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Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
February 25, 2016
Prepared by the
Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington
Meade Krosby, UW Climate Impacts Group
Harriet Morgan, UW Climate Impacts Group
Michael Case, UW School of Environmental and Forest Sciences
Lara Whitely Binder, UW Climate Impacts Group
1
Recommended Citation
Krosby,M.,Morgan,H.,Case,M.,WhitelyBinder,L.2016.StillaguamishTribeNatural
ResourcesClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.ClimateImpactsGroup,Universityof
Washington.
Cover photo: SnowCapped(NorthForkStillaguamish)byMarkPouley,usedunderCCBYNC-ND2.0
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Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
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2. METHODS
2.1 OVERVIEW OF ASSESSMENT APPROACH
2.2 SPECIES AND HABITATS SELECTION
2.3 ASSESSMENT AREAS
2.4 QUANTITATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
i. NatureServe CCVI
ii. Data Sources and Climate Scenarios
iii. Data Preparation
2.5 QUALITATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
i. Species
ii. Habitats
2.6 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL PROJECTED CLIMATIC CHANGES
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3. RESULTS
3.1 SPECIES AND HABITATS ASSESSED
3.2 TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROJECTIONS
3.3 CCVI ANALYSIS RESULTS
i. CCVI results for 2050s
ii. CCVI results for 2080s
3.4 INCORPORATING ADDITIONAL RELEVANT INFORMATION
3.5 RESULTS OF QUALITATIVE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
i. Species
ii. Habitats
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4. KEY FINDINGS
4.1 KEY CCVI FINDINGS FOR THE 2050S
i. Mammals
ii. Birds
iii. Aquatic Species
iv. Amphibians and Reptiles
4.2 KEY CCVI FINDINGS FOR THE 2080S
i. Mammals
ii. Birds
iii. Aquatic Species
iv. Amphibians and Reptiles
4.3 KEY FINDINGS FOR HABITATS
i. Forest
ii. Freshwater Aquatic
iii. Montane: Alpine, Subalpine, Meadow, Talus
iv. Open Meadow
v. Wetland: Forested Wetland
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5. LIMITATIONS OF THE CCVI
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6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS
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7. REFERENCES
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APPENDIX 1
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NATURESERVE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY INDEX (CCVI) RANKINGS, CONFIDENCE
SCORES, AND SENSITIVITY SUB-SCORES
Appendix 1a. 2050s
Appendix 1b. 2080s
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APPENDIX 2
INFORMATION GAPS FOR ASSESSED SPECIES
Appendix 2a. Information Status for Quantitatively Assessed Species
Appendix 2b. Information Status for Qualitatively Assessed Species
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APPENDIX 3
SPECIES AND HABITATS FACT SHEETS
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
1. INTRODUCTION
Futurechangesinclimateareexpectedtosignificantlyimpactregionalspeciesandecosystems,
viachangesinspeciesdistributionsandabundances;theproductivity,composition,and
distributionofvegetationcommunities;andthetimingofbiologicalevents(e.g.,flowering,
breeding,andmigration).Understandingwhichspeciesandecosystemsaremostlikelytobe
vulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange,andwhy,isacriticalfirststepinaddressing
potentialnegativeeffectsandmaintaininghealthyecosystems.
Thisreportdescribesanassessmentoftheclimatechangevulnerabilityofpriorityspeciesand
habitatsfortheStillaguamishTribeofIndians.Inadditiontodescribingourapproachand
resultingsensitivityscoresandvulnerabilityrankings,weprovideanappendixofquickreferencefactsheetsforeachoftheassessedspeciesandhabitattypes,highlightingtheir
primaryclimatesensitivitiesandresearchneeds.Theseestimatesofclimatevulnerability,
underlyingclimatesensitivities,andkeyinformationgapsshouldhelplaythefoundationforthe
Tribe’sfutureclimateadaptationandresearchefforts.
2. METHODS
2.1 Overview of Assessment Approach
WeworkedwiththeStillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesDepartmenttodevelopalistof
priorityspeciesandhabitattypes,andspecifytheirlevelofpriorityforassessment.We
assessedasmanyofthesespeciesandhabitatsaspossible,accordingtotheirlevelofpriority,
dataavailability,andthetimeavailablefortheassessment.Forspeciesforwhichadequatedata
wereavailable,wecompletedaquantitativeassessmentofclimatevulnerabilityusing
NatureServe’sClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI).Forhabitatsandspecieslacking
sufficientdataforaCCVIanalysis,wecompletedaqualitativeassessmentofclimate
vulnerability.
WechosetheCCVIforourassessmentbecauseitisfreelyavailable,relativelytransparentand
replicable,andwidelyused.Thesequalitiesshouldhelpfacilitatefutureupdatesofthe
assessmentasadditionalinformationbecomesavailable,aswellascomparisonofresultsto
otherassessmentsbasedontheCCVI.TheCCVIalsohighlightsthespeciessensitivitiesthat
contributetovulnerability,offeringcriticalinformationtoguidefutureadaptationefforts.
Tomaximizeefficiencyandallowassessmentofasmanyspeciesaspossible,wereliedheavily
onexistingdatabasesofspeciescharacteristicsandclimatesensitivities,ratherthangathering
informationfromtheprimaryliterature,anddrewfromafewprimarysources(e.g.,
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
NatureServeExplorer,ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase).Detailedmethodsanddata
sourcesaredescribedbelow.
2.2 Species and Habitats Selection
WeworkedwiththeStillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesDepartmenttospecifythelevelof
priorityforassessmentofspeciesandhabitats(i.e.,high,medium,orlow)basedontheir
importancetotheTribe.Assignedprioritieswerebasedoncurrent,historic,and/oranticipated
futureuseofspeciesandhabitatsbytheTribe,andreflectedbotheconomicandcultural
values.Dataavailabilityandperceivedadaptivecapacityofspeciesorhabitatswerenot
factoredintothisevaluation.
Thefinallistofpriorityspeciesandhabitatstargetedforassessmentincluded96individual
speciesand10habitattypes.Afulllistofspeciesandhabitatsandthetypeofassessment
providedforeachcanbefoundintheResults(Section3.1).
2.3 Assessment Areas
BasedontheinformationneedsoftheTribe,weanalyzedspeciesandhabitatsatoneoftwo
scales.Forthemajorityofspeciesandhabitats,weassessedclimatechangevulnerabilityatthe
scaleoftheStillaguamishWatershed.WedefinedthewatershedextentbasedonaGISlayer
providedbytheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology(Figure1a).
(b)
(a)
Figure 1. Assessment Areas. Speciesandhabitatswereassessedatoneoftwoscales:a)the
Stillaguamishwatershed,andb)theTribe’scededarea.
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WeassessedfourspeciesatthelargerscaleoftheTribe’scededarea.Wedefinedtheceded
areaextentbasedonaGISlayerprovidedbytheWashingtonDepartmentofFishandWildlife
(Figure1b).
2.4 Quantitative Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
i. NatureServe CCVI
WeusedtheNatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI)1toquantitativelyassess
climatechangevulnerabilityforthosespeciesandhabitatsforwhichadequatedatawere
available.TheCCVItoolusesprojectedtemperatureandmoisturedata,speciesrangedata,and
specieslifehistoryinformationtoestimatespecies’directandindirectclimateexposureand
climatesensitivity,ultimatelyproducinganumericalsumquantifyingaspecies’vulnerabilityto
projectedclimatechange(Youngetal.2011;Figure2).
Directclimateexposurewasevaluatedbycalculatingtheproportionofeachspeciesrangethat
issubjecttodifferentlevelsofprojectedchangeintemperatureandmoisture.Indirectclimate
exposureandspeciessensitivitywereevaluatedusingasuiteof16variables(Table2).2Each
variablewasevaluatedautonomouslyandgivenacategoricalrankingclassificationdefinedby
NatureServe(Youngetal.2011).The7categoriesinclude:
(1)GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
(2)IncreaseVulnerability
(3)SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
(4)Neutral
(5)SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
(6)DecreaseVulnerability
(7)Unknown
Morethanonecategoricalrankingcanbeselectedtocaptureuncertaintyregardingaspecies
sensitivityorindirectclimateexposure.
Directandindirectclimateexposureandspeciessensitivitiesareusedtocalculateanindex
score,whichisthenconvertedtooneofsixpossiblevulnerabilitycategories,basedon
thresholdvalues(Youngetal.2011):
(1)ExtremelyVulnerable:Abundanceand/orrangeextentwithingeographicalarea
assessedisextremelylikelytosubstantiallydecreaseordisappear.
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Release2.1
ThoughtheCCVIincludes20factors,wedidnotinclude4factorsfallingundertheheadingof“Documented
responsetoclimatechange”duetolackofreadilyavailabledata.
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(2)HighlyVulnerable:Abundanceand/orrangeextentwithingeographicalarea
assessedislikelytodecreasesignificantly.
(3)ModeratelyVulnerable:Abundanceand/orrangeextentwithingeographicalarea
assessedislikelytodecrease.
(4)NotVulnerable/PresumedStable:Availableevidencedoesnotsuggestthat
abundanceand/orrangeextentwithinthegeographicalareaassessedwillchange
substantially,actualrangeboundariesmaychange.
(5)NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely:Availableevidencesuggeststhatabundance
and/orrangeextentwithingeographicalareaassessedislikelytoincrease.
(6)InsufficientEvidence
Finally,followingeachspecies’vulnerabilityclassification,thetoolusesaMonteCarlo
simulationtodeterminehowuncertaintyinscoringindividualfactorsmightaffectconfidencein
speciesinformation.Confidenceestimatesforvulnerabilityclassificationsrangefromlowto
veryhigh.
Figure 2. Inputs to the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) (fromYoungetal.
2011). TheCCVImeasuresclimatechangevulnerabilitybasedondirectexposuretolocalclimatechange
(e.g.,changesintemperatureandmoisture),indirectclimateexposure(e.g.,sealevelrise),andspecies
sensitivityfactors(e.g.,dispersalcapacity).Theproductsofexposureandsensitivitiesgenerate
subscores,whicharesummedtogenerateaspecies’overallvulnerabilityscore.
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
ii. Data Sources and Climate Scenarios
CCVIassessmentrequireshistoricandprojectedfuturetemperatureandprecipitationdatafor
thestudyareas;spatialdatalayersoftheprojectedsealevelrise,speciesdistributions,andthe
wildland-urbaninterface;andinformationonspecieslifehistories(Table1).Inaddition,the
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesstaffprovidedlocalinformationfromtheStillaguamish
watershedandtheTribe’scededareatosupplementavailablelifehistoryinformation.
Table1.PrimarydatatypesusedinCCVIanalysis.
Data Type
TemperatureProjections
MoistureProjections
Source
ClimateWizard(ClimateWizard.org)
ClimateWizard(ClimateWizard.org)
HistoricTemperature
ClimateWizard(ClimateWizard.org/NatureServe)
HistoricMoisture
ClimateWizard(ClimateWizard.org/NatureServe)
SeaLevelRise
NOAA(http://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/)
Wildland-UrbanInterface
TheWildlandUrbanInterface
http://silvis.forest.wisc.edu/maps/wui_main
IUCN(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/spatial-data);
StreamNet(http://www.streamnet.org/data/interactive-maps-and-gisdata/);EncyclopediaofPugetSound
(http://www.eopugetsound.org/maps)
NatureServeExplorer(http://explorer.natureserve.org/);Sensitivity
Database(http://climatechangesensitivity.org/);TheBirdsofNorth
AmericaOnline(http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species);USDAForest
Service(http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/);AmphibiaWeb
(http://amphibiaweb.org/search/index.html);StillaguamishTribe
NaturalResourceStaff(personalcommunication)
SpeciesDistributions
SpeciesLifeHistory
WecalculatedCCVIscoresfortwotimehorizons:the2050s(2040-2069)andthe2080s(20702099).WeusedClimateWizard(Girvetzetal.2009)togeneratedownscaledpredicted
temperatureandmoisturechangesforbothtimehorizons(relativetothehistorical1961-1990
baselineaverage)acrosstheStillaguamishwatershedandtheTribe’scededarea.Wegenerated
projectionsforeachtimehorizonusingtwogreenhousegasscenariosfromtheIPCCFourth
Assessment:A1BandA2(Nakicenovicetal.2000).3Greenhousegasscenariosweredeveloped
byclimatemodelingcentersforuseinmodelingglobalandregionalclimateimpacts.TheA1B
scenarioisamediumemissionsscenario,whileA2assumesthatemissionsremainhighand
continuetoincreasethroughthe21stcentury.ClimateWizardusesthepreviousarchiveof
globalmodelprojections,describedinthe2007IPCCreport(IPCC2007).Theprojectionsused
inthemorerecent2013IPCCreport(IPCC2013),whichmakeuseofthenewergreenhousegas
scenarios("RepresentativeConcentrationPathways,”orRCPs),havenotyetbeenintegrated
intothetool.AdiscussionofhowtheA1BandA2scenarioscomparetoRCPsscenarioscanbe
foundintheaccompanyingClimateDriversReport(ClimateImpactsGroup2015).
3
Usinga16-modelensembleaverage.
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
WecalculatedprojectedchangesinmoistureusingtheHamonAET:PETmoisturemetric
(Hamon1961),whichincorporatestemperatureandprecipitationinformationthrougharatio
ofactualevapotranspiration(AET)andpotentialevapotranspiration(PET).Thismetrictakes
totaldaylighthoursandsaturatedvaporpressureintoconsideration.However,itdoesnot
accountforwater-holdingcapacity,effectofsnowpackonwateravailability,orvegetationtype
(Youngetal.2011).ForallCCVIcalculations,weusedasingleestimateoffuturemoisture
providedbyClimateWizard,whichprojectsHamonAET:PETannuallyfor2040to2069,using
theA1Bscenario(projectionsusingtheA2scenarioarenotavailable).4
Climateprojectionswereclassifiedusingacontinuousbinningstructuredefinedby
NatureServe(Youngetal.2011).The5temperaturebinsinclude:
(1)>5.5°F(3.1°C)warmer
(2)5.1-5.5°F(2.8-3.1°C)warmer
(3)4.5-5.0°F(2.5-2.7°C)warmer
(4)3.9-4.4°F(2.2-2.4°C)warmer
(5)<3.9°F(2.2°C)warmer
MoisturebinsrepresentthepredictedannualchangeinHamonAET:PETmoisturemetric,20402069(basedonmediumemissionsscenarioA1B3).Theyexpressapercentchange,with
negativevaluesindicatingnetdrying.Moisturebinsinclude:
(1)<-0.119
(2)-0.097-(-0.119)
(3)-0.074-(-0.096)
(4)-0.051-(-0.073)
(5)-0.028-(-0.050)
(6)>-0.028
iii. Data Preparation
Weperformedabilinearre-interpolationoftheclimatedatausedinthisassessment,toreduce
theirresolutionfrom4kmand12km(forhistoricalandprojectedclimatedata,respectively)to
1km.5Thisallowedforbetteralignmentofthedatawiththestudyarea,andamore
appropriateresolutionforwatershed-scaleanalysis.
Wealsoclippedrange-widespeciesdistributionlayerstotheStillaguamishwatershedusinga
mapdevelopedbytheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology,ortotheTribe’scededareausinga
4
th
IPCC4 AssessmentmediumemissionsscenarioA1B,16-modelensembleaverage.
Re-interpolationcompletedfortemperatureprojections,moistureprojections,historicthermaldata,andhistoric
hydrologicaldata,
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mapdevelopedbytheWashingtonDepartmentofFishandWildlife.Thisensuredthatthe
vulnerabilityassessmentwasconductedonlyfortheportionofthespecies’rangethatoccurs
withinthewatershedorcededarea.Relevantdatalayerswereoverlaidonclippedrangemaps
todeterminethelevelofexposuretodirectandindirecteffectsofclimatechangewithinthe
watershedorcededarea(Table2).
2.5 Qualitative Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
i. Species
SeveralspeciescouldnotbequantitativelyassessedwiththeCCVIduetolackofspeciesrange
data.Forthesespecies,wequalitativelyassessedtheirclimatesensitivitywithinthe
StillaguamishwatershedusingsensitivityfactorsincludedintheCCVI,andhighlightedthose
factorsexpectedtohaveastronginfluenceontheirvulnerability.
ii. Habitats
WedidnotusetheCCVItoassesstheclimatechangevulnerabilityofhabitats.Instead,we
estimatedtherelativeclimatechangevulnerability(low,moderate,orhigh)ofhabitatsbased
ontheirclimatechangesensitivityandprojectedexposuretoclimatechangewithinthe
Stillaguamishwatershed.SensitivityvaluesweretakenfromtheClimateChangeSensitivity
Database(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailable,on-linedatabasethat
summarizesinformationfrompeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge.
ClimateChangeSensitivityrankingsinthedatabaseweredeterminedbyhabitatexperts
engagedthroughregionalworkshopsand/orandindependentwork.Thisincluded
approximately300expertswithadiversityofbackgrounds,expertise,andaffiliations6;allheld
advancedgraduatedegreesinecology,forestry,orbiology.Allspeciesandhabitatprofileswere
completedbetween2009and2012.
Throughaseriesofexpertworkshopsandindividualassessments,expertsidentifiedthe
sensitivitiesofspeciesandhabitatstoclimatechangebyansweringaseriesofquestionsrelated
tonumerousclimatechangesensitivityfactors,detailsofwhichcanbefoundonline.7Foreach
ofthesensitivityfactors,expertsprovidedbothasensitivityscorerangingfromone(low
sensitivity)toseven(highsensitivity)andaconfidencescorerangingfromone(lowconfidence)
tofive(highconfidence).Confidencescoresrepresentexperts’certaintyabouttheirsensitivity
score.Individualscoreswereaveragedwhenmorethanoneexpertassessedthesensitivityofa
6
U.S.ForestService,U.S.NationalParkService,U.S.FishandWildlifeService,U.S.BureauofLandManagement,
WashingtonDepartmentofNaturalResources,WashingtonDepartmentofFishandWildlife,OregonDepartment
ofFishandWildlife,IdahoDepartmentofFishandGame,UniversityofWashington,UniversityofIdaho,Idaho
CooperativeFishandWildlifeResearchUnit,WashingtonNaturalHeritageProgram,CanadianForestService,Parks
Canada,TheNatureConservancy,NationalWildlifeFederation,andanumberofTribesandFirstNations.
7
climatechangesensitivity.org
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Table 2. Indirect climate exposure and species sensitivity factors.
Variable
Description
i.IndirectClimateExposureFactors
SeaLevelRise
Effectsofsealevelrise
NaturalBarriers
Geographicalfeaturesofthelandscapethatmayrestrictaspecies
fromnaturallydispersingtonewareas
AnthropogenicBarriers
Featuresofanthropogenicallyalteredlandscapes(urbanor
agriculturalareas,roads,dams,culverts)thatmayhinderdispersalfor
terrestrialandaquaticspecies
ClimateChangeMitigation Effectsoflandusechangesresultingfromhumanresponsesto
climatechange(seawalldevelopment,windfarm,biofuelproduction)
ii.SpeciesSensitivityFactors
Dispersal/Movement
HistoricalThermalNiche
Abilityofspeciestodisperseormigrateacrossthelandscapetonew
locationsasconditionschangeovertime
Exposuretotemperaturevariationoverthepast50years
PhysiologicalThermalNiche Dependenceoncoolorcoldhabitatswithintheassessmentarea
HistoricalHydrological
Niche
Exposuretoprecipitationvariationoverthepast50years
PhysiologicalHydrological
Niche
Dependenceonaspecificprecipitationorhydrologicregime
Disturbance
Dependenceonaspecificdisturbanceregimelikelytobeimpactedby
climatechange
DependenceonIce/Snow
Dependenceonice,ice-edge,orsnow-coverhabitats
RestrictiontoUncommon
GeologicFeatures
Dependenceonspecificsubstrates,soils,orphysicalfeaturessuchas
caves,cliffs,orsanddunes
HabitatCreation
Dependenceonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat
DietaryVersatility
(AnimalsOnly)Breadthoffoodtypesconsumed;dietaryspecialistsvs.
generalists
PollinatorVersatility
(PlantsOnly)Numberofpollinatorspecies
PropaguleDispersal
Dependenceonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal
InterspecificInteractions
Otherinterspecificinteractionsnotincludingdiet,pollination,and
habitatcreation
GeneticVariation8
Measuredgeneticvariation(high,medium,low)
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GeneticBottlenecks Occurrenceofbottlenecksinrecentevolutionaryhistory
PhenologicalResponse
Phenologicalresponsetochangingseasonaltemperatureand
precipitationdynamics
8
Thegeneticvariationmetricwasexcludedfromouranalysisduetothechallengesanduncertaintiesassociated
withcategorizingthisfactorinacategoricalframeworkofhigh,medium,andlow.
9
Giventhelackofinformationongeneticvariation,speciesknowntohaveexperiencedageneticbottleneck
(populationreductionandsubsequentrebound)werecategorizedasSomewhatIncreaseorIncreaseVulnerability.
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speciesorhabitat.Expertsalsoprovidedmoredetailedcommentsandcitationswhenthey
wereavailable.Toqualitativelyestimatehabitatvulnerability,wealsoconsideredtheexposure
ofhabitatstoclimatechangewithintheStillaguamishwatershed,usingthesametemperature
andmoisturedatausedintheCCVIanalysis.Specifically,weusedtemperatureprojectionsfor
the2050sundertheA2emissionsscenario,andtheHamonAET:PETMoisturemetric(Hamon
1961).
2.6 Assessing Impacts of Additional Projected Climatic Changes
NatureServe’sCCVIdoesnotconsiderallofthedirectandindirectclimaticchangeslikelyto
influencethevulnerabilityofspecieswithintheStillaguamishwatershedandcededarea.We
thereforeincludedforbothCCVIandqualitativelyassessedspeciesanadditional,brief
assessmentofhowtheymightbeimpactedbyrelevantprojectedchangesinphysical
conditionsthatarenotconsideredintheCCVI.Thesechangesaredescribedindetailinthe
climaticdriversassessmentthataccompaniesthisreport,10andinclude:
• Longerfreeze-freeperiod
• Increaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°F
• Decreaseinthenumberofnightsbelow10°F
• Increaseinthefrequencyandintensityofheavyrainfallevents
• Declineintheaveragesnowpackdepth(andsnowwaterequivalent)
• Earliertimingofpeakspringsnowmelt
• Increasesinproportionofwinterprecipitationfallingasraininsteadofsnow
• Changesinspring,summer,andwinterstreamflows
• Increasesinwinterfloodrisk
• Increasesinfreshwaterandmarinewatertemperatures
• Increasedrisksoflandslides
• Increasedsedimentationinthemarineenvironment
• Increasedareaburnedfromwildfires
• Increasedexposuretopestsanddiseases
• Increasedcoastalflooding
• Oceanacidification
Wedidnotincludeaseparatesectiononadditionalclimaticfactorsinourassessmentsof
habitats,astheirclimatesensitivityrankings7consideredabroaderrangeoffactorsthanthose
consideredbytheCCVI,includingmanyofthoselistedabove.
10
PrimaryClimaticDriversofChangeinNaturalResourcesfortheStillaguamishTribeinthePugetSound.2015.
ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington.
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3.RESULTS
3.1 Species and Habitats Assessed
Wewereabletoacquiresufficientdatatoanalyze40speciesusingNatureServe’sCCVI(Table
3).Another17speciesorgroupsofspecies(e.g.,bivalves,foragefish)hadinsufficientrange
datatosupportacompletequantitativeanalysisusingtheCCVIandwereassessedqualitatively
usingsensitivityinformationavailableintheliterature(Table4).Wewereunabletocomplete
eitheraquantitativeorqualitativeassessmentforanotherthreepriorityspeciesduetolackof
informationintheliterature(Table5).Timeconstraintsalsopreventedquantitativeor
qualitativeanalysisforanadditional19lowerpriorityspecies(Table6).Wecompleted
qualitativeassessmentsforall10habitats(Table7).
3.2 Temperature and Moisture Projections
Wegeneratedasingleprojectionoffuturemeanannualmoisture,theHamonAET:PET
moisturemetric,whichwascalculatedfor2040to2069,usingtheA1Bscenario.Future
projectionsofthemoisturemetricsuggestarelativelyuniformdecreaseinannualmoisturefor
theStillaguamishwatershedbymid-century(Fig.3a).TheTribe’scededareaexhibitsgreater
spatialvariabilityinchangesinmeanannualmoisture(Fig.3b),withlittlechangeseenathigher
elevationsintheCascadeRange(particularlytheNorthCascades),anddeclinesseeninmany
lowlandareas.
Temperatureprojectionsweregeneratedforthe2050sand2080sforbothA1BandA2
scenarios.IntheStillaguamishwatershed,littledifferenceisseenbetweentemperature
projectionsundertheA1BandA2scenariosforthe2050s(3.7-3.9°Fand3.3-3.5°F,
respectively;Fig.4).Indeed,projectedtemperaturechangesforthe2050sforthetwo
emissionsscenariosanalyzedfellwithinthesameCCVIbinfortemperatureexposure(the
lowestbin:<3.9°F(2.2°C)warmer).FortheStillaguamishwatershedinthe2080s,greater
differenceisseenbetweentheA1BandA2scenarios(5.5-5.7°Fand6.4-6.7°F,respectively;
Fig.4).However,thesestillfallintothesameCCVIbinfortemperatureexposure(thehighest
bin:>5.5°F(3.1°C)warmer).
FortheTribe’scededarea,greaterdifferencesintemperatureprojectionsforthe2050sare
observedfortheA1BandA2scenarios(3.5-4.1°Fand3.2-3.7°F,respectively;Fig.4).These
differencesresultedintheprojectedchangesfortheA1Bscenariofallingintothetwolowest
CCVIbinsfortemperatureexposure(<3.9°F(2.2°C)warmerand3.9-4.4°F(2.2-2.4°C)
warmer),whilechangesfortheA2scenariofellintoonlythelowestbin(<3.9°F(2.2°C)
warmer).FortheTribe’scededareainthe2080s,evengreaterdifferenceisseenbetweenthe
A1BandA2scenarios(5.2-5.8°Fand5.9-6.8°F,respectively;Fig.4).ChangesfortheA1B
scenarioforthe2080sfellintothetwohighestCCVIbinsfortemperatureexposure(5.1-5.5°F
(2.8-3.1°C)and>5.5°F(3.1°C)warmer),whilechangesfortheA2scenariofellintoonlythe
highestbin(>5.5°F(3.1°C)warmer).
