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MSBC 5060 Chapter 3 Financial Statement Analysis and Financial Models 1 Chapter Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Financial Statements Analysis Ratio Analysis The Du Pont Identity Financial Models External Financing and Growth Some Caveats 2 Key Concepts and Skills • Know how to standardize financial statements for comparison purposes • Know how to compute and interpret important financial ratios • Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach • Understand how capital structure and dividend policies affect a firm’s ability to grow • Relate corporate loan criteria to personal loan criteria 3 Common-Size Financial Statements The basic idea: Divide Everything on the page by the main number on the page • Balance Sheet: – The main number is Total Assets • which equals Liabilities plus Equity – So all values are reported as a percentage of Total Assets • Income Statement – The largest number is Sales – So all values are reported as a percentage of Sales (also called Total Revenue) 4 Common-Size Balance Sheet (Tables 3.1 and 3.2) Prufrock corporation 5 Common-Size Income Statement (Tables 3.4 and 3.5) Some other stuff we will need later for the Ratio Analyses: • EBIT = NI + Int Exp + Tax Exp = 363 + 141 + 187 = $691 • EBITDA = NI + Int Exp + Tax Exp + Dep Exp = 691 + 276 = $967 6 Review of Earnings numbers (Table 3.3 page 47) 7 Ratio Analysis Instead of values, show as fractions of other values (ratios) Ratio Categories: 1. Short-Term Solvency – Firm’s ability to pay current bills 2. Long-Term Solvency – Firm’s ability to meet LT debt obligations 3. Asset Management – aka Turnover Ratios (Efficiency measures) 4. Profitability Ratios 5. Market Value Ratios 8 Some things to think about as we look at ratios: 1. Definition of the Ratio – How is it computed? Is it always the same? (It will be for us) – Use the Beginning, Ending or Average B-S value? 2. What is the unit of Measure? – dollars, years, dollars per dollars of assets… 3. What are HIGH values? What are LOW values? – – – – High or low for the company over time for the industry for the sector for all companies… 9 Category 1: Short-Term Solvency First Some Notation: • Current Assets = CA • Current Liabilities = CL • Total Assets = TA = A • Total Liabilities = TL = L = Total Debt = TD = Debt =D • Total Equity = TE = E [3.1] Current Ratio = CA/CL = 708/540 = 1.31 [3.2] Quick Ratio = (CA – Inv)/CL = (708 – 442)/540 = 0.53 • Inventory is the least liquid current asset [3.3] Cash Ratio = Cash/CL = 98/540 = 0.18 • Cash is the most liquid current asset 10 Review Question Current Assets 2013 2014 Cash $84 $98 A/R $165 $188 Inventory $393 $422 $642 $708 Total Current Liabilities 2013 2014 A/P $312 $344 Notes Payable $231 $196 $543 $540 Total Did the firm’s short-term solvency improve or deteriorate? Ratio Current Ratio = CA/CL Quick Ratio = (CA – Inv)/CL Cash ratio = Cash/CL 2013 2014 642/543 = 1.18 708/540 = 1.31 (642-393)/543 = 0.46 (708-442)/540 = 0.53 84/543 = 0.15 98/540 = 0.18 11 Category 2: Long-Term Solvency and Leverage Balance Sheet: [3.4] Total Debt Ratio = Debt to Assets = D/A = 997/3,588 = 0.28 Equity to Assets = E/A = 2,591/3,588 = 0.72 [3.5] Debt to Equity = D/E = 997/2,591 = 0.38 = 0.28/0.72 = 0.39 ≈ 0.38 [3.6] Equity Multiplier (EM) = A/E = 3,588/2,591 = 1.38 = 1/(E/A) = 1/0.72 = 1.38 = 1 + D/E = 1 + 0.38 = 1.38 Note: EM = A/E = (D + E)/E = E/E + D/E = 1 + D/E • All these are also called Financial Leverage Measures • In general, the more levered, the less likely a firm is to repay its debt 12 Category 