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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ephemeral Pond in Wisconsin Eric Epstein, WDNR In 2014, the Wisconsin DNR’s Natural Heritage Conservation program conducted eight vulnerability assessment workshops across Wisconsin to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on over 50 natural communities. At one workshop, a team of conservation professionals utilized experience and published literature to assess the vulnerability of Ephemeral Pond based on the potential impact and adaptive capacity of the ecological processes, dominant and important plant species, and stressors to the community. a Distribution of Ephemeral Pond in Wisconsin based on existing NHI data (likely much more extensive than map indicates, as many areas have not been well-surveyed for this community) Executive Summary Ephemeral Ponds are often defined based on the amphibians and invertebrates that use them, especially those for which ponds are their primary breeding habitat. Warmer temperatures, higher evapotranspiration rates and longer dry spells could lead to some ponds drying up earlier, which could adversely impact species that require inundation for larval development. Extreme precipitation events could also adversely impact species as well as increase the risk of invasion by non-native plants like reed canary grass. Ponds usually occur in forested landscapes, and risk of rutting from harvesting equipment could increase with shorter winters and fewer days of frozen ground conditions. On the positive side, ponds are widespread across the landscape and most of the plant and animal species that use them are relatively common with at least moderate dispersal ability. In addition, while many tree species associated with ponds could decline, other, better adapted tree species could take their place, with potentially minimal impact to obligate pond breeders, provided pond hydroperiods remain similar. a Potential Impacts: Moderately Negative to Negative + Adaptive Capacity: Moderate to Moderately Low Overall Estimated Vulnerability: Moderate to High For information on how this assessment was conducted, please see the CCVA Vulnerability Determination Process on the WICCI Plants and Natural Communities working group website. Greatest Potential Impacts: Ponds could dry earlier in the year due to higher rates of evapotranspiration and longer dry spells, which could shorten the duration of inundation and adversely impact the reproductive success of the animal assemblages that largely define Ephemeral Ponds.1, 2 These animals include many obligate pond-breeding amphibians (e.g., wood frog, spotted salamander, blue-spotted salamander, etc.) and invertebrates (e.g., fairy shrimp, etc.). More episodic precipitation with long rain-free periods punctuated by extreme precipitation events could result in a cycle of repeated drying and reinundation of Ephemeral Ponds, potentially impacting animal larval development as well as native plants.3 Extreme rain events also increase the risk of erosion, sedimentation, nutrient enrichment and other run-off pollution (e.g., road salt), especially in basins with human land uses such as agriculture, developed areas, or roads.4, 5 Excess nutrients, flooding, and general disturbance also favor non-native species such as reed canary grass over native vegetation.6, 7 Direct disturbance to ponds via rutting or timber harvesting within ponds is also a concern, and a shortening of frozen ground conditions may increase the risk of rutting or other soil disturbance.8 Trees within or directly adjacent to ponds also have shallow root systems and may be vulnerable to windthrow, especially in the face of more extreme storms.8, 9 Key forest species may also experience a reduction in suitable habitat due to climate change10 or are vulnerable to pests and disease (e.g., emerald ash borer).11 Loss of individual trees would alter forest structure surrounding the pond. While decreased shading would increase water temperatures and speed rates of larval development,12 this does not make up for higher tadpole mortality in rapidly drying ponds.13 In addition, most Ephemeral Pond obligates prefer at least partially shaded ponds on average14 and a large reduction in the canopy in forest cover would also likely adversely impact the pond community by increase the risk of desiccation of adults in the surrounding forest during the nonbreeding season.12 Factors that most influence Adaptive Capacity: The extreme dependence of Ephemeral Ponds upon surface water as well as their generally small basins and shallow depth makes them highly vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns and diminishes their adaptive capacity in any given year.1, 15 However, although ponds are by nature small, spatially fixed, and hydrologically isolated from one another, ponds that are clustered in the landscape tend to have higher species richness, abundance, and more similar species than isolated ponds.16 Thus, clusters of ponds presents opportunities for mobile species to seek out more suitable breeding habitat if a subset of ponds become prone to early drying during periods of drought. In addition, Ephemeral Ponds and the species that breed therein have a wide distribution across the landscape, and most species have at least moderate dispersal ability. Ephemeral Ponds and their assemblage of key amphibians and invertebrates also appear to relatively insensitive to changes in the composition of the surrounding forest, provided litter quality (e.g., from deciduous trees) and surrounding forest canopy cover remain stable over the long term.17, 18 Thus, even if some species such as quaking aspen, big tooth aspen, sugar maple, or yellow birch decline as projected under high-change scenarios,10 increases in other species such as red maple10, 19 may continue to provide suitable habitat structure at the local and landscape level. In addition, ponds and their relatively cool, moist depressions may serve as local climate refugia for trees sensitive to soil moisture stress. Key uncertainties: • Several amphibians that are obligate breeders in Ephemeral Ponds were ranked as Extremely Vulnerable or Highly Vulnerable to climate change in a NatureServe CCVI in Michigan, including wood frog, blue-spotted salamander, spotted salamander, and four-toed salamander.20 However, other researchers note some amphibians have an ability to adapt to climate change in a variety of ways, including adult lungless salamanders (plethodontids, a group that includes four-toed salamanders) responding to drought by seeking out local climate refugia with cooler summer • • temperatures and higher relative humidity such as in or adjacent to caves and near-permanent streams.21 In addition, adult headwater stream-dwelling salamanders have been noted to temporarily emigrate to more suitable habitat to survive periods of drought, and return to their breeding areas when drought conditions end.22 Do other groups of salamanders more common in Ephemeral Ponds (i.e., spotted salamander, blue-spotted salamander, and other mole salamanders) and other pond-dependent amphibians also exhibit local-scale adaptive capacity? While differences in forest canopy (e.g., oak vs. maple) have been anecdotally implicated in determining the use of ponds by amphibians, few differences have been reported in literature synthesizing research across the Midwest and Northeast.17, 18 With long -term climate projections that favor oak or other central hardwoods species, are there significant differences in litter quality (e.g., higher levels of tannins, etc.) between climate-sensitive versus climateadapted tree species that could affect amphibian or macroinvertebrate use and reproductive success? While precipitation-fed ephemeral wetlands have been ranked as the most vulnerable of all wetland types to climate change,1, 23 are there consistently identifiable characteristics of individual ponds, clusters of ponds, or pond landscapes that may make them less vulnerable to the adverse impacts of higher temperatures, greater evapotranspiration, longer dry spells, and extreme events? Climate Change Vulnerability Determination for Ephemeral Pond in Wisconsin Low Change Scenario (PCM B1) High Change Scenario (GFDL A1FI) Potential Impacts: Moderately negative Negative Adaptive Capacity: Moderate Moderately low Overall Estimated Vulnerability: Moderate Confidence: High Medium evidence, medium agreement Participants at the non-forested wetlands workshop Ephemeral Pond Key Factors and Processes Potential Impacts under Climate Change Occurs throughout Wisconsin, typically in morainal landscapes in depressions lined with clay/silt lens, although can also occur in small bedrock basins, such as on portions of the Apostle Islands and elsewhere. Predominant ecological process is seasonal inundation by spring snowmelt and rain followed by summer drawdown. Community is confined to small depressions and is unable to migrate. However, most plant and animal species are widespread and have at least moderate dispersal ability. Ponds are fishless and generally lacking in major invertebrate predators with no inlets or outlets, making Ephemeral Ponds the preferred (and sometimes obligate) breeding area for certain