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Table 3. Species assessed using NatureServe’s CCVI. Boldnamesindicatespeciesthatwere
identifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessment.Nameswithanasteriskwereassessedatthe
scaleoftheTribe’scededareas;allotherspecieswereassessedatthescaleoftheStillaguamish
watershed.
CommonName
LatinName
CommonName
LatinName
AmericanBeaver
AmericanPipit
Castorcanadensis
Anthusrubescens
MountainLion
NorthernFlyingSquirrel
Pumaconcolor
Glaucomyssabrinus
NorthernGoshawk
NorthernPintail*
Accipitergentilis
Anasacuta
OliveSidedFlycatcher
OregonSpottedFrog
PigeonGuillemont
PileatedWoodpecker
Red-BreastedSapsucker
Contopuscooperi
Ranapretiosa
Cepphuscolumba
Dryocopuspileatus
Sphyrapicusruber
Cerorhinca
monocerata
Dendragapus
fuliginosus
Strixoccidentalis
caurina
Oncorhynchus
mykiss
Catharusustulatus
Black-TailedDeer
Brant
Bufflehead
BullTrout
CanadaGoose
Haliaeetus
leucocephalus
Pluvialissquatarola
Odocoileushemionus
columbianus
Brantabernicla
Bucephalaalbeola
Salvelinusconfluentus
Brantacanadensis
CanadaLynx*
Lynxcanadensis
RhinocerosAuklet
Cassin'sFinch
Haemorhouscassinii
Oncorhynchus
tshawytscha
SootyGrouse
CohoSalmon
CommonGoldeneye
Gray-CrownedRosyFinch
Oncorhynchuskisutch
Bucephalaclangula
Steelhead
Swainson'sThrush
Leucostictetephrocotis
TrumpeterSwan
GreatBlueHeron
Ardeaherodias
WesternGrebe
GreaterScaup
GrizzlyBear
Aythyamarila
Ursusarctoshorribilis
Brachyramphus
marmoratus
Oreamnosamericanus
WesternPondTurtle*
WesternSandpiper
Cygnusbuccinator
Aechmophorus
occidentalis
Actinemys
marmorata
Calidrismauri
Wilson'sWarbler
Wolverine
Cardellinapusilla
Gulogulo
BaldEagle
BlackBelliedPlover
ChinookSalmon
MarbledMurrelet
MountainGoat*
SpottedOwl
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Table 4. Species qualitatively assessed due to inadequate data for CCVI analysis. Bold
namesindicatespeciesthatwereidentifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessment.
Common Name
Latin Name
Common Name
AlaskaBlueberry
GreenSturgeon
AlaskaCedar
Bivalves11
BogCranberry
BlackOystercatcher
Vacciniumalaskaense
Cupressusnootkatensis
/Chamaecyparis
nootkatensis
Bivalvia
Vacciniumoxycoccos
Haematopusbachmani
Cattail
Elk
EvergreenHuckleberry
Typhalatifolia
Cervuselaphus
Vacciniumovatum
RedHuckleberry
WesternRedcedar
WesternToad
ForageFish12
-
WhiteSturgeon
NorthernShoveler
PacificJumpingMouse
PacificLamprey
PurpleMartin
Latin Name
Acipenser
medirostris
Anasclypeata
Zapustrinotatus
Lampetratridentata
Prognesubis
Vaccinium
parvifolium
Thujaplicata
Anaxyrusboreas
Acipenser
transmontanus
Table 5. Species for which neither CCVI nor qualitative assessment was completed due
to lack of data. NoneofthesespecieswasidentifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessment.
Common Name
Latin Name
Common Name
Latin Name
Oncorhynchusclarki
CoastalCutthroat
clarki
DungenessCrab
Cancermagister
Pacifasticus
Crayfish
leniusculus,
11
Thegroup”bivalves”includeseasternsoftshellclam,oysters/mussels,geoduck,pacificoyster,manilaclams,
butterclams,foolishmussel,purplevarnishclam,nativelittlenecks,cockles,Olympicoyster,Macomaclams,horse
clams,andfreshwatermussels.
12
Thegroup“foragefish”includeslance,surfsmelt,andpacificherring
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Table 6. Species for which no assessment was completed due to lack of time. Noneof
thesespecieswasidentifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessment.
Common Name
Latin Name
Common Name
Latin Name
AquaticInsects
-
Mallard
Anasplatyrhynchos
BitterRoot
Lewisiarediviva
MasonBee
Osmia
Oncorhynchus
BulbPlants
-
PinkSalmon
gorbuscha
Sambucus
BumbleBee
Bombus
RedElderberry
racemosa
ChumSalmon
Oncorhynchusketa
RedRockCrab
Cancerproductus
Gadwall
Marecastrepera
RiverLamprey
Lampetraayresii
Hazelnut
Corylusavellana
SockeyeSalmon
Oncorhynchusnerka
Setophaga
LabradorTea
Ledumglandulosum
Townsend’sWarbler
townsendi
Sceloporus
LesserScaup
Aythyaaffinis
WesternFenceLizard
occidentalis
Limnodromus
Long-BilledDowitcher
scolopaceus
WetlandWapato
Sagittarialatifolia
Table 7. Habitats qualitatively assessed based on available climate sensitivity data. Bold
namesindicatehabitatsthatwereidentifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessment.
Habitat Type
Marine:OpenWater
Marine:Nearshore,GravelBeaches
Estuary:SaltMarsh,Eelgrass,MudFlat
FreshwaterAquatic
Wetland:ForestedWetland
Habitat Type
Riparian
OpenMeadow
Forest
OldGrowthForest
Montane:Alpine,Subalpine,Meadow,Talus
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Figure 3. Projected changes in mean annual moisture by mid-century, fora)theStillaguamish
watershedandb)cededarea.ForallCCVIcalculations,weusedasingleprojectionoffuturemoisture:the
HamonAET:PETmoisturemetriccalculatedfor2040to2069,usingtheA1Bscenarioanda16modelensemble.
Figure 4. Projected changes in mean annual temperature for the Stillaguamish watershed.
Generatedforthe2050sand2080sundertheA1BandA2greenhousegasscenarios,usinganensembleof
16globalclimatemodels.
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Figure 5. Projected changes in mean annual temperature for the Tribe’s ceded area. Generated
forthe2050sand2080sundertheA1BandA2greenhousegasscenarios,usinganensembleof16global
climatemodels.
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3.3 CCVI Analysis Results
Inthissection,weprovideasummaryofanalysisresultsforthe40speciesanalyzedusingthe
CCVI(Table8).DetailedresultsforeachspeciescanbefoundinAppendices1,2,and3.
Appendix1includesCCVIindexscoresandsensitivitysub-scoresforeachspecies.Appendix2
liststheinformationgapsencounteredforeachspecies.Appendix3includesquickreference
factsheetsforeachspeciesdescribingtheirCCVIresults,primaryclimatesensitivities,abrief
assessmentofpotentialadditionalimpactsfromclimaticchangesnotconsideredbytheCCVI,
andkeyinformationgaps.
i. CCVI results for 2050s
CCVIresultssuggestthatmostspeciesarepresumedstablebythe2050s,withsomebird
speciesexpectedtoseeincreases(Table8,Fig.6&7).However,severalspeciesareexpectedto
bemoderatelyvulnerable(e.g.,salmonids,westerngrebe)orhighlyvulnerable(e.g.,Canada
lynx)bythe2050s.Underlyingclimaticsensitivitiesvarybytaxonomicgroup(Fig.8).
Becauseprojectedtemperaturechangesforthe2050swithintheStillaguamishwatershedfell
withinthesameCCVIbinfortemperatureexposure(<3.9°F(2.2°C)warmer)underboththe
A1BandA2scenarios,speciesanalyzedatthewatershedscalereceivedidenticalCCVIscores
forbothscenarios(Table8).However,atthescaleoftheTribe’scededarea,Canadalynxis
expectedtobehighlyvulnerableundertheA1Bscenariobutmoderatelyvulnerableunderthe
A2scenario(Table8),whilemountaingoatandwesternpondturtleareexpectedtobe
moderatelyvulnerableundertheA1BscenariobutstableundertheA2scenario(Table8).This
isbecauseslightlywarmertemperatureprojectionsunderA1Bresultedinportionsofthe
Tribe’scededareafallingintothehigherCCVIbinfortemperatureexposure.
IncorporationoflocalknowledgefromTribalNaturalResourcesstaffresultedinseveral
changestothe2050ssensitivityscoresforthemarbledmurrelet,pigeonguillemot,spotted
owl,andwolverine.Thesechangesincluded:dietsensitivitychangedfromsomewhatincrease
vulnerabilitytoincreasevulnerabilityforthemarbledmurrelet;dietsensitivitychangedfrom
neutraltosomewhatincreasevulnerabilityforthepigeonguillemot;dietsensitivitychanged
fromneutraltosomewhatincreasevulnerability,anddisturbanceregimeshiftedfrom
somewhatincreasevulnerabilitytoincreasevulnerabilityforthespottedowl;and
anthropogenicbarrierschangedfromneutraltosomewhatincreasevulnerabilityforwolverine.
Ultimately,noneofthesechangesresultedinchangestothefinalCCVIscoresforthesespecies.
ii. CCVI results for 2080s
CCVIresultssuggestthatmanyspeciesmaybecomehighlyorextremelyvulnerableby2080
(Table8,Fig.9);thisincludesalloftheamphibians,reptiles,andaquaticspeciesassessed.
However,manybirdsareestimatedtoremainstableorseeincreases.Forspeciesthat
experienceincreasedvulnerabilitybythe2080s,underlyingsensitivitiesremainlargely
unchangedfromthoseseeninthe2050s(Fig.10),withtheexceptionofsealevelrise,which
becomesacontributingfactortovulnerabilityforseveralbirdspecies(Fig.10).
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Becauseprojectedtemperaturechangesforthe2080swithintheStillaguamishwatershed
againfellwithinthesameCCVIbinfortemperatureexposure(>5.5°F(3.1°C)warmer)under
boththeA1BandA2scenarios,speciesanalyzedatthewatershedscaleagainreceivedidentical
CCVIscoresforbothscenarios.Becausetherangesofspeciesanalyzedatthescaleoftheceded
areafellwithinasinglebin(>5.5°F(3.1°C)warmer)forthe2080sunderboththeA1BandA2
scenarios,they,too,receivedidenticalCCVIscoresforbothscenarios.
Forthe2080s,incorporationoflocalknowledgefromTribalNaturalResourcesstaffagain
resultedinchangestosensitivityscoresformarbledmurrelet,pigeonguillemot,spottedowl,
andwolverine.Unlikethe2050s,theseresultedinchangestofinal2080sCCVIscoresforthe
spottedowlandthemarbledmurrelet.Forthespottedowl,dietsensitivitychangedfrom
neutraltosomewhatincreasevulnerability,anddisturbanceregimechangedfromsomewhat
increasevulnerabilitytoincreasevulnerability.Thisresultedinanincreaseinthespottedowl’s
finalCCVIscorefrommoderatelyvulnerabletohighlyvulnerable.Forthemarbledmurrelet,
dietsensitivitychangedfromsomewhatincreasevulnerabilitytoincreasevulnerability.This
resultedinanincreaseinthemarbledmurrelet’sfinalCCVIscorefrommoderatelyvulnerable
tohighlyvulnerable.
3.4 Incorporating Additional Relevant Information
Almostallspecieswereconsideredlikelytobeaffectedbyclimaticfactorsnotincludedinthe
CCVI.Whilewedidnotadjustvulnerabilityrankingstoreflectthis,thesefactorsshouldbe
consideredalongwiththeCCVIrankingstobetterunderstandspecies’vulnerability.Insome
cases,theseadditionalfactorsmaypresentthemostimportantimpactsonspecies,andwill
thusbecriticaltoguidingadaptationeffortstoaddresspotentialnegativeeffects.These
additionalfactorsaredescribedforeachspeciesinthefactsheetsprovidedinAppendix3.
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Table 8. CCVI rankings for species assessed using NatureServe’s CCVI. Boldnamesindicatespeciesthatwereidentifiedbythe
Tribeasahighpriorityforassessment.NameswithanasteriskindicatespeciesthatwereanalyzedatthescaleoftheTribe’scededarea;all
otherspecieswereanalyzedatthescaleoftheStillaguamishwatershed.CCVIResultsKey:
ILIncreaseLikely,PSPresumedStable,MVModeratelyVulnerable,HVHighlyVulnerable,EVExtremelyVulnerable.
CommonName
ScientificName
Taxon
2050s
A1B
AmericanBeaver
AmericanPipit
BaldEagle
BlackBelliedPlover
Black-TailedDeer
Brant
Bufflehead
BullTrout
CanadaGoose
CanadaLynx*
Cassin'sFinch
ChinookSalmon
CohoSalmon
CommonGoldeneye
Gray-CrownedRosy-Finch
GreatBlueHeron
GreaterScaup
GrizzlyBear
MarbledMurrelet
MountainGoat*
MountainLion
NorthernFlyingSquirrel
NorthernGoshawk
NorthernPintail*
Castorcanadensis
Anthusrubescens
Haliaeetusleucocephalus
Pluvialissquatarola
Odocoileushemionuscolumbianus
Brantabernicla
Bucephalaalbeola
Salvelinusconfluentus
Brantacanadensis
Lynxcanadensis*
Haemorhouscassinii
Oncorhynchustshawytscha
Oncorhynchuskisutch
Bucephalaclangula
Leucostictetephrocotis
Ardeaherodias
Aythyamarila
Ursusarctoshorribilis
Brachyramphusmarmoratus
Oreamnosamericanus*
Pumaconcolor
Glaucomyssabrinus
Accipitergentilis
Anasacuta
Mammal
Bird
Bird
Bird
Mammal
Bird
Bird
Fish
Bird
Mammal
Bird
Fish
Fish
Bird
Bird
Bird
Bird
Mammal
Bird
Mammal
Mammal
Mammal
Bird
Bird
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
MV
PS
HV
IL
MV
MV
IL
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
MV
PS
PS
IL
PS
2050s
A2
2080s
A1B
2080s
A2
Confidence
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
MV
PS
MV
IL
MV
MV
IL
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
IL
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
MV
PS
PS
EV
PS
EV
PS
EV
EV
IL
MV
PS
PS
MV
HV
EV
PS
HV
IL
PS
PS
PS
PS
PS
MV
PS
PS
EV
PS
EV
PS
EV
EV
IL
MV
PS
PS
MV
HV
EV
PS
HV
IL
PS
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
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CommonName
ScientificName
Taxon
2050s
A1B
OliveSidedFlycatcher
OregonSpottedFrog
PigeonGuillemont
PileatedWoodpecker
Red-BreastedSapsucker
RhinocerosAuklet
SootyGrouse
SpottedOwl
Steelhead
Swainson'sThrush
TrumpeterSwan
WesternGrebe
WesternPondTurtle*
WesternSandpiper
Wilson'sWarbler
Wolverine
Contopuscooperi
Ranapretiosa
Cepphuscolumba
Dryocopuspileatus
Sphyrapicusruber
Cerorhincamonocerata
Dendragapusfuliginosus
Strixoccidentaliscaurina
Oncorhynchusmykiss
Catharusustulatus
Cygnusbuccinator
Aechmophorusoccidentalis
Actinemysmarmorata*
Calidrismauri
Cardellinapusilla
Gulogulo
Bird
Amphibian
Bird
Bird
Bird
Bird
Bird
Bird
Fish
Bird
Bird
Bird
Reptile
Bird
Bird
Mammal
IL
PS
PS
PS
IL
PS
IL
PS
MV
IL
PS
MV
MV
IL
IL
PS
2050s
A2
2080s
A1B
2080s
A2
Confidence
IL
PS
PS
PS
IL
PS
IL
PS
MV
IL
PS
MV
PS
IL
IL
PS
IL
HV
IL
PS
IL
PS
IL
HV
EV
IL
PS
HV
EV
IL
IL
EV
IL
HV
IL
PS
IL
PS
IL
HV
EV
IL
PS
HV
EV
IL
IL
EV
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
VH
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Number of Species
18
Extremely Vulnerable
16
Highly Vulnerable
14
Moderately Vulnerable
12
Presumed Stable
Increase Likely
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mammals (n=8)
Birds (n=26)
Aquatics (n=4)
Amphibians & Reptiles
(n=2)
Taxonomic Group
Number of Species
Figure 6. CCVI vulnerability rankings for the 2050s using a medium emissions scenario
(A1B), by taxonomic group.
18
Extremely Vulnerable
16
Highly Vulnerable
14
Moderately Vulnerable
12
Presumed Stable
10
Increase Likely
8
6
4
2
0
Mammals (n=8)
Birds (n=26)
Aquatics (n=4)
Amphibians & Reptiles
(n=2)
Taxonomic Group
Figure 7. CCVI vulnerability rankings for the 2050s using a high emissions scenario (A2),
by taxonomic group.
20
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Number of Species
30
25
Mammals (n=8)
20
Birds (n=26)
15
Aquatics (n=4)
10
Reptiles &
Amphibians (n=2)
5
0
Sensitivity Metrics
Figure 8. Climate sensitivities and indirect climatic exposures contributing to CCVI
rankings for the 2050s, by taxonomic group. Onlysensitivitiesthatincreasevulnerabilityare
shown(seeTable2forfulldescriptionsofsensitivityfactors).
14
12
Number of Species
Extremely Vulnerable
10
Highly Vulnerable
Moderately Vulnerable
8
Presumed Stable
Increase Likely
6
4
2
0
Mammals (n=8)
Birds (n=26)
Aquatics (n=4)
Amphibians & Reptiles
(n =2)
Taxonomic Group
Figure 9. CCVI vulnerability rankings for the 2080s, by taxonomic group. Resultsare
identicalforboththemedium(A1B)andhigh(A2)emissionsscenarios.
21
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30
Number of Species
25
Mammals (n=8)
20
Birds (n=26)
15
Aquatics (n=4)
10
Amphibians &
Reptiles (n=2)
5
rs
t.
al
Th
e
ys
rm
io
al
Th
H
is
er
to
ric ma
l
al
Ph Hy
d
ys
ro
io
H
yd
D
is
ro
tu
rb
an
ce
Ph
O
S
y
th
no
si
ca
er
w
lH
H
ab
ab
ita
i
t D tat
ep
en
d.
D
Bo iet
ttl
en
Ph eck
en
ol
og
y
is
Ph
H
D
is
pe
n
s
ga
tio
er
C
C
M
iti
rri
ri e
Ba
o
ar
th
r
N
An
at
.B
SL
R
rs
0
Sensitivity Metric
Figure 10. Climate sensitivities and indirect climatic exposures contributing to CCVI
rankings for the 2080s, by taxonomic group. Onlysensitivitiesthatincreasevulnerabilityare
shown(seeTable2forfulldescriptionsofsensitivityfactors).
3.5 Results of Qualitative Vulnerability Assessment
i. Species
Qualitativelyassessedspecies(Table4)didnotreceiveavulnerabilityranking,butratherwere
assessedforclimaticsensitivitiesthatmayinfluencetheirvulnerabilitytofutureclimatic
changes.AswithspeciesassessedusingtheCCVI,climaticsensitivitiesforqualitativelyassessed
speciesvariedindividualistically;detailsforeachspecies,includingprimaryclimaticsensitivities
andpotentialimpactsfromadditionalfactorsnotconsideredintheCCVI,canbefoundinthe
factsheetsprovidedinAppendix3.Particularlyformarinespecies(e.g.,bivalves,foragefish),
factorsnotconsideredintheCCVI(e.g.,increasingoceantemperaturesandacidification)may
bethegreatestcontributorstovulnerability.
ii. Habitats
Allhabitatswereassessedqualitativelybasedontheirsensitivityscores7andprojectedclimate
exposureforthe2050s,andgivenestimatedvulnerabilityrankings(low,moderate,orhigh;
Table9).Similartospeciesresults,habitatsvariedinwhichsensitivitiescontributedtotheir
vulnerability;detailsforeachhabitatcanbefoundinthefactsheetsprovidedinAppendix3.
Unlikeassessedspecies,nohabitatswereestimatedtoexperienceincreasesortobepresumed
stable;rather,allwereestimatedtobemoderatelytohighlyvulnerable.
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Table 9. Qualitative Assessment Results for Habitats. Boldnamesindicatehabitatsthatwere
identifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessment.Rankingcategories:Low,Moderate,High.
Habitat Type
Estuary:SaltMarsh,Eelgrass,MudFlat
Forest
FreshwaterAquatic
Marine:Nearshore,GravelBeaches
Marine:OpenWater
Montane:Alpine,Subalpine,Meadow,Talus
OldGrowthForest
OpenMeadow
Riparian
Wetland:ForestedWetland
Qualitative Vulnerability Ranking
ModeratetoHigh
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
High
Moderate
High
ModeratetoHigh
High
4.KEYFINDINGS
Here,wediscussthemainfindingsofouranalysis.WefirstreviewkeyCCVIfindingsforthe
2050sand2080s,highlightingtheprimarysensitivitiescontributingtovulnerabilityforeach
taxonomicgroup(mammals,birds,aquaticspecies,andamphibiansandreptiles).Wethen
discusskeyfindingsofourqualitativehabitatassessment.
4.1 Key CCVI Findings for the 2050s
Vulnerabilityindexscoresforthe2050srangedfromlikelytoexpandtohighlyvulnerable,with
themajorityofspeciesclassifiedasstableorlikelytoexpandbythe2050s(Fig.6,Fig.7).Two
sensitivityfactors,historicalthermalnicheandpresenceofanthropogenicbarriers,are
expectedtoincreasevulnerabilityacrossalltaxonomicgroups(Fig.8,Appendix1a).Because
specieswithintheStillaguamishwatershedandtheTribe’scededareahaveexperienced
relativelystableclimaticconditionsoverthepastfiftyyears,theyareexpectedtohave
relativelylowthermaltolerancestofuturetemperatureincreases.Significantanthropogenic
barriers(e.g.,highways,dams,andurbanareas)intheassessmentareaareexpectedto
increasespecies’vulnerabilitybyimpedingtheirabilitytomoveacrossthelandscapetotrack
shiftingareasofclimaticsuitability.Physiologicalthermalniche,physiologichydrologicniche,
disturbance,andnaturalbarriersarealsoexpectedtoincreasevulnerabilityacrossmost
taxonomicgroups(Fig.8,Appendix1a).
i. Mammals
Themajorityofmammalspeciesassessedareestimatedtoremainstablebythe2050s,with
twoexceptions.Canadalynxisestimatedtobehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechangebymid-
23
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centuryunderanA1Bemissionsscenario(Fig.6).13Canadalynxisphysiologicallyadaptedto
coldalpineandsubalpinehabitats(physiologicalthermalniche,Fig.8,Appendix1a),andalso
dependentonpersistentsnowpacklevels(dependenceonsnowcoverhabitats,Fig.8,Appendix
1a),whichareexpectedtodeclineastemperaturesincrease.Mountaingoatisalsoexpectedto
bemoderatelyvulnerabletoclimatechangebymid-centuryunderanA1Bemissionsscenario
(Fig.6).14Thisisbecausemountaingoatisphysiologicallyadaptedtocoldalpineandsubalpine
zones(physiologicalthermalniche,Fig.8,Appendix1a),andthusissensitivetoslightincreases
inairtemperature.
ii. Birds
Birdsarethesoletaxonomicgroupforwhichspecies(35%ofthebirdsassessed)areestimated
toexpandbythe2050s.Thisislargelyduetobirds’relativeinsensitivitytonaturaland
anthropogenicbarriers(Fig.8,Appendix1a),whichmayhelpthemtoshifttheirrangestonew
areasofclimaticsuitability.Despitethis,westerngrebeisexpectedtobemoderately
vulnerabletoclimatechangebythe2050s.Thisisbecauseofthewesterngrebe’sspecific
nestinghabitatrequirements(physiologicalhydrologicniche,Fig.8,Appendix1a)and
sensitivitytofluctuatingwaterlevels(disturbanceregime,Fig.8,Appendix1a).
iii. Aquatic Species
Allfourfishspeciesassessed(chinooksalmon,cohosalmon,bulltrout,andsteelhead)are
expectedtobemoderatelyvulnerabletoclimatechangebythe2050s.Thisisduetosalmonids’
narrowthermaltolerance(physiologicalthermalniche,Fig.8,Appendix1a)andsensitivityto
disturbance(disturbanceregime,Fig.8,Appendix1a).Risingstreamtemperaturesareexpected
tomorefrequentlyexceedthermaltolerancesofadultsalmonids,whichwillresultinincreased
stresslevelsandtheformationofthermalmigrationbarriers.Furthermore,floodingeventscan
scourstreambedsandremoveand/orcrushsalmonideggs,whilelowfloweventscanreduce
salmonidmobility,health,survival,andhabitatarea.
iv. Amphibians and Reptiles
WhiletheOregonspottedfrogisexpectedtobestableunderboththeA1BandA2emissions
scenarios,thewesternpondturtleisexpectedtobestableundertheA2emissionsscenariobut
moderatelyvulnerableundertheA1Bemissionsscenario.Thisisbecausethewesternpond
turtleissomewhatdependentonseasonalhydrologicregimes(physiologicalhydrologicalniche,
Fig.8,Appendix1b),whicharesensitivetoshiftsintemperatureandprecipitation,andis
sensitivetoanthropogenicbarrierssuchasroads(anthropogenicbarriers,Fig.8,Appendix1b)
thatmaylimititsdispersaltonewlyclimaticallysuitableareas.
13
Thisrankingiscalculatedusingtemperatureprojectionsforthe2050sundertheA1Bemissionsscenario(Fig.6).
NotethatthisspeciesisrankedasmoderatelyvulnerableundertheA2emissionsscenario.
14
Thisrankingiscalculatedusingtemperatureprojectionsforthe2050sundertheA1Bemissionsscenario(Fig.6).
NotethatthisspeciesisrankedaspresumedstableundertheA2emissionsscenario.
