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Author: ALDON JASPER
TOPIC:
Literature Review
Due submitted: 17th November 2013
1. INTRODUCTION
There is no perfect definition of energy security. It may however be defined as the uninterrupted
availability of energy sources at an affordable price to markets (IEA 2013). Energy and the
ability to secure this resource have been identified at the heart of economic development in every
country since it is central to everyday living (Pascual and Elkind 2010). In recent years storms,
floods and industrial action have threaten energy supplies. There have also been power failures
in several countries including Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, and parts of the US, Canada,
Australia and India caused by system or human error, and significant disruptions to gas flow
(DECC, 2012; Bethel 2012, History.com, 2013, Guyana Times, 2013, ABC News, 2013). The
advent of the Industrial Revolution marked a major turning point in the Earth’s ecology and
human relations with the environment further making the need for reliable sources of energy all
the more pressing (Ecology global network, 2008). As humans increase in efficaciousness their
endeavors have also introduced many new challenges. Among these is a continued need for
energy security. The need to increase energy security was the main objective underpinning the
establishment of the International Energy Agency in 1974 (IEA 2013). The IEA was created to
establish effective mechanisms for the implementation of policies across a broad spectrum of
energy issues: mechanisms that were workable and reliable, and could be implemented on a cooperative basis with particular emphasis on oil security (IEA 2013). The issues regarding energy
security, however, are complex and not confined to the provision of oil. It is a source of wealth
and much competition, the basis of political controversy and technological innovation and at the
core of an epochal challenge to our environment (Pascual and Elkind 2010). Van Vactor (2010)
has also stated that concerns regarding energy security are often expressed in terms of national
defence, sovereign rights and political extortion. This paper however focuses on the interplay of
energy, climate change and national security and examines each of these themes to ascertain the
extent to which they impact on or is central to the discussion regarding energy security, with
particular emphasis on Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
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2. DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS BY SMALL ISLANDS
Small islands, such as those in the Caribbean, rely heavily on imported fossil fuels for the
majority of their energy use, particularly in the transport and electricity production sectors
(Jensen, 2000b and MoE, 2010b). In these Islands the ratio of imported petroleum to total
imports can be as high as 30% GDP (Jafer, 2000). This poses a significant challenge to their
development (Atkins et al., 2000; Briguglio, 2004 and Briguglio et al., 2008). According to the
Global Energy Network Institute (2010), oil imports consume the largest percentage of Small
Island Developing States’ gross national income (GNI) and foreign exchange earnings.
According to Jensen (2000b) and GENI (2010), energy often accounts for more than 12 per cent
of all imports in Small Island Developing States and in the Caribbean “petroleum imports are
responsible for more than 75 per cent of primary energy demand.” This in part has led to the
elevated cost of electricity production on these islands (Jensen, 2000a). Jensen (2000b) also
contended that, when compared to a nation such as Denmark, Small Island Developing States’
average production cost per kWh at diesel power stations could be as much as three to four times
higher. In addition, the production cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for diesel power in the
Caribbean can be as much as 100% higher in the Pacific (Jensen, 2000a). As such, the
development and application of innovative renewable energy technologies in these Island States
becomes extremely important if they are to secure economic and political independence and
facilitate development (Jafer, 2000 and GENI, 2010). The issue of energy security is closely
related to national security. This is so since the dependence of SIDS on foreign energy supplies
increases their vulnerability since they are unable to insulate themselves from some of the
vicissitudes in the marketplace which puts them at risk and therefore results in a threat to their
very security (Pascual and Elkind, 2010: 4).
3. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES IN SMALL ISLANDS
“The extraction and processing of non-renewable resources has provided the basis for the three
industrial revolutions that have led to the modern economies of the developed world” (Reed,
2002). Small Island Developing States seek to follow a path to development similar to counties
in the Global North however this has proven to be a challenge due to their high dependence on
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fossil fuels that makes their socio-economic circumstance precarious (Pantin, 2003; Naudé, et al.,
2010 and UN, 2010). This is more so now as they have committed to adopting “cleaner”
technologies (COP16, 2010). The Caribbean population for example view their environment as a
commodity from which they can derive economic benefit and therefore the extraction of
nonrenewable resources to meet their energy demand seems only natural (Pantin, 2003).
According to Mc Gregor (2003), the pursuit of economic development by Caribbean peoples in
areas such as agriculture, extraction (e.g. oil and gas) and tourism is seen as an indication of how
they perceive their environment. Further, Lowenthal (1961) has identified both the physical and
social circumstances within the region such as the small size of individual islands, dense
population and their colonial history as being responsible for the dominance of these economic
activities. This has resulted in extensive extraction of natural resources and the strong tendency
to import goods and services that further result in the degradation to environmental quality and
ecology (Mc Gregor, 2003). Additionally, events such as the U.S. 9/11 terror attack, the removal
of preferential treatment in the banana and sugar industry, the Iraq war and the global financial
crisis are further evidence of the vulnerability of their economies to internal and external shocks
(Ahmed, 2001; Naudé, et al., 2010 and Binger, 2011). Hence, SIDS continue to find it difficult
to identify sustainable ways to grow their economies which makes their continued reliance on the
importation of fossil fuel unsustainable (Binger, 2011).
4. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE THREAT TO SECURITY
Human-induced climate change and its projected threats to livelihoods, cultures, economies,
security and governance of nations make it necessary to adapt rapidly across many parts of
society (Leith, 2010; Pascual and Elkind, 2010). It is now arguably the greatest challenge facing
the human race and poses profound risk to the natural systems that sustain life on Earth.
Indisputable evidence suggests that climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in the
most vulnerable tropical regions such as the Caribbean (IPCC 2007). Caribbean Islands are
economically, socially and physically vulnerable by their very nature and climate change is
expected to exacerbate existing social, environmental and economic vulnerabilities and create
new ones (Mimura et al., 2007; Topkins et al. 2005). It is therefore common to refer to climate
change as a threat multiplier. The root cause of the ongoing warming of the globe is chiefly as a
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result of one of the most ubiquitous human practices: the conversion of fossil fuel through simple
combustion (Pascual and Elkind, 2010). One of the most important consequences of climate
change, especially for Caribbean Islands, is sea level rise and storm surge events with an
increasing number of extreme storms (Simpson et al., 2010, 2009; Wong, 2010; Allison, N.L. et
al., 2009; Singh et al. 2009; Webster, 2005; Singh, 1997). Singh (1997a) has suggested that the
rate of sea level rise in the Southern Caribbean significantly exceeds the average global mean.
This is evident in the Southern Caribbean Island of Trinidad where the relative sea level has risen
by 20 cm in the past century and it is estimated to increase by approximately 6 cm per decade
(Singh 1997b). Singh (1997b) has contended that in addition, the rate of coastal erosion is
particularly extreme in the South west coast of the island where 1-2 m of its coastline is eroded
annually. This figure can reach up to 10-12 m in some places in a single year. Of particular
concern is the increasing vulnerability to sea level rise since 70% of all economic activity takes
place within 2 miles of the coastline (Collymore 2009).
In Trinidad, the State owned Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited,
PETROTRIN, which conducts its major operations in South west Trinidad commissioned a
vulnerability assessment from 2004 to 2007 as well as a storm survey simulation through
modeling of the South west coast. The purpose of the survey was to identify the impacts of
climate driven sea level rise and extreme storm surge events on the company’s infrastructure and
operations (Singh et al., 2009). The results revealed that the company’s assets would be at
considerable risk of inundation and erosion caused by sea level rise and storm surges. Major
companies such as “Atlantic” which is the seventh largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exporter
in the world and is responsible for processing approximately half of Trinidad and Tobago’s
natural gas production is also located in the South western peninsular of Trinidad (Atlantic
2013). This region is therefore of significant importance to the nation’s economy which hinges
on its exports of petroleum. Whilst efforts are now underway to diversify the country’s economic
activity away from the South west coast to Galeota in the southeast, this issue of erosion and
storm surges still exists (Lal 2013). This risky situation is coupled with an additional threat since
it has been suggested that the South west coast is also subsiding as a result of extensive offshore
drilling for oil (Kanithi and Rosano, 2009; Singh, 1997a). The impacts to communities and their
quality of life due to the loss of a sense of place, security and livelihood were not adequately
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considered during this survey. There is also a gap in the academic literature regarding climate
change knowledges. With one exception, studies have not been completed to date that have
specifically assessed lay knowledge and perceptions of sea level rise and climate change in this
region. There is also no study regarding the true value of the effect of climate change to
Trinidad and Tobago’s economy, more specifically the impacts to the nation’s security. This
therefore provides an opportunity for further research.
The destructive power of natural phenomena such as hurricanes has been identified as a threat to
national security since it has the ability to disrupt energy supplies and severely damage
infrastructure (Van Vactor 2010). This is of particular concern for the Caribbean where observed
hurricane activity in the North Atlantic has shown an increased hurricane frequency in contrast to
global frequency that showed no trend. There has also been a significant increase in the number
of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 since 1995 (Webster 2005). Despite this, the maximum
intensity over the past 35 years has remained static (Nyberg, 2007 and Webster, 2005). This,
according to Goldenberg et al. (2001) represents ‘a 2.5 fold increase in major hurricanes
(category 3-5) and a 5-fold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean.’ In 2005, Emmanuel
demonstrated that since the mid 1970s there has been an index of increased hurricane
destructiveness in the North Atlantic that he suggested might substantially increase losses due to
hurricanes in coastal populations such as those in the Caribbean in the twenty-first century.