2: Long-Term Solvency (Continued) Coverage Ratios: Income Statement: [3.7] Times Interest Earned (TIE) = EBIT/In Exp = 691/141 = 4.9 times [3.8] Cash Coverage = EBITDA/In Exp = 967/141 = 6.9 times 13 Review Question Current Assets 2013 2014 Liab. and Equity 2013 2014 ST Assets $100 $150 ST Liabilities $300 $300 LT Assets $900 $1,050 LT Liabilities $500 $700 Equity $200 $200 Did the firm’s Long-term solvency improve or deteriorate? Ratio Debt to Assets 2013 2014 $800/$1,000 = 0.80 $1,000/$1,200 = 0.83 Debt to Equity $800/$200 = 4 $1,000/$200 = 5 Equity Multiplier = A/E $1,000/200 = 5 $1,200/200 = 6 • The firm borrowed $200 and bought new assets • LT solvency deteriorated since Leverage increased 14 Category 3: Asset Management or Efficiency [3.9] Inventory Turnover = COGS/Inventory = 1,344/422 = 3.2 times • This is the value of inventory sold during the year (COGS) divided by the amount of inventory on hand at the end of the year • So during the year, the firm sold 3.2 times amount of inventory on hand at year’s end [3.10] Days’ Sales in Inventory = 365/Inventory Turnover = 365/3.2 = 114 days • Since the firm sold the current amount of inventory 3.2 times over the last year, the current inventory will be sold in 1/3.2 years or 114 days 15 Cat 3: Asset Management or Efficiency (Continued) [3.11] Receivables Turnover = Sales/(A/R) = 2,311/188 = 12.3 times • Really should be “Credit Sales” not total Sales. We don’t have that. • Would be number of times in the year credit was extended and then collected • Often Average A/R is used as opposed to Ending A/R [3.12] Days’ Sales in Receivables = 365/Receivables Turnover = 365/12.3 = 30 days • Credit was extended and collected 12.3 times over the last year or 1/12.3 years or 30 days 16 Cat 3: Asset Management or Efficiency (Continued) [3.13] Asset Turnover = Sales/Assets = 2,311/3,588 = 0.64 • For each dollar of assets, the firm generated $0.64 in sales • This is the amount of sales the firm was able to generate from asset in place Capital Intensity = Assets/Sales = 3,588/2,311 = 1.56 • It takes $1.56 in Assets to generate $1 in Sales • A way to think about this ratio: • If Sales are going to increase by 25% • Then assets must also increase by 25% • Unless the firm can somehow generate more sales from each unit of assets • Which means increase Asset Turnover or lower Capital Intensity • Which means an increase in operating efficiency 17 Review Question Account Sales $10,000 COGS $5,000 Inventory $1,000 A/R Assets $500 Calculate: (1) Inventory Turnover (IT) (2) Days’ Sales in Inventory (DSI) (3) Asset Turnover (AT) $25,000 • IT = Inv sold/Inv on hand IT = COGS/Inv = $5,000/$1,000 = 5 • DSI = Days per year/ # of times Inv turned in per year DSI = 365/IT = 365/5 = 73 • AT = Amount sold/Amount “employed” to generate sales AT = Sales/Assets = $10,000/$25,000 = 0.4 18 Category 4: Profitability (Really Efficiency) [3.14] Profit Margin (PM) PM = NI/Sales = 363/2,311 = 15.7% • • • • Income Statement “Bottom Line” divided “Top Line” Accounting Profit per Dollar of Sales Think of PM as a measure of Efficiency not Profitability Measures the expenses needed to generate sales (Sales – Expenses = NI) [3.15] Return on Asset (ROA) ROA= NI/Assets = 363/3,588 = 10% • This is the (accounting) profit per unit of Assets • Compare with Asset Turnover Ratio (AT) = Sales/Assets = 2,311/3,588 = 0.64 • Sales are 64% of Assets and Profits are 10% of Assets • PM = ROA/AT = 0.10/0.64 = 15.7% • Think of ROA as a measure of Efficiency not Profitability • Think of assets as some number of trucks. How much profit is generated from