amphibians as well as fairy shrimp and other aquatic invertebrates. Surrounding forest cover provides shade, physical structure (coarse and fine woody debris), and leaf litter inputs, which influences water chemistry and usage by amphibians. Timing of amphibian use and successful breeding is highly variable depending on spring temperatures, precipitation patterns, and pond duration. Increased winter rain and earlier snowmelt may shift periods of 24 inundation earlier in the growing season; however, droughts as well as higher evapotranspiration rates could also lead to lower pond 1, 15 Ponds are naturally water depths and shorter inundation periods. flashy and may therefore be somewhat adapted to variable precipitation, but nevertheless are likely vulnerable to sudden 1, 3 increases in water levels due to extreme rain events, which can drown native plants and favor non-natives like reed canary grass if already present at a site. Potential changes to hydroperiod could affect faunal use in ponds. If the period of inundation is shorter, it could reduce short-term 1, 2 amphibian breeding success. If the period of inundation is longer, it could be beneficial for breeding, but colonization by predaceous 25 insects is also more likely. However, most ponds are unlikely to become permanently invaded by fish as drawdowns or freeze-out conditions will probably still occur. As surrounding forest changes (see Dominant/Important Species below), ponds may be impacted as well. Increasing wind speeds and 8 rates of wind throw could increase coarse and fine woody debris. Localized canopy gaps around ponds speed the larval development of Ephemeral Pond obligates such as wood frog and spotted 12 salamander by decreasing shading and increasing water, however, this does not make up for higher tadpole mortality in rapidly drying 13 ponds. In addition, these species still prefer at least partially 14 shaded ponds on average and a large reduction in the canopy of 12 the adjacent forest increases the risk of desiccation of adults. Adult amphibians residing in duff layer or in/under coarse woody debris are also adversely impacted by drought. Timing of amphibian breeding may shift earlier in year. Drought 1, 2 reduces the likelihood of successful larval development. With more episodic precipitation and increased evapotranspiration, vernal pools would dry earlier in the year and remain dry longer and adversely affect the successful reproduction as well as isolate the 15 remaining productive pools. Dominant/Important Species 10 Climate Change Tree Atlas b Modeled change in suitable habitat from 2000 to 2100 in northern and southern WI Modifying Factors19 Change in suitable habitat Model reliability Low (PCM BI) High (GFDL A1FI) Positive Traits High No Change Decrease SES ESP COL DISP Negative Traits Adapt Score* Northern Wisconsin Red maple Black ash High Decrease Decrease Sugar Maple High No Change Large Decrease Red oak Bigtooth aspen High Increase No change High Decrease Large Decrease Quaking aspen High Decrease Yellow birch High Eastern hemlock Southern Wisconsin Silver maple Red maple 8.5 INS COL DISP DRO SES FTK ESP 5.8 COL ESP INS 5.4 FRG DISP COL DRO FTK 5.1 Large Decrease SES FRG ESP COL DRO FTK 4.7 Decrease Large Decrease DISP FTK INS DISE 3.4 High Increase Large Decrease COL INS DRO 2.7 Medium Large Increase Large Increase DISP SES COL DRO FTK 5.6 High No Change Decrease SES ESP COL DISP 8.5 Black ash High Decrease Large Decrease INS COL DISP DRO SES FTK ESP Green ash Medium No Change Increase INS FTK COL High No Change Decrease Sugar maple 1.7 COL ESP 1.7 4.0 5.8 INS Red oak High No Change Large Decrease 5.4 COL FTK Basswood Medium No Change No Change 4.6 * Species with an Adapt Score of 5.3 or greater have many positive traits, higher than average adaptability, and may perform better than Tree Atlas habitat suitability models project. Species with an Adapt Score between 5.2 and 3.3 have average adaptability. Species with an Adapt Score of 3.2 or lower have many negative traits, lower than average adaptability, and may perform worse than Tree Atlas habitat suitability models project. In much of glaciated Midwest, Ephemeral Ponds (also called Vernal Pools) are defined and managed primarily by their animal assemblages rather than plant composition. The dominant biotic factors influencing animal assemblage and pond use are primarily landscape context (forested vs. unforested), degree of pond shading, leaf litter inputs, fine woody debris, and coarse woody debris, most of which is contributed by the surrounding forest.12, 17 Although shrub and herbaceous vegetation may be locally important