Download BONUS BAMBI Summary Report 2016

BONUSBAMBI-BalticSeamarinebiodiversity–addressingthepotentialofadaptationto
climatechangeimplications–GrantAgreementnumber:call2012-76.www.bambi.gu.se
PROJECTSUMMARY2016
Briefdescriptionoftheproject’soverallgoalandexpectedfinalresults
During decreased salinity and increased temperatures, Baltic Sea species with marine origin,
in particular, will be under heavier physiological stress than before. This stress may result in
local extinction, unless species are able to adapt to the new conditions. The overall goal of
BONUS BAMBI is to assess and through knowledge-based management improve capacities
of marine species to cope with the current challenge of a rapidly changing Baltic Sea
environment.
Research results will help to understand the potential of organisms to evolve new adaptations
and how management should be framed to support this. Expected results include suggestions
of new policies and governance principles, and opportunities to model effects on species of
various management measures.
BONUSBAMBIaimstoanswertheseurgentquestions:
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Willspeciesandecosystemsofmarineoriginadaptandsurvivethecoming50-100yearsinsidethe
BalticSea?
Ifso,whatisneededintermsofpopulationsizes,populationconnectivityandgeneticvariation?
Whatgovernancestructures,policyinstrumentsandmanagementmeasurescanmitigatefuture
lossesofmarineBalticSeaspecies?
BONUSBAMBIprojecthasreceivedfundingfromBONUS(Art185),fundedjointlybytheEU
andfromnationalfundinginstitutionsaroundtheBalticSea.
Workperformedsincelastreportingperiod
During 2016, most of what we had originally planned was finally achieved (some library
preps still await being processed for Fucus). However, due to a very comprehensive sampling
scheme and various unforeseen technical challenges, we are overall delayed with extraction
and library preparation of the genome-wide genetic data for our target species the stickleback,
Idotea balthica, and Fucus vesiculosus/F. radicans. Please notice that this is pioneering work
for all three species – genome-wide markers used for the first time in Fucus and Idotea, and
resequencing of Baltic sticklebacks for the first time, as well. This work in BONUS BAMBI
will contribute new and very important information for these species.
Based on new machine learning technique we have developed models that can handle both
species tolerances and species interactions. From these models, future scenarios of species
distributions under climate change can be outlined. We have also compiled a database
including the complete set of HELCOM MPAs in the Baltic Sea. This database will be very
useful for tests of the importance of geographic position and quality – with respect to
maintenance of genetic biodiversity – of species in the MPAs.
Furthermore, our modelling framework has now been extended with the possibility to model
future connectivity and barriers to dispersal. When our genetic data is available, the
combination of these two types of data will be very useful in foreseeing effects on
populations´ survival/extinction.
The experimental work has proceeded as planned, with several very interesting stress
experiments in which organisms have been exposed to future scenarios of combined
temperature and salinity stress. The selective breeding of sticklebacks has been completed
successfully. To assess the demographic responses to future salinities, we measured salinity
tolerance of two generations in three populations of sticklebacks.
Our studies in political science and conservation during the year concluded on the earlier
work on different forms of knowledge communication, and how these may contribute to the
science-policy interphase. Further work has summarised the knowledge and use of genetic
data in management.
We have also initiated discussions with end users about optimal positions of protected areas in
relation to future species distribution patterns and connectivity, and we have initiated
discussions on genetic monitoring programs for Swedish waters.
Mainresultsachievedduringthereportingperiod
Using classical population genetic markers (microsatellites) we have shown that the
population genetic structure of Baltic Fucus is much more complex than earlier studies have
shown. In particular, the genetic structure of populations in the Gulf of Finland show the
presence of several genetic entities, but these do not match the division into two
morphologically distinct species. In the Archipelago Sea, on the other hand, populations of
what seems to be Fucus vesiculosus on the morphology, are genetically very different from all
other Baltic Sea populations. We also show that asexual reproduction in populations of
F. vesiculosus are more predominant than earlier described.
Results of our experiments to test the tolerance to future temperature and salinities in Fucus
and Idotea were used in modelling of species distribution. We here showed that species
interactions can be included in models to predict future distributions, using a new machine
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learning technique. Moreover, we found that increased temperature and decreased salinity
affects the ecology of species in a negative way on average. However, the fact that there is
genetic variation for the response traits that may allow for successive adaptation of organisms
to future conditions gives some hope.
Our studies of management and policy shows that agreed policies on genetic diversity is not
implemented in Baltic Sea protected areas. One major reason for this is lack of knowledge
among managers. In our experimental study, we found that knowledge communication efforts
have an impact on managers´ knowledge level.
We experimentally compared traditional lectures and deliberative group discussions on public
managers’ policy beliefs regarding genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea. There were only
small differences in terms of learning between lectures and group discussions. We found that
both forms of communication stimulate knowledge development and how the importance of
genetic biodiversity is perceived. However, those who received information through a lecture
believe that the state and regional authorities should take a larger responsibility for protecting
the genetic biodiversity of the Baltic Sea, and showed greater confidence in area protection as
a management tool.
Photos:BONUSBAMBI.
Using the BONUS BAMBI model ecosystem for the Baltic Sea, a community experiment was set up at
Tjärnö/UGOT in the summer. The experiment revealed clear effects of climate change on e.g. growth and
production of defence chemicals in bladder wrack, with differences among genotypes.
1. Fucus and Idotea were sampled in Finland by the UTU team.
2. Discussing how to protect the basins from rains that could dilute the experimental salinity.
3. Checking the experimental water salinity.
4. Pierre de Wit and Eve Rothausler have just launched the last of several hundred Fucus plants in the experimental basins.
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