However, Goldenberg et al. (2001) cautioned that this increase in hurricane activity is not
unusual when compared to other periods of activity. These figures should then be viewed
critically. Landsea (2006) suggested that the ‘tropical cyclone database may not be sufficiently
reliable to ascertain long-term trends, particularly in the frequency and intensity of extreme
tropical cyclones (category 4-5).’ Whilst Van Vactor (2010:105) has acknowledged that the
commodity market has become more sophisticated, it does concede that Navy Ships, tanks,
logistical support and so on all depend on a the availability of particular type of fuel. It is also
acknowledged that there are substitutes for oil, however, it takes time and considerable expense
to make the adjustments. It therefore can be concluded that major hurricane activity in the
region can have dire effects to on Caribbean militaries ablility to respond to major natural
disasters over a protracted period and would require significant reinforcement from external
agencies. The complex non linear dynamic interaction between conflict and the unavaliblity of
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renewable resources also comes to the fore. According to Maxwell and Reuveny (2000), in the
absence of effective humanitarian interventions and robust policy prescriptions one may observe
recurring phases of peace and conflict due to renewable resource scarcity. This may have
additional negative consequences particular as a country’s military may also be grappling with
similar issues of scarcity or are faced with significant damage to their assets. A natural question
to ask is to what extent these phases are borne out by real world empirical observations. Maxwell
and Reuveny (2000) have asserted that this prediction is confirmed by casual observation and
empirical study of events in Less Developed Countries (LDC) such as Rwanda, Sudan, Ethiopia
and Angola. This has also been the case in developed countries when property rights are poorly
enforced. This may also be the case, in part, in several countries in Latin America and the
Caribbean that already have great difficulty arresting their crime situation (UN 2012).
5. SHALE REVOLUTION AND ENERGY SECURITY OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
Most recently, countries such as the United States have sought to acquire their oil and gas from
sources that were more reliable, their own. “The United States is now the world's biggest
supplier of oil overtaking the world number one, Saudi Arabia, according to latest output figures.
A surge in US oil output, which includes natural gas liquids and biofuels, has swelled 3.2 million
barrels per day (bpd) since 2009” (Collis 2013). Since the US Shale revolution Trinidad &
Tobago's biggest LNG customer has now become its main competitor. Recent successes in the
United States of America have also driven prospecting across the United Kingdom. However, the
fracking method of extraction has drawn much controversy within the public realm because of
potential environmental risks. Publics in regions where fracking will possibly occur have been
bombarded with a tangled web of risk communication about the process, have generally resisted
and voiced their concerns. These concerns have now come full circle. Despite the successes of
the US shale revolution there is widespread concern, like in the UK, that the exploration and
production of shale oil and gas could result in negative externalities for communities, including
those to human health, water quality, methane contamination of drinking water, contribution to
increased greenhouse emissions and the potential to cause drought (David et al., 2013; Jenner,
2013; Vidic et al., 2013; Warner, 2012; Mayers, 2012; McKenzie et al, 2012; Osborn et al, 2011;
Schmidt, 2011; Jackson et al, 2011, Colborn, 2011; Révész, 2010). Whist the debate continues,
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Trinidad & Tobago's LNG export to the US has fallen dramatically over the past couple of years.
The island state has however adopted quickly to the challenge and now sells on the spot markets
in Asia, Europe and South America which has allowed it to diversify its LNG export market and
benefit from countries offering higher prices (CNW 2013). Subsequently, along with supplying
natural gas to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, Trinidad & Tobago has recently started
supplying to Argentina, Chile and Spain (CNW 2013). This market strategy has allowed T&T to
secure markets for its LNG whilst ensuing that its economy is not greatly affected by the increase
in US Shale gas. With the markets in the US are becoming more inaccessible it is seen as a
perfect time for the island state to look inward and invest in the downstream petroleum sector.
With regard to oil, Austin (2013) has asserted that as per existing laws, the oil produced by the
US cannot be exported, thus the possibility of even lower oil prices. Should the US government
open the market for exports, the oil prices may see a revision to lower prices. This is of concern
for OPEC nations and for smaller petroleum producers like T&T. However, it will take another
decade at least, for the US to become a major gas exporter. In terms of energy security, from a
futuristic point of view, shale will reduce the US dependence on oil from the Middle-East,
Nigeria and Venezuela (Austin 2013). Considering the global geopolitics of oil and gas, bpTT’s
President Norman Christie has acknowledged that most of the company’s large discoveries in
shallow waters around Trinidad and Tobago have already been produced or are at the tail end of
their lifecycle. He suggested that the new prospects that the company is developing to meet the
industry’s demand for gas in the short- to medium-term are now in much more complex geology,
in deeper waters, and are more costly developments (John-Lall 2013). This has serious
implications for the energy security of the island state whose economy is still heavily dependent
on the revenues from the petroleum sector. It will also mean there is increased risk to the
country’s environment and ecology as well as the need by the nation’s Coast Guard to possess
appropriate naval assets that would be capable of patroling for long period to sure that security of
personnel and petroleum assets in these areas. This is of particular concern especially since the
Caribbean Sea has an extremely high level of shipping activity and low levels of maritime
policing. Serena Joseph-Harris, former High Commissioner of the Republic of Trinidad and
Tobago to the UK has lamented that apart from the need to secure offshore petroleum
installations, the immediate challenge confronting Caribbean governments in the region is the
securing of their territorial waters from the insidious passage of illegal cargo, including drugs
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and firearms ( Brock 2011). The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is one such Caribbean nation.
