable? Friends of the Earth’s assumptions for renewable energy are modest, with 350 TWh of renewables by 2030. The CCC’s renewable energy review has a 65% renewables scenario with 300 TWh; one of DECC’s pathways has 500 TWh from wind alone. However, our mix undoubtedly has far more renewables than the Government’s deeply unambitious “central” assumptions of 140 TWh by 2030. What about cost? Future electricity prices are uncertain. For the UK to do its part in preventing climate change, and preventing the huge costs that would entail, we need a low-carbon electricity system by 2030. So the major choices are not between fossil fuels and low carbon electricity, but about which types of low-carbon electricity we should use. However, this does not mean a low-carbon future will be more expensive. By 2020, energy efficiency combined with deployment of low-carbon generation will result in energy bills no higher than today’s. While future costs are uncertain, the consensus is that fossil fuel prices will rise, and the cost of renewables will fall sharply, as they have done for solar in recent years. In some places, on-shore wind is already cost-competitive with gas. Of the low carbon technologies, the CCC’s 2011 renewable energy review suggested that it is difficult to identify whether nuclear power, off-shore wind or carbon capture and storage will be cheaper in the future, as it very much depends on the policies the Government deploys. The nuclear industry currently receives billions of pounds of subsidies through capped liabilities in the event of an accident and the Government picking up the tab for dealing with nuclear waste. Subsidies should be used to support the development of new technologies, not to prop up old ones. Nuclear power is a mature technology that has already received decades of subsidy. It should not receive any more. Hydro and on-shore wind are the cheapest renewable technologies. The cost of solar is falling fast, offshore wind is also predicted to fall fast. Marine technologies are currently expensive; we are not assuming major deployment of these before 2030, though we think they have huge potential beyond this point as costs fall. Contact: Simon Bullock, Senior Energy Campaigner [email protected] | 0781 652 9857