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4.2 Key CCVI Findings for the 2080s
Bythe2080smanyassessedspeciesareexpectedtobecomehighlyorextremelyvulnerableto
climatechange,includingallamphibiansandreptiles,andallaquaticspecies(Fig.9).Historical
thermalniche,presenceofanthropogenicbarriers,andphysiologicalthermalnicheagain
contributedtoincreasesinclimatevulnerabilityformosttaxonomicgroups(Fig.10,Appendix
1b),withsealevelriseadditionallycontributingtothevulnerabilityofseveralbirdspecies(Fig.
10,Appendix1b).
i. Mammals
Bythe2080s,thenorthernflyingsquirrelisexpectedtobehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechange,
andthreeadditionalmammalspecies–Canadalynx,mountaingoat,andwolverine–are
expectedtobeextremelyvulnerable.Eachoftheextremelyvulnerablespeciesisphysiologically
adaptedtocoldalpineandsubalpinezones(physiologicalthermalniche,Fig.10,Appendix1b),
andthusextremelysensitivetoincreasesinairtemperature.Inaddition,bothCanadalynxand
wolverinearestronglydependentonpersistentsnowpack(dependenceonsnow,Fig.10,
Appendix1b),whichisprojectedtodeclineastemperaturesincrease.
WithinWashingtonState,NatureServeclassifiesCanadalynxandwolverineascritically
imperiled,andmountaingoatasvulnerable.Theirconservationstatusandhighclimate
vulnerabilitiessuggestthatthesespeciesshouldbehighprioritiesforclimateadaptation
planning.
ii. Birds
Asinthe2050s,mostbirdspeciesareexpectedtoremainstableorincreasebythe2080s.
However,marbledmurrelet,spottedowl,andwesterngrebeareallexpectedtobehighly
vulnerable.Eachofthesespeciesisvulnerabletoshiftsindisturbanceregimes(disturbance
regimes,Fig.10,Appendix1b)suchasfiresandfloods,whichcannegativelyaffectspottedowl
andmarbledmurrelethabitat,andreducethereproductivesuccessofwesterngrebe.The
specializeddiets(diet,Fig.10,Appendix1b)ofthesethreespeciesarealsoexpectedtoincrease
theirvulnerability.Marbledmurreletishighlydependentonforagefish,andisknowntodefer
breedingduringfoodshortages.Theprimaryfoodsourceofthespottedowlisthenorthern
flyingsquirrel,whichiscurrentlyexperiencingpopulationdeclinesasaresultofforestthinning
throughoutthePacificNorthwest,andisalsoestimatedinthisassessmenttobecomehighly
vulnerablebythe2080s.Thewesterngrebeconsumesavarietyoffishes,butthesefood
sourcesmustbeincloseproximitytobreedingponds,asthisspeciesrarelyfliesoutsideof
migration.
WithinWashingtonState,NatureServeclassifiesspottedowlascriticallyimperiled,and
marbledmurreletandwesterngrebeasvulnerable.Theirconservationstatusandhighclimate
vulnerabilitiessuggestthatthesespeciesshouldbehighprioritiesforadaptationplanning.
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iii. Aquatic Species
Allfouroftheaquaticspeciesevaluated–chinooksalmon,cohosalmon,steelhead,andbull
trout–areexpectedtobeextremelyvulnerablebythe2080s(Fig.9).Theunderlyingcausesof
theirvulnerabilityarelargelyunchangedfromthe2050s,withthetwomaindriversbeing
narrowthermaltolerances(physiologicalthermalniche,Fig.10,Appendix1b)andsensitivityto
disturbances(e.g.,extremehighandlowflows)(disturbanceregime,Fig.10,Appendix1b).
iv. Amphibians and Reptiles
Bythe2080s,Oregonspottedfrogisestimatedtobehighlyvulnerableandwesternpondturtle
tobeextremelyvulnerable.Asinthe2050s,thetwomaindriversofvulnerabilityforwestern
pondturtleremaindependenceonseasonalhydrologicregimes(physiologicalhydrological
niche,Fig.10,Appendix1b)andanthropogenicbarrierssuchasroads(anthropogenicbarriers,
Fig.10,Appendix1b).
4.3 Key Findings for Habitats
Alltenhabitattypesevaluatedinthisassessmentareestimatedtobeatleastmoderately
vulnerabletoclimatechange(Table9)andfiveareestimatedtobehighlyvulnerable,including
forest,freshwateraquatic,wetland(forestedwetland),montane,andopenmeadowhabitats.
Eachoftheseisexpectedtobehighlyvulnerableduetotheirrelativelyhighclimatesensitivities
andprojectedexposurestofuturechangesintemperatureandprecipitation.
i. Forest
Increasingtemperaturesareexpectedtoextendthelengthofthegrowingseasonforwestern
Washingtonforests,andleadtochangesinforestspeciescomposition.Warmertemperatures
mayalsofacilitatethespreadofinvasivespecies,insects,anddiseases(includingthosenot
previouslyfoundinthisregion).Increasesinprecipitationcouldleadtoincreasedgrowthrates
andproductivityindrier,higherelevationforeststhatarecurrentlywater-limited,while
decreasesinprecipitationduringthegrowingseasoncouldleadtodecreasedgrowthrates
acrossmostforests.Increasesintemperatureanddrynessduringthegrowingseasonwilllikely
resultinincreasedfirerisk.Numerousassessedspeciesaredependentofforesthabitats,
includingCanadalynx,grizzlybear,mountaingoat,mountainlion,northernflyingsquirrel,
Pacificjumpingmouse,pileatedwoodpecker,northerngoshawk,marbledmurrelet,purple
martin,sootygrouse,spottedowl,swainson’sthrush,redhuckleberry,Alaskacedar,and
westernredcedar.
ii. Freshwater Aquatic
Increasingstreamtemperaturesareexpectedtonegativelyaffectspeciesadaptedtocool
freshwaterhabitats.Freshwateraquatichabitatsarealsoexpectedtoexperienceincreased
floodingasaresultofincreasedprecipitationduringthewetseason,andagreaterproportion
ofthatprecipitationfallingasraininsteadofsnow.Climate-drivenchangesinfireregimes,
insects,anddiseasecouldindirectlyimpactfreshwaterhabitatsbyaffectingneighboring
26
Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
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vegetation.Assessedspeciesthataredependentonfreshwateraquatichabitatsinclude
chinooksalmon,cohosalmon,steelhead,bulltrout,greensturgeon,whitesturgeon,andPacific
lamprey.
iii. Montane: Alpine, Subalpine, Meadow, Talus
Warmertemperaturesareexpectedtoincreasegrowthandproductivityinhigh-elevation
habitatsthatarecurrentlylimitedbycoldtemperatures,andtofacilitatetreeencroachment
intomeadowsandothersuitablealpineareas.Changesinsummerprecipitationcould
alternativelyleadtoincreasesinbiomassproductionandbiodiversityrates(ifprecipitation
increases),ordecreasedgrowthandhigherlikelihoodoffire(ifprecipitationdecreases).Less
snowinwintercouldleadtoalongergrowingseasonbutnegativelyaffectsnowdependent
species.Numerousassessedspeciesaredependentonmontanehabitats,includingpurple
martin,gray-crownedrosy-finch,wolverine,Canadalynx,grizzlybear,mountaingoat,elk,and
Pacificjumpingmouse.
iv. Open Meadow
Warmingtemperatureswillaffectdifferenttypesofmeadowsdifferently:wetandcool
meadowsmayseebiomassincreasesbutalsotreeencroachment,whilehotanddrymeadows
mayseedeclinesinbiomassproductionandoverallbiodiversity.Meadowswillbeespecially
sensitivetochangesinprecipitation,witheffectsvaryingbymeadowtypeandlocation.
Becauseoftheirrelativelysmallsize,meadowhabitatsmaybeespeciallysensitivetoindirect
effectsofclimatechange(e.g.,fire,flooding,wind,disease,pests).Assessedspeciesthatare
dependentonopenmeadowhabitatsincludeAmericanpipit,elk,mountaingoat,andPacific
jumpingmouse.
v. Wetland: Forested Wetland
Increasingtemperaturesmayresultinaccelerateddryingforsomewetlands,andmayleadto
mismatchesbetweenwhenspeciesrequirethesewetlandsseasonally(e.g.,timingof
reproductionormetamorphosis)andearlierdrying.Decliningprecipitationduringthedry
seasoncouldalsoleadtoearlierwetlanddryingandashorterwetseason.Assessedspecies
thataredependentonforestedwetlandsincludeOregonspottedfrog,westernpondturtle,
greatblueheron,greaterscaup,northernpintail,northernshoveler,bufflehead,andcommon
goldeneye.
5.LIMITATIONSOFTHECCVI
WhileNatureServe’sCCVIisawidelyusedandusefultool,ithasseverallimitations.First,there
areseveralclimatesensitivitiesknowntoinfluencevulnerabilitythatarenotaccountedforby
thisindex.Forexample,assessmentofmigratorybirdspeciesconsideredonlytheirsummer
ranges;thoughwewereabletoassesstheirvulnerabilitywithintheStillaguamishwatershed
(wheremanyreceivedascoreof“NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely”),consideringimpactsand
27
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
sensitivitiesintheirwinteringrangescouldresultinchangestotheiroverallscore.Inaddition,
nosensitivityfactorsaddressedspeciessensitivitytopathogensand/ordiseases,though
climatechangecouldresultinchangestovirulenceorspreadtopreviouslyunaffectedareas.
Furthermore,sensitivitytocompetitionwithnativeornon-nativespecieswasnotaddressedin
theCCVI,butclimatechangeisexpectedtoinfluencecompetitiveinteractions.
NatureServereleasedanupdatetotheCCVI,CCVI3.0,afterwehadalreadyinitiatedour
analysisusingCCVI2.1.Duetotimeconstraints,wewereunabletorepeattheanalysisusing
thenewerversion.However,CCVI3.0addressesmanyofthelimitationsdescribedabove.For
example,CCVI3.0incorporatesaclimatechangeexposureindexforSouthAmerica,improving
evaluationoflongdistancemigrantswithwinterrangesoutsidetheassessmentarea.15In
addition,CCVI3.0incorporatesa“sensitivitytopathogensornaturalenemies”factorthat
addressespotentialsensitivitiesduetopathogensorenemies.
ItisalsoimportanttonotethatCCVI3.0haseliminatedboththesomewhatdecrease
vulnerabilityanddecreasevulnerabilityrankingclassificationsforindirectclimateexposureand
climatesensitivity.Furthermore,thenewversionhaseliminatedtheIncreaseLikely
vulnerabilityranking,whichwasremoved“becauseincreasesarehardtopredict,especiallyin
thecontextofafixedassessmentarea”(Youngetal.2015).Thischangehassignificant
implicationsforourresults,because35%ofthebirdspeciesweevaluatedwereestimatedto
expandbymid-century.Therefore,werecommendinterpretingvulnerabilityrankingsthat
suggestfutureexpansionwithintheStillaguamishwatershedorTribe’scededareaaspresumed
stable.
AnotherimportantconsiderationisthattheCCVIdoesnotincorporatespeciesconservation
statusinitsranking.Rather,conservationstatusshouldbeevaluatedinconcertwithCCVI
scoreswhendevelopingclimateadaptationactionsandpriorities.
Finally,theCCVIisoneofseveralavailableapproachesforassessingspecies’vulnerabilityto
climatechange,andvulnerabilityrankingshavebeenshowntovarywiththeapproachtaken
(Lankfordetal.2014).Therankingswereportherealsoreflectcurrentknowledgederivedfrom
alimitedsetofdatasources,andshouldbeexpectedtochangewiththeprovisionofnew
informationandadditionalsources.WewouldthusencourageinterpretationoftheCCVIand
resultingrankingsasauseful,butnotfinal,meansofsystematicallyconsideringtheclimate
exposuresandsensitivitiescontributingtospecies’vulnerabilitieswithintheStillaguamish
watershedandtheTribe’scededarea.Whilethosespeciesidentifiedashighlyvulnerableinthis
assessmentinfactagreewellwiththoseidentifiedassuchinotherregionalassessments(e.g.,
Caseetal.2015),themostusefulandrobustapplicationoftheseCCVIresultsislikelytocome
fromconsideringwhyarankingwasgiven,ratherthanfocusingontherankingitself.
15
Thisclimatechangeexposureindexusesacontinuousnumericalscalefrom0to14thatcomparesprojectionsof
annualclimatemoisturedeficitandmeanannualtemperatureforthe2050susinganA1Bemissionsscenario
(relativetothe1961-1990average).
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6.FUTURERESEARCHNEEDS
Whiletherewereinmostcasessufficientdatatoconductaninformativeassessmentforthe
Tribe’spriorityspeciesandhabitats,therearemanyplaceswhereadditionalresearchwould
greatlyincreaseourunderstandingoftheclimaticexposuresandsensitivitiesunderlying
vulnerability(Appendix2).Forexample,manyspecieslackedGISrangedata,afundamental
toolforassessmentandadaptation.Forthemajorityofthespeciesevaluatedqualitativelyin
thisassessment,missingGISrangedatawasthesoleinformationgappreventingquantitative
analysisusingtheCCVI.Furthermore,informationgapsregardingspecies’phonological
responsestoclimatechange,anddependenceondisturbanceregimesinfluencedbyclimate
changewerepresentforthemajorityofspeciesevaluatedinthisassessment.Vulnerability
rankingsandadaptationstrategiesshouldthusbere-assessedastheseinformationgapsare
filled,ideallywithinthecontextofanadaptivemanagementframework.
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7.REFERENCES
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Ornithology.Retrievedfrom:http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna.
CaseMJ,LawlerJJ,TomasevicJA.2015.Relativesensitivitytoclimatechangeofspeciesin
northwesternNorthAmerica.BiologicalConservation187:127-133.
ClimateImpactsGroup.2015.PrimaryClimaticDriversofChangeinNaturalResourcesforthe
StillaguamishTribeinthePugetSound.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington.
CopelandJP,McKelveyKS,AubryKB,LandaA,PerssonJ,InmanRM,KrebsJ,LofrothE,Golden
H,SquiresJR,MagounA,SchwartzMK,WilmotJ,CopelandCL,YatesRE,KojolaI,MayR.2010.
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(IPCC)IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.2013.WorkingGroup1,Summaryfor
Policymakers.Availableat:http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf
(IPCC)IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.2007.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysical
ScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFourthAssessmentReportofthe
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Solomon,S.,D.Qin,M.Manning,Z.Chen,M.
Marquis,K.B.Averyt,M.TignorandH.L.Miller(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,
UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA.
TheIUCNRedListofThreatenedSpecies[webapplication].2015.Version2015.2.Retrieved
from:http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/spatial-data
Kroeker,K.J.,Kordas,R.L.,Crim,R.,Hendriks,I.E.,Ramajo,L.,Singh,G.S.,Duarte,C.M.and
Gattuso,J.P.2013.Impactsofoceanacidificationonmarineorganisms:quantifyingsensitivities
andinteractionwithwarming.GlobalChangeBiology,19:1884–1896.
Lankford,A.J.,Svancara,L.K.,Lawler,J.J.andVierling,K.2014.Comparisonofclimatechange
vulnerabilityassessmentsforwildlife.WildlifeSocietyBulletin38:386-394.
McCullough,D.A.1999.Areviewandsynthesisofeffectsofalterationsofthewater
temperatureregimeonfreshwaterlifestagesofsalmonids,withspecialreferencetochinook
salmon.USEPAReport910-R-99-010.279p.
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Cambridge,U.K.,599pp.Availableonlineat:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm
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Capalbo.2013.Coasts:ComplexchangesaffectingtheNorthwest'sdiverseshorelines.Chapter
4,pp67-109.InM.M.Dalton,P.W.Mote,andA.K.Snover(eds.)ClimateChangeinthe
Northwest:ImplicationsforOurLandscapes,Waters,andCommunities,WashingtonD.C.:
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limitsforsalmonidsintheWillametteandlowerColumbiaRivers.
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SalmonHabitatLimitingFactors–FinalReport.WaterResourceInventoryArea5–
StillaguamishWatershed.WashingtonStateConservationCommission.http://scc.wa.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2013/12/WRIA_5_LFR_web.pdf
StillaguamishImplementationReviewCommittee(SIRC).2005.StillaguamishWatershed
ChinookSalmonRecoveryPlan.PublishedbySnohomishCountyDepartmentofPublicWorks,
SurfaceWaterManagementDivision.Everett,WA.
WashingtonDepartmentofFishandWildlife.2015.Clams[Online].Retrievedfrom
http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/shellfish/clams/
Young,B.E,Byers,E.,Hammerson,G.,Frances,A.,Oliver,L.,Treher,A.2015.Guidelinesfor
UsingtheNatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex,version3.0.Arlington,Va.:
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2011.GuidelinesforUsingtheNatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex,version2.1.
Arlington,Va.:NatureServe.
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Appendix 1
NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) Rankings,
Confidence Scores, and Sensitivity Sub-Scores
DetaileddescriptionofsensitivityfactorsisprovidedinTable2.
SensitivityScores:
(1)GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability:GI
(2)IncreaseVulnerability:Inc
(3)SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability:SI
(4)Neutral:N
(5)SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability:SD
6)DecreaseVulnerability:Dec
(7)Unknown
CCVIRankings(Index):
(1)ExtremelyVulnerable:EV
(2)HighlyVulnerable:HV
(3)ModeratelyVulnerable:MV
(4)NotVulnerable/PresumedStable:PS
(5)NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely:IL
Confidence:
(1)VeryHigh:VH
(2)High:H
(3)Moderate:M
(4)Low:L
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Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
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C1
Phenological
Response
Documented
Response
Genetic Bottleneck
Genetic Variation
Other Spp. Interaction
Dependent on Others
for Dispersal
Pollinators
Diet
Depend on Others for
Habitat
Physical Habitat
Ice/Snow
Disturbance
Physiological
Hydrological Niche
Historical Hydrological
Niche
Physiological Thermal
Niche
Historical Thermal
Niche
Dispersal/Movement
Anthropogenic
Barriers
Climate Change
Mitigation
B1 B2a B2b B3
C2ai C2aii C2bi C2bii C2c C2d C3 C4a C4b C4c C4d C4e C5a C5b C6
D1
Protected Areas
Taxonomic
Group
Modeled Overlap
Species
Modeled Change
English Name
Natural Barriers
Sea Level Rise
Appendix1a.2050s
D2
D3
D4
Index
Confidence
Stillaguamish Watershed (A1B and A2 Scenarios)
American Beaver
Castor canadensis
Mammal
N
Inc
SI
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
SI
N
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
American Pipit
Anthus rubescens
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
U
SD
SI
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Bald Eagle
Haliaeetus leucocephalus
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Black Bellied Plover
Pluvialis squatarola
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
SI
Inc
SD
SI
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Black-Tailed Deer
Odocoileus hemionus
Mammal
N
SI
Inc
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Brant
Branta bernicla
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SI
N
N
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Bufflehead
Bucephala albeola
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
SI
SD
Inc
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Bull Trout
Salvelinus confluentus
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec
Inc
GI
SD
GI
SI
N
IncSI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Canada Goose
Branta canadensis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
SI
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Cassin's Finch
Haemorhous cassinii
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
Inc
SD
N
N
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Chinook Salmon
Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec
Inc
GI
SD
GI
GI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Coho Salmon
Oncorhynchus kisutch
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec
Inc
GI
SD
GI
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Common Goldeneye
Bucephala clangula
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Gray-Crowned Rosy-Finch
Leucosticte tephrocotis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
SI
GI
SD
N
U
Inc
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Great Blue Heron
Ardea herodias
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
SI
N
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Greater Scaup
Aythya marila
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
Inc
SI
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Grizzly Bear
Ursus arctos
Mammal
N
N
Inc
N
Dec
Inc
Inc
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Marbled Murrelet
Brachyramphus marmoratus
Bird
N
SI
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
SI
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
SI
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Mountain Lion
Puma concolor
Mammal
N
N
Inc
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Northern Flying Squirrel
Glaucomys sabrinus
Mammal
N
SI
Inc
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Northern Goshawk
Accipiter gentilis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Olive Sided Flycatcher
Contopus cooperi
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
SI
SD
N
SD
N
N
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Oregon Spotted Frog
Rana pretiosa
Amphibian
N
SI
Inc
N
N
Inc
U
SD
Inc
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Pigeon Guillemont
Cepphus columba
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
SI
N
SI
N
U
N
SD
N
SI
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Pileated Woodpecker
Dryocopus pileatus
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Red-Breasted Sapsucker
Sphyrapicus ruber
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Rhinoceros Auklet
Cerorhinca monocerata
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
Inc
N
SI
N
SD
N
SI
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Sooty Grouse
Dendragapus fuliginosus
Bird
N
N
SI
N
Dec
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Spotted Owl
Strix occidentalis caurina
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
Inc
SD
N
Inc
N
SD
SI
SI
N/A N
N
U
SI
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Steelhead
Oncorhynchus mykiss
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec
Inc
GI
SD
GI
Inc
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Swainson's Thrush
Catharus ustulatus
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
SI
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Trumpeter Swan
Cygnus buccinator
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
SI
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
Inc
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Western Grebe
Aechmophorus occidentalis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
GI
Inc
N
SD
SI
SI
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Western Sandpiper
Calidris mauri
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
N
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Wilson's Warbler
Cardellina pusilla
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Wolverine
Gulo gulo
Mammal
N
Inc
SI
N
Dec
Inc
GI
SD
N
N
GI
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Canada Lynx
Lynx canadensis
Mammal
N
SI
SI
N
Dec
Inc-SI Inc
SD
N
Inc
GI
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
HV
VH
Mountain Goat
Oreamnos americanus
Mammal
N
SI
SI
N
Dec
Inc-SI GI
SD
N
SI
SI
SI
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Northern Pintail
Anas acuta
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
Inc
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Western Pond Turtle
Actinemys marmorata
Reptile
N
SI
GI-IncN
N
Inc
N
SD
SI
U
N
N
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Canada Lynx
Lynx canadensis
Mammal
N
SI
SI
N
Dec
Inc-SI Inc
SD
N
Inc
GI
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Mountain Goat
Oreamnos americanus
Mammal
N
SI
SI
N
Dec
Inc-SI GI
SD
N
SI
SI
SI
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Northern Pintail
Anas acuta
Bird
N
N
Dec
Inc
N
SD
Inc
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Western Pond Turtle
Actinemys marmorata
Reptile
SI
SI
N
N
GI Inc N
N
Inc
N
SD
SI
U
N
N
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Ceded Area (A1B Scenario)
Ceded Area (A2 Scenario)
34
C1
Phenological
Response
Documented
Response
Genetic Bottleneck
Genetic Variation
Other Spp. Interaction
Dependent on Others
for Dispersal
Pollinators
Diet
Depend on Others for
Habitat
Physical Habitat
Ice/Snow
Disturbance
Physiological
Hydrological Niche
Historical Hydrological
Niche
Physiological Thermal
Niche
Historical Thermal
Niche
Dispersal/Movement
Anthropogenic
Barriers
Climate Change
Mitigation
B1 B2a B2b B3
C2ai C2aii C2bi C2bii C2c C2d C3 C4a C4b C4c C4d C4e C5a C5b C6
D1
Protected Areas
Taxonomic
Group
Modeled Overlap
Species
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Modeled Change
English Name
Natural Barriers
Sea Level Rise
Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
Appendix1b.2080s
D2
D3
D4
Index
Confidence
Stillaguamish Watershed (A1B and A2 Scenarios)
American Beaver
Castor canadensis
Mammal
N
Inc
SI
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
SI
N
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
American Pipit
Anthus rubescens
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
U
SD
SI
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Bald Eagle
Haliaeetus leucocephalus
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Black Bellied Plover
Pluvialis squatarola
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec SI
Inc
SD
SI
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Black-Tailed Deer
Odocoileus hemionus
Mammal
N
SI
Inc
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Brant
Branta bernicla
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SI
N
N
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Bufflehead
Bucephala albeola
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
SI
SD
Inc
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Bull Trout
Salvelinus confluentus
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec Inc
GI
SD
GI
SI
N
Inc SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Canada Goose
Branta canadensis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
SI
SI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Cassin's Finch
Haemorhous cassinii
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
Inc
SD
N
N
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Chinook Salmon
Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec Inc
GI
SD
GI
GI
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Coho Salmon
Oncorhynchus kisutch
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec Inc
GI
SD
GI
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Common Goldeneye
Bucephala clangula
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Gray-Crowned Rosy-Finch
Leucosticte tephrocotis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec SI
GI
SD
N
U
Inc
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Great Blue Heron
Ardea herodias
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
SI
N
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Greater Scaup
Aythya marila
Bird
SI
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
Inc
SI
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Grizzly Bear
Ursus arctos
Mammal
N
N
Inc
N
Dec Inc
Inc
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
MV
VH
Marbled Murrelet
Brachyramphus marmoratus
Bird
N
SI
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
SI
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
SI
U
U
U
U
HV
VH
Mountain Lion
Puma concolor
Mammal
N
N
Inc
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Northern Flying Squirrel
Glaucomys sabrinus
Mammal
N
SI
Inc
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
HV
VH
Northern Goshawk
Accipiter gentilis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Olive Sided Flycatcher
Contopus cooperi
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
SI
SD
N
SD
N
N
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Oregon Spotted Frog
Rana pretiosa
Amphibian
N
SI
Inc
N
N
U
SD
Inc
U
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
HV
VH
Pigeon Guillemont
Cepphus columba
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec SI
N
SI
N
U
N
SD
N
SI
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Pileated Woodpecker
Dryocopus pileatus
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Red-Breasted Sapsucker
Sphyrapicus ruber
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Rhinoceros Auklet
Cerorhinca monocerata
Bird
SI
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
Inc
N
SI
N
SD
N
SI
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Sooty Grouse
Dendragapus fuliginosus
Bird
N
N
SI
N
Dec SI
N
SD
N
SD
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Spotted Owl
Strix occidentalis caurina
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
Inc
SD
N
Inc
N
SD
SI
SI
N/A N
N
U
SI
U
U
U
U
U
HV
VH
Steelhead
Oncorhynchus mykiss
Fish
N
N
Inc
Inc
Dec Inc
GI
SD
GI
Inc
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Swainson's Thrush
Catharus ustulatus
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
SI
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Trumpeter Swan
Cygnus buccinator
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec SI
N
SD
N
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
Inc
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Western Grebe
Aechmophorus occidentalis
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
GI
Inc
N
SD
SI
SI
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
HV
VH
Western Sandpiper
Calidris mauri
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
N
N
SD
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Wilson's Warbler
Cardellina pusilla
Bird
N
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
N
U
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
IL
VH
Wolverine
Gulo gulo
Mammal
N
Inc
SI
N
Dec Inc
GI
SD
N
N
GI
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Inc
Ceded Area (A1B and A2 Scenarios)
Canada Lynx
Lynx canadensis
Mammal
N
SI
SI
N
Inc Dec SI
Inc
SD
N
Inc
GI
SD
N
Inc
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Mountain Goat
Oreamnos americanus
Mammal
N
SI
SI
N
Dec Inc-SI GI
SD
N
SI
SI
SI
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Northern Pintail
Anas acuta
Bird
SI
N
N
N
Dec Inc
N
SD
Inc
SI
N
SD
N
SD
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
PS
VH
Western Pond Turtle
Actinemys marmorata
Reptile
N
SI
GI Inc N
N
N
SD
SI
U
N
N
N
N
N/A N
N
U
N
U
U
U
U
U
EV
VH
Inc
35
Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Appendix 2
Information Gaps for Assessed Species
InformationStatus:
(1)NoInformationAvailable:
(2)InformationAvailable: (3)Non-applicable: (4)Unknown: NoInformationAvailableindicatesaninformationgapforaCCVIfactor;InformationAvailable
indicatessufficientdatatoevaluateaspeciesforaCCVIfactor;Non-ApplicableindicatesaCCVI
factorthatisnon-applicableforagivenspecies(e.g.,“numberofpollinators”foramammal).
