Download Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
Morning Briefing
Apr 25, 2014
Friday throws up a full calendar on
both sides of the Atlantic, with the
UK consumer sales data a standout
highlight in early trade.
The calendar gets underway around
0500GMT, when ratings agency
Standard & Poor's give an update on
France and the EFSF.
The European data calendar starts at
0600GMT, with the release of the
German February construction
orders data.
At 0700GMT, Spanish March
producer price data will be published.
SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan is
scheduled to speak during the SNB's
General Meeting of Shareholders, in
Bern, Switzerland, starting at
0800GMT.
ECB Supervisory Chair Daniele
Nouy speaks on supervision at the
DNB conference on "Central banking
in the next two decades", in
Amsterdam, starting at 0830GMT.
The UK calendar gets underway at
0830GMT, with the release of the
March retail sales data and the
March BBA Mortgage Approvals
numbers.
Fundamentals for consumer
spending are improving. Confidence
is near a 79-month high, inflation is
falling and wages are rising at long
last. But survey evidence for March
from the British Retail Consortium
and the Confederation of British
Industry suggest weak activity due to
that Easter falling in mid-April in
2014 compared to the end of March
in 2013.
Global Economic Trading Calendar
At 1300GMT, the April Belgian
National Bank business survey will
cross the wires.
US data comes late in the session.
At 1345GMT, the flash April Markit
Services PMI data will be published,
followed by the final April University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
numbers at 1355GMT.
The Michigan Sentiment index is
expected to be revised up to a
reading of 83.0 in April from the 82.6
preliminary reading, increasing the
gap over the final March figure.
Back in Europe, late data sees the
French March registered job seekers
data released at 1600GMT.
Markets
FOREX: The US dollar held mostly
steady against major FX this morning
in the Asia-Pacific, as it recovered
from early weakness, which had
been partly blamed on worries about
tensions in Ukraine, and after the
Japanese currency weakened
on CPI data out this morning.
Australia and New Zealand markets
are closed today, keeping the
commodity currencies within narrow
ranges. Aussie-dollar was last at
$0.9268 after a $0.9254 to $0.9273
range in Asia today and almost flat
from $0.9264 at the previous close.
Euro-dollar was last at $1.3834, also
almost flat from last night's $1.3831
US close. It traded a $1.3827 to
$1.3838 range today. Dollar-yen was
last at Y102.42, after trading a high
of Y102.50 soon after the CPI
release, and slightly higher from last
night's Y102.31 close.
EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major
European bourses are initially seen
little changed Friday, with the FTSE
seen unchanged and the CAC and
DAX both higher by 0.1%.
US STOCKS CLOSE: Stocks eked
out modest gains mostly Thursday,
with tech stocks fairing a bit . The
DJIA closed flat at 16,501.65 and the
S&P 500 up 3 pts at 1,878.61. The
DJIA and S&P 500 posted highs of
16,565.71 and 1884.89 Tuesday,
the highest levels seen since April 4,
when the DJIA and S&P 500 posted
life-time highs of 16,631.63 and
1897.28. The Nasdaq Composite
closed up 21 pts at 4,148.338.
JGBS: Japanese government bond
prices were lower due to profit-taking
led by steady Japan's consumer
prices, which eased hope for further
easy policy. The yield on 10-year
bonds stood at 0.625%, up 1.5 basis
points from Thursday's close. June
10-year bond futures traded at
144.83, down 0.11, after opening at
144.99.
US INDEX FUTURES: US stock
futures are trading flat to modestly
higher in Asian trade Friday, largely
consolidating overnight levels in light
trade. The S&P June mini was last
half a point higher at 1873.75, with
the Nasdaq June mini up 4.5 points
at 3582.25.
JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks
ended the morning session higher
across the board Friday. The Nikkei
225 was higher by 90.58 points, or
0.63%, at 14495.57. The broaderbased TOPIX was higher by 8.32
points at 1173.22.
US TSYS: USTs are trading flat to
modestly higher in Asian trade
Friday, little impacted by the
Japanese inflation data. The curve
continues to flatten modestly, with
both 5/30s and 10/30s sitting around
multi-year lows. The yield on the
benchmark 2Y was last at 0.4425%,
with the 10Y at 2.685% and the Bond
at 3.455%. Volume was modest in
both cash and futures, with Aussie
and Kiwi markets closed.
OIL: Crude futures are a touch
higher in Asian trade, although just
shy of the best levels. However,
volumes have been modest and
prices tied to a narrow range. The
front-month contract was last 2 cents
higher at 101.96, having touched a a
best level at 102.05.
AUSTRALIA: Aussie and Kiwi
markets are closed Friday for the
observation of ANZAC Day.
Technical Analysis
BUND: (M14) Bounces From Ahead Of Key Support
RES 4: 145.33 H14 2014 high Feb 27
RES 3: 144.97 Rising daily channel top
RES 2: 144.64 M14 2014 high Apr 15
RES 1: 144.17 High Apr 24
PREVIOUS CLOSE: 143.93
SUP 1: 143.51 Low Apr 10
SUP 2: 143.15 Low Apr 9
SUP 3: 142.99 Rising daily channel base
SUP 4: 142.86 55-DMA
COMMENTARY: M14 Bund dipped below the 21-DMA
(143.67) on Thursday before bouncing from ahead of the
143.51 support. Bears continue to look for a close below the
143.51 Apr 10 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
target a retest of the rising daily channel base with the 55DMA noted just below. While the 143.51-63 region supports,
bulls will target retests of the 2014 high with a close above
144.17 now needed to relieve bearish pressure.
EUROSTOXX50: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
RES 4: 3297.1 Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: 3239.1 2014 high Apr 4
RES 2: 3235.1 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: 3206.8 Low Apr 4 now resistance
PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3189.8
SUP 1: 3165.4 21-DMA
SUP 2: 3140.6 Alternating daily support/resistance
SUP 3: 3088.1 100-DMA
SUP 4: 3073.7 61.8% Fibonacci 2971.5-3239.1
COMMENTARY: A whippy day Thursday saw the Stoxx50
pop above the previous initial resistance at 3205.2 before
falling sharply below the 21-DMA only to recover and end the
day little changed. Bears still need a close below the 21DMA to ease bullish pressure further and a close below
3140.6 to shift overall focus lower. While the 21-DMA
supports, bulls now target tests of 3206.8 with a close above
confirming focus on the 2014 high.
Eurex Futures Market Close
Contact MNI:
Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400, [email protected]
MNI Sales - [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
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