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UNCCD News
A quarterly newsletter about achieving a land-degradation neutral world
Issue 6.1
IN FOCUS
Editorial
Interview
Security beyond traditional
dimensions
Land degradation exacerbates food
insecurity, but may also contribute to
forced migration, political instability,
fragility and conflict. There is more to
security than the political, economic
and social dimensions. › page 2
From the Executive Secretary
Land degradation can turn into a
security issue. That’s why investigating
the connection between land
degradation and conflict is high on the
UNCCD’s agenda. › this page
Access to land and water –
the key to security in drylands
Hartmut Behrend, a climatologist with
the German Armed Forces, takes a
look at the impact of environmental
degradation on security with a focus
on how NATO deals with these new
challenges. › page 7
Science
Good practice
A contested link: environmental
degradation and conflict
There is no scientific evidence proving
that desertification, climate change and
conflict interact. For some researchers,
the correlation is obvious, whereas
others refer to environmental stressors,
threat multipliers or amplifiers. › page 10
Kenya: initiatives for land, lives
and peace
In northern Kenya, competition over
grazing lands and water has sometimes escalated into violence. But this
is also a place for optimism about the
potential for sustainable land management and peaceful conflict resolution.
› page 13
Desertification: the invisible
frontline › page 5
Syria’s conflict: is land degradation part of the story › page 5
FROM THE EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
Land degradation – a security issue
When land degradation reaches a level at which it seriously threatens people’s livelihoods, it can
turn into a security issue. This is because land is so closely linked to basic human needs, such as
access to food and water. If land degradation interferes with the fulfilment of these needs, it can
lead to conflicts over scarce land and water resources, spark food riots or turn smallholder farmers
into refugees.
It is striking that many of today’s violent conflicts are taking place in countries with vulnerable dry
ecosystems. Syria, Mali and Darfur are just a few examples. I believe that this issue urgently needs
to be addressed – by national and international policy-makers and researchers alike. That’s why
I have put the investigation of the connection between land degradation and conflict high on the
UNCCD’s agenda.
The question is not whether land degradation is a root cause of, or a contributory factor to, violent
conflicts. The point is that we must take action to curb land degradation. By managing land
sustainably, we can contribute to human security, stability and peace. The good news is that we
have many useful tools at hand that can halt land degradation and restore degraded land. With this
in mind, our mission to establish a land-degradation neutral world becomes even more urgent.
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By managing land sustainably,
we can contribute to human
security, stability and peace.
UNCCD News Issue 5.3
I have seen sustainable land management initiatives with genuinely stabilising effects in many
corners of the world. The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel Initiative is bringing a coordinated and harmonised response to food security and peace. The Sahel, which is the core area of
the initiative, is severely affected by land degradation and has experienced violent conflicts over
resources.
We are still in the early stages of exploring the link between land degradation and security. To get a
clearer picture of the human connections between poverty, conflict and environmental degradation,
the UNCCD secretariat is partnering with CAUX - Initiatives of Change for the 2014 Caux Dialogue
on Land and Security, an international conference to take place in Switzerland this summer. I am
looking forward to fruitful discussions at Caux and it is my sincere hope that they will provide the
UNCCD with further guidance about sustainable land management’s potential role in reducing the
risk of any form of conflict.
We are still in the early stages
of exploring the link between
land degradation and security.
But one thing is already clear: land degradation is much more than an environmental issue. It has
major implications for people’s livelihoods and has the potential to become a genuine security
challenge for many communities, societies and nations, especially for those engaged in agriculture.
Let’s tackle this nexus between land and security in an integrated manner. That means combining
a sustainable land management and a conflict prevention perspective. That’s what destabilised
dryland communities need for their human security.
Monique Barbut, Executive Secretary
IN FOCUS
Security beyond traditional dimensions
Imagine a map depicting areas of the world particularly affected by land degradation and a
map that highlights countries having experienced armed conflict in recent years. They look
quite similar. Does that tell us anything or are the similarities just a coincidence? In
searching for an answer, we need to look more closely at the assumed security implications
of land degradation.
Today, many conflicts occur in dryland regions affected by land degradation and declining
productivity. These regions are also particularly vulnerable to climate change. Drylands are prone to
drought and desertification, but they are vital for global food security today. However, one of the
most obvious effects of land degradation is food insecurity. The impacts of land degradation and
climate change could well lead to a situation in which people’s livelihoods are under stress. In that
case, social tensions are likely to arise.