these trucks? The more you generate, the more efficient the business. • It is a function of sales (more is better) and expenses (less is better) 19 Category 4: Profitability [3.16] Return on Equity (ROE) ROE = NI/Equity = 363/2,591 = 14% • • • • • This measures the (accounting) profit per unit of Equity ROE = ROA x EM = NI/Assets x Assets/Equity So Profit (ROE) is a function of Efficiency (ROA) and Leverage (EM) So increase profit by increasing efficiency or increasing leverage Remember Efficiency has two components: Increasing Sales and Decreasing Expenses • So Increase Efficiency by Increasing Sales or Decreasing Expenses 20 Important Relationship: ROE = NI/Equity (Profitability) ROA = NI/Assets (Efficiency) EM = Assets/Equity (Leverage) Profitability = Efficiency X Leverage ROE = ROA X EM NI/Equity = NI/Assets X Assets/Equity 21 Category 5: Market Value Measures But First: # of Shares Outstanding is 33m and Price is $88 per share [3.17] Earnings per Share (EPS) = NI/Shares = $363/33 = $11/Share • So each owners’ share earned $11 [3.18] Price-Earnings Ratio (PE or P/E) = Price/EPS = $88/$11 = 8 times • So pay $8 for $1 of earnings • PE (and EPS) can be compared across different stocks • Why pay more for a dollar of earnings? [3.19] Market-to-Book = Price per Share/Book Val of Equity per Share • • • • Book Value of Equity per Share = $2,591/33 = $78.52 Market-to-Book = $88/$78.52 = 1.12 Sometimes called Price-to-Book Some contexts use Book-to-Market (BM), the inverse 22 Category 5: Market Value Measures [3.20] Enterprise Value (EV) = Mkt Cap + Mkt Val Debt – Cash = Shares x Price + Notes + LTD – Cash = 33 m x $88 + $196 + $457 – $98 = $3,465 • Note the use of book value of debt instead if market value of debt. This is common since they are often very close. • This is cost to acquire all claims on the firm’s assets [3.21] Enterprise Value Multiple = EV/EBITDA = $3,465/$967 = 3.6 times • The EV Multiple is especially useful because it allows comparison across firms even if there are differences in capital structure. • Since EBITDA is before interest expense, taxes, or capital spending (depreciation) 23 Review Question Price Share (6/22 Close) EPS (ttm) Book Val of Equity (mrq) # of Shares (mrq) Nike (NKE) $106.79 $3.50 $12,368 m 860 m Wal-Mart (WMT) $72.79 $4.98 $76,574 m Stock Stock PE Ratio NKE $106.79/$3.50 = 30.51 WMT Book Val of Equity Per share 3,227 m Market-to-Book $12,368/860 = $14.38 $106.79/$14.38 = 7.43 $72.79/$4.98 = 14.62 $76,574/3,227 = $23.73 $72.79/$23.73 = 4.50 • NKE has a greater PE and Market-to-Book. • So “the market” is paying more for a dollar of NKE’s earnings and more for a dollar of its equity. • Why? 24 One More Efficiency Measure… EBITDA Margin = EBITDA/Sales = $967/$2,311 = 41.8% Compare EBITDA Margin to Profit Margin: Profit Margin (PM) = NI/Sales = $363/$2,311 = 15.7% • What is the difference in the numerators? EDITDA – Dep – Amort – Int Exp – Taxes = NI 25 Recap: Table 3.6 page 56 Remember: Think of ROA and PM as Efficiency Ratios, not Profitability Ratios 26 Problems with Ratio Analysis • No good way to know which ratios are most important • Benchmarking is difficult for diversified firms • Globalization and international competition makes comparison more difficult because of differences in accounting regulations • Firms use varying accounting procedures • Firms have different fiscal years • Extraordinary, or one-time, events can confuse the results 27 DuPont Identity • A method of calculating the contribution of different parts to overall profitability • Also called Profitability decomposition or ROE