UnknownindicatesCCVIfactorsthatfellundertheheadingof“DocumentedResponseto
ClimateChange,”whichwerenotincludedinourassessmentduetolackofreadilyavailable
data.
36
Climate$Change$
Mitigation
Dispersal$/$
Movement
Historical$Thermal$
Niche
Physiological$
Thermal$Niche
Historical$
Hydrological$Niche
Physiological$
Hydrological$Niche
Disturbance
Ice/snow
Physical$Habitat
Depend$on$Others$
for$Habitat
Diet
Pollinators
Dependent$on$
Others$for$Dispersal
Other$Species$
Interaction
Genetic$Variation
Genetic$Bottleneck
Phenological$
Response
Documented$
Response
Modeled$Change
Modeled$Overlap
Protected$Areas
Taxonomic$
Group
Anthropogenic$
Barriers
Species
Natural$Barriers
English$Name
Sea$Level$Rise
GIS$Range$Data
Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Appendix2a.InformationStatusforQuantitativelyAssessedSpecies
B1
B2a
B2b
B3
C1
C2ai
C2aii
C2bi
C2bii
C2c
C2d
C3
C4a
C4b
C4c
C4d
C4e
C5a
C5b
C6
D1
D2
D3
D4
Stillaguamish+Watershed
American)Beaver
Castor'canadensis
Mammal
American)Pipit)
Anthus'rubescens
Bird
Bald)Eagle
Haliaeetus'leucocephalus Bird
Black)Bellied)
Plover
Pluvialis'squatarola
Bird
Black6Tailed)Deer Odocoileus'hemionus
Mammal
Brant
Branta'bernicla
Bird
Bufflehead)
Bucephala'albeola
Bird
Bull)Trout
Salvelinus'confluentus
Fish
Canada)Goose
Branta'canadensis
Bird
Cassin's)Finch
Haemorhous'cassinii
Bird
Chinook))Salmon
Oncorhynchus'
tshawytscha
Fish
Oncorhynchus'kisutch
Fish
Bucephala'clangula
Bird
Gray6Crowned)
Rosy6Finch
Leucosticte'tephrocotis
Bird
Great)Blue)Heron
Ardea'herodias
Bird
Greater)Scaup
Aythya'marila
Bird
Grizzly)Bear
Ursus'arctos'
Mammal
Marbled)Murrelet)
Brachyramphus'
marmoratus
Bird
Mountain)Lion)
Puma'concolor
Mammal
Northern)Flying)
Squirrel)
Glaucomys'sabrinus
Mammal
Coho)Salmon
Common)
Goldeneye)
Northern)Goshawk Accipiter'gentilis
Bird
Olive)Sided)
Flycatcher
Contopus'cooperi
Bird
Oregon)Spotted)
Frog
Rana'pretiosa
Amphibian
Pigeon)Guillemont) Cepphus'columba
Bird
Pileated)
Woodpecker
Dryocopus'pileatus
Bird
Red6Breasted)
Sapsucker
Sphyrapicus'ruber
Bird
Rhinoceros)Auklet Cerorhinca'monocerata
Bird
Sooty)Grouse
Dendragapus'fuliginosus Bird
Spotted)Owl)
Strix'occidentalis'caurina Bird
Steelhead
Oncorhynchus'mykiss
Fish
Swainson's)Thrush) Catharus'ustulatus
Bird
Trumpeter)Swan)
Cygnus'buccinator
Bird
Aechmophorus'
occidentalis
Bird
Calidris'mauri
Bird
Wilson's)Warbler)
Cardellina'pusilla
Bird
Wolverine
Gulo'gulo
Mammal
Western)Grebe
Western)
Sandpiper
Point+Elliot+Treaty+Area
Canada)Lynx
Lynx'canadensis
Mammal
Mountain)Goat
Oreamnos'americanus
Mammal
Northern)Pintail
Anas'acuta'
Bird
Western)Pond)
Turtle
Actinemys'marmorata
Reptile
37
Climate Change
Mitigation
Dispersal /
Movement
Historical Thermal
Niche
Physiological
Thermal Niche
Historical
Hydrological Niche
Physiological
Hydrological Niche
Disturbance
Ice/snow
Physical Habitat
Depend on Others
for Habitat
Diet
Pollinators
Dependent on
Others for Dispersal
Other Species
Interaction
Genetic Variation
Genetic Bottleneck
Phenological
Response
Documented
Response
Modeled Change
Modeled Overlap
Protected Areas
Taxonomic
Group
Anthropogenic
Barriers
Species
Natural Barriers
English Name
Sea Level Rise
GIS Range Data
Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Appendix2b.InformationStatusforQualitativelyAssessedSpecies
B1
B2a
B2b
B3
C1
C2ai
C2aii
C2bi
C2bii
C2c
C2d
C3
C4a
C4b
C4c
C4d
C4e
C5a
C5b
C6
D1
D2
D3
D4
Stillaguamish Watershed
Alaska Blueberry
Vaccinium alaskaense
Alaska Cedar
Cupressus nootkatensis /
Chamaecyparis
Tree
Bivalves
Bivalvia
Molluscs
Bog Cranberry
Vaccinium oxycoccos
Shrub
Black
Oystercatcher
Haematopus bachmani
Bird
Cattail
Typha latifolia
Plant
Elk
Cervus elaphus
Mammal
Evergreen
Huckleberry
Vaccinium ovatum
Shrub
Forage Fish
Shrub
Fish
Green Sturgeon
Acipenser medirostris
Fish
Pacific Jumping
Mouse
Zapus trinotatus
Mammal
Pacific Lamprey
Lampetra tridentata
Jawless
Fishes
Purple Martin
Progne subis
Bird
Red Huckleberry
Vaccinium parvifolium
Shrub
Western Toad
Anaxyrus boreas
Amphibian
White Sturgeon
Acipenser transmotanus
Fish
38
Stillaguamish Tribe Natural Resources
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Appendix 3
SpeciesandHabitatsFactSheets
Species
A
AlaskaBlueberry,40
AlaskaCedar,41
AmericanBeaver,42
AmericanPipit,43
B
BaldEagle,44
Bivalve,45
BlackOystercatcher,46
Black-belliedPlover,47
Black-tailedDeer,48
BogCranberry,49
Brant,50
BroadleafCattail,51
Bufflehead,52
BullTrout,53
C
MountainGoat,69
MountainLion,70
N
NorthernFlyingSquirrel,71
NorthernGoshawk,72
NorthernPintail,73
NorthernShoveler,74
O
Olive-sidedFlycatcher,75
OregonSpottedFrog,76
P
PacificJumpingMouse,77
PacificLamprey,78
PigeonGuillemot,79
PileatedWoodpecker,80
PurpleMartin,81
CanadaGoose,54
CanadaLynx,55
Cassin’sFinch,56
ChinookSalmon,57
CohoSalmon,58
CommonGoldeneye,59
R
E
SootyGrouse,85
SpottedOwl,86
Steelhead,87
Swainson’sThrush,88
Elk,60
EvergreenHuckleberry,61
F
Red-BreastedSapsucker,82
RedHuckleberry,83
RhinocerosAuklet,84
S
ForageFish,62
T
G
TrumpeterSwan,89
Gray-crownedRosy-Finch,63
GreatBlueHeron,64
GreaterScaup,65
GreenSturgeon,66
GrizzlyBear,67
M
MarbledMurrelet,68
W
WesternGrebe,90
WesternPondTurtle,91
WesternRedcedar,92
WesternSandpiper,93
WesternToad,94
WhiteSturgeon,95
Wilson’sWarbler,96
Wolverine,97
Habitats
E
Montane–Alpine,subalpine,meadow,talus,103
F
OldGrowthGorest,104
OpenMeadow,105
Estuary–Saltmarsh,eelgrass,mudflat,98
Forest,99
FreshwaterAquatic,100
M
Marine–Nearshore/gravelbeaches,101
Marine–Openwater(photiczone),102
O
R
Riparian106
W
Wetland:ForestedWetland107
39
Alaska Blueberry
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:AlaskaBlueberry
ScientificName:Vacciniumalaskaense
TheAlaskablueberryissensitivetofire,whichcandelay
berryproduction.Huckleberries(Vacciniumspp.)are
sensitivetosoilpH,andwillonlythriveinacidic
conditions.Thisacidicsoilrequirementcouldmake
migrationtonewlocationsmorechallenging.
KeySensitivities
• Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
BerryproductioninAlaskablueberryisgenerally
delayedforatleast5yearsafterafire.Onsomesites,
productionmaybereducedfor20yearsorlonger.1 Photo:EmmaHarrower
•
Dependenceonothersforpropaguledispersal–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
UncommonGeologicFeature–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Alaskablueberryseedsaredispersedbyawidevarietyofbirdsandmammals.1
Huckleberries(Vacciniumspp.)requireacidicconditionsandcanthrivewherepHrangesfrom4.3to
5.2.Theseshrubsrequirerelativelysmallamountsofmanyessentialelementsandarecapableof
growingonmanyrelativelyinfertilesoils.Alaskablueberrycommonlyoccursonnitrogen-poorsoils.
Itgrowsonwell-drainedsandyandgravellysoils,andonsiltyloam,butgenerallyreachesgreatest
abundanceonsandysoils.1
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseintheareaburnedmaynegativelyimpactplantreproductionandberryproduction.Declines
insnowpackandalongersummerdroughtperiodmayreducesoilmoistureandlimitgrowthand
reproductioninthefuture.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.ThepollinatorversatilityoftheAlaskablueberryis
unknown.
1
ForestServiceDatabasehttp://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/shrub/vacala/all.html
40
Alaska Cedar
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:AlaskaCedar
ScientificName:Chamaecyparisnootkatensis
TheAlaskacedargrowsintherelativelycool,mid-elevation
regionoftheCascaderangeinWashington,andistherefore
likelytobeatagreaterriskfromclimatechange.
KeySensitivities
• Dispersal/Movement–Neutral
SeedsofAlaskacedarareheavierthanseedsoftheclosely
relatedPortOrfordcedarandprobablyarenotdisseminated
beyond120m(400ft).Informationisnotavailableonthe
distanceseedsaredisseminatedbythewind.1
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Alaskacedargrowsatelevationsfrom600to2,300m(2,000
to7,500ft)intheCascadeRangeinWashington.Itis
restrictedtorelativelycoolorcoldregionswithinthe
Stillaguamishwatershed,andisthereforeatgreaterrisk
fromclimatechange.1,2 •
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–Neutral
•
UncommonGeologicFeature–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
Photo:WalterSiegmund
Alaskacedarisnotablewithinthecypressfamilyforitstoleranceofcoolandwetconditions.The
climateofitsnaturalrangeiscoolandhumid.Thisspeciesisnotdependentonanarrowlydefined
precipitationorhydrologicregime.1,2
Bestgrowthanddevelopmentareonslopeswithdeep,well-drainedsoils.However,becauseof
competitionwithfastergrowingassociates,thespeciesismorefrequentlyfoundonthinorganicsoils
overbedrockandisabletosurviveandgrowonsoilsthataredeficientinnutrients.1
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Potentialdeclinesinsummerprecipitationcouldnegativelyaffectthegrowthandcompetitiveadvantage
ofthisspecies.Anincreaseinthenumberofgrowingdegreedaysandadecreaseinthelengthofthe
freeze-freeperiodalsothreatenAlaskacedar’scompetitiveadvantageinsomesites.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangemapsareneededfortheAlaskacedar.ItisunknownifAlaskacedarisaffectedbyaspecific
disturbanceregime,anditisunknownwhetherthespeciesisdependentonotherspeciesforpropagule
dispersal.
1
2
Griffith,R.S(1992)
Youngetal.(2011)
41
American Beaver
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:AmericanBeaver
ScientificName:Castorcanadensis
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
TheAmericanbeaverreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforbothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).
Photo:JimJenkins KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theAmericanbeaverhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
NaturalBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
Waterbodieswithgreatlyfluctuatingfloworwaterlevelsaregenerallyconsideredpoorhabitatfor
theAmericanbeaver.2
Impassableuplands(cliffs,etc.)thatrequiremorethana10kmroutetocircumventactasnatural
barrierstodispersal.Additionally,iftributariesdryupdispersalfromhigherelevationlakes,ponds,or
wetlandswillbeimpacted.2
Roads(highwayandarterial)andaridlandscanactasbarrierstodispersal.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmerwintertemperaturesandincreasedprecipitationcouldcontributetohigherstreamflowsandan
increasedfloodrisk,whichwouldnegativelyaffectthisspecies.Decliningsummerprecipitationcould
resultinpoorhabitatforbeavers.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknowniftheAmericanbeaverisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/castor-canadensis-0
42
American Pipit
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:AmericanPipit
ScientificName:Anthusrubescens
1
CCVI Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
TheAmericanpipitreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforbothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).
Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’
flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableitto
flytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Photo:AaronMaizlish
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theAmericanpipithasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
inthepast50years.2
TheAmericanpipitdependsonwetlandsandvernalpools,whicharesensitivetoclimatechange.3
TheAmericanpipitfeedsonseveralkindsofarthropods(mostlyinsects)insummerandalsoplant
seedsinautumnandwinter.3Thespeciesisalsoknowntofeedonmollusks,crustaceans,andaquatic
worms.2
IncreasedfrequencyofwindeventscouldleadtonestingfailureastheAmericanpipitnestsonthe
groundinwetanddrymeadows,tussocks,orerosionbanks,usuallypartlyprotectedbyoverhanging
vegetation,sod,orrock.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowcouldaffectsomeofthewetlandsandvernal
poolsthatthisspeciesrelieson.Decliningsnowpackmayalsoadverselyaffectwetlandsandvernalpools.
Anincreaseintheacidityofmarinewatersmayaffectthefoodsourceforthisspecies.Stormeventsand
sedimentationmayaffectfoodsourcesforthisspecies.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknowniftheAmericanpipitisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperature
orprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)for
the2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2
andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedby
NatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thus
leadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonot
presentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/anthus-rubescens
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/095/articles/introduction
43
Bald Eagle
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:BaldEagle
ScientificName:Haliaeetusleucocephalus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThebaldeaglereceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstablefor
Photo:KennethColeSchneider
bothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableitto
flytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thebaldeaglehasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariationin
thepast50years.2
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–Neutral
Eaglesaresensitivetofire,wind,urbanization,andpollution.Fire,wind,andfrequentfloodingcanbe
destructiveatnestsites–destroyinglargenesttrees.3
Thebaldeagleisclassifiedasacarnivore,piscivore,andanopportunisticforagerconsumingarange
ofspeciesdependinguponavailability.Eaglesprimarilyconsumefishwherepossibleandavailable,
butalsocarrion(particularlyinwinter).3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fmaynegatively
impactthisspeciesandleadtochangesinitsdistribution.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-free
periodmayalsofacilitatethespreadofcold-limiteddiseases.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
negativelyimpactavailablehabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownwhetherthebaldeagleisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/haliaeetus-leucocephalus-0
44
Bivalves
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:BivalveMollusk(clams,oysters,
mussels,scallops)
ScientificClass:Bivalvia
Bivalveshavearelativelyflexibledietandresidein
coastalandestuarinehabitats.Sealevelrisecould
inundatecoastalhabitatareasimportantfor
bivalvereproductionandsurvival.
KeySensitivities:
• DietaryVersatility–Neutral
•
Bivalvesarefilterfeedersandconsume
phytoplanktonandzooplanktonspecies.1
Photo:RickGordon RestrictiontoUncommonGeologicalFeaturesorDerivatives–SomewhatIncrease
Vulnerability
Oncebivalvelarvaehavedevelopedintothematurelifestagetheyattachtogravel,shell,orsand
grains,andburrowbelowthesedimentsurface.1 •
Dispersal/Movement–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability Larvalclamsspendasignificantamountoftimedriftinginthewaterbeforesettlingandburrowing
beneaththesedimentsurface.Therefore,larvaemaydisperseseveralmilesfromtheparental
origins.1
AdditionalClimaticFactorsThatMayInfluenceVulnerability:
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandanincreaseintheacidityofmarinewaterswilllikelyaffectthis
species.ThechemistryoftheoceanalongtheWashingtoncoasthaschangedduetotheabsorptionof
excessCO2fromtheatmosphere.Localconditionsarealsoaffectedbyvariationsandtrendsinupwelling
ofdeeperPacificOceanwaterthatislowinpHandhighinnutrients,deliveriesofnutrientsandorganic
carbonfromland,andabsorptionofotherimportantacidifyingatmosphericgases.23Bytheendofthe
century,oceanacidificationisprojectedtoresultina40%reduction,globally,intherateatwhich
mollusks(e.g.,musselsandoysters)formshells,aswellasa17%declineingrowth,anda34%declinein
survival.4Additionally,anincreaseinsedimentationfromfreshwaterfloodingandscouringwilllikely
haveadverseeffects.
DataNeeds
Thereisasignificantneedfornaturalhistoryinformationrelatingtospecificfamiliesandgenerawithin
thelargeanddiverseBivalviaclass.Thesedataarenecessarytoaddressthespecificvulnerabilitiesof
clam,oyster,mussel,andscallopspeciesincoastalWashington.
1
WashingtonDepartmentofFishandWildlife-Clams
Reederetal.2013
3
Feelyetal.2010
4
Kroekeretal.2013
2
45
Black-Bellied Plover
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Black-belliedPlover
ScientificName:Pluvialissquatarola
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
Theblack-belliedploverreceivedaCCVIrankingof
presumedstableforbothtimehorizons(2050sand2080s).
Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’
flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableitto
flytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
Photo:HansHillewaert
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theblack-belliedploverhasexperiencedslightlylowerthanaverage(47.1-57°F/26.3-
31.8°C)temperaturevariationinthepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Theblack-belliedploverisphysiologicallysensitivetohightemperatures.Itsbodyispoorlyinsulated
fromheat,andtherearehighcostsassociatedwithitsthermoregulationandbasalmetabolicrate.3
Precipitationisexpectedtoaffectthepredatory/preyrelationshipsandthehabitathydrologyofthe
black-belliedplover.3
Itislikelytobesensitivetofloodingaswellasstormfrequencyandintensity.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingoceantemperaturesandanincreaseintheacidityofmarinewatersmayaffectthefoodsource
forthisspecies.Coastalfloodingandsea-levelrisemayaffecthabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknowniftheblack-belliedploverisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/pluvialis-squatarola
46
Black Oystercatcher Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:BlackOystercatcher
ScientificName:Haematopusbachmani
Theblackoystercatcherisashorebirdthatisdependenton
marineshorelineforallfoodandnestinghabitat.12Thisspecies
hasexcellentmovementcapabilities,whichenableittoflyto
newlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thedietoftheblackoystercatcherismainlycomposedof
Photo:IngridTaylar
Intertidalmarineinvertebrates,particularlybivalvesand
othermolluscs(limpets,whelks,andchitons);alsocrabs,seaurchins,isopods,andbarnacles.
Contrarytothespecies’commonname,oystersareanunimportantcomponentofthespecies’diet.2
Theflexibledietoftheblackoystercatcherenablesthespeciestorespondtoclimatemediatedshifts
inpreyabundanceandavailability.However,manyofthespeciesthatmakeupthedietoftheblack
oystercatcherarecurrentlybeingimpactedbyoceanacidification.4
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Themaximumannualdispersaldistanceoftheblackoystercatcherisestimatedtobegreaterthan
100km.3
Theblackoystercatcherisaffectedbylandslidesduringwinterstormevents,whichleadtoincreases
insedimentation.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandanincreaseintheacidityofmarinewaterswilllikelyaffectthe
foodresourcesofthisspecies.Additionally,coastalfloodingandanincreaseinsedimentationcouldhave
adverseeffectsonitsabilitytoforage.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangemapsareneededfortheblackoystercatcher.Itisunknowniftheblackoystercatcheris
exhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1CqhcFe
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bit.ly/1JVkUqj
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/571
4
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
2
47
Black-Tailed Deer
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Black-tailedDeer
ScientificName:Odocoileushemionuscolumbianus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:ModeratelyVulnerable
Theblack-taileddeerreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforthe2050s,andmoderatelyvulnerableforthe
2080s.Themoderatelyvulnerablerankingisaresultofthe
Photo:JeffNadler
species’sensitivitytodisturbanceregimesandthepresence
ofanthropogenicbarrierswithinthewatershed,whichhinderthespecies’abilitytomovetonew
locationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Ruggedmountainterrainactsabarriertodispersal.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Roadsandurbancentersactasbarrierstodispersal.2
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theblack-taileddeerhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.3
Theblack-taileddeerisnottightlylinkedtoparticulardisturbanceregimes,althoughfirecould
negativelyaffecthabitatquality.2
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducefoodresourcesandleadto
populationdeclines.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayfacilitatethespreadof
diseasesthatwerepreviouslylimitedbycoldtemperatures.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
reduceforaginghabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknowniftheblack-taileddeerisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/odocoileus-hemionus-0
3
Youngetal.(2011)
48
Bog Cranberry
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:BogCranberry
ScientificName:Vacciniumoxycoccos
Thebogcranberryissensitivetoseverefires,whichcandelay
berryproduction.ThebogcranberryissensitivetosoilpH,
andwillonlythriveinacidicconditions.Thisacidicsoil
requirementcouldmakemigrationtonewlocationsmore
challenging.
KeySensitivities • Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Photo:TylerSmith
MembersofthefamilyEricaceaeeasilyregeneratefromrhizomesfollowingfire.Bogcranberryis
abletosurvivelow-tomoderate-severityfiresbecauserhizomesarefoundwellbelowthesurfaceof
thebog.Bogcranberrycanutilizeashnutrientsforrapidgrowth,preventingadditionalnutrientloss
fromtheburnsite.Wildfiresareinfrequentinthewetorsaturatedhabitatsthatbogcranberry
generallyoccupies.However,itisimportanttonotethatseverefiresthatremovetheunderlying
sphagnumlayergenerallykillundergroundreproductiveorgans.1
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Dependenceonothersforpropaguledispersal–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
UncommonGeologicFeature-SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Bogcranberryisfoundinombrotrophicsphagnumbogsandminerotrophicfensinmoistcoastaland
borealforests.Bogcranberrygrowsonpeatinthesepoorlydrained,subhygrictohygricsitesthat
haveaveryhighwatertable.Thegroundmaybesaturatedformostorpartoftheyear.Thebogsites
derivewaterfromprecipitationonlyandaregenerallynutrient-poorandlowinproductivity.1
Seedsaredispersedbybirdsandanimalsthatconsumethefruitsofthebogcranberry.1
Bogcranberryisfoundinombrotrophicsphagnumbogsandminerotrophicfensinmoistcoastaland
borealforests.Thebogsitesderivewaterfromprecipitationonlyandaregenerallynutrient-poorand
lowinproductivity.ThesoilisveryacidicandpHrangesfromabout2.9to4.7.Sincefenwateris
derivedfromgroundwateraswellasprecipitation,thefensitesaremoreion-rich,andtherefore,
morealkaline.ThesoilpHrangesfromabout6.0to7.5.1
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayimpactplantreproductionandberryproduction,withlowintensity
firespotentiallypromotingbogcranberriesandhighintensityfiresdestroyingthem.Declinesin
snowpackandalongersummerdroughtperiodwillreducesoilmoisture,dryhabitats,andlimitgrowth
andreproduction.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.
1
ForestServiceDatabasehttp://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/shrub/vacoxy/all.html
49
Brant
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Brant
ScientificName:Brantabernicla
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
BrantreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstablefor
bothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).This
Photo:JasonCrotty
stablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’
flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeover
time.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thebranthasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariationinthe
past50years.2
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
Brantsfeedmainlyoneelgrass,greenalgae,andsaltmarshplantsduringthenonbreedingseason.