Thomas Friedman from the New York Times sees this correlation existing in relation to the Arab
Spring and asks: “Isn’t it interesting that the Arab awakening began in Tunisia with a fruit vendor
who was harassed by police for not having a permit to sell food – just at the moment when world
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food prices hit record highs? And that it began in Syria with farmers in the southern village of
Dara’a, who were demanding the right to buy and sell land near the border without having to get
permission from corrupt security officials?”
New security dimensions
So there is more to security than simply the political, economic and social dimensions. As US
Secretary of State John Kerry pointed out in February 2014: “In a sense, climate change can now
be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of
mass destruction.” Lester Brown, President of the Earth Policy Institute, takes a similar view. He
puts climate change, population growth, water shortages, rising food prices and the number of
failing states in the world at the top of the list of real security threats today. However, land
degradation and other environmental impacts related to climate change are just some of the many
factors that might trigger conflict.
The world’s drylands are likely to be affected by more extreme weather with prolonged droughts
and flash floods, which will not only exacerbate food insecurity, but might also cause forced
migration, political instability, fragility and conflict. Some regions are more at risk than others. The
Sahel, for example, faces a high desertification rate with an estimated 350,000 hectares of land lost
per year. In addition, it is confronted with political instability – a worrisome combination of two critical
developments.
The United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventive Action has noted that land conflicts
tend to become violent when they are “linked to wider processes of political exclusion, social
discrimination, economic marginalization, and a perception that peaceful action is no longer a viable
strategy for change”. The framework goes even further and states that “land issues readily lend
themselves to conflict. Land is an important economic asset and source of livelihoods; it is also
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closely linked to community identity, history and culture. Communities, therefore, can readily
mobilize around land issues, making land a central object of conflict.”
Conflicts over land not a problem – if managed non-violently
To put things into the right perspective, it is important to remember that there have been and will
always be conflicts over resources such as land and water. There is, for example, a long tradition of
rivalry between pastoralists and farmers over agricultural and grazing lands and water in many parts
of the world. Most of these conflicts are limited in space and intensity; others have the potential to
escalate.
The mere existence of these conflicts is not the problem. What matters is that they are managed
and resolved in a non-violent manner. One small piece in the complex picture of peaceful conflict
resolution is sustainable land management. That’s why Ian Johnson, Secretary General, The Club of
Rome, concluded during the Caux Dialogue on Land and Security: “Getting land management right,
and getting it restored to increase the amount of useful land, strikes me as both a development
issue and also a peace issue.”
The other way round: effects of insecurity on land
But is the reverse also true? Does political and economic insecurity affect food security and land?
“The worsening of the food security situation in the Near East Region is ... largely driven by factors
such as conflicts, the flow of refugees and migration... Peace is fundamental for food security and
food security is fundamental for peace,” says the head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), José Graziano da Silva. In addition, in times of violent conflict when people’s
food security is seriously threatened due to factors such as forced migration, land restoration and
sustainable land management are not priorities. All that counts is harvesting enough grain to feed
the family for the next few months; sustainability has to be deferred.
UNCCD moving forward
For UNCCD Executive Secretary Monique Barbut, the situation is clear: land degradation is a major
driver of insecurity, forced migration and conflicts worldwide. She calls on the Convention’s stakeholders to address land degradation as an underlying cause of instability and insecurity. Action is
particularly needed in the areas of food security, water security and migration.
Monique Barbut: “We will consistently promote a joint approach to environmental decision-making
globally and full implementation of the UNCCD to deliver the greatest impact and multiple benefits to
stakeholders.” This includes, for example, the post-2015 development framework, synergies with
other conventions and strategies on climate change adaptation.
However, there are also obstacles to overcome. “Limited capacity and access to appropriate
knowledge and technology remains a key challenge to promoting UNCCD implementation. Parties
should be able to monitor and report, in a greatly simplified way, on their progress,” says Louise
Baker, Senior Adviser on Partnership Building and Resource Mobilization at the UNCCD Secretariat.
The far-reaching security implications of land degradation and drought make the UNCCD’s cause
even more pressing. It’s about land. And it’s about peace.
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UNCCD’s cause is
about land – and
it’s about peace.
