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A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing Apr 25, 2014 Friday throws up a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic, with the UK consumer sales data a standout highlight in early trade. The calendar gets underway around 0500GMT, when ratings agency Standard & Poor's give an update on France and the EFSF. The European data calendar starts at 0600GMT, with the release of the German February construction orders data. At 0700GMT, Spanish March producer price data will be published. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan is scheduled to speak during the SNB's General Meeting of Shareholders, in Bern, Switzerland, starting at 0800GMT. ECB Supervisory Chair Daniele Nouy speaks on supervision at the DNB conference on "Central banking in the next two decades", in Amsterdam, starting at 0830GMT. The UK calendar gets underway at 0830GMT, with the release of the March retail sales data and the March BBA Mortgage Approvals numbers. Fundamentals for consumer spending are improving. Confidence is near a 79-month high, inflation is falling and wages are rising at long last. But survey evidence for March from the British Retail Consortium and the Confederation of British Industry suggest weak activity due to that Easter falling in mid-April in 2014 compared to the end of March in 2013. Global Economic Trading Calendar At 1300GMT, the April Belgian National Bank business survey will cross the wires. US data comes late in the session. At 1345GMT, the flash April Markit Services PMI data will be published, followed by the final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers at 1355GMT. The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up to a reading of 83.0 in April from the 82.6 preliminary reading, increasing the gap over the final March figure. Back in Europe, late data sees the French March registered job seekers data released at 1600GMT. Markets FOREX: The US dollar held mostly steady against major FX this morning in the Asia-Pacific, as it recovered from early weakness, which had been partly blamed on worries about tensions in Ukraine, and after the Japanese currency weakened on CPI data out this morning. Australia and New Zealand markets are closed today, keeping the commodity currencies within narrow ranges. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.9268 after a $0.9254 to $0.9273 range in Asia today and almost flat from $0.9264 at the previous close. Euro-dollar was last at $1.3834, also almost flat from last night's $1.3831 US close. It traded a $1.3827 to $1.3838 range today. Dollar-yen was last at Y102.42, after trading a high of Y102.50 soon after the CPI release, and slightly higher from last night's Y102.31 close. EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major European bourses are initially seen little changed Friday, with the FTSE seen unchanged and the CAC and DAX both higher by 0.1%. US STOCKS CLOSE: Stocks eked out modest gains mostly Thursday, with tech stocks fairing a bit . The DJIA closed flat at 16,501.65 and the S&P 500 up 3 pts at 1,878.61. The DJIA and S&P 500 posted highs of 16,565.71 and 1884.89 Tuesday, the highest levels seen since April 4, when the DJIA and S&P 500 posted life-time highs of 16,631.63 and 1897.28. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 21 pts at 4,148.338. JGBS: Japanese government bond prices were lower due to profit-taking led by steady Japan's consumer prices, which eased hope for further easy policy. The yield on 10-year bonds stood at 0.625%, up 1.5 basis points from Thursday's close. June 10-year bond futures traded at 144.83, down 0.11, after opening at 144.99. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock futures are trading flat to modestly higher in Asian trade Friday, largely consolidating overnight levels in light trade. The S&P June mini was last half a point higher at 1873.75, with the Nasdaq June mini up 4.5 points at 3582.25. JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks ended the morning session higher across the board Friday. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 90.58 points, or 0.63%, at 14495.57. The broaderbased TOPIX was higher by 8.32 points at 1173.22. US TSYS: USTs are trading flat to modestly higher in Asian trade Friday, little impacted by the Japanese inflation data. The curve continues to flatten modestly, with both 5/30s and 10/30s sitting around multi-year lows. The yield on the benchmark 2Y was last at 0.4425%, with the 10Y at 2.685% and the Bond at 3.455%. Volume was modest in both cash and futures, with Aussie and Kiwi markets closed. OIL: Crude futures are a touch higher in Asian trade, although just shy of the best levels. However, volumes have been modest and prices tied to a narrow range. The front-month contract was last 2 cents higher at 101.96, having touched a a best level at 102.05. AUSTRALIA: Aussie and Kiwi markets are closed Friday for the observation of ANZAC Day. Technical Analysis BUND: (M14) Bounces From Ahead Of Key Support RES 4: 145.33 H14 2014 high Feb 27 RES 3: 144.97 Rising daily channel top RES 2: 144.64 M14 2014 high Apr 15 RES 1: 144.17 High Apr 24 PREVIOUS CLOSE: 143.93 SUP 1: 143.51 Low Apr 10 SUP 2: 143.15 Low Apr 9 SUP 3: 142.99 Rising daily channel base SUP 4: 142.86 55-DMA COMMENTARY: M14 Bund dipped below the 21-DMA (143.67) on Thursday before bouncing from ahead of the 143.51 support. Bears continue to look for a close below the 143.51 Apr 10 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target a retest of the rising daily channel base with the 55DMA noted just below. While the 143.51-63 region supports, bulls will target retests of the 2014 high with a close above 144.17 now needed to relieve bearish pressure. EUROSTOXX50: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA RES 4: 3297.1 Rising weekly channel top RES 3: 3239.1 2014 high Apr 4 RES 2: 3235.1 21 day upper Bollinger band RES 1: 3206.8 Low Apr 4 now resistance PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3189.8 SUP 1: 3165.4 21-DMA SUP 2: 3140.6 Alternating daily support/resistance SUP 3: 3088.1 100-DMA SUP 4: 3073.7 61.8% Fibonacci 2971.5-3239.1 COMMENTARY: A whippy day Thursday saw the Stoxx50 pop above the previous initial resistance at 3205.2 before falling sharply below the 21-DMA only to recover and end the day little changed. Bears still need a close below the 21DMA to ease bullish pressure further and a close below 3140.6 to shift overall focus lower. While the 21-DMA supports, bulls now target tests of 3206.8 with a close above confirming focus on the 2014 high. 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