Decomposition • Profitability is measured by ROE = NI/E The Du Pont Identity: [3.22] ROE = AT x PM x EM NI/E = Sales/A x NI/Sales x A/E Profit = Sales Efficiency x Expense Efficiency x Leverage 28 DuPont Analysis (Continued) First: Decompose Profitability (ROE) into broad measures of Efficiency (ROA) and Leverage (EM) • Efficiency ROA = NI/A • Leverage EM = A/E • ROE = ROA x EM NI/E = NI/A x A/E Profit = Efficiency X Leverage 29 DuPont Analysis (continued) Second: Decompose Efficiency into Sales generated from Assets (AT) and Expenses needed to generate the sales (PM) • Sales Generated from Assets (Asset Turnover) AT = Sales/A • Earnings kept from each dollar of sales PM = NI/Sales NI/A = Sales/A x NI/Sales ROA = AT x PM Total Efficiency is a function of Sales and Expenses 30 DuPont Analysis (continued) Third: Decompose AT (Sales/A) into different types of Sales • • • Manufactured Products, Servicing, Consulting… AT Product Sales/A, Servicing/A, Consulting/A, What break-down categories are appropriate? Depends on the company and its business Fourth: Decompose PM (NI/Sales) into different expenses • • COGS/Sales, SG&A/Sales, Int Exp/Sales, Tax Exp/Sales, Dep Exp/Sales PM = NI/Sales = (Sales – Expenses)/Sales 31 DuPont Analysis (continued) Equip Sales/A EM = A/E (Leverage) ROE = NI/E AT = Sales/A (Profit) (Revenues) Servicing/A Consulting/A ROA = NI/A (Efficiency) PM = NI/Sales COGS/Sales (Expenses) SG&A/Sales Int Exp/Sales Tax Exp/Sales Dep Exp/Sales 32 Review Question Account Firm 1 Firm 2 Assets $10,000 $20,000 Equity $5,000 $5,000 NI $1,000 $2,000 Sales $5,000 $8,000 For both firms calculate: (1) ROE = NI/E (2) ROA = NI/A (3) EM = A/E (4) AT = Sales/A (5) PM = NI/Sales Why is Firm 2 more profitable? Ratio Firm 1 Firm 2 ROE = NI/E 0.2 0.4 ROA = NI/A 0.1 0.1 EM = A/E 2.0 4.0 AT = Sales/A 0.5 0.5 PM = NI/Sales 0.2 0.2 • ROE greater for Firm 2 because EM is bigger. • EM measures leverage 33 Financing Growth • For a firm to Grow, Assets must grow (almost by definition) 1. 2. External Growth: Sell stocks or bonds (talk about this later) Internal Growth: Retain Earnings (talk about this now) • Internally Financed Growth is a function of: 1. 2. • The Earnings (aka NI) as a percentage of Assets The Earnings Retained by the business as a percentage of NI So: How much did you make and how much did you keep? First some definitions: [3.23] Dividend Payout Ratio = Div/NI = 121/363 = 33% = 1/3 • Payout 1/3 of Accounting Profits Retention Ratio (aka Plowback Ratio) = RE/NI = 242/363 = 2/3 • Also equal to 1 - Div/NI • Often denoted as “b” • Note: The text Switches from Prufrock to Rosengarten for these ratios. • I’ll stay with Prufrock for the lecture 34 External Financing and Growth • Let b = RE/NI • ROA = NI/A (Plowback Ratio) (Accounting profits per unit of assets) [3.25] Internal Growth = (ROA x b)/(1 – ROA x b) For the example company • ROA = 363/3,588 = 10.12% and b = 242/262 = 0.6667 – (How many digits after the decimal point? It depends.) • Internal Growth = (0.1012 x 0.6667)/(1 – 0.1012 x 0.6667) = 0.0724 = 7.24% • If the company plows back 2/3 of NI (which increases assets) and ROA is 10.12%, then the firm grows at 7.24% (without external financing). – Note that growth can be improved if ROA is improved – How can ROA be improved? Increase Sales or Decrease Expenses – Which parts of sales or expenses are best suited for improvement? How do you breakdown sales and expenses into different categories? 