in some ponds, composition is highly variable and comparably less important to the defining characteristics of this community. Thus, shrub and herbaceous vegetation is not further considered here. b For more information on Tree Atlas, please see Explanation of Tree Atlas Model on the WICCI Plants and Natural Communities working group website. Stressors/Threats Potential Changes to Stressors/Threats under Climate Change Invasive species (e.g., reed canary grass) Reed canary grass capitalizes on warmer temperatures, longer 6, 7 growing seasons, and higher nutrients. Loss of surrounding forest canopy (e.g., from logging, windthrow, pests and disease, etc.) Risk of windthrow could increase with higher intensity storm 8, 9 events. Emerald Ash Borer will cause over 99% mortality to all 11 species of ash. Pests and diseases are likely to increase in abundance and distribution and tend to be exacerbated by moisture 26, 27 Loss of forest canopy increases the risk of stress and disturbance. more rapid pond drying, which reduces reproductive success for 13 amphibians. Increases in extreme storms as well as winter and spring rain could lower water quality in erosion-prone landscapes or local basins with 4, 5 roads, development, or agriculture. Demand on regional water supplies could increase for agriculture 28 and municipal use, but impacts likely will be basin-specific. Changes to water quality (e.g., from sedimentation, pollution run off) Hydrologic alteration (e.g., ditching, groundwater withdrawal) Rutting Logging in or adjacent to pond without appropriate 18 buffers 18 Fragmentation of pond clusters and corridors Pond deepening for fishing/recreation Wetland filling A shortening of frozen ground conditions may increase the risk of 9 rutting or other soil disturbance. Preemptive or salvage logging for ash impacted by Emerald Ash Borer or other trees impacted by pests could increase. Climateinduced stress can increase susceptibility of trees to pests and 9, 29 diseases. Fragmentation is likely to increase with development over time, though this is likely driven more by socio-economic and policy factors. References 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Brooks, R.T. 2009. Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States. Climatic Change 95 (3):469-483. Donald, D.B., W.T. Aitken, C. Paquette, and S.S. Wulff. 2011. Winter snowfall determines the occupancy of northern prairie wetlands by tadpoles of the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus). Canadian Journal of Zoology 89 (11):1063-1073. Brooks, R.T. 2005. A review of basin morphology and pool hydrology of isolated ponded wetlands: implications for seasonal forest pools of the northeastern United States. Wetlands Ecology and Management 13 (3):335-348. Zedler, J.B. 2009. How frequent storms affect wetland vegetation: a preview of climate-change impacts. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8 (10):540-547. Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts [WICCI]. 2010. Water Resources Working Group Report. Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Universty of Wisconsin-Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Madison, WI. Kercher, S.M., and J.B. Zedler. 2004. Flood tolerance in wetland angiosperms: a comparison of invasive and noninvasive species. Aquatic Botany 80:89-102. Zedler, J.B. 2007. Climate Change and Arboretum Wetlands. edited by University of Wisconsin Arboretum. Madison, WI. Frelich, L.E., and P.B. Reich. 2010. Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie—forest border of central North America? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8 (7):371-378. Janowiak, M.K., L.R. Iverson, D.J. Mladenoff, E. Peters, K.R. Wythers, W. Xi, L.A. Brandt, P.R. Butler, S.D. Handler, P.D. Shannon, C. Swanston, L.R. Parker, A.J. Amman, B. Bogaczyk, C. Handler, E. Lesch, P.B. Reich, S. Matthews, M. Peters, A. Prasad, S. Khanal, F. Liu, T. Bal, D. Bronson, A. Burton, J. Ferris, J. Fosgitt, S. Hagan, E. Johnston, E. Kane, C. Matula, R. O'Connor, D. Higgins, M. St. Pierre, J. Daley, M. Davenport, M.R. Emery, D. Fehringer, C.L. Hoving, G. Johnson, D. Neitzel, M. Notaro, A. Rissman, C. Rittenhouse, and R. Ziel. 2014. Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-136. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. Newtown Square, PA. https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs136.pdf. Iverson, L.R., A.M. Prasad, S.N. Matthews, and M. Peters. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern U.S. tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management 254 (3):390-406. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources [WDNR]. 