UNCCD News Issue 5.3
Desertification: the invisible frontline
The UNCCD Secretariat recently published a brochure entitled Desertification. The Invisible
Frontline. It gives an overview of the various security touchpoints between desertification, land
degradation and drought. These are:
Food insecurity
If land degrades, its agricultural productivity decreases. The result is less food for an ever growing
population, leading to malnutrition and hunger. If there are no policies in place to reduce the
impact of food insecurity, it can provoke civil unrest. In 2008, food insecurity sparked off riots in
more than 30 countries.
Water insecurity
When the rains fail to come and drought takes away the basic prerequisites for survival, many
people see only two ways out of their dilemma. Firstly, they may dispute others’ claims to scarce
water resources and perhaps even take up arms. Secondly, they may decide to leave their
degraded land in search of water elsewhere. But migration impacts heavily on societies and so
the abandoned land lies bare, with little chance of being restored. Replenishing underground
water sources, water-sensitive land management and drought-resistant farming techniques could
therefore help to prevent conflicts over water in drylands.
Climate change
More severe droughts and new rainfall patterns are only two of the expected effects of climate
change in dryland regions. Climate change is likely to increase land degradation and desertification and increase people’s vulnerability. This in turn could trigger violent conflict at local,
national or regional level.
National security
States have a responsibility to ensure that natural resources are allocated so that everybody’s
basic needs are met. But what happens if there are not sufficient resources available, because
land degrades or is grabbed by large investors? In this situation, states and governments come
under political and economic pressure, which may even open the door to agents of radicalisation
and extremism.
Not an inevitable development
However, simply being aware of these security implications is not enough, so the brochure
suggests land-related ways to promote security and peace. First, investments in large-scale
restoration initiatives are needed. Second, because fragile states are prone to conflict, institutional
reforms are essential, for example to facilitate sound agricultural policies. Third, farmers have to
apply sustainable land management practices whose effectiveness is already proven.
So the bad news is that land degradation can be a security risk. But there is also a positive side
to the story: this is not an inevitable development. Because managing land sustainably can halt
land degradation, it may also prevent conflict over land – one of our most precious resources.
Syria’s conflict: is land degradation part of the story?
The outbreak of armed conflict in Syria in 2011 has triggered a humanitarian disaster on a vast
scale. According to the United Nations, more than 100,000 people have been killed and around
700,000 injured. Almost 10 million people depend on aid inside the country, of whom at least
6.5 million are internally displaced, and a further 2.5 million are refugees in neighbouring countries.
And there is no sign of any end to the suffering.
The crisis before the crisis
But for many Syrians, especially for farmers, the crisis began much earlier. In 2006, a period of
severe drought started to hit the country and dust storms heralded the onset of a previously
unthinkable humanitarian crisis. The United Nations and the International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies reported in 2009 that more than 800,000 Syrians had lost their
livelihoods as a result of the droughts. Around 200,000 farmers simply abandoned their land.
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In 2011, crop failure amounted to 75% and in some areas, agriculture ceased completely. As a
result, the country increasingly depended on grain imports, and hundreds of thousands of people
fled from rural areas into the cities, which already accommodated around 350,000 Palestinian and
Iraqi refugees.
Degraded land
In addition to drought, Syria’s arable land is severely impacted by unsustainable farming techniques.
Overgrazing, water-intensive cotton and wheat production and ineffective irrigation techniques have
taken their toll and contributed to land degradation. According to the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP), in 2008, desertification affected a quarter of Syria’s land used to feed
livestock. This figure may have increased considerably since then.
Social fabric under stress
Food price hikes and the pressure on cities resulting from an influx of refugees from abroad and
rural Syrians leaving their home areas in pursuit of work have contributed to social unrest. “You had
a lot of angry, unemployed men helping to trigger a revolution,” says Aaron Wolf, a water
management expert at Oregon State University, quoted in The Smithsonian magazine. And
according to Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell, co-founders of the Center for Climate and
Security, a think tank focused on the interactions between climate change and security issues: “The
seeds of social unrest ... were right under the surface.”
“The seeds of social unrest ...
were right under the surface.”
(F. Femia and C. Werrell)
The central management of the political regime constrained people’s social adaptive capacities and
did not have any decentralised people-centred development models in place. That, in turn, limited
local people’s innovation and resilience capacities to adapt to and mitigate climate change.
Combined with the effects of drought, these factors negatively affected people’s humanenvironmental security.
Drought and land degradation – triggers, multipliers or drivers of conflict?