35 Internal and Sustainable Growth (continued) • Note that retaining earnings increases… • Retained Earnings (the Equity account on the B-S) – But this does not increase Debt (liabilities) – So over time, the D/E ratio decreases • So to maintain the same D/E ratio, the firm must sell some debt This leads to the Sustainable Growth Rate: [3.26] Sustainable Growth = (ROE x b)/(1 – ROE x b) • ROE = 14.01% • Sustainable Growth = (0.1401 x 0.6667)/(1 – 0.1401 x 0.6667) = 0.1030 = 10.30% • Internal Growth Rate = 7.24% • Sustainable Growth = 10.30% – Sustainable growth implies borrowing to maintain the same D/E ration – Borrowing means increasing leverage 36 Internal and Sustainable Growth (continued) • So Growth is determined by four things: 1. Sales generated from Assets in place – Assets Use Efficiency: AT = Sales/Assets 2. NI (aka Earnings) kept from those sales – Operating Efficiency: PM = NI/Sales = (Sales – Expenses)/Sales 3. Portion of NI Retained – Plowback Ratio: b = RE/NI 4. Financing Policy – – How much more is borrowed (relative to earnings retained) Leverage: Equity Multiplier (EM) = A/E 37 Recap: Table 3.16 38 A note about SGR and IGR Calculations If we use Ending Equity or Assets (at Time 1): • SGR = (ROE1 x b)/(1 – ROE1 x b) • IGR = (ROA1 x b)/(1 – ROA1 x b) If we use Beginning Equity or Assets (at Time 0): • SGR = ROE0 x b • IGR = ROA0 x b See “SGR and IGR Begin or End Values.xlsx” 39 How to use Ratio Analysis: • Compare to same firm over time • Compare to firms within industry – SIC codes – North American Industry Classification System – NAICS or “Nakes” • But use your own common sense and knowledge about the company or industry 40 Financing Growth • Given a Sales Growth Forecast • How much new money will the firm need to raise to finance the forecast growth? • The text uses the Rosengarten example to develop the formula to calculate External Financing Needed (EFN) EFN is: • The money that needs to be raised (through new equity or new borrowing) if sales increase by a certain percent • Assuming no other relationships or ratios change – A simplifying assumption – So no change in EM, or ROA • Which means no change in AT (or its inverse CIR) or PM – No change in asset or liability “mix” 41 Financing Growth • For a given change in sales (sales growth) • With other relationships fixed… – Capital Intensity Ratio (Assets/Sales) is fixed • This is “assets as a percentage of sales” • So if sales increase, assets must increase proportionately • Also the mix of assets does not change – A/P as a percentage of sales is fixed • This is the only liability ratio we assume fixed • We’ll see why in a minute • This is why we consider A/P a “Spontaneous Liability” 42 Financing Growth • How much more in assets are needed to generate this forecast sales increase? • How much more in liabilities will automatically result from the increase in sales? • How much more earnings will the firm retain from the increase in sales? 43 The EFN formula: 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 [3.24] 𝐸𝐹𝑁 = × ∆𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑆𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑢𝑠 𝐿𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 − × ∆𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 − PM × 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 × 1 − 𝑑 Where: • Spontaneous Liabilities = liabilities that automatically result from increased sales (in this case it is only A/P) • d = the div payout ratio = Divs/NI • (1 – d) = the Retention Ratio But we will look at the formula slightly differently 44 EFN EFN = ΔSales x Capital Intensity Ratio - ΔSales x Spontaneous Liabilities/Sales - Retention Ratio x Profit Margin x Projected Sales • Can rewrite