Download earthquake prediction by using gis

EARTHQUAKE
PREDICTION BY
USING GIS
Prepared by:
Mansoor Jehangir
-A CRP 514 Term Project-Submitted to : Dr. Baqer Al-Ramadan-
INTRODUCTION
Natural hazards and catastrophes are recurring phenomenon which affects one or the other
part of the world every now and then.
Of all such hazards the most devastating are the earthquakes.
Occurrence of earthquakes is very
uncertain.
It can neither be predicted nor forecast.
 Causes immense destruction and loss of
life.
INTRODUCTION
 What is an earthquake and what causes them to happen?
Earthquakes occur from the deformation of outer, brittle portions of "tectonic plates", the
earth's outermost layer of crust and upper mantle.
Due to the heating and cooling of the rock below these plates, causes the adjacently
overlying plates to move, and, under great stresses, deform.
The rates of plate movements range from about 2 to 12 centimeters per year.
 What is plate tectonics?
The earth's crust (the outer layer of the planet) is made up of several pieces, called plates.
Plate tectonics is the continual slow movement of the tectonic plates.
 What is a fault?
A fault is a fracture or zone of fractures between two blocks of rock.
Faults allow the blocks to move relative to each other.
INTRODUCTION
Figure on the left shows the world divided into different tectonic plates and figure on the
right describes the three plate boundaries
Earthquake Prediction
 It may never be possible to predict the exact time and location of the earthquake.
 However, when predicting where the next big earthquake might occur, seismologists look
closely at areas where major earthquakes have occurred in the past.
 There are several different methods used for earthquake prediction:
Statistical probability
Physical measurements
Geochemical observations
Observations of animal behavior
Earthquake Prediction
 Statistical Method:
By collecting adequate historical data, predictions can be made as where and when might a
big earthquake strike.
Predictions based on statistical analysis of historical earthquake data can only be given for
the long or intermediate time frames.
 Example:
If there have been four magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes in an area in a 200 year period,
then this frequency is one in 50 years i.e. if the last data used for evaluation was of year
2000, then the prediction for earthquake will be on 2050.
This term project involves the use of this method to predict a future earthquake activity in
Japan.
PROJECT DETAILS
 Skills Involved:
 Navigating through and effectively using a GIS software.
Changing map symbology.
Manipulating tabular information, including selecting attributes, querying
tables and sorting tables.
Querying map data.
 Downloading and formatting data from the Internet for use in GIS.
 Changing map projections.
 Creating new information from existing data.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
 First task was to download
data from the site.
 Layers include faults, plate
lines, countries and world.
View of base map with all
features “on” 
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
 This task includes
downloading data from the
internet and exploring it .
 Data was downloaded from
the USGS site, which provides
many different kinds of
Earthquakes data, involving
historical data
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
Editing data:
ArcView requires a comma deliminated text file or a dbase file to generate points.
It also expects west longitude and south latitude to be negative numbers, with no
directional designations (N, S, E, or W).
For plotting the Earthquake data, I have used a third party software called ET
Geowizard.
ET Geowizard:
It is a third party software through which data from text files, comma delaminated
files, or dbase files can be generated into Arcview format and features like points,
lines and polygons can be created.
There are many other useful functions available in the software.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
 Labeling and symbolizing features:
Colors, fonts, size and positions were assigned to the features so that the map can be
viewed without any difficulty.
 Symbolizing Features:
 Plate boundary layer was symbolized by categorical attributes, using different
colors for different types.
Earthquake data layers (points) were also categorically symbolized for making the
map more informative.
Classifying the earthquake values by magnitude (natural brinks) presents a clear
picture on the map, as to which value of the earthquake is larger at any particular
location.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
Analyzing Data:
Eight different
earthquake data layers
were added.
Layers include
earthquake data of the
year 1997, 2000, 2001,
2002, 2003 and 2004.
Two other data sets
were included to perform
historical analyses in the
most earthquake prone
area of the world, Japan.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
What do we notice about the
distribution of these earthquakes?
By examining the map, we can say
that most of the earthquakes occur near
plate boundaries.
By running a query we can also find
out the percentage of earthquakes
within 100 miles or 200 of the plate
boundaries.
The result of the query shows that
about 87% of the earthquakes strike
within the 200 miles of the plate
boundary.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
What type of plate boundary is
associated with earthquakes with a
magnitude of 6.0 or greater?
Using features by attributes and
running a query can point us to the plate
boundary which is mostly associated
with earthquakes having larger
magnitude.
Therefore the result of the query
clearly shows that big earthquakes
occur most frequently at convergent
plate boundaries.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
Similar query is performed as before, to find the percentage of earthquakes striking
within 100 and 200 miles of convergent boundaries.
Results in the table below shows the number of earthquakes occurring within 100 and
200 miles of convergent boundaries.
Year
Within 200 miles
Within 100 miles
1997
86 %
47 %
2000
83 %
63 %
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
Why is Japan, so earthquake prone area?
Display units were set to decimal
minutes seconds, but for our query,
we need to change it to miles, as
shown in figure.
Next task will be to zoom to
Japan.
The zoomed frame is captured as
a bookmark for future reference.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
Why is Japan, so earthquake prone area?
Query is run by which convergent
boundaries and country Japan is selected.
The figure clearly shows that Japan lies near
most active boundary i.e. Convergent
boundaries.
Using the measurement tool, we can find the
distance from the plate boundary to the closest
large earthquake.
Display shows the figure of 174 miles,
which proves why Japan is most earthquake
prone country of the world. Since it is already
proved that most EQs occur within 200 miles
from the convergent boundary.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
Next and final task is to predict
when the next big earthquake will
strike Japan in future.
Using the statistical method a
query is run to find the occurrence
of earthquake (magnitude 6.5 or
greater) in the country Japan.
This data is from year 1556 till
2003.
PROJECT DETAILS
METHODOLOGY
By the query results shown in the previous slide, the results can be
calculated as:
Since the data is from year 1556 till 2003, means a (2003 – 1556) 447
years data.
In 447 years, 9 big earthquakes have struck Japan.
With a frequency of 1 in 50 years (447 / 9 = 50).
Therefore we can say that in the year 2053 (2003+50), there is a
fair chance of big earthquake striking the country Japan again.
CONCLUSION
 Scientists can not predict the exact location, time, or magnitude
of an earthquake.
 But by statistical method we can identify approximate time, as
to when it is more likely for a big earthquake to occur sooner
rather than late.
 All the detail analysis of the data clearly shows why Japan is
most earthquake prone area of the world, and
 By statistical method of prediction of earthquake; it is mostly
likely that in the year 2053, next big earthquake will strike Japan.
THANKYOU
Questions & Comments