Scientists, journalists and policy-makers see or suspect a connection here. Some of them, such as
Nafeez Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development, take the view that the
conflict in Syria is “the result of converging climate” among other factors, but others are more
cautious and refer merely to stressors or drivers. But William Polk, an American policy advisor with
decades of experience, says: “Politically, they [the dust storms] triggered the civil war.”
However, science will have to provide evidence for this link. As Franceso Femia and Caitlin Werrell
point out: “The degree to which internal population displacement and rural disaffection are driving
unrest has been difficult to study given the continuing instability, but available evidence suggests
that the influence of this phenomenon may not be insignificant.” For example, the city of Dara’a, a
hotbed of the early protests in 2011, had been severely impacted by five consecutive years of
drought and water scarcity.
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Syrian refugees in Iraq
Peace strategies
While the conflict continues to cause grave concerns about human security in Syria, long-term
strategies for sustainable land management are highly unlikely to be a priority. However, as the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests, yields of rainfed crops in Syria may
decline by 29-57% from 2010 to 2050 due to climate change. A long-term peace strategy for this
country must therefore include political, social, economic AND land management issues. In the
world’s drylands, droughts alone can result in human disasters. Action is essential to ensure that
they do not become triggers of armed conflict.
A long-term peace strategy
for Syria must include land
management issues.
INTERVIEW
Access to land and water – the key to security
in drylands
Hartmut Behrend is a climatologist at the German Armed Forces’ Geoinformation Office.
He specialises in the impact of environmental degradation on security. From 2010 to 2013,
he worked at NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), where he
advised the newly established Comprehensive Crisis Operations and Management Centre
on the security threats caused by environmental degradation. He has been a policy advisor
on climate change for most of his professional life, feeding scientific results into the policymaking process. For example, he was involved in formulating the first climate change
policies for Germany in 1990 and later developed climate policies for the European
Commission.
1. Which security risks are related to land degradation?
From a security perspective, the most important effects of land degradation are declining
agricultural productivity and reduced access to water, especially in poor developing countries. I see
these risks especially in the arid countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in Southwest and Central Asia.
Ultimately, land degradation leads to less food production. And that means more food insecurity.
It also contributes to migration because the number of people who can no longer sustain their
livelihoods is increasing. Of course, land degradation is just one of many causes of migration. Other
political, economic, social and environmental factors come into play as well.
2. What are the security effects of large-scale migration?
Migration often overexploits the governance capabilities of fragile states, leading to a further
deterioration of governance. This is particularly true of the drylands.
Migration also has security implications in that it is often directed towards cities along the coasts,
where people mainly settle in floodplain regions, which are at risk from rising sea levels because of
climate change. So these megacities face two serious challenges, which also interact.
Currently, the most important migration flow I see is from Bangladesh to India, which is amplified
mainly by other effects of climate change rather than by land degradation. A second worrying
migration stream, in which land degradation is a major contributory factor, is moving from the Sahel
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to the African Gold Coast. The United Nations Environment Programme utilised predictions which
show that between the Nigerian megacity Lagos and the Ghanaian capital Accra, an urban
agglomeration with a population of up to 50 million will spring up in the coming decades.
3. What does the relationship between land degradation and security risks mean for NATO’s
general understanding of security?
So far, NATO has mainly focused on the security of neighbouring countries rather than of regions
further south, despite operations far away like ISAF in Afghanistan. Today, however, the organisation
also addresses issues of instability and fragility in other regions in a comprehensive way. One
example is the Sahel, where groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda began to use certain areas as a place
to organise themselves.
The war in Mali in 2012-2013 was closely related to this development. In addition, the terrorist attack
on a gas plant in Algeria in January 2013 demonstrated how quickly instability can spill over towards
NATO’s neighbourhood.
4. How do key security actors such as NATO react to these challenges?
Today, NATO addresses
issues of instability and
fragility in other regions in a
comprehensive way.
NATO is primarily interested in securing peace, until recently in a rather traditional sense without
looking that much into issues associated with human security, which implies a more individual
understanding of security including economic, health, environmental and personal security.
However, the civil war in Libya in the wake of the Arab Spring was a rather new situation which took
the international community by surprise and led to a new NATO operation. Member countries’
military actors realised that they were not able to forecast or prevent the conflict in Libya. But
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NATO’s new strategic concept, adopted in Lisbon back in 2010, had already recognised the
growing importance of cooperation with civilian actors, which has been speeded up especially after
the operation in Libya. Furthermore, budget constraints in most NATO countries – most of which are
currently reducing their defence budgets – encourage NATO even more to prevent conflicts instead
of being confronted with new operations.
