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Europe-Russia Energy Relations: Security in Diversity? Dr. Andrew Monaghan, Research Consultant, NATO Defence College Introduction • • • • Russia in European thinking Russia as “the problem” Diversity as the answer? Conclusions • European thinking reactive • Russia often taken out of context strategically Russia in European Thinking • Russia is the gravitational focus for European thinking • Evolution in thought – Politically unreliable • Oct 2005, Jan 2006, Dec/Jan 2007 – Sustainability • Gas deficit – Liberal/monopoly • Bureaucratic improvement/political deterioration • Energy security dilemma Russia as “the problem” • Energy “Superpower”? – Political idea without a strategy • Unclear “national interests” • Gazprom strategy ≠ Russian strategy – Incoherence & Competition • Gazprom vs. Rosneft; Gazprom vs. State • Shady “re-nationalisation” – Gas deficit • Domestic consumption/foreign contracts Responses • Reactive • Veto, ECT ratification, diversification NATO • Veto, ECT – Cohesion of members – Negotiating against Russia’s “natural advantages” Energy Insecurity Responses • Diversify? – Already diverse – energy type, source, route – Complicates policy making & consensus • To where? – Iran? Nigeria • Energy Security Dilemma – Sources & Markets Energy Insecurity Responses • NATO – January 2006 (USA/Ukraine) – September 2006 Seminar – Riga Summit • Strategic Concept • Military security: NATO’s energy supply • Shortage of other options in answer to perceived threat – EU & IEA not responsive & supportive enough – Bring in US diplomatic weight NATO & energy security • US & Turkey involvement • Political links to the wider world: PfP & ICI, NRC – IPAP: Azerbaijan • Military dimension – Infrastructure security – Naval protection – Civil Defence & emergency management NATO & Energy Insecurity • The “whole chain” BUT: • Does not address the key issues: investment • Military alliance involvement creates concerns abroad – Political dimension of energy security: confidence • A global thematic rather than regional diplomatic role Conclusions • Energy security is a primarily POLITICAL issue – is enough resource base – Tension between existing and reliable resources • Responses so far REACTIVE & undermining energy security – Key responses are domestic – efficiency & investment • NATO has a global energy security role, albeit focused & explicitly addressed • Consumer, Producer & Transit often the same; NATO understands “the chain”