It lies in the “corridors” between drug producers in South America and markets in the North.
According to the United Nations 2010 Annual Drug Report, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia are the
world’s primary sources of cocaine, whilst 36% of the world’s cocaine users reside in North
America (UNODC 2010). This complexity cannot go unaddessed since the security of not only
T&T but other nations depends on our ability to stem this threat.
6. BARRIERS TO THE ADOPTION OF RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
In addition to conventional sources of energy, in recent times Farret and Simoes (2006);
Braungart and Mc Donough (2002); AusAID (2000) and Boyle (1996) have identified the need
for the adoption of renewable technologies. However, while the technology is available, many
Small Islands are slow to adopt them (Jaffe, 2001). There is therefore a need to understand
reasons for non-adoption in Small Islands to be able to overcome obstacles. According to the
UNDP (2009), many of the efforts in adopting Renewable Energy in SIDS have been geared
toward short-term research projects and studies rather than commercial energy supply and
investments in Small Islands. Except for a few isolated cases, the impacts of renewable energy
on the economic development of these countries have been minimal (UNDP, 2009). However,
much of the literature on the non-adoption of renewable technologies has focused largely on
agricultural innovation (Doner, 2007; Lavergne 2004; Reynolds n.d.; Cochran 2003; Cabanilla et
al. 2004; Feder et al. 1985). The research that investigate reasons for the non-adoption of
renewable technologies has focused mainly on the issues raised by the individual consumer in
developed countries (Caird and Roy 2006; Caird, Herring and Roy 2007; Camagni and Capello
1996; Jochem and Madlener 2003) particularly in those known for innovation and has failed to
examine the issue in the developing world, both on the scale of the individual consumer and the
larger scale of the economy and policy makers. A number of reasons for the non-adoption of
renewable technologies in SIDS have been extracted from the literature. These include the lack
of government support; high investment cost (Quadir et al. 1995; Feder 2007; AusAID 2000);
improper or inadequate extension services and awareness; lack of knowledge of the technology
(Reynolds n.d., Velayudhan 2003); institutional and political barriers (Jensen, 2000) and the ease
with which the technology can be used (Caird and Roy 2007; AusAID 2000).
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The UNDP (2009) has also identified the lack of comprehensive energy and climate change
policies, proper infrastructure and finance as indirect barriers to adoption and development of
renewable technology in 1999. A 2009 assessment also showed that these barriers persisted
despite substantial investments in regional interventions aimed specifically at their removal
(UNDP, 2009). However, the most significant barrier remains the high initial capital costs
associated with the purchase of renewable energy technologies (Jensen, 2000b). Jensen (2000a)
further contended that considerable economic support in various sectors by former colonisers of
Small Islands, like Barbados and Jamaica, was responsible for approximately 80 per cent of the
islands adopting renewable technologies (Jensen, 2000b and UNDP, 2009). Without this
financial support through bilateral, regional and multilateral aid agencies the adoption of these
technologies would not have been possible.
7. CONCLUSION
This paper has briefly focused on the interplay of energy, climate change and national security
and it has examined each of these themes to ascertain the extent to which they impact on or were
central to the discussion regarding energy security in Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
Trinidad and Tobago, the largest oil and gas economy in the Caribbean, was used as a case study
in most instances. It is interesting to see the potential effects which global geopolitics of energy
can have on this Island State and what it has done to protect itself from potential negative
outcomes. What is noteworthy is that there is room for continued diversification of the economy
into other forms of energy and other downstream endeavours. Renewable energy has the
potential to play a substantial role the nation’s energy mix however the barriers that have been
identified need to be overcome. If this cannot be done Trinidad and Tobago might very well be
left behind in another global revolution that in tern will have negative consequences on its
development and security as well as the ability to be competitive in the global market place. As a
most urgent matter strategies need to be put into place to ensure that as a nation T&T remains
relevant so that it is able to thrive in a sustainable manner. The future of our nation and the
livelihoods of our peoples depend on it.
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