For NATO, the risks can
mainly be reduced by
cooperating with civilian
actors.
The operation in Libya was also one of the driving forces which led to the establishment of the
Comprehensive Crisis and Operations Management Centre (CCOMC) at NATO’s military
headquarters. A Crisis Identification Group is currently being set up there. It is tasked with “horizon
scanning”, which means predicting potential security threats which might affect NATO. This will then
inform the CCOMC framework’s cooperation with civilian partners.
Libyans fled violence across the border to Tunisia.
5. How can the risks mentioned above be reduced? Are any suitable conflict mitigation
measures available?
From a NATO perspective, these risks can mainly be reduced by cooperating with civilian actors,
especially development organisations. This type of cooperation will therefore be high on NATO’s
future agenda. It is still in a very early stage, but will develop in the near future.
From a general point of view, the most important prevention measure is to considerably improve
land and water management, especially in drylands, for example by restoring soils. That will help to
increase agricultural productivity and food security. In addition, people need security in terms of
land tenure. They need to know that they will continue to have access to land to grow their food.
6. What about links with climate mitigation and adaptation?
I see climate change mitigation and adaptation as another very important issue, to which a great
deal of money is currently being allocated. Large amounts of carbon are stored in the soil. In fact,
desertification and soil degradation accounted for around 5% of man-made greenhouse gas
emissions during recent decades. The carbon sequestration function of degraded soils is
considerably reduced compared with healthy soils.
There are already quite a few examples of the risk-reducing effects of climate change adaptation
measures. In Niger, Malawi and Zambia, for example, techniques such as agroforestry are being
used more frequently.
Risk-reducing effects of
climate change adaptation
measures
7. Are there additional entry points for tackling security issues related to environmental
degradation?
Initial adaptation projects financed by the United Nations Least Developed Countries Fund have
started and are closely linked to sustainable land management. For example, 50% of the related
adaptation measures in Mali address soil restoration. These measures also reduce security risks.
This is just one starting point. At the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in Copenhagen back
in 2009, the industrialised countries pledged to provide USD 20-30 billion for climate measures from
2010 - 2012 as a fast-start action and USD 100 billion per year starting in 2020. This offers huge
potential which we have to use. And we have to use it now!
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However, although the National Adaptation Programmes of Action within the UNFCCC framework
contribute to reducing security risks, for example, the climate community is only just beginning to
make a conscious link between these actions and security. Just last week, an important step was
taken in the right direction: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the
second instalment of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which includes one chapter dedicated to
security issues.
The climate community is
only just beginning to make
a conscious link between
adaptation actions and
security.
8. Do you currently see any imminent land-related security risks?
At present, the entire Sahel belt is threatened by a looming famine. Currently, around 20 million
people are food-insecure and this number is dramatically increasing. ECHO and FAO issued
warnings back in February about the early start of the lean season.
We also have to keep an eye on land grabbing, which is escalating very quickly. Around 3% of the
world’s agricultural land is in foreign hands, either leased or sold. Of this entire area, 10% is already
being used by the foreign investors, most of it to grow biofuel feedstocks and to feed richer
countries. The alarming fact, however, is that the area which is already in use by foreign investors
tripled from June 2013 to January 2014 according to most recent data.
Local communities are left empty-handed. This situation is a perfect breeding ground for conflict
and violence. So we urgently need to address this issue.
SCIENCE
A contested link: land degradation, climate change
and conflict
Is there a link between land degradation and conflict in the world’s drylands? If so, what’s the
connection? Researchers have started to take a closer look at this question, also in the broader
context of climate change impacts. Based on the findings of their research, scientists draw a broad
range of conclusions. For some of them, the correlation is obvious, whereas others are more
cautious and refer to environmental stressors, threat multipliers or threat amplifiers impacting armed
conflicts.
At present, there is no scientific evidence proving that desertification, climate change and conflict
interact. Researchers agree that land and other environmental degradation could be contributory
factors to conflict but would never be the sole cause. As with all conflicts, there is always a mixture
of causes and drivers such as political repression, economic crises and hostility between social
groups. The question is how dominant one factor is in relation to others.