2010. Emerald Ash Borer and Forest Management. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Madison, WI. Semlitsch, R.D., and D.K. Skelly. 2007. Ecology and Conservation of Pool-Breeding Amphibians. Pp. 127-147 in Aram J. K. Calhoun and Phillip G. DeMaynadier (Eds.), Science and Conservation of Vernal Pools in Northeastern North America. CRC Press. Amburgey, S.M., M. Murphy, and W. Chris Funk. 2016. Phenotypic plasticity in developmental rate is insufficient to offset high tadpole mortality in rapidly drying ponds. Ecosphere 7 (7):e01386. Skelly, D.K., M.A. Halverson, L.K. Freidenburg, and M.C. Urban. 2005. Canopy closure and amphibian diversity in forested wetlands. Wetlands Ecology and Management 13 (3):261-268. Brooks, R.T. 2004. Weather-related effects on woodland vernal pool hydrology and hydroperiod. Wetlands 24:104-114. Van Dyke, F., A. Berthel, S.M. Harju, R.L. Lamb, D. Thompson, J. Ryan, E. Pyne, and G. Dreyer. 2017. Amphibians in forest pools: Does habitat clustering affect community diversity and dynamics? Ecosphere 8 (2):e01671. Colburn, E.A. 2004. Vernal Pools: Natural History and Conservation. The McDonald and Woodward Publishing Company. Granville, OH. Calhoun, A.J.K., and P.G. DeMaynadier. 2007. Science and Conservation of Vernal Pools in Northeastern North America: Ecology and Conservation of Seasonal Wetlands in Northeastern North America. CRC Press. New York, NY. Matthews, S.N., L.R. Iverson, A.M. Prasad, M.P. Peters, and P.G. Rodewald. 2011. Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history factors. Forest Ecology and Management 262:1460-1472. Hoving, C.L., Y.M. Lee, P.J. Badra, and B.J. Klatt. 2013. Changing Climate, Changing Wildlife: A Vulnerability Assessment of 400 Species of Greatest Conservation Need and Game Species in Michigan. Michigan Department of Natural Resources. Lansing, MI. Briggler, J.T., and J.W. Prather. 2006. Seasonal Use and Selection of Caves by Plethodontid Salamanders in a Karst Area of Arkansas. The American midland naturalist 155 (1):136-148. Price, S.J., R.A. Browne, and M.E. Dorcas. 2012. Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought. Herpetologica 68 (3):312-323. Bates, B., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, and J. Palutikof. 2008. Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat. Geneva. Pyke, C.R., and J. Marty. 2005. Cattle Grazing Mediates Climate Change Impacts on Ephemeral Wetlands. Conservation Biology 19 (5):1619-1625. 25 26 27 28 29 Higgins, M.J., and R.W. Merritt. 1999. Temporary woodland ponds in Michigan: invertebrate seasonal patterns and tropic relationships. Pp. 279-297 in D.P. Batzer, R.B. Rader and S.A. Wissinger (Eds.), Invertebrates in freshwater wetlands of North America: ecology and management. John Wiley and Sons. New York, NY. Weed, A.S., M.P. Ayres, and J.A. Hicke. 2013. Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests. Ecological Monographs 83 (4):441-470. Dukes, J.S. 2011. Responses of invasive species to a changing climate and atmosphere. Pp. 345-357 in David M. Richardson (Eds.), Fifty years of invasion ecology: The legacy of Charles Elton. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Oxford, UK. Eheart, J.W., and D.W. Tornil. 1999. Low‐flow frequency exacerbation by irrigation withdrawals in the agricultural midwest under various climate change scenarios. Water Resources Research 35 (7):2237-2246. Dukes, J.S., J. Pontius, D. Orwig, J.R. Garnas, V.L. Rodgers, N. Brazee, B. Cooke, K.A. Theoharides, E.E. Stange, and R. Harrington. 2009. Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict? Canadian Journal of Forest Research 39 (2):231-248. Non-forested Wetlands Workshop Participants Workshop Date: October 6, 2014 Location: Ashland, WI Peggy Burkman National Park Service, Apostle Islands National Lakeshore Mike Gardner Northflow, LLC Paul Hlina University of Wisconsin-Superior Lake Superior Research Institute Sarah Johnson Northland College Carly Lapin WDNR-Natural Heritage Conservation Amanda Little University of Wisconsin-Stout Tracey Ledder Lake Superior National Estuarine Research Reserve Colleen Matula WDNR-Forest Sciences Linda Parker USDA Forest Service, Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest Michele Wheeler WDNR-Water Resources Facilitators: Ryan O’Connor WDNR-Natural Heritage Conservation Amy Staffen WDNR-Natural Heritage Conservation dnr.wi.gov WICCI.WISC.EDU Suggested Citation: Wisconsin Initiative on Change Impacts [WICCI]. 2017. Climate Vulnerability Assessments for Plant Communities of Wisconsin. Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts, Madison, WI.