Download Electricity Mix 2030 - Friends of the Earth

March 2012
Summary: A Plan for Clean
British Energy
What sort of electricity system does the UK need?
Friends of the Earth wants an electricity system which is compatible with environmental goals, which keeps the
lights on, and is done at reasonable cost. More people should have a stake in our electricity supply, and it should
be more decentralised and not dominated by a few large companies. A quarter of our existing power stations will
be shut down in the next decade, which presents a huge opportunity to switch to renewable energy instead.
Climate Change:
The UK’s electricity system needs to be decarbonised as fast as possible. The independent Committee on
Climate Change (CCC) say this task should be largely completed by 2030, by which time overall emissions
from the generation of electricity should be less than 50g CO2/kWh, compared with over 400g CO2/kWh
now.
Keeping the Lights On:
Electricity needs to be available at the right time and right places, with sufficient slack in the system.
Cost:
We need electricity that is affordable and fair for all people, and for industry/businesses.
How much electricity do we need?
The amount of electricity the UK will need in future is uncertain. We want to see massive cuts in the amount of
energy that we use over the next two decades. But even with major improvements in energy efficiency, it is likely
we may need to use more electricity in future to tackle climate change – because both transport and heating will
need to be predominately electricity-fuelled in future, rather than by oil and gas as now.
Overall, we assume that the UK will use around 470 TWh of electricity in 2030, compared with 360 TWh now. It
might well be possible to use less than 470 TWh in 2030, but in this briefing we have used conservative figures.
What would be the sources of this electricity?
There are many different ways we could generate electricity in future. Friends of the Earth believes that the vast
majority of it must be “low-carbon”, so that overall emissions are on average lower than 50 g CO2/kWh, to tackle
climate change. Electricity from coal and gas leaves us dependent on imported fossil fuels with volatile prices,
has high carbon emissions and there are significant negative environmental impacts that result from mining coal
and fracking for shale gas.
UK Electricity Mix, 2010
Renewabl
es 7%
Nuclear
15%
Coal 28%
Other 4%
Gas 46%
We don’t believe nuclear – although low-carbon –
should have a role, due to its history of massive
cost over-runs and unresolved waste problems.
New biomass power stations are also ruled out
due to sustainability concerns. In 2030 there will
be a limited role, for a small amount of gas-fired
power.
Overall, we believe that 75% of our electricity
could come from renewable sources from 2030,
as part of a safe, clean, affordable electricity
system which keeps the lights on. This is a major
shift – 75% of our electricity is currently fossilfuelled. Beyond 2030 we would expect to phase
out fossil fuels even further. We have included
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) if it can be
shown to work, but experts say we could have
higher deployment of renewables and still have a
secure supply of electricity.
UK Electricity Mix, 2030
Nuclear (residual,
not new): 2%
Gas with CCS:
11%
Wave, tide, solar,
hydro, geothermal:
19%
Gas:
13%
On-shore wind:
13%
Offshore wind: 42%
Will it keep the lights on?
Many people have raised concerns that some renewables are “intermittent”. Of course, other forms of electricity
have problems too – some nuclear power stations are off-line for many months at a time. The key is a balanced,
diverse mix – so here we are using large amounts of seven different types of renewables, plus CCS and some
conventional gas (gas without CCS fitted). DECC believes the future electricity mix must cope with a five day
winter period with very little wind or sun and high demand); our renewables mix has back-ups to cope with this:
Greater use of interconnectors with Europe, Ireland and Norway (30 GW compared with 4 GW now)
Greater use of energy storage (20 GW compared with 4 GW now) as well as smart grids
14 GW of power stations on stand-by, to cope with long windless periods
Is this realistic and achievable?
Friends of the Earth’s assumptions for renewable energy are modest, with 350 TWh of renewables by 2030. The
CCC’s renewable energy review has a 65% renewables scenario with 300 TWh; one of DECC’s pathways has
500 TWh from wind alone. However, our mix undoubtedly has far more renewables than the Government’s
deeply unambitious “central” assumptions of 140 TWh by 2030.
What about cost?
Future electricity prices are uncertain. For the UK to do its part in preventing climate change, and preventing the
huge costs that would entail, we need a low-carbon electricity system by 2030. So the major choices are not
between fossil fuels and low carbon electricity, but about which types of low-carbon electricity we should use.
However, this does not mean a low-carbon future will be more expensive. By 2020, energy efficiency combined
with deployment of low-carbon generation will result in energy bills no higher than today’s. While future costs are
uncertain, the consensus is that fossil fuel prices will rise, and the cost of renewables will fall sharply, as they
have done for solar in recent years. In some places, on-shore wind is already cost-competitive with gas.
Of the low carbon technologies, the CCC’s 2011 renewable energy review suggested that it is difficult to identify
whether nuclear power, off-shore wind or carbon capture and storage will be cheaper in the future, as it very
much depends on the policies the Government deploys. The nuclear industry currently receives billions of
pounds of subsidies through capped liabilities in the event of an accident and the Government picking up the tab
for dealing with nuclear waste. Subsidies should be used to support the development of new technologies, not to
prop up old ones. Nuclear power is a mature technology that has already received decades of subsidy. It should
not receive any more.
Hydro and on-shore wind are the cheapest renewable technologies. The cost of solar is falling fast, offshore
wind is also predicted to fall fast. Marine technologies are currently expensive; we are not assuming major
deployment of these before 2030, though we think they have huge potential beyond this point as costs fall.
Contact: Simon Bullock, Senior Energy Campaigner [email protected] | 0781 652 9857