Recentdeclinesineelgrassabundancehaveledtogreaterdependenceonalternativefoods.3
Themaximumannualdispersalofthebrantisestimatedtobegreaterthan100km.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperatureswilllikelyaffectthefoodresourcesofthisspecies.Additionally,
coastalfloodingandanincreaseinsedimentationcouldhaveadverseeffectsonitsabilitytoforage.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthebrantisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.Moreresearchisneededtodeterminehowmarshandeelgrasshabitatwill
respondtoclimatechange.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassification
usedbyNatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperature
bin,thusleadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,we
donotpresentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/337/articles/introduction
4
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/branta-bernicla-0
50
Bufflehead
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Bufflehead
ScientificName:Bucephalaalbeola
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThebuffleheadreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstablefor
bothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).Thisstable
Photo:TylerIngram
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thebuffleheadhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariationin
thepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat–IncreaseVulnerability
ThebuffleheadisphysiologicallysensitivetothepHofthewatersitresidesin.Thoughusually
moderatelyalkaline(aboutpH8),pondsusedrangefromslightlyacidictohighlyalkaline.34
Floodingmayaffectthecharacteristicsofpondsusedbythebufflehead.3
TheBuffleheadisanobligatecavitynester.Buffleheadsusecavitiesexcavatedbynorthernflicker
(Colaptesauratus)and,occasionally,pileatedwoodpecker(Dryocopuspileatus),andavoidcavities
withbrokentops.pHvariationmayaffecttheabilityofthespeciestofindsuitablepondstolive.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandtheacidityofbothmarineandfreshwaterbodiescouldnegatively
affectitsfoodresources,suchasaquaticinvertebrates,crustaceans,andmollusks.Coastalfloodingand
sedimentationmayalsoadverselyimpacthabitatalongtheshoreline.Anincreaseintheareaburned
couldimpactnestingsites.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthebuffleheadisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassification
usedbyNatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperature
bin,thusleadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,we
donotpresentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/bucephala-albeola
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/067/articles/introduction
51
Bull Trout
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:BullTrout
ScientificName:Salvelinusconfluentus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080s:ExtremelyVulnerable
Photo:USFWS
ThebulltroutreceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderatelyvulnerableforthe2050sandextremelyvulnerable
forthe2080s.Thesevulnerabilityrankingsarearesultofthespecies’sensitivitytowatertemperatures
anddisturbanceregimes.
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
•
•
•
•
•
ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Seawalldevelopment,whichprimarilyaffectsthenearshoreareasthatjuvenilesalmonidsrelyonin
theircriticalearlymarinelifestage.Seawalldevelopmentcouldalsoimpedebulltroutmovement
andmigration.2
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.However,
smalldiversionstructuressuchastheCookSloughweirandtheGraniteFallsfishwayposesomefish
passageproblems.Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactasfishpassagebarriers.
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Bulltroutrequireextremelycoldwatertemperatures,from7.2-10°C.3Optimumtemperaturesfor
incubationareabout2-4°C.
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Spawningusuallyoccursingravelrifflesofsmalltributarystreams,includinglakeinletstreams,andis
oftenassociatedwithsprings.Areaswithlargewoodydebrisandrubblesubstrateareimportantas
juvenilerearinghabitat.Habitatincludesthebottomofdeeppoolsincoldriversandlargetributary
streams,ofteninmoderatetofastcurrentsandlargecold-waterlakesandreservoirs.3
Disturbance–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
BulltroutintheNorthForkoftheStillaguamishRiverselectspawningareasthatareassociatedwith
thegravelrifflesofsmalltributarystreams,includinglakeinletstreams,andareoftenassociated
withsprings.Thesespawninglocationsareathighriskforimpactsfromlatefallandwinterflooding.
Lowflowsinthesummerimpacttheamountofwateravailableforadultmigrationandspawning.
Excessivesedimentcansmotherfisheggs,andfloodingcandestroyredds.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingstreamtemperaturesanddecliningsnowpackwillaffecttheabilityofthisspeciestosurviveinsome
streams.Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowcouldscourstreams,loweringreproductivesuccess.
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandoceanacidificationcouldreducefoodresources.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthebulltroutisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingtemperatureorprecipitation
dynamics.ThereisverylimitedbaselinedataonbulltroutwithintheStillaguamishwatershed.Currentspecies
populationstatusisunknown.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassification
usedbyNatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperature
bin,thusleadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,we
donotpresentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1HO0rGs
4
SIRC(2005)
52
Canada Goose
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:CanadaGoose
ScientificName:Brantacanadensis
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
TheCanadagoosereceivedaCCVIrankingof
presumedstableforbothtimehorizonsevaluated
(2050sand2080s).Thisstablevulnerabilityranking
isaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflyto
newlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:PaulSullivan
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theCanadagoosehasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
inthepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–Neutral
DuringbreedingandwinteringtheCanadagooseinhabitscoastalareas:mudflats,shallowtidal
waters,andsalt-watermarsheswithextensivebedsofbulrushandcordgrassnearoradjacentto
agriculturalfieldsofgrainorcovercrops.Climatechangemayaffectthesuitabilityofthishabitat.34
Itisnotlinkedtoparticulardisturbanceregimes,althoughchangesinfloodfrequencyand/or
intensitycouldnegativelyaffecthabitatqualityfortheCanadagoose.4
Thespeciesisprimarilydependentupongrasses,sedges,andothermonocotsduringsummerand
spring.Infallandwinter,grains,berries,andseedsareincreasinglyimportantforhighcarbohydrate
content.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fmaynegatively
impactthisspecies,especiallyduringthebreedingseason.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-free
periodmayalsofacilitatethespreadofcold-limiteddiseases.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknownifCanadageeseareexhibitingphenologicalresponsetochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassification
usedbyNatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperature
bin,thusleadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,we
donotpresentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/682/articles/introduction
4
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/branta-canadensis
53
Canada Lynx
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:CanadaLynx
ScientificName:LynxCanadensis
CCVI1Ranking2050sA1B:HighlyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2050sA2:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080sA1B:ExtremelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080sA2:ExtremelyVulnerable
TheCanadalynxreceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderately/highly Photo:KeithWilliams vulnerableforthe2050s,andextremelyvulnerableforthe
2080s.Thesehighvulnerabilityrankingsaretheresultofthespecies’preferenceforcoolhabitatsin
subalpineandalpineregions,aswellasthespecies’dependenceonsnow.
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Unlikelytoventureoutsideofthealpine/subalpineecosystemswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.
Primarilyresidesinthealpine/subalpineregion.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–IncreaseVulnerability
•
DependenceonIce/Snow–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Roads,andindustrialorurbandevelopmentcanactasbarrierstodispersal.2
TheCanadalynxismostlyfoundinalpineandsubalpinemountainforests,whicharesensitiveto
climatechange.2
Fireandwindhavethepotentialtonegativelyaffectalpineandsubalpinemountainforests,akey
habitattypefortheCanadalynxintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
Snowfallandhabitatstructuremayinfluencelynxdistributionatcoarseandfinescales.Various
featuresofthesnowmayinfluencelynxinteractionwithitsmainpreyspecies,thesnowshoehare.2
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Adecreaseinthesnowpack,anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°F,andadecreaseinthenumber
ofnightsbelow10°Fwillallnegativelyimpactthisspecies.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-free
periodmayalsofacilitatethespreadofcold-limiteddiseasesandaffectfoodresources.Anincreasein
theareaburnedmayalsonegativelyimpactavailablehabitatduringthesummer.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknowniftheCanadalynxisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://bit.ly/1NPmFGg
54
Cassin’s Finch
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Cassin’sFinch
ScientificName:Haemorhouscassinii
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
TheCassin’sfinchreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable/
Photo:MaggieSmith increaselikelyforthe2050s,andpresumedstableforthe
2080s.Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthe
species’flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditions
changeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theCassin’sfinchhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
2
inthepast50years. •
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
TheCassin’sfinchisphysiologicallysensitivetohightemperatures,andhasapreferenceforhigher
elevationswhenbreeding.UnlikePurpleandHousefinches,bothofwhichincreaseoxygen
consumptionathighertemperaturesindryair,Cassin’sFinchappearstoregulatebodytemperature
onlybycontinuingtodepressmetabolismastemperatureincreases.3
Thoughdispersalhasnotbeenwellstudied,Cassin’sFinchappearstobebothanaltitudinaland
latitudinalmigrantthroughoutitsrange.Birdsmovetolowerelevationsinfall,butsomeindividuals
canbefoundinbreedingareasinfallandwinter,indicatingthatsomebirdsmaynotmigrateatall.4
ThedietoftheCassin’sfinchismainlycomprisedofvegetablematter,particularlybuds,berries,and
otherfruits,seeds,someinsects.Foragesmostlyonground;removesseedsfromopencones,and
insectsfromconiferfoliage.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fwillnegatively
impactthisheat-intolerantspecies.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayalsofacilitate
thespreadofcold-limiteddiseasesandaffectfoodresources.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
negativelyimpactavailablehabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknowniftheCassin’sfinchisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperature
orprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/carpodacus-cassinii
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/240/articles/introduction
55
Broadleaf Cattail Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:BroadleafCattail
ScientificName:Typhalatifolia
Thebroadleafcattailisabletogerminateinawidevarietyenvironmental
conditions,makingthespeciessomewhatresilienttoenvironmental
perturbationsstemmingfromclimatechange.Whilethespeciesistolerant
offluctuatingwaterlevels,documentedcasesofplantmortalityhavebeen
reportedforcertainfloodlevels.
KeySensitivities
• Dispersal/Movement–Neutral
Broadleafcattailseedsaretransportedbywind,water,andsubstrate
movement.Acheneshavenumerouslongslenderhairsatthebase
thatallowfruitstofloatonwaterandblowinthewind.Seedsarealso
dispersedthroughsoilmovementwhenmudclingstoanimalsor
people.Broadleafcattailproducesabundantseeds.1
•
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Broadleafcattailistolerantoffluctuatingwaterlevelsandsome
flooding(standshavebeendocumentedgrowingin3feetofwater(1
meter));however,deathorcolonizationfailurehasoccurredatflood
levelsaslowas25inches(63cm).Thespeciesisdescribedasfairly
droughttolerant.1 Photo:MichaelPierce
UncommonGeologicFeature–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
Broadleafcattailseedsgerminatebestinwarmtemperaturesandhighlightconditions.Seeds
germinateinacid,basic,orneutralpHconditions,andashextractshaveincreasedbroadleafcattail
germination.Reducedoxygenlevelsthroughthemanipulationofgasesintheairorthrough
submersionhavealsoincreasedbroadleafcattailgerminationsuccess.1
AdditionalClimaticFactorsThatMayInfluenceVulnerability
Althoughthisspeciesissomewhattolerantofflooding,earlierspringsnowmeltandpotentiallyhigher
winterstreamflowcouldadverselyaffectcattailreproductionandsurvival.Lowsummersreamflows
couldalsonegativelyimpactthisspeciesinwatershedsfedatleastinpartbysnowmelt.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.
1
ForestServiceDatabasehttp://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/graminoid/typlat/all.html
56
Chinook Salmon
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:ChinookSalmon
ScientificName:Oncorhynchustshawytscha
CCVI1Ranking2050s:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080s:ExtremelyVulnerable
Photo:USFWS
ChinooksalmonreceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderatelyvulnerableforthe2050s,andextremely
vulnerableforthe2080s.Thesehighvulnerabilityrankingsaretheresultofthespecies’sensitivityto
watertemperaturesanddisturbanceregimes. KeySensitivitiesandExposures
• ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Seawalldevelopment,whichprimarilyaffectsthenearshoreareasthatjuvenilesalmonidsrelyonin
theircriticalearlymarinelifestage,couldimpedeChinooksalmonmovementandmigration.2
• AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.However,
smalldiversionstructuressuchastheCookSloughweirandtheGraniteFallsfishwayposesomefish
passageproblems.Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactasfishpassagebarriers.
• PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Chinooksalmonrequirelarge,deepcoldpoolsforholdingpriortospawning.3Constantwater
temperaturesabove9-10°CmayreducesurvivalofChinookembryosandalevins.4Migration
blockagescanoccurwhenwatertemperaturesexceed21°C.Migrationblockagesordelayscan
contributetoreproductivefailure.5
• PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Successfuladultupstreammigrationrequiresadequatewaterqualityandsuitablestreamflowvelocity,
temperature,coveranddepth.Chinooksalmonalsorequirelarge,deep,coldpoolsforholdingpriorto
spawning.Substratecompositionisalsoanimporthabitatrequirementforsalmonduringspawning.6
• Disturbance–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
ChinooksalmonintheNorthForkoftheStillaguamishRiverselectspawningareasassociatedwithtail
outs,riffles,andbarsindeeperportionsofthelow-flowchannelarea.Theselocationsarevulnerableto
theeffectsoflatefallandwinterflooding;excessivesedimentcansmothereggsandfloodingcandestroy
redds.6Lowflowsinsummerimpactwateravailabilityforadultmigrationandspawning.
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingstreamtemperaturesanddecliningsnowpackwillaffecttheabilityofthisspeciestosurviveinsome
streams.Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowcouldscourstreams,loweringreproductivesuccess.
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandsedimentationcouldreducefoodresources.
FutureResearchNeeds
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)forthe
2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2and
mediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServe
putsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparateresultsfor
eachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1TmvYBd
4
Richter,A.,Kolmes,S.2003.AppendixL:MaximumTemperature:Upperoptimaltemperaturelimitsforsalmonidsinthe
WillametteandlowerColumbiaRivers.http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/trt/wlc/viability_criteria.cfm
5
McCullough,D.A.1999.Areviewandsynthesisofeffectsofalterationsofthewatertemperatureregimeonfreshwater
lifestagesofsalmonids,withspecialreferencetochinooksalmon.USEPAReport910-R-99-010.279p.
6
SIRC(2005)
57
Coho Salmon
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
ItisunknownifChinooksalmonareexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
58
Coho Salmon
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:CohoSalmon
ScientificName:Oncorhynchuskisutch
CCVI1Ranking2050s:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080s:ExtremelyVulnerable
CohosalmonreceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderately
Photo:OregonBLM
vulnerableforthe2050sandextremelyvulnerablefor
the2080s.Thishighvulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’dependenceoncoldwater
temperaturesandsufficientstreamflowlevelsformigration.
KeySensitivitiesandExposures
• ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Seawalldevelopment,whichprimarilyaffectsthenearshoreareasthatjuvenilesalmonidsrelyonin
theircriticalearlymarinelifestage,couldalsoimpedeCohosalmonmovementandmigration.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.However,
smalldiversionstructuressuchastheCookSloughweirandtheGraniteFallsfishwayposesomefish
passageproblems.Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactasfishpassagebarriers.3
Cohosalmonrequirecoldtributaries,between6to12°C.4
AdultCohomigrateupstreamstypicallyinlatesummerandfallwhenheavyfallrainsresultinflows
strongenoughtoallowspawninginthesmallertributaries.Thesalmonspawninstreams,generally
inforestedareas,inloosecoarsegravelatheadsofrifflesinroundedtroughsexcavatedbyfemales
wherewateris10to54cmdeep.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowcouldscourstreamsandleadtolower
reproductivesuccess.Warmingstreamtemperaturesanddecliningsnowpackmayalsoaffecttheability
ofthespeciestosurviveinsomestreams.Anincreaseinoceantemperaturescouldreducefood
resources.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknownifCohosalmonaredependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedby
climatechange.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassification
usedbyNatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperature
bin,thusleadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,we
donotpresentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
3
SalmonHabitatLimitingFactorsFinalReport
4
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1HinaDW
59
Common Goldeneye
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:CommonGoldeneye
ScientificName:Bucephalaclangula
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
ThecommongoldeneyereceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
Photo:RickLeche
stable/increaselikelyforbothtimehorizonsevaluated
(2050sand2080s).Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietandmovement
capabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thecommongoldeneyehasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
2
variationinthepast50years. •
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–Neutral
•
Dispersal/Movements–DecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–Neutral
Thecommongoldeneyereliesonprimarilymarinehabitatsthroughoutthewinterrange.Mainly
occursinshallowcoastalbays,estuariesofAtlanticandPacificcoasts,whereveradequatefoodis
found.Becausewinterdietislargelymollusksandcrustaceans,itprefersforagingoversandy,gravel,
rocky,orbouldersubstratesinrelativelyshallowwaterswheresuchpreyareconcentrated.3(Cornell
Ornithology).Specieshaslittleornodependenceonastronglyseasonalhydrologicregimeand/ora
specificaquatic/wetlandhabitatorlocalizedmoistureregimethatishighlyvulnerabletolossor
reductionwithclimatechange.2
Allpopulationsmigrate,generallyshorttointermediatedistances.Abroad-frontmigrantovermost
ofitsrange,butmajorrivers,lakechains,andcoastlinesprovideafocusformovements.3
Duringwinter,foraginghabitatonsaltwaterincludesrockyshorelines,musselbeds,mudflats,and
estuaries.Winterdietislargelymollusksandcrustaceans.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandtheacidityofmarinewaterscouldnegativelyaffectfood
resources,suchasmollusksandcrustaceans.Coastalfloodingandsedimentationmayalsoadversely
impactwinteringhabitatalongtheshoreline.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthecommongoldeneyeisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobe
impactedbyclimatechange.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/170/articles/introduction
60
Elk
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:Elk
ScientificName:Cervuscanadensis
Elkhaveaflexibledietandexcellentmovementcapabilities,
whichenablethemtomigratetonewlocationsasconditions
changeovertime.Elkarenotrestrictedtoanarrowthermal
niche,andcouldpotentiallytolerateincreasesintemperature
betterthanaspeciesthatisconfinedtoanarrowthermal
niche.
KeySensitivities
• Diet–Neutral
Thereissignificantvariationintheelkdiet.Thespeciesis
primarilyagrazer,butalsoconsumesforbs(insummer)
Photo:GrandCanyonNationalPark
andmaybrowseonwillow,aspen,oak,wheregrassesare
unavailable.Elkalsocommonlyfeedsonmushrooms,especiallyinlatesummerandfall.1
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–Neutral
Themaximumannualdispersaldistanceofelkisestimatedtobebetween25and50km.2
Inmountainousregions,elkwillsummerinalpinemeadows,andwintersinvalleys.Onmorelevel
terrain,thespeciesseekswoodedhillsidesinsummer,opengrasslandsinwinter.Pacificcoast
populationsaremoresedentarythanarethoseelsewhere.1Itisevidentthatthespeciesdistribution
isnotsignificantlyaffectedbythermalcharacteristicswithintheassessmentarea.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducefoodresourcesandleadto
populationdeclines.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayfacilitatethespreadof
diseasesthatwerepreviouslylimitedbycoldtemperatures.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
affectforaginghabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangemapsareneededforelk.Itisunknownifelkareexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochanging
seasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.Itisunknownifthisspeciesisdependentona
disturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedbyclimatechange.
1
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1KQcCTv
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/518
3
Youngetal.(2011)
2
61
Evergreen Huckleberry
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:EvergreenHuckleberry
ScientificName:Vacciniumovatum
Theevergreenhuckleberryissensitivetofire,which
candelayberryproduction.Huckleberries(Vaccinium
spp.)aresensitivetosoilpH,andwillonlythrivein
acidicconditions.Thisacidicsoilrequirementcould
makemigrationtonewlocationsmorechallenging.
KeySensitivities
• Disturbance–SomewhatIncrease
Vulnerability
Photo:JamesGaither
Berryproductioninmostevergreenhuckleberriesisgenerallydelayedforatleast5yearsafterafire.
Onsomesitesproductionmaybereducedfor20yearsorlonger.1
•
PollinatorVersatility–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Dependenceonothersforpropaguledispersal–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
UncommonGeologicFeature–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Evergreenhuckleberryflowersareborneattheleafaxilsinclustersof3to10andareprimarily
pollinatedbylong-tonguedbeessuchasbumblebees.1Pollinatorsarealsosusceptibletotheeffects
ofclimatechange.Mismatchesbetweenpollinatoractivityandplantfloweringcanreducethe
effectivenessofpollination.2
Evergreenhuckleberryseedsaredispersedbyawidevarietyofbirdsandmammals.Birddispersers
includethrushes,ptarmigans,towhees,ring-neckpheasant,andspruce,riffed,blue,andsharp-tailed
grouse..Mammaldispersersincludetheblackbear,chipmunks,redfox,squirrels,grayfox,and
skunks.1
Huckleberries(Vacciniumspp.)requireacidicconditionsandcanthrivewherepHrangesfrom4.3to
5.2.Theseshrubsrequirerelativelysmallamountsofmanyessentialelementsandarecapableof
growingonmanyrelativelyinfertilesoils.Evergreenhuckleberrycommonlyoccursonnitrogen-poor
soils.Itgrowsonwell-drainedsandyandgravellysoils,andonsiltyloam,butgenerallyreaches
greatestabundanceonsandysoils.1
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseintheareaburnedmaynegativelyimpactplantreproductionandberryproduction.Alonger
summerdroughtperiodwouldreducesoilmoistureandalsolimitgrowthandreproductioninthefuture.
Coastalfloodingcouldalsoaffectshorelinepopulations.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.
1
2
ForestServiceDatabasehttp://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/shrub/vacova/all.html
StillaguamishTribalStaff–PersonalCommunication
62
Forage Fish
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:ForageFish(PacificSandLance,
SurfSmelt,PacificHerring)
ScientificName:Ammodyteshexapterus,
Hypomesuspretiosus,Clupeapallasii
Foragefishschoolinbaysandinletsofmarine
waters,andspawnonbeachesinshallowwater
duringhightide.Juveniles,whoresideinnearshore
waters,maybevulnerabletoclimatechange
mitigationefforts(seawalls),whichcannegatively
impactfishmovement.
KeySensitivities
• DietaryVersatility-Neutral
Photo:ManyLindeberg,NOAA
Surfsmeltconsumecrustaceans,copepods,amphipods,crabs,larvae,andeuphausiids.3Theflexible
dietofforagefishenablethespeciestorespondtoclimatemediatedshiftsinpreyabundanceand
availability.Manyofthespeciesthatmakeupthedietofforagefisharecurrentlybeingimpactedby
oceanacidification.4
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability Pacificherringliveincoastalwatersandoftenoccuroffshore.Adultsmovetowardshoreandenter
baysandestuariespriortospawning.Eggsarestickyandadheretoeelgrass,kelp,andotherobjects.
Juvenilescongregateinbays,inlets,andchannelsinsummer.5Surfsmeltareanear-shorespecies
thatoccursinmarine,sometimesbrackishwaters.Thisspeciesspawnsonsandandgravelbeachesin
lighttomoderatesurf,duringincomingorhightide.3
Themodificationsresultingfromseawalldevelopmentprimarilyoccuralongthenearshoreareathat
foragefishrelyon.Seawalldevelopmentcouldimpedeforagefishmovement.6
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandaciditycouldadverselyaffectthefoodresourcesofforagefish,
suchasinsectsandcrustaceans.Coastalfloodingandsedimentationwouldlikelyimpacttheirhabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangedataareneededforthesespecies.Itisunknownifforagefisharedependentonadisturbance
regimethatislikelytobeimpactedbyclimatechange.Itisalsounknownifforagefishareexhibiting
phenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1LWPouh
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
5
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1JZRHKO
6
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
4
63
Gray-Crowned Rosy Finch Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Gray-crownedRosy-Finch
ScientificName:Leucostictetephrocotis
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:ModeratelyVulnerable
Thegray-crownedrosy-finchreceivedaCCVIrankingof
presumedstableforthe2050s,andmoderatelyvulnerablefor
the2080s.Thismoderatelyvulnerablerankingforthe2080s
Photo:JohnMatthews isaresultofthespecies’preferenceforcoolorcoldalpine
habitats.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thegray-crownedrosy-finchhasexperiencedslightlylowerthanaverage(47.1-57°
F/26.3-31.8°C)temperaturevariationinthepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
•
DependenceonIce/Snow–IncreaseVulnerability
Thegray-crownedrosy-finchismostlyfoundinalpineareas,usuallynearsnowfieldsorglaciers,talus,
rockpiles,andcliffs.Itistypicallyfoundatorabovethetimberline(CornellOrnithology).Thegraycrownedrosy-finchispossiblythehighest-altitudebreedingbirdinNorthAmerica.3
Thegray-crownedrosy-finchforagesonopenground,amongrocksontalus,andonopensnowfields
andglaciers.Itoftenforagesalongtheedgeofrecedingsnowoncutwormsandgerminatingseeds.
Thespecieshasbeenobservedeatingsnowcrystals.34
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Gray-crownedrosy-finchesusealpinehabitatsforwinteringandachangeinthesnowpackand/ora
changeinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayaffectthisspecies.Warmingtemperaturesmayalso
affecttheircurrentdistribution.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthegray-crownedrosy-finchisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobe
impactedbyclimatechange.Itisunknownifthegray-crownedrosy-finchisexhibitingphenological
responsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/559/articles/introduction
4
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/leucosticte-tephrocotistephrocotis
64
Great Blue Heron
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:GreatBlueHeron
ScientificName:ArdeaHerodias
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThegreatblueheronreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstablefor
bothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsas
conditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:AndreaWestmoreland Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thegreatblueheronhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–Neutral
Thegreatblueherondependsoncoastallowlands,marshes,estuaries,vernalpools,andsprings,all
ofwhicharesensitivetoclimatechange.Precipitationcouldaffectkeyhabitatcharacteristicsofthe
greatblueheron.3
Thegreatblueheroneatsfishes,insects,crustaceans,amphibians,reptiles,mice,shrews,andother
animals.Heronsforagemostlywhilestandinginwater,butalsoinfieldsandsometimesdropping
fromairorperchintowater.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandtheacidityofmarinewaterscouldnegativelyaffectsomefood
resources,suchasfishandcrustaceans.Coastalfloodingandsedimentationmayalsoadverselyimpact
foraginghabitatalongtheshoreline,particularlyrookeries.Decliningsummerprecipitationandalonger
dryseasoncouldreduceinlandhabitatandfoodresources.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthegreatblueheronisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/ardea-herodias
4
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1LXsHqX
65
Greater Scaup
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:GreaterScaup
ScientificName:Aythyamarila
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThegreaterscaupreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforbothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).
Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’
flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableitto
flytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
Photo:PaulSullivan KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• SeaLevelRise–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Projectedlevelsofsealevelrisebythe2080sfortheStillaguamishwatershedshowthat10-49%of
thegreaterscauprangeoccursinareasubjecttosealevelrise(inthecoastalzone).23
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thegreaterscauphasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
inthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
Thegreaterscaupfeedsonaquaticplantsandanimals.Incoastalregionsmollusks(clams,scallops,
mussels,etc.)compriseasignificantportionofthedietofthegreaterscaup.Inotherareasiteats
seeds,leaves,andstemsofplants(sedges,pondweeds,muskgrass,wildcelery,etc.).4
Thegreaterscaupisamigratorybirdandischaracterizedbyexcellentmovementcapability.25
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandanincreaseintheacidityofmarinewaterswilllikelyaffectthefood
resourcesofthisspecies.Additionally,coastalfloodingandanincreaseinsedimentationcouldhaveadverse
effectsonitsabilitytoforage.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthegreaterscaupisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedby
climatechange.Itisunknownifthegreaterscaupisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
NOAASeaLevelRiseViewerhttp://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr
4
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1G8bAdO
5
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/650/articles/introduction
66
Green Sturgeon
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:GreenSturgeon
ScientificName:Acipensermedirostris
Thegreensturgeonspendsmostofitslifeincoastalmarinewaters,
ascendingtoriverstospawn.Climatechangemitigationefforts,
suchasseawalldevelopments,havethepotentialtonegatively
affectthedispersal/migrationabilitiesofthespecies.
KeySensitivities
• ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Themodificationsresultingfromseawalldevelopmentprimarily
occuralongthenearshoreareathatgreensturgeonrelyonin
theircriticalmarinelifestage.Seawalldevelopmentcould
impedegreensturgeonmovementandmigrationduring
specificlife-stages.1
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–Unknown
Photo:CaliforniaDFW
ardDeakins TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.TheCook
Sloughweirislikelytoohighinthewatershedtoposepassageproblemsforthegreensturgeon.
Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactasfishpassagebarriers.2
Greensturgeonspendmostoftheirlivesincoastalmarinewaters,estuaries,andthelowerreaches
oflargerivers.Theyascendriverstospawn,butspecificspawningandrearinghabitatsarepoorly
known.3ThelowerflowsintheStillaguamishhaveledtoshallowerdistributarychannelsandthe
shallowwaterandincreasedwatertemperaturesmaybeaffectingsturgeon.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandaciditycouldadverselyaffectfoodresources.Coastalflooding
andsedimentationmayimpacthabitatforjuveniles.Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspring
streamflowcouldscourstreamsandleadtolessreproductivesuccess.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangemapsareneededforthisspecies.Whileverylittleisknownabouthabitatsrequirementsand
lifehistorycharacteristicsforthegreensturgeon,3itislikelythattheyaresimilartothoseofthewhite
sturgeon.4
1
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
SalmonHabitatLimitingFactorsFinalReport
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1D2bF2I
4StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
2
67
Grizzly Bear
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:GrizzlyBear
ScientificName:Ursusarctoshorribilis
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking:2080s:ModeratelyVulnerable
ThegrizzlybearreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable
forthe2050s,andmoderatelyvulnerableforthe2080s.The
highervulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies
occurrenceincoolalpineandsubalpineforests,whichare
sensitivetoclimatechange,andthespecies’sensitivitytofire. Photo:TerryTollefsbol-USFWS KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
Roads,industrialorurbandevelopment,suburbanorruralresidentialdevelopmentcanactas
barrierstodispersal.2
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thegrizzlybearhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariationin
thepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.3
Thegrizzlybearismostlyfoundinalpineandsubalpinemountainforests,whicharesensitiveto
climatechange.2
Firehasthepotentialtoaffectsubalpinemountainforests,akeyhabitattypeforthegrizzlybearin
theStillaguamishwatershed.2Insectinfestationsmayalsocreateforestfragmentsthatcouldimpact
habitat.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°F,andadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fwillnegatively
impactthegrizzlybear.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayalsofacilitatethespread
ofcold-limiteddiseasesandpotentiallyshortenitshibernation.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
negativelyimpactavailablehabitatduringthesummer.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthegrizzlybearisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtothebaselineaveragebetween1961and1990)
forthe2050sand2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissions
scenarioA2andmediumemissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassification
usedbyNatureServeputsthetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperature
bin,thusleadingtoidenticalCCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,we
donotpresentseparateresultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/68
3
Youngetal.(2011)
4
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
68
Marbled Murrelet
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:MarbledMurrelet
ScientificName:Brachyramphusmarmoratus
CCVIRanking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVI1Ranking2080s:HighlyVulnerable
ThemarbledmurreletreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable
Photo:TomBenson forthe2050s,andhighlyvulnerableforthe2080s.Thehigher
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’dependenceonlimitedtreespeciesinold-growthforests
toprovidenestingplatforms,aswellasthespecies’sensitivitytofireandwinddisturbance.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche-IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,themarbledmurrelethasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
• Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Marbledmurreletnestinghabitatissensitivetofire,wind,disease,andpestdisturbance.High
intensitywindcanblowdownnestingtrees.Firesinoldgrowthforestswillreducetheamountof
nestinghabitat.3
• Dependenceonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Therequiredbreedinghabitatforthemarbledmurreletisprimarilygeneratedbyafewspeciesof
largetreesinoldgrowthforeststoprovidesuitablenestingplatforms.Nestsoftenareinmature/old
growthconiferousforestnearthecoast:onlargemossyhorizontalbranch,mistletoeinfection,
witchesbroom,orotherstructureprovidingaplatformhighinmatureconifer4.
• Diet–IncreaseVulnerability
Murreletsaretightlylinkedtooffshoredistributionofsuitableprey(foragefish)3.Thespecieshas
alsobeendocumentedeatingcrustaceans(mysids,euphausiids),andmollusks4.Lackoffood
availabilityishavingasignificantimpactonthemarbledmurrelet.Thespecieswilldeferbreeding
duringfoodshortages5.
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandtheacidificationofmarinewaterscouldnegativelyaffectfoodresources,
suchasfishandsomecrustaceans.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmaynegativelyimpactbreedingandnesting
habitats.
FutureResearchNeeds
Fogisanimportantfactorshapingmarbledmurreletnestinghabitat,becauseitfavorsgrowthofmosseson
horizontalbranchesthatmurreletspreferasnestsites.Littleisknownabouthowfuturechangesinclimatewill
affectcoastalfogpatterns,andhowthismayimpactmurreletnestinghabitatsuitability.Itisunknownifthereisa
cost-benefitrelationshipassociatedwithtraveldistancebetweenafoodsourceandnestingsiteforthemarbled
murrelet.Evidencesuggeststhatmurreletsmayattempttoshortenfeedingtraveldistance,andthereforeselect
nestingplatformsinyoungerforestsclosertofoodsources,therebyavoidingolderforestslocatedfurtherinlandin
theStillaguamishwatershed.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/555
4
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1eHBAXt
5
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
69
Mountain Goat
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:MountainGoat
ScientificName:Oreamnosamericanus
CCVI1Ranking2050sA1B:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2050sA2:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080sA1B:ExtremelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080sA2:ExtremelyVulnerable
Photo:RichardDeakins ThemountaingoatreceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderately
vulnerableandpresumedstableforthe2050s,andextremelyvulnerableforthe2080s.Thesehigh
vulnerabilityrankingsarearesultofthespecies’preferenceforcoolalpineandsubalpinemountain
forests,aswellasthespecies’sensitivitytofire,whichhasthepotentialtonegativelyaffectthespecies’
habitat.
KeySensitivities
• NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
LowelevationrivervalleysoftheFrasierandOkanaganactaspartialbarrierstomovementthat
increaseisolationbetweentheCascadeRangeandhabitattothenorthinBritishColumbia.
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysicalHabitat–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Roads,industrialorurbandevelopment,suburbanorruralresidentialdevelopment,andagriculture
actasbarrierstodispersal.2Interstate90,and,increasingly,StateHighway2,presentsignificant
dispersalbarriers.
Themountaingoatisphysiologicallyadaptedtocoldalpineandsubalpinehabitats,whichare
sensitivetoclimatechange.Survivalhasbeennegativelycorrelatedwithwarmsummer
temperatures.
Fire,windthrow,disease,andpestshavethepotentialtoreducetheareaofsubalpinemountain
forests,akeywinterhabitattypeforthemountaingoatintheStillaguamishwatershed.
Themountaingoatdependsonsteepterraintoavoidpredators.3,4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayfacilitatethespreadofcold-limiteddiseasesandaffectfood
resources,suchashigh-elevationplants.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmaynegativelyimpactavailablewinter
habitat.Treelineencroachmentonalpineandsubalpinemeadowsmayreducesummerforagingopportunities.
AerialsurveysintheStillaguamishwatersheddetectedgoatsatlowerelevations.Ifthisretreattolowerelevations
5
becomesmorefrequent,therewillbeinanincreaseintheriskofcougarpredation. FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthemountaingoatisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperature
orprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/102
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1Hfkwjg
4
Youngetal.(2013)
5
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
70
Mountain Lion
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:MountainLion
ScientificName:Pumaconcolor
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThemountainlionreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforbothtimehorizonsevaluated(2050sand2080s).
Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’
flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableitto
movetonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:LarryMaster
Roads,industrialorurbandevelopment,suburbanorruralresidentialdevelopmentcanactas
barrierstodispersal.2
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–Neutral
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,themountainlionhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
inthepast50years.3
Themountainlion’smaximumannualdispersalisestimatedtobegreaterthan100km.24Dispersal
maybeaffectedbylossoftravelcorridorsifforestsbecomefragmentedbyfireordisease.5
Themountainlionisahighlyopportunisticfeeder,consumingawidevarietyofvertebrateprey.Their
primaryfoodisdeerinmanyareas.2
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducefoodresourcesandleadto
populationdeclines.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayfacilitatethespreadof
diseasesthatwerepreviouslylimitedbycoldtemperatures.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
reduceavailabilityofpreyandhabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthemountainlionisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedby
climatechange.Itisunknownifthemountainlionisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochanging
seasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/puma-concolor
3
Youngetal.(2011)
4
Territorialityofthemountainlionisnottakenintoconsiderationwhendiscussingdispersal/movement.
5
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
71
Northern Flying Squirrel
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:NorthernFlyingSquirrel
ScientificName:Glaucomyssabrinus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:HighlyVulnerable
ThenorthernflyingsquirrelreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable
forthe2050s,andhighlyvulnerableforthe2080s.Thehigh
vulnerabilityrankingattheendofthecenturyisaresultofthespecies’
specificdiet,andthenarrowthermalnichethatthespecieshas
occupiedoverthepast50years.
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Riversandareasthatarelackingordevoidoftreesarebarriersto
dispersal.2,3
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:LarryMaster
Roadsandagricultureactasbarrierstodispersal.2
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thenorthernflyingsquirrelhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.4
Somewhatsensitivetofire,wind,anddrought.Summerdroughtcanresultinlowerfungal
production.Fireandwindhavethepotentialtoaffectnorthernflyingsquirrelforesthabitat.2
Foragingdependencymakesthisspeciesmoreofaspecialist.Thenorthernflyingsquirrelspecializes
inectomycorrhizalfungiandlichens.2
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fmaynegativelyimpact
thisspecies.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayalsofacilitatethespreadofcold-limited
diseasesandaffectfoodresources.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalsonegativelyimpactavailable
habitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthenorthernflyingsquirrelisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.Itisunknownifdeclinesinspottedowls(apredatorofthenorthern
flyingsquirrel)willhaveanimpactonnorthernflyingsquirrelpopulations.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/glaucomys-sabrinus
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1eX1mqK
4
Youngetal.(2011)
72
Northern Goshawk
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:NorthernGoshawk
ScientificName:Accipitergentilis
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
ThenortherngoshawkreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable
/increaselikelyforthe2050sandthe2080s.Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsas
conditionschangeovertime. Photo:SteveGarvie
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thenortherngoshawkhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.2
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–Neutral
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
Forestpondsorsmall,ephemeralstreamstoamajorriverorlargelake-areoftenpresentnearnest
sites,butarenotahabitatrequirement.Goshawksbatheorwadeinwater,butthebenefit,ifany,is
unknown.3Thespecieshaslittleornodependenceonastronglyseasonalhydrologicregimeand/ora
specificaquatic/wetlandhabitatorlocalizedmoistureregimethatishighlyvulnerabletolossor
reductionwithclimatechange.Hydrologicalrequirementsarenotlikelytobesignificantlydisrupted
inmajorportionoftherange.2
Thenortherngoshawkisnotlinkedtoparticulardisturbanceregimes,althoughchangesinfire
frequencycouldnegativelyaffecthabitatqualityforthenortherngoshawk.4
Thenortherngoshawkisanopportunistichunterandkillsawidediversityofprey.Mainfoods
includegroundandtreesquirrels,rabbitsandhares,largepasserines,woodpeckers,gamebirds,and
corvids;occasionallyreptilesandinsects.45
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofhotdaysandwarmnightsmayaffecttheabilityofthisspeciestoforage.An
increaseintheareaburnedmayalsoaffectitsavailablehabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthenortherngoshawkisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/298/articles/introduction
4
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/accipiter-gentilis-0
5
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1eJSMLU
73
Northern Pintail
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:NorthernPintail
ScientificName:Anasacuta
CCVI1Ranking2050sA1B:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2050sA2:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080sA1B:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080sA2:PresumedStable
ThenorthernpintailreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforbothemissionsscenariosevaluatedinthe
2050sand2080s.Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisa
resultofthespecies’flexibledietandmovement
capabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
Photo:RickLeche
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• SeaLevelRise–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
ProjectedsealevelrisefortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2080sshowthat10-49%ofthe
northernpintailrangeoccursinareasubjecttosealevelrise(inthecoastalzone).2
•
•
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thenorthernpintailhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.2
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Thenorthernpintailnestsinopencountrywithshallow,seasonal,orintermittentwetlandsandlow
vegetation.Northernpintailarealsodependentonwetlandsandvernalpools,whicharesensitiveto
climatechange.3
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Floodingandwindhavethepotentialtonegativelyaffectnorthernpintailhabitat.Annualnest
successandproductivityvarywithwaterconditions,predation,andweather.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingoceantemperaturesandanincreaseintheacidityofmarinewatersmayimpactfood
resources,suchasinsects,crustaceans,andsnails.Coastalfloodingandsedimentationmayalsoaffectits
abilitytoforageforfood.Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreduceinland
habitatandfoodresources.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthenorthernpintailisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).
2
Youngetal.(2013)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/anas-acuta
74
Northern Shoveler
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:NorthernShoveler
ScientificName:Anasclypeata
Thenorthernshovelerhasaflexibledietandexcellent
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocations
asconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Photo:VitaliiKhustochka Thenorthernshovelerisclassifiedasanopportunisticfeeder.Thedietismainlycomprisedof
invertebratesandseeds.12Invertebratecommunitiesmaybeimpactedbyclimatechange.3
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
•
UncommonGeologicalFeatures–DecreaseVulnerability
Thenorthernshovelerisclassifiedasanannualmigrantthroughoutmostofitsrange,andhas
excellentdispersalcapabilities.However,thenorthernshovelerisayear-roundresidentwithinthe
StillaguamishWatershed.
Thenorthernshoveleroccupiesbothfreshwaterandbrackishhabitats.Ithasbeenobservedina
varietyofwetlandhabitatsincludingprairiepotholes,salinewetlands,andcoastalmarshes.
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperatureswilllikelyaffectthefoodresourcesofthisspecies.Additionally,
coastalfloodingandanincreaseinsedimentationcouldhaveadverseeffectsonitsabilitytoforage.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.Itisunknownifthenorthernshovelerisdependenton
adisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedbyclimatechange.Itisunknownifthenorthern
shovelerisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitation
dynamics.
1
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/217/articles/introduction
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1f8lQwC
3
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
75
2
Olive-Sided Flycatcher
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Olive-sidedFlycatcher
ScientificName:Contopuscooperi
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
Theolive-sidedflycatcherreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stable/increaselikelyforthe2050sandthe2080s.Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsas
conditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:JonNelson Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theolive-sidedflycatcherhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.2
•
Disturbance–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movements–DecreaseVulnerability
Thespeciesmaypreferhabitatrecentlyburnedbymediumtohighseverityfiresduetothecreation
ofopeningsandremnantsnagsthatmayserveasperchesforsingingandhunting.3
Almostexclusivelyconsumesflyinginsects.4
Long-distance,completemigrantbetweenitsNorthAmericanbreedinggroundsandCentraland
SouthAmericanwinteringgrounds;longestmigrationrouteofanyflycatcherbreedinginNorth
America.4Nonotedbarrierstodispersal.3Extremestormeventsduringmigrationincreasethe
vulnerabilityoftheolive-sidedflycatcherduringperiodsoffallout.5
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingtemperaturesmayaffecttheircurrentdistribution,foodresources,andleadtomorediseases.
Anincreaseinareaburnedmayimprovehabitatinsomeareas.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknowniftheolive-sidedflycatcherisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2013)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/560
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/502/articles/introduction
5
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
76
Oregon Spotted Frog
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:OregonSpottedFrog
ScientificName:Ranapretiosa
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:HighlyVulnerable
TheOregonspottedfrogreceivedaCCVIrankingof
presumedstableforthe2050s,andhighly
vulnerableforthe2080s.Thehighvulnerability
rankingattheendofthecenturycanbeattributed
tonaturalbarriersinlandscapethatpreventor
hinderspeciesmovementasconditionschangeover
time,andthespecificaquatichabitatrequirementsofthespecies.
Photo:StephenNyman
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Uplandhabitatdevoidornearlydevoidofwetlands,streams,pondsorlakes;andwidestreamsserve
asbarrierstodispersalfortheOregonspottedfrog.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
MajorhighwaysandurbandevelopmentsserveasbarrierstodispersalfortheOregonspottedfrog.2
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theOregonspottedfroghasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50years.3
TheOregonspottedfrogisahighlyaquaticspeciesthatgenerallyavoidsdryuplands.Breeding
usuallyoccursinshallowwaterinpools,ponds,orotherquietwaters,amongmoderateordense
herbaceousvegetation.ClimatechangeislikelytonegativelyaffecttheaquatichabitatoftheOregon
spottedfrog.23
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowanddecliningsnowpackcouldaffectsomeofthe
wetlandsandvernalpoolsthatthisspeciesrelieson.Warmingtemperaturesmayimpactwater
temperatureofbreedinghabitatsandleadtoanincreaseindiseases.
FutureResearchNeeds
ThephysiologicalthermalnicheisunknownfortheOregonspottedfrog.Itisalsounknownifthespecies
isdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedbyclimatechange.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1NWzuPQ
3
Youngetal.(2011)
77
Pacific Jumping Mouse
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:PacificJumpingMouse
ScientificName:Zapustrinotatus
ThePacificjumpingmouseresidesinalpineandmeadowhabitats
thataretypicallyclosetoawatersource.Anincreaseindrought
frequencymaynegativelyaffectthemost,riparianhabitatsthis
speciesdependson.
KeySensitivities
• Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
Photo:USForestService
Feedsprimarilyonseeds(e.g.,grasses,dock,andskunkcabbage).Alsoeatsberries,insects,and
somemossesandfungi.Rarelymayconsumebirdeggs.1
•
Dispersal/Movements–Neutral
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
PhenologicalResponse–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Dispersalbehaviorisunknown,butitislikelythatsomeindividualsperiodicallymoveordisperseat
leastseveralhundredmetersfromonelocationtoanother.1
ThePacificjumpingmouseoccursinalderandskunkcabbageripariancommunitiesinredwoodand
Douglas-firforests,alpineandothermoistmeadows,marshythickets,brushysuccessionalstagesof
coniferousandmixedforests;andtoalesserextentinlodegpolepineandSitkasprucecommunities,
andheadlandscrubandprairie.ThePacificjumpingmousealsonestsundergroundorconcealedin
vegetationonsurface.1
ThePacificjumpingmouseislikelytobesensitivetodroughtduetoitsdependenceonmoist,
riparianhabitats.1
Depositionoffatreservesdependsonavailabilityofplantseeds.Ashiftinthematurationofseeds
relativetohibernationforthePacificjumpingmousecouldresultinaphenologicalresource
mismatch.1
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingtemperatures,particularlyveryhotdaysandnights,maylimittheircurrentrange.Declining
snowpackandanincreaseinthelengthofthedroughtperiodmaynegativelyaffecttheirhabitat.
Warmingwintertemperaturesmayinterferewithhibernation.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangedataareneededforthePacificjumpingmouse.Itisunknownwhetherthismouseisdependent
onotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.ItisunknownifthePacificjumpingmouseisexhibitingphonological
responsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1QHceXu
78
Pacific Lamprey
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:PacificLamprey
ScientificName:Lampetratridentata
ThePacificlampreyspawnsincoldfreshwaterstreams,which
areprojectedtowarmasaresultofclimatechange.The
lampreyisalsovulnerabletoanthropogenicbarriers,suchas
seawallsandculverts,whichcanpreventpassagetoandfrom
spawningsites.
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:USFWS
Themodificationsresultingfromseawalldevelopmentprimarilyoccuralongthenearshoreareathat
Pacificlampreyrelyonformigrationtospawningsites.Seawalldevelopmentcouldimpedelamprey
movementandmigrationduringspecificlife-stages.1
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.However,
smalldiversionstructuressuchastheCookSloughweirandtheGraniteFallsfishwayposesome
passageproblemsforlamprey.Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactaspassagebarriers.
Ammocoetes(lampreylarvae)inhabitshallowbackwaterandeddyareasalongedgesofstreamsin
mud,siltandsand.Adultsspawninrunsandrifflesinrock-,sand-,orgravel-bottomedclearstreams,
insmall,shallowdepressions,orcrudenests,attheheadsofriffles.Waterdepthatspawningsites
oftenis30-150cm.2
WhilethePacificlampreyisnotedasbeinglesstemperaturedependentthansalmonids,3water
temperatureisstilldocumentedasplayingaroleinthespecies’physiologicalsensitivity.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandaciditycouldadverselyaffectthisspecies.Coastalfloodingand
sedimentationmayimpacthabitatforlarvaeandjuveniles.Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspring
streamflowcouldscourstreamswheretheybreedandleadtolessreproductivesuccess.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangemapsareneededforthePacificlamprey.ItisunknownifthePacificlampreyisexhibiting
phenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1fpk633
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/lampetra-tridentata
2
79
Pigeon Guillemot
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:PigeonGuillemot
ScientificName:Cepphuscolumba
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
ThepigeonguillemotreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforthe2050s,andpresumedstable/increaselikelyfor
Photo:LenBlumin
the2080s.Thisstablevulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthe
species’flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditions
changeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thepigeonguillemothasexperiencedslightlylowerthanaverage(47.1-57°F/26.3-
31.8°C)temperaturevariationinthepast50years.2
•
Dispersal/Movements–DecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
DispersalisgreaterforpigeonguillemotsfromCaliforniaandOregoncolonies,comparedwith
WashingtonandBritishColumbia.MostCalifornianimmaturesmovenorthinfirstwinter(median
distance50km,maximum850km),atleast30%toWashingtonandBritishColumbia.Elsewhere,
mediandispersalinthefirstyearonly33km,range0–180km.Adultsdisperseslightlyshorter
distances,(median30km,range0–180km).3
Itsdietismainlycomprisedofsmallfishes(e.g.,blennies,sculpins,sandlance,smelt,etc.);generally
inshorebenthicspecies;alsoincludesmollusks,crustaceans,andmarineworms.Thepigeon
guillemotforagesunderwater.4Thisspeciesdietissensitivetodeclinesinforagefishpopulations.5
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandanincreaseintheacidityofmarinewaterswilllikelyaffectthe
foodresourcesofthisspecies.Additionally,coastalfloodingandanincreaseinsedimentationcouldhave
adverseeffectsonitsabilitytoforage.Nestsitesmightbedisturbedordestroyedwithstormsurgesor
coastalstormevents.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthepigeonguillemotisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpacted
byclimatechange.Itisalsounknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochanging
seasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/049/articles/introduction
4
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1LYOrTc
5
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
80
Pileated Woodpecker
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:PileatedWoodpecker
ScientificName:Dryocopuspileatus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThepileatedwoodpeckerreceivedaCCVIrankingof
presumedstableforthe2050sand2080s.Thisstable
rankingisaresultofthespecies’broadthermalniche,
Photo:RobinHorn whichenablesthespeciestotolerategreatervariationin
temperature,andthespecies’movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsas
conditionschangeovertime. KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thepileatedwoodpeckerhasexperiencedminimal(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
Itisnotlinkedtoparticulardisturbanceregimes,althoughchangesinfirefrequencycouldnegatively
affecthabitatqualityforthepileatedwoodpecker.3Thepileatedwoodpeckermaybenefitfrom
insectinfestationsinforestareasbecausetheyareaprimarycavitynester.4
Theforagingdependencymakesthisspeciesmoreofaspecialist.Thepileatedwoodpecker’sdietis
mainlycomprisedofcarpenterants(Camponotusspp.)andwood-boringbeetlelarvae.3
Themaximumannualdispersalofthepileatedwoodpeckerisestimatedtobebetween25and50
km.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayincreasefoodresources,butmayalsofacilitate
thespreadofcold-limiteddiseases.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalsonegativelyimpactnesting
trees.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthepileatedwoodpeckerisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/563
4
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
81
Purple Martin
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:PurpleMartin
ScientificName:Prognesubis
Weestimatethatthepurplemartinislikelytohaveastablevulnerability
rankingduetothespecies’flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,which
enableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• Diet–Neutral
Thedietofthepurplemartinconsistsmainlyofflyinginsects.Examples
includebeetles,dragonflies,damselflies,butterflies,moths,
grasshoppers,andcrickets.1,2
Photo:WikiCommons •
Dispersal/Movements–DecreaseVulnerability
•
Dependenceonotherstogeneratehabitat–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thepurplemartinisalong-distancemigrant.Themaximum
annualdispersaldistanceofthespeciesisgreaterthan100km.2,3 PurplemartinsinthewesternUnitedStatesinhabitmontaneforestorPacificlowlands,andare
restrictedtoareaswithdeadsnagscontainingwoodpeckerholes.2
Droughtmaynegativelyaffecttheabundanceofpreyspeciesthatareconsumedbythepurple
martin.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducefoodresourcesandleadto
populationdeclines.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalsoreduceforagingandnestinghabitats.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangedataisneededforthepurplemartin.Itisunknownifthepurplemartinisexhibiting
phenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1HfN78e
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/287/articles/introduction
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/587
2
82
Red-Breasted Sapsucker Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Red-BreastedSapsucker
ScientificName:Sphyrapicusruber
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
Thered-breastedsapsuckerreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stable/increaselikelyforthe2050sandthe2080s.Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsas
conditionschangeovertime.