it this way: EFN = ΔSales x Assets/Sales - ΔSales x Accts Payable/Sales - Retention Ratio x NI/Sales x Projected Sales • Or in words: EFN = Assets Needed to Generate New Sales - Liabilities Automatically Created by New Sales - Increase Retained Earnings from New Sales 45 EFN Example from Text (Page 63) Text Example: Sales = $1,000, Sales Growth = 25% ΔSales = $250 Assets = $3,000 Cap Intensity Ratio = $3,000/$1,000 = 3.00 A/P = $300 (A/P)/Sales = $300/$1,000 = 0.30 NI = $132 PM = NI/Sales = $132/$1,000 = 0.132 Divs = $44 Retention Ratio = 1 - $44/$132 = 0.6667 EFN = ΔSales x Capital Intensity Ratio - ΔSales x Spontaneous Liabilities/Sales - Retention Ratio x Profit Margin x Projected Sales • • • ΔSales x Capital Intensity Ratio = $250 x 3.00 = $750 (in new assets) ΔSales x Spontaneous Liabilities/Sales = $250 x 0.30 = $75 (in new A/P) Retention Ratio x PM x Proj Sales = 0.67 x 0.132 x $1,250 = $110 (in new RE) EFN = $750 - $75 - $110 = $565 • The firm needs to $565 in External Financing to pay for the $750 in new assets needed to finance 25% sales growth 46 Recap: • Increase Sales by 25% or $250? Need $750 in new Assets – Why? Because Cap Intensity Ratio = Assets/Sales = 3.00 – $250 in new sales requires 3.00 x $250 = $750 in assets • If Sales increases by $250 A/P will increase by $75 – Why? Because (A/P)/Sales is fixed at = 30% – So $250 in new sales requires 0.30 x $250 = $75 in new A/P • If Sales increases to $1,250 RE will be $110 – Why? Because PM = NI/Sales = 13.20% so NI will be $165 – And the firm keeps 66.66% of NI so RE = 0.6667 x $165 = $110 So the firm needs to finance $750 in new Assets • $75 will be finance though new A/P • $110 will be financed though RE • $565 will be finance externally (EFN) 47 So the firm will need to raise $565 to finance forecast growth – It can’t do it without External Financing – How do we know? Because EFN > 0 – But just to be sure, check the IGR for Rosengarten: Internal Growth Rate = (ROA x b)/(1 – ROA x b) • ROA = NI/Assets = $132/$3,000 = 0.044 • b = Retention Ratio = 1 - $44/$132 = 0.6667 • Internal Growth = (ROA x b)/(1 – ROA x b) = (0.044 x 0.6667)/(1 – 0.044 x 0.6667) = 0.0302 = 3.02% • Rosengarten can only grow at 3.02% if it uses only internal financing (RE). • So it must sell $565 of stocks and bonds in order to finance 25% sales growth • But how much of the $565 should be stock and how much should be bonds? • Easy if we assume constant EM (leverage) • We’ll get to that when we cover capital structure in Chapter 14 48 Some Other Return Measures ROI = Return on Investment = Gain / Cost = (Value – Cost)/Cost = (P1 – P0)/P0 = P1/P0 - 1 • So an “investment measure”, not really a corporate profitability measure ROC = Return on Capital = EBIT( 1 – T)/(Book Value of Debt + Book Value of Equity – Cash) ROIC = Return on Invested Capital = EBIT( 1 – T)/(Book Value of Debt + Book Value of Equity) Some Notation: • NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes = EBIT(1 – T) • K = Invested Capital = Book Value of Debt + Book Value of Equity ROC = NOPAT/(K – Cash) ROIC = NOPAT/K 49 One More We’ll Revisit Later… EVA = (Return Earned on Invested Capital) - (Cost of Invested Capital) = (r x K) – (c x K) = (r – c) x K = (NOPAT/K – c) x K = NOPAT – c x K Where: r = NOPAT/K = ROIC = EBIT( 1 – T)/(Book Value of Debt + Book Value of Equity) c = WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital 50 What’s Next? • Time Value of Money (TVM) – Present Value – Future Value • Interest Rate Conventions – APR – EAR • Payment (and Repayment) Conventions – Annuities – Perpetuates – Amortization… 51