Photo:JerryMcFarland
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thered-breastedsapsuckerhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–Neutral
•
Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thered-breastedsapsuckerisnotlikelytobephysiologicallysensitivetochangesintemperature,
althoughthereislittleinformationonthisassumption.3
Thedietofthered-breastedsapsuckerismainlycomprisedofsap,fruits,andarthropods.Itforages
inold-growthforests,asopposedtomatureoryoungforests,whenavailable.Sapsuckersare
specializedforsippingsap;theirtonguesareshorterandlessextensiblethanthoseofother
woodpeckers,andtippedwithstiffhairstoallowsaptoadhere.3Forestfirescouldnegativelyaffect
foodavailability.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayincreaseinsects,theprimaryfoodresource,but
warmingmayalsoaffectthetimingofinsectreproduction.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-free
periodmayfacilitatethespreadofcold-limiteddiseases.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalso
negativelyimpactnestingtrees.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthered-breastedsapsuckerisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobe
impactedbyclimatechange.Itisalsounknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphenologicalresponsesto
changingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/663a/articles/introduction
4
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
83
Red Huckleberry
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:RedHuckleberry
ScientificName:Vacciniumparvifolium
Theredhuckleberryissensitivetofire,whichcandelay
berryproduction.Huckleberries(Vacciniumspp.)are
sensitivetosoilpH,andwillonlythriveinacidic
conditions.Thisacidicsoilrequirementcouldmake
migrationtonewlocationsmorechallenging.
KeySensitivities
• Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Berryproductioninmostwesternhuckleberriesis
generallydelayedforatleast5yearsafterafire.On
Photo:LukeMcGuff
somesites,productionmaybereducedfor20years
orlonger.However,itisnotedthattheimportanceoffireinmanylong-livedcoastalforests,ofwhich
redhuckleberryisacomponent,ispoorlyunderstood.1
•
Dependenceonothersforpropaguledispersal–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
UncommonGeologicFeature-SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Redhuckleberryseedsaredispersedbyawidevarietyofbirdsandmammals.Birddispersersinclude:
thrushes,catbird,band-tailedpigeon,bluebirds,ptarmigans,towhees,ring-neckedpheasant,and
grouse.Mammaldispersersinclude:blackbear,deermice,white-footedmouse,raccoon,pika,
groundsquirrels,chipmunks,redfox,squirrels,grayfox,andskunks.1
Huckleberries(Vacciniumspp.)requireacidicconditionsandcanthrivewherepHrangesfrom4.3to
5.2.Theseshrubsrequirerelativelysmallamountsofmanyessentialelementsandarecapableof
growingonmanyrelativelyinfertilesoils.Redhuckleberrycommonlyoccursonnitrogen-poorsoils.It
growsonwell-drainedsandyandgravellysoils,andonsiltyloam,butgenerallyreachesgreatest
abundanceonsandysoils.1
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseintheareaburnedmaynegativelyimpactplantreproductionandberryproduction.Alonger
summerdroughtperiodwouldreducesoilmoistureandalsolimitgrowthandreproductioninthefuture.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.
1
ForestServiceDatabasehttp://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/shrub/vacpar/all.html
84
Rhinoceros Auklet
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:RhinocerosAuklet
ScientificName:Cerorhincamonocerata
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
TherhinocerosaukletreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforthe2050sandthe2080s.Thisstablevulnerability
Photo:CathieBarron rankingisaresultofthespecies’broadthermalniche,which
ns
enablesthespeciestotolerategreatervariationintemperature,andthespecies’movementcapabilities,
whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• SeaLevelRise–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Bythe2050s,sealevelrisewillfloodnestburrowsandtakeovernestingsitesusedbytherhinoceros
auklet.2
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,therhinocerosauklethasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.3
Therhinocerosaukletissensitivetolandslides,whichmayaffectburrowingcolonies.Thiseffecthas
beenseeninotherburrowingseabirds.4 Foragingdependencymakesthisspeciesmoreofaspecialist,andthereforemorevulnerableto
climatechange(SensitivityDatabase).Duringthebreedingseasontherhinocerosauklet’sdiet
includessandlance(Ammodyteshexapterus)andothersmallschoolingfishes.5
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturescouldaffectfoodresources,specificallytheavailabilityofsmallfish.
Coastalfloodingandincreasedlandslidesmayadverselyimpactnestingcolonies.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknowniftherhinocerosaukletisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
StillaguamishTribalStaff–PersonalCommunication
3
Youngetal.(2011)
4
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/cerorhinca-monocerata
5
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/212/articles/introduction
85
Sooty Grouse
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:SootyGrouse
ScientificName:Dendragapusfuliginosus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/Increase
Likely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/Increase
Likely
ThesootygrousereceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
Photo:RobinHorn stable/increaselikelyforthe2050sand2080s.This
stablerankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime. KeySensitivities • HistoricalThermalNiche-SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thesootygrousehasexperiencedslightlylowerthanaverage(47.1-57°F/26.3-31.8°C)
temperaturevariationinthepast50years.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet-Neutral
Roads,andindustrialandurbandevelopmentactasbarriersforthesootygrouse.3
Windthrowmaycreategapsfavoringunderstorytodevelopthusfavoringoccupancybysootygrouse.
Old-growthforestandearlyforestseresfollowingloggingand/orfirearebothoccupied.4Therefore,
increasedfirefrequencycouldpositivelyaffectsootygrousehabitatquality.
Vegetablemattercomprisesthemajorityofthesootygrousedietthroughoutyear.Smalljuveniles
relyheavyoninvertebrates.Insomeareas,grasshoppers(Orthoptera)maybetakenheavilyby
juvenilesandoldergrouseinmidsummertoearlyautumn.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Alongersummerdroughtperiodcouldleadtochangesinfoodavailability,namelyinsects.Anearlier
springsnowmeltmayalsoleadtomismatchesinpreyavailabilityandjuveniledevelopment.Anincrease
intheareaburnedmayhaveapositiveimpactonhabitatquality.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthesootygrouseisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperature
orprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/dendragapus-fuliginosus
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/015/articles/introduction
86
Spotted Owl
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:SpottedOwl
ScientificName:Strixoccidentalis
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:HighlyVulnerable
ThespottedowlreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstableforthe
2050s,andhighlyvulnerableforthe2080s.Thehighvulnerability
rankingattheendofthecenturyisaresultofthespecies’sensitivity
tofire,whichhasthepotentialtodestroysuitablehabitatinoldgrowthforests.Thespeciesisalsosensitivetohightemperatures,
whichareprojectedtoincrease.
KeySensitivities
• Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Photo:USFWS
ThinningofDouglas-firforestsinthePacificNorthwesthas
reducedflyingsquirrelpopulationsintheregion.Flyingsquirrelsareasignificantcomponent
ofthedietofthespottedowl.3
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–IncreaseVulnerability
•
DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thespottedowlisphysiologicallysensitivetohightemperatures.Itthermoregulatesthroughchoice
ofroostlocations.2
Firehasthepotentialtodestroyspottedowlsuitablehabitatinold-growthforests.2Insect
infestationsmayimpactnestinganddispersalhabitat.3
Thespottedowlisahabitatspecialistdependentonold-growthforests.Ittendstonestinstanding
snags,hollowtrees,orusesnestingplatformsprovidedbyafewspeciesoflargetreesinold-growth
forests.2,4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fmaynegatively
impactthisphysiologicallysensitivespecies.Warmingtemperaturesmayalsofacilitatethespreadand
dominanceofthebarredowl.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalsonegativelyimpactnestingsites.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthespottedowlisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/node/538
3
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
4
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1eKwOsl
87
Steelhead
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Steelhead
ScientificName:Oncorhynchusmykiss
CCVI1Ranking2050s:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080s:ExtremelyVulnerable
SteelheadreceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderatelyvulnerableforthe Photo:GregShields 2050sandextremelyvulnerableforthe2080s.Thishigh
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’dependenceoncoldwaterandsufficientstreamflowlevels
formigration.
KeySensitivitiesandExposures
• ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Themodificationsresultingfromseawalldevelopmentprimarilyoccuralongthenearshoreareathat
juvenilesalmonidsrelyonintheircriticalearlymarinelifestage.Seawalldevelopmentcouldimpede
steelheadmovementandmigrationduringspecificlife-stages.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–IncreaseVulnerability
TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.However,
smalldiversionstructuressuchastheCookSloughweirandtheGraniteFallsfishwayposesomefish
passageproblems.Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactasfishpassagebarriers.3
Steelheadarefoundincoolclearlakesandcoolswiftstreams.
Thepoolsofsmallquietstreamsandbeaverpondsareimportantfortheyoungfry,butasthefish
growinsizetheyareabletousethehigherenergystreamenvironments.4Steelheadareoftenfound
incoolclearlakesandcoolswiftstreamswithsilt-freesubstrate.Instreams,deeplowvelocitypools
areimportantwinteringhabitats.5
Steelheadspawninglocationsareatriskforimpactsfromlatefallandwinterflooding.Additionally,
lowflowsinthesummerimpacttheamountofwateravailableforadultmigrationandspawning.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmingstreamtemperaturesanddecliningsnowpackwillaffecttheabilityofthisspeciestosurvivein
somestreams.Anearliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowcouldscourstreamsandleadto
lessreproductivesuccess.Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandsedimentationcouldreducefood
resources.Lowsummerstreamflowswouldalsonegativelyimpactthisspecies.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifsteelheadaredependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedbyclimate
change.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
3
SalmonHabitatLimitingFactorsFinalReport
4
SIRC(2005)
5
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1ToDWK3
88
Swainson’s Thrush
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Swainson’sThrush
ScientificName:Catharusustulatus
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
Swainson’sthrushreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable/
increaselikelyforthe2050sandthe2080s.Thisstablevulnerability
rankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietandmovement
capabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditions
changeovertime.
Photo:MinetteLayne
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,Swainson’sthrushhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
inthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
•
Diet–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movements–DecreaseVulnerability
ThedietoftheSwainson’sthrushincludesbeetles,caterpillars,ants,flies,andfruits.Generally
consideredanear-groundforager,althoughlesssothanotherthrushes.Foragesonornearforest
floor,whereitgleansfromgroundandlitter,andleaf-gleansonconiferandbroadleavedfoliagein
lowunderstory.34
Swainson’sthrushisacompletelong-distancemigrant.MigrateswidelythroughoutNorthand
MiddleAmerica,butmigrationroutesdifferbetweenwesternandeasternpopulations.34
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducefoodresources.Anincreaseinthe
lengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayaffectfoodresourcessuchasinsects.Anincreaseintheareaburned
mayalsoreduceforaginghabitat.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknownifSwainson’sthrushisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedby
climatechange.Itisalsounknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphonologicalresponsestochanging
seasonaltemperatureorprecipitationprojections.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1UGGzZk
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/540/articles/introduction
89
Trumpeter Swan
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:TrumpeterSwan
ScientificName:Cygnusbuccinators
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:PresumedStable
ThetrumpeterswanreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
stableforthe2050sandthe2080s.Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexible
dietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableittoflyto Photo:BrentMoore
newlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
GeneticBottleneck–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thetrumpeterswanhasexperiencedslightlylowerthanaverage(47.1-57°F/26.3-31.8°
C)temperaturevariationinthepast50years.2
Itislikelytobesensitivetoflooding,wind,andpollution.3
Thetrumpeterswanunderwentapopulationbottleneckintheearlypartofthe20thCentury.By
1932,thelargestknowncollectionofadulttrumpeterswansconsistedof57individualsonachainof
thermallakesinthevicinityofYellowstoneNationalPark.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Warmerwintertemperaturesandincreasedprecipitationcouldcontributetohigherstreamflowsandan
increasedfloodriskwhichcouldimpactfreshwaterbreedinghabitats.Decliningsummerprecipitation
andalongerdryseasoncouldreducehabitatandfoodresources.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthetrumpeterswanisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/cygnus-buccinator
4
Oyler-McCanceetal.(2007)
90
Western Grebe
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:WesternGrebe
ScientificName:Aechmophorusoccidentalis
CCVI1Index2050s:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIIndex2080s:HighlyVulnerable
ThewesterngrebereceivedaCCVIrankingofmoderately
Photo:AndrewReding
vulnerableforthe2050s,andhighlyvulnerableforthe2080s.
Theserankingsarearesultofthespecies’dependenceonanarrowlydefinedhydrologicniche,and
sensitivitytoflooding.
KeySensitivities
PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Thewesterngreberequiresstablewaterlevels,withlittletonowaveaction.Rapidchangesinwater
levels(eitherrisingorfalling)cannegativelyaffectthereproductivesuccessofthespecies.2
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thewesterngrebehasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariation
inthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.3
• Disturbance–IncreaseVulnerability
Thisspeciesishighlysensitivetoflooding,wind,anddroughtdisturbanceregimes.Cyclesofflooding,
wind,and/ordroughtcanallresultinreproductivefailure.However,yearlywaterlevelfluctuations
areneededtomaintaintheappropriatewetlandvegetationstructurethisspeciesrequiresfor
nesting.2
• DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thisspeciesrequiresfloating/submergentvegetationforbuildingafloatingnestmat.Thenestis
typicallybuiltupfromthebottomorasubmergedsnag,orfloatinginupto3mofwaterand
anchoredtoemergentorfloatingplants.24
• Diet–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thisspeciesisstrictlypiscivorousandrequiresaccesstofishpreythataredirectlyconnectedtothe
waterbodyofbreedingsites,asitrarelyfliesoutsideofmigration.2However,itconsumesawide
varietyoffish.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
•
Warmerwintertemperaturesandincreasedprecipitationcouldcontributetohigherstreamflowsandan
increasedfloodrisk,whichcouldimpactbreedinghabitats.Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdry
seasoncouldreducehabitatandfoodresources.Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandanincreaseinthe
acidityofmarinewaterswilllikelyaffectthefoodresourcesofthisspecies.Additionally,coastalfloodingand
anincreaseinsedimentationcouldhaveadverseeffectsonitsabilitytoforage.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthewesterngrebeisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/aechmophorus-occidentalis
3
Youngetal.(2011)
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/026a/articles/introduction
91
Western Pond Turtle
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:WesternPondTurtle
ScientificName:Actinemysmarmorata
CCVI1Ranking2050sA1B:ModeratelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2050sA2:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080sA1B:ExtremelyVulnerable
CCVIRanking2080sA2:ExtremelyVulnerable
ThewesternpondturtlereceivedaCCVIrankingof
Photo:J.Maughn
moderatelyvulnerableandpresumedstableforthe2050s,and
extremelyvulnerableforthe2080s.Thehighvulnerability
rankingsarearesultofthespecies’poordispersalabilityaroundhighwaysandotheranthropogenic
barriers.Additionally,climatechangemaynegativelyaffectthisspecies’hydrologicalniche.
KeyExposuresandSensitivities
• NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Areaslackingaquaticorwetlandhabitat,orregionswithunsurpassableterrain(e.g.cliffs)actas
barrierstodispersalforthewesternpondturtle.2
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–GreatlyIncrease/IncreaseVulnerability
•
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Busyhighwaysorhighwayswithobstructionsserveassignificantdispersalbarriersforthewestern
pondturtle.2
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforoccupiedcells,thewesternpondturtlehas
experiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariationinthepast50yearswithinthe
Stillaguamishwatershed.3
Thewesternpondturtleresidesinpermanentandintermittentwatersofrivers,creeks,smalllakes
andponds,marshes,unlinedirrigationcanals,andreservoirs.Thesebodiesofwaterarevulnerableto
temperatureandprecipitationregimesthataresensitivetoclimatechange.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducehabitatandfoodresources.An
increaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fmayexceedthe
thermalthresholdforthisspeciesinsomeareas.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifwesternpondturtlesaredependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpacted
byclimatechange.Itisalsounknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochanging
seasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).
2
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1dPbEZf
3
Youngetal.(2011)
92
Western Redcedar
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:WesternRedcedar
ScientificName:Thujaplicata
Thewesternredcedarisabletogrowinawidevarietyofsoiltypes,
makingthespeciessomewhatresilienttoenvironmental
perturbationsstemmingfromclimatechange.Thespecieshasalow
tomoderateresistancetofire,andissusceptibletofiredamage.
KeySensitivities
• Dispersal/Movement–Neutral
Westernredcedarseedsaresmall,andaredispersedprimarilyby
wind.However,theseedshavesmallwingsandarenotcarried
morethan400feet(122m)fromtheparenttree.1
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
UncommonGeologicFeature–DecreaseVulnerability
Photo:FlickerCreativeCommons
Thespecieshasalowtomoderateresistancetofire.Western
redcedar’sthinbark,shallowrootsystem,lowdensebranchinghabit,andhighlyflammablefoliage
makeitsusceptibletofiredamage.However,itoftensurvivesfirebecauseofitslargesize.1
Westernredcedarcantolerateawiderangeofsoil.Itgrowswellonshallowsoilsoverchalkandcan
toleratebothacidandalkalinesoilsconditions.Itisabletosurviveandgrowonsoilsthatarelowin
nutrientsandisfoundonsuchsoilsovermuchofitsnaturalrange.1
AdditionalClimaticFactorsThatMayInfluenceVulnerability
Anincreaseintheareaburnedmaynegativelyimpacttreereproductionandgrowth.Alongersummer
droughtperiodwouldreducesoilmoistureandalsolimitgrowthandreproductioninthefuture.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISdistributionmapsareneededforthisspecies.
1
ForestServiceDatabasehttp://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tree/thupli/all.html
93
Western Sandpiper
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:WesternSandpiper
ScientificName:Calidrismauri
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
ThewesternsandpiperreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumed
Photo:HeatherPaul
stable/increaselikelyforthe2050sand2080s.Thisstable
vulnerabilityrankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietandmovementcapabilities,whichenableitto
flytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime.
KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,thewesternsandpiperhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche-Neutral
•
PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche–Neutral
•
Dispersal/Movement–DecreaseVulnerability
Speciesdistributionisnotsignificantlyaffectedbythermalcharacteristicsoftheenvironmentinthe
assessmentarea,orspeciesoccupieshabitatsthatarethoughttobenotvulnerabletoprojected
climatechange.2
Thewesternsandpiperhaslittleornodependenceonastronglyseasonalhydrologicregimeand/ora
specificaquatic/wetlandhabitatorlocalizedmoistureregimethatishighlyvulnerabletolossor
reductionwithclimatechange.2Atcoastalstopoverareas,westernsandpipersfrequentintertidal
mudandsandflats,roostingduringhightideonexposedtussocksinthesaltmarsh,orifhightide
occursinbroaddaylight,flyingoverwaterinover-oceanflockingbehavior.3
Maximumannualdispersalforthewesternsandpiperisestimatedtobebetween1and5km.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Coastalfloodingandsea-levelrisecouldaffectroostingsites.Warmingoceantemperatures,increased
sedimentation,andincreasedaciditycouldalsoaffectfoodresources.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthewesternsandpiperisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonal
temperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/090/articles/introduction
4
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/calidris-mauri
94
Western Toad
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:WesternToad
ScientificName:Anaxyrusboreas
Thewesterntoadisvulnerabletothenegativeeffectsthat
droughtwillhaveonthespecies’aquatichabitat.Additionally,
thespecies’dependenceongopherandgroundsquirrelholes
maymakeitchallengingforthespeciestomovetonewareas
asconditionschange.
KeySensitivities • PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:J.N.Stuart
Adultsemergefromhibernationsitesandmigratetobreedingwetlands.Breedingsitesareinstillor
barelymovingwater,typicallypondsandsmalllakes,streams,rainpools,andditches.(AdultHabitat)
Historically,westerntoadswerethoughttobemoreterrestrialexceptwhenbreeding,andtolerant
ofdryhabitats.1
•
Dependenceonotherspeciesforhabitat–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
•
Dispersal/Movement–SomewhatDecreaseVulnerability
•
Diet–Neutral
•
Disturbance–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Duringcoldweather(temperaturesbelow3˚C),westerntoadswillusegopherandgroundsquirrel
holesasretreats.Athigherelevations,westerntoadshibernateinrock-linedchambersnearcreeks,
ingroundsquirrelburrows,inandunderrootsystemsofevergreentrees,andpossiblyinbeaver
dams.1
Maximumannualdispersalofthewesterntoadisestimatedtobebetween1and5km.2
Thedietofthewesterntoadincludesspiders,worms,ants,moths,beetlesandotherarthropods.
Billbugweevils(Sphenophorussp.)arealsoingestedfrequently.1
Droughtcannegativelyaffecthabitatqualityforthewesterntoad.2
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Decliningsummerprecipitationandalongerdryseasoncouldreducehabitatandfoodresources.An
increaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°Fandadecreaseinthenightsbelow10°Fmayexceedthe
thermalthresholdforthisspeciesinsomeareas.
FutureResearchNeeds
GISrangedataisneededforthewesterntoad.Itisalsounknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphenological
responsestochangingseasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
2
AmphibiaWebhttp://bit.ly/1HgaeiX
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/anaxyrus-boreass
95
White Sturgeon
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
CommonName:WhiteSturgeon
ScientificName:Acipensertransmontanus
Thewhitesturgeonspendsmostofitslifeincoastalmarine
waters,ascendingtoriverstospawn.Climatechangemitigation
efforts,suchasseawalldevelopments,havethepotentialto
negativelyaffectthedispersal/migrationabilitiesofthespecies.
KeySensitivities • ClimateChangeMitigation–IncreaseVulnerability
Photo:JoshMore
Themodificationsresultingfromseawalldevelopmentprimarilyoccuralongthenearshoreareathat
whitesturgeonrelyonintheircriticalmarinelifestage.Seawalldevelopmentcouldimpedewhite
sturgeonmovementandmigrationduringspecificlife-stages.1
•
AnthropogenicBarriers–IncreaseVulnerability
•
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–Unknown
•
Diet–Neutral
TherearenolargehydroelectricorfloodcontroldamswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.However,
smalldiversionstructuressuchastheCookSloughweirandtheGraniteFallsfishwayposesomefish
passageproblems.Culvertsandtidegatescanalsoactasfishpassagebarriers.2
Someareanadromousandmakeextensivesaltwatermigrations.Manymovemorelocallyfrom
estuariestofreshwater,orfartherinlandwithinfreshwater,tospawn.Spawnsprobablyeitherover
deepgravelrifflesorindeepholeswithswiftcurrentsandrockbottoms.3
Thewhitesturgeonfeedsmostlyonthelarvaeofaquaticinsects,crustaceans,andmolluscs.A
significantportionofthedietoflargersturgeonconsistsoffish.3
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Anincreaseinoceantemperaturesandaciditycouldadverselyaffectfoodresources,suchasfish,insects,
crustaceans,andmollusks.Coastalfloodingandsedimentationmayimpacthabitatforjuveniles.An
earliershiftinthetimingofpeakspringstreamflowcouldscourstreamsandleadtolessreproductive
success.Warmingstreamtemperaturesanddecliningsnowpackmayalsoaffecttheabilityofthespecies
tosurviveinsomerivers.
FutureResearchNeeds
NeedGISrangemapsareneededforthisspecies.Morelifehistoryinformationisneededforthewhite
sturgeon.
1
FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement,ElliottBaySeawall(2013)
SalmonHabitatLimitingFactorsFinalReport
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1CsA0UL
2
96
Wilson’s Warbler
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Wilson’sWarbler
ScientificName:Cardellinapusilla
CCVI1Ranking2050s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
CCVIRanking2080s:NotVulnerable/IncreaseLikely
Wilson’swarblerreceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstable/
increaselikelyforthe2050sand2080s.Thestable
Photo:J.N.Stuart
vulnerablerankingisaresultofthespecies’flexibledietand
movementcapabilities,whichenableittoflytonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime. KeySensitivities
• HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Giventhemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforthespecies’rangewithintheStillaguamish
watershed,theWilson’swarblerhasexperiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperature
variationinthepast50yearswithintheStillaguamishwatershed.2
•
Diet–Neutral
•
Dispersal/Movements–DecreaseVulnerability
ThedietoftheWilson’swarblerincludesinsects(wasps,ants,flies,beetles,caterpillars,etc.).Most
foodisobtainedfromleavesbygleaningwhileperchedorflying.3
TheWilson’swarblerisamedium-tolong-distancemigrant,andwintersprimarilysouthofthe
UnitedStatesborder.4
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Earlierspringsnowmeltandalongersummerdryperiodcouldadverselyaffectwetlandsthatthe
Wilson’swarbleruses.Drierhabitatswillalsolikelyaffectfoodresources,suchasinsects.Warming
temperaturesmayalsoaffecttheircurrentdistribution.
FutureResearchNeeds
ItisunknownifWilson’swarblerisdependentonadisturbanceregimethatislikelytobeimpactedby
climatechange.Itisalsounknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochanging
seasonaltemperatureorprecipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
Youngetal.(2011)
3
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1JXGwSU
4
TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnlinehttp://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/478/articles/introduction
97
Wolverine
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: CCVI Results
CommonName:Wolverine
ScientificName:Gulogulo
CCVI1Ranking2050s:PresumedStable
CCVIRanking2080s:ExtremelyVulnerable
Photo:WisconsinDNR
ThewolverinereceivedaCCVIrankingofpresumedstableforthe2050s,andextremelyvulnerableforthe
2080s.Thishighvulnerabilityrankingattheendofthecenturyisaresultofthespecies’physiological
sensitivitytohightemperatures,anddependenceonpersistentsnowcover.
KeySensitivities
•
•
•
•
•
NaturalBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
Thewolverinetypicallyresidesinalpineandsubalpineenvironments.Warmlowlandsmayactasa
dispersalbarrierforthewolverine.23
AnthropogenicBarriers–SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability
ThewolverinehasbeeninlowerelevationsoftheStillaguamishwatershed,andhumandisturbance
hasbeennotedasamajorbarrierforthespecies.4
HistoricalThermalNiche–IncreaseVulnerability
Consideringthemeanseasonaltemperaturevariationforoccupiedcells,thewolverinehas
experiencedsmall(37-47°F/20.8-26.3°C)temperaturevariationinthepast50yearswithinthe
Stillaguamishwatershed.3
PhysiologicalThermalNiche–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Thewolverineisextremelyphysiologicallysensitivetohightemperatures.Theestimatedlower
thresholdofthermoneutralityforthewolverinemaybeaslowas-40°C,and-8to5°Cinthesummer.
Thisspeciesisalmostcompletelyrestrictedtorelativelycoolorcoldenvironmentsthatmaybelost
orreducedintheStillaguamishwatershedasaresultofclimatechange.35
DependenceonIce/Snow–GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability
Snowisanimportantcomponentofthewolverine’sseasonalhabitatrequirements.Persistentspring
snowcoverisanobligatecomponentofwolverinedenningbecauseitaidsthesurvivalofyoungby
providingathermaladvantageandarefugefrompredators.Ecologicalassociationwithspringsnow
coveralsoextendstoyear-roundlocationsthroughoutthespecies’range.56
AdditionalFactorsNotReflectedintheCCVI
Adecreaseinthesnowpack,anincreaseinthenumberofdaysabove90°F,andadecreaseinthenightsbelow
10°Fwillnegativelyimpactthewolverine.Anincreaseinthelengthofthefreeze-freeperiodmayalso
facilitatethespreadofcold-limiteddiseases.Anincreaseintheareaburnedmayalsonegativelyimpact
availablehabitatduringthesummer.
FutureResearchNeeds
Itisunknownifthespeciesisexhibitingphenologicalresponsestochangingseasonaltemperatureor
precipitationdynamics.
1
Resultsincorporateprojectedtemperaturechange(comparedtobaselineaverage1961-1990)forthe2050sand
2080sfortwoseparateemissionscenariosfromtheIPCC4thAssessment(highemissionsscenarioA2andmedium
emissionsscenarioA1B).Forthe2050sand2080s,thetemperaturebinningclassificationusedbyNatureServeputs
thetemperatureprojectionsforthetwoemissionscenariosintothesametemperaturebin,thusleadingtoidentical
CCVIrankings.SinceNatureServedoesnotdistinguishbetweenthetwoscenarios,wedonotpresentseparate
resultsforeachscenario,insteadincludingjustonescenarioeachforthe2050sand2080s.
2
NatureServeExplorerhttp://bit.ly/1J74U1A
3
Youngetal.(2011)
4
StillaguamishTribe’sNaturalResourcesStaff–PersonalCommunication
5
ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasehttp://climatechangesensitivity.org/species/gulo-gulo
6
Copelandetal.(2010)
98
Estuary Habitat
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Estuary-Saltmarsh,eelgrass,mudflat
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:Moderate
toHigh
Summary:Thishabitatisestimatedtohaverelatively
moderatetohighvulnerabilityduetoitsmoderate
sensitivity2andhighprojectedexposureto
temperatureandprecipitationchangesinthe
Stillaguamishwatershed1.
©softscience
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)
Increasesinairtemperaturecouldcausemoredrying,especiallyinlowtidesystems(e.g.eelgrass
desiccationmayincrease).Lowmarshesareverysensitivewhilehighermarshesarelessso.Estuariesare
generallyadaptedtoahighdegreeofvariability;however,somespeciesmaybedisplacedorbecome
locallyextinctduetotemperatureextremes.Nonetheless,becausemanyofthesesystemsarecomplex
andarecomposedoflargeassemblagesofspecies,theoverallfunctionalityofestuarinehabitatislikely
toberesilienttoairtemperatureincrease.
•
Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)
Precipitationchangesforthesesystemsareuncertainandfreshwaterinflowwillbeparticularly
influential.However,sincemanyofthesesystemshavebeencutofffromtheirnaturalfreshwaterinflows
duetolanduse/riveralterations,theymayalreadybemoreresilienttofuturechanges.Furthermore,
somesystemsmightloseinvasivespecieslikereedcanarygrassduetoincreasedsalinityinsummer.
•
Indirectfactors:4(outof7)
Waterchemistrymaychangeinresponsetowarmingwatertemperaturesandcouldincrease
acidification.Sealevelrise(SLR)willgreatlyinfluencethesesystems,butmaybepartiallyoffsetor
intensifiedbychangesinriverdischargeandsedimentdeliveryinsomelocations.ItislikelythatSLRmay
createanopportunitytoaddestuaryhabitatinsomeplacesbyfloodinglow-lyingshorelineswherethere
isnocurrentdevelopment.Geomorphologyisalsoimportant-mudflatsthatareexposedmaybemore
vulnerablecomparedtoprotectedflats.Diseasesandparasitesareimportantforsomesystems–for
example,eelgrasswastingdiseaseisaffectedbytemperatureandsalinity.Increasedstresswillalso
increasediseaseratesandsusceptibility,whileincreasedtemperaturewilllikelyhaveanetincreasein
propensityfordisease.
ResearchNeeds
Estuariesaregenerallyadaptedtoahighdegreeofvariability;howeverchangesinprecipitation,
particularlytheseasonaltimingoffloodeventscouldcauseunknownchanges.Shorelinemappingof
potentialareasofcontractionandexpansionofestuariescouldhelpprioritizefuturedevelopment.
Additionalresearchintochangesindiseases,pests,andinvasivespeciesisneeded.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
99
Forest Habitat
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Forest
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:High
Summary:Thishabitatisestimatedtohaverelatively
highvulnerabilityduetoitsmoderatetohigh
sensitivity22andhighprojectedexposuretotemperature
andprecipitationchangesintheStillaguamish
watershed1.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:5(outof7)
Theextentanddensityofforestsarelargelydeterminedby
temperatureandprecipitation.Warmingtemperatureswould
likelyaffectthespeciescompositionofwesternWashington
forestsbyextendingthegrowingseason.However,warmer
temperaturesmayalsofacilitatetheintroductionofinvasive
species,pests,anddiseasenotpreviouslyfoundinthisarea.
•
©WalterSiegmund
Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)
SomeforesthabitatsofWashingtonStatearemorelimitedbyprecipitationthantemperature.These
forestsaregenerallyfoundindrierlocationsandathighelevations.Anincreaseinprecipitationcould
potentiallyleadtoincreasegrowthandproductivityofsomedryforests.Bycontrast,increased
precipitationduringthewinterathighelevationmayleadtodecreasedgrowthbecauseofadeeper
snowpack.However,warmingtemperaturesmayoffsetthesnowpackdepthandlongtermsnowpackis
projectedtodecline.Decreasedprecipitationduringthegrowingseasonandinparticularthealreadydry
summermonthswouldleadtodecreasedgrowthacrossmostforests.
•
Indirectfactors:5(outof7)
Forestsaresensitivetoindirectfactorsofclimatechange,suchasfire,disease,pests,andwind
disturbances.Althoughitisnotknownhowwildfireriskwillchangeinthe21stCentury,increasesin
temperatureanddrynesswillundoubtedlyresultinanincreaseinrisk.Thiscouldchangespecies
composition,suchasinwetlowlandforestsofwesternWashington,fromwesternhemlockandredalder
dominatedstandstoDouglas-fir.Warmertemperaturescouldleadtoincreasesofpests,especiallywhen
combinedwithblowdownevents.
ResearchNeeds
ForestedhabitatsinwesternWashingtonarediverseinspeciescomposition,structure,andpotential
responsetoclimatechange.Inadditiontobetterunderstandinghowchangesintemperatureand
precipitationmightaffectforests,moreinformationonhowdisturbancesmayaffectforestsisalso
needed.Certainforestrytechniqueslikethinningmayhelpmakesomeforestsmoreresilienttoclimate
change.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
100
Freshwater Habitat Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:FreshwaterAquatic
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:High
Summary:Giventhissystem’smoderatetohighclimate
sensitivity2andhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureand
precipitationchangesintheStillaguamishwatershed1,we
estimatethatitsclimatechangevulnerabilitywillberelatively
high.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:5(outof7)
Changesintemperaturewillimpactallfreshwaterhabitats.For
example,somesectionsoftheStillaguamishRiveralreadyexceed
thelethaltemperaturethresholdforsalmonduringthesummer
©inaj
months.Riparianareasandstreamsprovidewaterstorageforbiotic
eep
refugeduringdryseasonsandaresensitivetoevenslightincreases
inwatertemperature.Warmingtemperaturescanalsoraisebioticrespirationratesandcontributeto
lowerdissolvedoxygencontent,exacerbatingstressonspecies.
•
Precipitationchanges:5(outof7)
Increasedprecipitation,particularlyduringthealreadywetseason,couldleadtoincreasedflooding,
whichcouldbedetrimentaliffloodsoccurduringspawningtimes.Increasedprecipitation(in
combinationwithwarmingtemperatures)couldalsoleadtomorerainonsnowevents.Bycontrast,
decreasingrainfall(andwarmingtemperatures)insummercouldexacerbatewatershortages–
particularlyinfreshwatersystemsthatarealreadywaterlimited.
•
Indirectfactors:6(outof7)
Freshwateraquatichabitatsaresensitivetoindirectfactorssuchasfire,flooding,insects,anddisease.
Thereisanincreaseintheriskofwildfireandbeetleinfestationwithwarmertemperaturesandlonger
dryseasons,whichwouldaffectthevegetationalongfreshwaterbodies.Largefireandbeetleinfestation
couldalsodrasticallychangethewaterbalanceforsomefreshwaterhabitats.Theriskoffishdiseases
increaseswithwarmerwatertemperature.Dams,reservoirs,andarmoringofrivershavedrastically
changedthehydrographandpredisposethesesystemstobemoresensitivetoclimatechange.
ResearchNeeds
Freshwateraquatichabitatsarediverseandtheirresponsetoclimatechangewillvaryconsiderably.The
locationandtypeofthesehabitatsisgenerallylacking.Researchonhowstreamtemperaturesandflow
mightchangeunderclimatescenariosisalsoneeded.Informationontheeffectofinvasivespeciesand
disease/pestoutbreaksisgenerallylacking.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
101
Nearshore Habitat
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Marine–Nearshore/gravelbeaches
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:Moderate
Summary:Thishabitatisestimatedtohaverelatively
moderatevulnerabilityduetoitslowtomoderatesensitivity2
andhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitation
changesintheStillaguamishwatershed1.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)
©hship
Gravelbeachesareidentifiedasbeingsomewhatsensitiveto
temperaturechange.Warmingtemperaturesmayleadtoshiftsinbiotacompositionanddensity.
Furthermore,temperaturechangecouldincreaselikelihoodofinvasivespeciesmovingin.Thisispossible
forinvasivespeciesthatarecurrentlylimitedbycoolertemperatures(i.e.,theyarefrostsensitive).
Warmingtemperaturesmayalsoleadtoalossofforagefishspeciesinnearshorehabitatsandmay
acceleratetherateoforganicmatterdecay.
•
Precipitationchanges:3(outof7)
Althoughnearshoreandgravelbeachhabitatswereidentifiedasbeinglesssensitivetoprecipitation
changesthantemperaturechanges,thereisstillconsiderableuncertaintyinhowthesesystemsmay
respondtoincreasedordecreasedprecipitation.Onewaythatprecipitationchangesmayimpactthese
habitatsisthroughsedimentproduction,especiallyduringintenseprecipitationevents,whichcouldlead
tofloodingandscouring.
•
Indirectfactors:5(outof7)
Warmingtemperatureswilllikelyaffectwaterchemistryandmakeitmoreacidic.Thisaciditywouldhave
majoreffectsonshellfishinnearshorehabitats.Floodingmayadverselyaffectbiotaandchangesediment
production.Sealevelrise(SLR)hasthepotentialtogreatlyinfluencethesesystems,butsimilarto
estuaries,maybepartiallyoffsetorintensifiedbychangesinriverdischargeandsedimentdeliveryin
somelocations.ItislikelythatSLRmaycreateanopportunitytoaddnearshorehabitatinsomeplacesby
floodinglow-lyingshorelineswherethereisnocurrentdevelopment.Othernon-climaterelatedthreats
alsopredisposethishabitatgrouptobemoresensitivetoclimatechange.Forexample,pollution,
shellfishharvest,andland-usechange–includingdevelopment,armoring,andshorelinemodificationare
allmajorthreatstonearshoreandrockybeaches.
ResearchNeeds
Climatechangeimpactstonearshorehabitatsandgravelbeachesarelargelyunknown.Floodingand
sedimentchangesareo1bviouseventsthatcoulddrasticallychangethecharacterandspecies
compositionofthesehabitats.Shorelinemappingofpotentialareasofcontractionandexpansionof
marinenearshoreandgravelbeachescouldhelpprioritizefuturedevelopment.Thesynergisticeffectof
land-usechangeandpollutioncouldcompoundclimatechangeandrequiresfurtherresearch.
1
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity2andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
102
Marine Habitat
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Marine-Openwater(photiczone)
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:Moderate
Summary:Giventhissystem’slowtomoderateclimate
sensitivity2andhighprojectedexposuretotemperature
andprecipitationchangesintheStillaguamish
watershed1,weestimatethatitsclimatechange
vulnerabilitywillberelativelymoderate.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:3(outof7)
Warmingairtemperatureswillsignificantlyimpactthe
photiczonebychangingthetemperatureofthewater
©WiseGeek
andmodifyingoceancurrents.
• Precipitationchanges:4(outof7)
Changesinprecipitationwillaffectthesalinityandconsequentlythedensityofthephoticzone
water,butfreshwaterinputsmayoffsetsomeofthesechanges,dependingonhowclosethey
are.
• Indirectfactors:4(outof7)
Warmingtemperaturesandchangesincarbondioxidewilllikelyaffectwaterchemistryleading
tomoreacidity.Thisaciditywouldhavemajoreffectsonshellfishinnearshorehabitats.Changes
insolarradiation,windspeedanddirectionwillimpacttheupwelling,downwellingandmixing
ofthewater.Freshwaterflowandfloodingmayadverselyaffectbiotaandchangesediment
production.Othernon-climaterelatedthreatsalsopredisposethishabitatgrouptobemore
sensitivetoclimatechange.Forexample,pollution,shellfishharvest,andland-usechange–
includingdevelopment,armoring,andshorelinemodificationareallmajorthreatstonearshore
androckybeaches.
ResearchNeeds
Themarinephoticzonewillpersistinthefuturebutwaterchemistrywillchangeandnew
specieswilllikelymovein.Moreresearchintohowthesechangeswillaffectspeciesandsystem
functioningisneeded.Identificationastowhichspeciesmightinvadeandhowtheymight
changethesystemisneeded.Newspecieswillalsolikelybringnewdiseases,whichcould
possiblyaffectotherspecies.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
103
Montane Habitats
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Montane:alpine,subalpine,meadow,talus
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:High
Summary:Giventhissystem’shighclimatesensitivity2and
highprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitation
changesintheStillaguamishwatershed1,weestimatethat
itsclimatechangevulnerabilitywillberelativelyhigh.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:7(outof7)
Warmertemperaturesmaypromoteincreasedgrowthand
productivityofhigh-elevationhabitatsthatarecurrentlylimited
bycoldtemperatures.However,warmertemperatureswillalso
facilitatetheencroachmentoftreesintomeadowsandother
suitablealpineareasandmayalsoadverselyimpactspeciesthat
areintolerantofhottemperatures,suchastheAmericanpika
andcausethemtolocallydisappear.
•
©WalterSiegmund
Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)
Changesinprecipitationwillgreatlyaffectmontanehabitatsandtheirvegetation.Morewinter
precipitationatthehighestelevationscouldleadtodecreasedtreegrowthiftemperaturesarestillcold.
Increasedsummerprecipitationcouldleadtoincreasesinbiomassproductionandagreaterdiversityof
species,butatthecostofendemicspecies.Decreasesinprecipitationduringthesummermonthscould
leadtodecreasedgrowthandahigherlikelihoodoffire.Lesssnowcouldleadtoalongergrowingseason
andincreasedgrowth,butmayalsoexposesomespeciestofrostandwinddisturbancesduringharsh
winterweather.
•
Indirectfactors:6(outof7)
Montaneareasaregenerallyverysensitivetodisturbancessuchasfire,wind,diseases,andpests.Itis
likelythatclimatechangewillincreasethefrequencyandpossiblytheintensityofsomeoftheseindirect
factors.Alpineareasandmeadowsmaybethemostsensitive,butsubalpineareasarealsoverysensitive.
Someofthebiggestchangeswilloccurafteradisturbanceoccursifexistingspeciescannotestablishand
newspeciesappear.Invasivespecies,diseases,andpestsarealsoamajorconcerninmontaneareasand
couldchangethespeciescompositionandcharacterofmanyofthesehabitats.
ResearchNeeds
Themontanehabitatisdiverseandconsistsofmanyecosystems,includingalpine,subalpine,meadow,
talus,etc.Itisdifficulttoidentifyonerankingforalloftheseecosystems.Furtherresearchinto
identifyingindividualclimatechangesensitivityrankingsforeachecosystemisneeded.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2
SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
104
Old Growth Forest
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Oldgrowthforest
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:Moderate
Summary:Giventhissystem’slowsensitivity2andhigh
projectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitation
changesintheStillaguamishwatershed1,weestimatethat
thissystem’sclimatechangevulnerabilitywillberelatively
moderate.However,indirectimpactsfrommodifiedfire
regimescouldhavesubstantialnegativeeffects.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:3(outof7)
Warmingtemperaturesmaycausesomelocaltree
populationstobestressed,especiallyduringthedry
©Nickpd
summermonths,however,manyspeciesarelikelyto
persist.Forexample,onsitesthatwarmconsiderably,westernhemlockandwesternredcedar
maydeclineingrowthanddominanceduetocompetitionfromotherspecies.Bycontrast,
specieswithabroadtemperaturetolerance,suchasDouglas-firmaydobetterwithwarmer
temperatures,assumingadequatesoilmoisture.
• Precipitationchanges:3(outof7)
Generallyold-growthforestsinwesternWashingtonarelocatedinwetmaritimeareas.An
increaseinprecipitationcouldpotentiallyleadtoincreasedgrowthandproductivityofsome
species.However,manyarecurrentlyenergy-limited(light-limited)inthegrowingseasonand
maynotrespondtochangesinprecipitation.Nevertheless,dryingduringthealreadydry
summercouldstresssomespeciesandleadtocompetitivechanges.
• Indirectfactors:4(outof7)
Climate-changeinducedincreasedfrequencyoflarge,intensewildfirescouldhavesubstantial
impactstotheage,speciescomposition,andstructureofold-growthforests.Speciesthatare
abletoregenerateaftertheseeventswillbefavored.Althoughsomespecies,suchasDouglas-fir
aresomewhatresilienttofire,largeeventswilllikelyresetforestsuccession.Disease,pest
outbreaksandwindstormsmayalsohavesignificantimpactstooldgrowthforestsofwestern
Washington.
ResearchNeeds
Althoughclimatechangeisnotexpectedtodrasticallyaffectoldgrowthforests,itislargely
unknownhowchangesinsoilmoisture(duringthesummer)andcloudinessmayimpactspecies,
especiallyenergy-limitedtrees.Manyofthetreesgrowinginoldgrowthforestsarelong-lived
andmostresearchhasshorttimeframes.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2
SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
105
Open Meadow
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Openmeadow
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:High
Summary:Giventhissystem’shighclimatesensitivity2
andhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureand
precipitationchangesintheStillaguamishwatershed1,
weestimatethatitsclimatechangevulnerabilitywillbe
relativelyhigh.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:5(outof7)
Openmeadowscanbefoundinavarietyofclimates
fromwetandcooltodryandhot.Subsequently,changes
intemperaturewillmanifestinchangestospecies
©Mark Iverson
composition.Warmertemperaturesmayincrease
biomassproductioninwetandcoolmeadows,butalsoincreasethelikelihoodoftree
encroachment.Warmingtemperaturesindryandhotmeadowsmayleadtodecreasedplant
growthandpotentiallossofbiodiversity.
• Precipitationchanges:7(outof7)
Shortersnowdurationinmeadowsathighelevationscouldleadtoincreasedgrowthand
potentiallyagreaterdiversityofflora.However,soilmoistureduringthedrysummermonths
willultimatelydecidehowmuchgrowthispossible.Additionally,anincreaseinrainduringthe
dryseasoncouldalsobebeneficialforthegrowthandproductivityofdryandhotmeadows;
however,aswithalpineareas,treeencroachmentisapotential.Decreasesinprecipitationwill
likelynegativelyaffectallmeadows,butthebiggestimpactswillprobablybewithindryandhot
meadows.
• Indirectfactors:6(outof7)
Meadowsaregenerallysmallerinsizethanotherhabitattypesandthereforearemoresensitive
totheindirecteffectsofclimatechange.Increasesinfire,flooding,wind,diseases,andpestswill
bemagnifiedwithinmeadowsduetotheirlimitedextent.Furthermore,theproximityofother
nearbymeadowswillalsoaffectspeciesdispersalandseedregenerationsfollowingmajor
disturbances.Meadowsarealsothreatenedbyland-usechangeinsomeareas.
ResearchNeeds
Openmeadowsarefoundinavarietyofclimatesandsitesandalthoughitisexpectedthatsome
specieswillpersistunderfutureclimaticchange,itisnotknownwhichones.Furtherresearch
intohowthesehabitatsfunctionandwhatprocessesareimportanttomaintainingmeadowsis
needed.Furtherresearchintohowdisturbanceswillaffectmeadowsisalsoneeded.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2
SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
106
Riparian Habitat
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Riparian
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:
ModeratetoHigh
Summary:Giventhissystem’smoderateclimate
sensitivity2andhighprojectedexposureto
temperatureandprecipitationchangesinthe
Stillaguamishwatershed1,weestimatethatits
climatechangevulnerabilitywillberelatively
moderatetohigh.
©Walter
KeySensitivities2:
Siegmund
• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)
LowlandriparianhabitatsinwesternWashingtonarefoundalongriversandnearbodiesof
water.Manyarewithintherelativelycool,moistmaritimeclimate.Subsequently,riparian
habitatsaremoderatelysensitivetotemperaturechanges.Warmingtemperaturescoulddryup
somesmallcreeksandgroundwaterspringsorshortenthedurationoftheirseasonalwetness.If
thisweretooccur,thespeciescompositionandstructureofriparianhabitatscouldsignificantly
change.Iftemperatureswarmconsiderablysomeofthesesystemscoulddisappearaltogether.
• Precipitationchanges:2(outof7)
Althoughriparianhabitatswereidentifiedasbeinglesssensitivetochangesinprecipitationthan
tochangesintemperature,theystillaredependentonprecipitation.Soilmoistureinriparian
habitatsisparticularlyimportanttospeciescompositionandstructureandisatleastpartially
constrainedbyprecipitationandevapo-transpiration.Generally,riparianhabitatshavea
significantportionofhardwoodtreespeciesandthesetreescanbequitesensitivetodecreasing
wateravailability.
• Indirectfactors:6(outof7)
Riparianhabitatsareverysensitivetoindirectfactorsofclimatechangeandinparticular,
summerlowflows,higherwatertemperatures,andfloodingevents.Summerlowflowsand
higherwatertemperatureswillnegativelyimpactskeyspecies,suchassalmon.Increased
frequencyandintensityoffloodingeventscouldshiftspeciestowardshardwoods,withsmaller
treesandyoungerageclasses.Shiftsinthetimingandlevelsofstreamflowswillalsoaffect
watertablesandsoilmoisturelevels.
ResearchNeeds
Riparianhabitatsarecomplexwithmanyprocessesandmonitoringthesehabitats,particularly
afterdisturbances,willbeimportanttounderstandinghowclimatechangemayaffectthem.For
instance,detailedmappingofvulnerabilityriparianhabitatscouldbedonegivencurrent
projectionsofsummerlowflowsandhighertemperatures.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2
SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
107
Wetland: Forested Wetland
Stillaguamish Vulnerability Assessment: Qualitative Results
Habitat:Wetland:ForestedWetland
EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerability1:High
Summary:Giventhissystem’shighclimatesensitivity2and
highprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitation
changesintheStillaguamishwatershed1,weestimatethat
itsclimatechangevulnerabilitywillberelativelyhigh.
KeySensitivities2:
• Temperaturechanges:6(outof7)
Forestedwetlandsdependuponsurfacerunoffof
©mountvernonwa.gov
groundwaterforwatersupply.Shallowwetlandswill
respondmorequicklytoincreasesintemperature.
Dependingonformandsize,somewetlandsmaybeabletostoreincreasingwinterrunoff,
bufferingagainstsummerdrying.Asmallchangeintemperaturecouldleadtosignificant
changesinevaporationandthereforecouldmeanearlierdryingupofthesewetlands.
Additionally,theremaybemismatchesinthetimingofwhencomponentspeciesrequirethese
wetlandsandearlierdrying.
• Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)
Decreasingprecipitation,especiallyduringthealreadydryseasoncouldresultinmuchearlier
dryingupandashorterwetseason.Heavilyforestedwetlandswillbesomewhatbufferedfrom
waterlossfromdecreasingprecipitationandincreasingtemperaturebecauseofshading.
Forestedwetlandsmayalsohelpmitigatefloodingfromincreasingrainfallinautumnandwinter.
Forestedwetlandsmayretainsnowpacklongerthannon-forestedwetlandsduetotemperature
regulation,thusdecreasingthedegreetowhichspringpeakstreamflowsshiftearlierinthe
season.
• Indirectfactors:4(outof7)
Forestedwetlandshaveahigherriskofwildfireandbeetleinfestationduetowarming
temperaturesandalongerdryseasoninwesternWashington.Waterbalancesinforested
wetlandscoulddrasticallychangewithsuchbroadforestloss.Lossofsnowpackwillimpact
forestedvernalpoolsandwetmeadowsinwesternWashington.Forestedwetlandsthatare
seasonal,shallow,anddependentonalimitedwatersourcearethemostsensitivetoclimate
change.
ResearchNeeds
Forestedwetlandsareimportanttoanumberofspeciesandprovideecosystemservices;
however,furtherresearchintohowthesesystemsmightbeaffectedbyclimatechangeis
needed.Wetlandfunctionandprocesseshavelargelynotbeentestedunderclimatescenarios.
Differentwetlandplantspeciesmayalsoaffectfunctioningandhasnotbeenstudied.
1
2
Vulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivity andexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof3.3–3.5°C
anda-0.087to-0.094declineinHamonAET:PETmetricfortheStillaguamishwatershedbythe2050s).
2
SensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublically
availableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledge
ofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).
108