Many scholars therefore see a need for more extensive research. Only then will it be possible to
gain a more accurate picture as the basis for sound policy recommendations.
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There’s a need for more
extensive research.
UNCCD News Issue 5.3
Here are some recently published scientific views on the topic:
Terra incognita
“Land degradation should perhaps be considered not as a ‘threat multiplier’ like climate change,
but rather as a ‘threat amplifier’, since it slowly reduces people’s ability to use land for food
production and water storage, which in turn increases the degree of insecurity ... The topic to a
large extent proved to be a terra incognita ... It is very likely that an indirect relationship between
land degradation and conflict exists. This applies in particular to poor countries, where populations are heavily dependent on locally produced food. This local effect appears most relevant for
the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as for countries in south-east and central Asia.”
Louise van Schaik and Rosa Dinnissen (2014), Terra Incognita: land degradation as underestimated threat amplifier, Clingendael report for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
(PBL). » REPORT
Indirect effects via economic performance and migration
“Results from quantitative large-N studies, however, strongly suggest that we should be careful in
drawing general conclusions ... Environmental changes may, under specific circumstances,
increase the risk of violent conflict, but not necessarily in a systematic way and unconditionally.
One of the key issues is that the effects of environmental changes on violent conflict are likely to
be contingent on a set of economic and political conditions that determine adaptation capacity ...
The most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic
performance and migration to violent conflict.”
Thomas Bernauer, Tobias Böhmelt and Vally Koubi (2012), Environmental changes and violent
conflict, Environmental Research Letters 7:1-8. » ARTICLE
Serious risk of misguided policy
“Countries that are affected by climate-related natural disasters face a lower risk of civil war. One
worrying facet of the claims that environmental factors cause conflict is that they may contribute to
directing attention away from more important conflict-promoting factors, such as poor governance
and poverty. There is a serious risk of misguided policy to prevent civil conflict if the assumption
that disasters have a significant effect on war is allowed to overshadow more important causes.”
Rune T Slettebak (2012), Don’t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil
conflict, Journal of Peace Research 49(1) 163-176. » JOURNAL
Security syndromes of environmental conflicts
“Climate change so far has not directly affected large-scale conflicts such as war and will more
likely cause small-scale events of societal instability and low-level conflicts. The latter have tended
to increase in recent decades ... A challenge for future research is to expand and combine
databases on various environmental conflicts, and socio-economic variable in order to identify
security syndromes in regional climate hot spots.”
Jürgen Scheffran, P. Michael Link, Janpeter Schilling (2012), Theories and Models of ClimateSecurity Interaction: Framework and Application to a Climate Hot Spot in North Africa, in: Jürgen
Scheffran, Michael Broszka et al. (ed), Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict,
Berlin.
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Exposure and vulnerability
“The overall risk of disruption to a society from a climate event is determined by the interplay
among several factors: event severity, exposure of people or valued things, and the vulnerability of
those people or things, including susceptibility to harm and the effectiveness of coping, response,
and recovery. Exposure and vulnerability may pertain to the direct effects of a climate event or to
effects mediated by globalized systems that support the well-being of the society. The security
risks are unlikely to be anticipated by looking only at climate trends and projections.”
National Research Council (2013), Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis,
Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. » STUDY
Mali: fighters of the Islamist group “Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa”
Substantial increase of conflict risks
“Deviations from normal precipitation and mild temperatures systematically increase the risk of
conflict, often substantially. This relationship is apparent across spatial scales ranging from a
single building to the globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an
anomalous millennium. Each 1-SD change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more
extreme rainfall increases the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by
14% (median estimates)... Amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical
social impact of anthropogenic climate change in both low- and high-income countries.”
Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke and Edward Miguel (2013), Quantifying the Influence of
Climate on Human Conflict, Science Vol. 341 no. 6151. » ABSTRACT
Climate change: a threat multiplier in the Arab world
“In the Arab world, climate change has acted as a threat multiplier, exacerbating environmental,
social, economic, and political drivers of unrest, including drought, water scarcity, food security,
and migration, and it will likely continue to do so as the countries of the Middle East and North
Africa region transition and change. In this context, addressing the effects of climate change in
the Arab world will be critical for ensuring the longer-term stability of the region and legitimacy
of its respective governments. As Arab publics demand voice and representation, they will also
demand that their governments provide them with the resources necessary not just for protection
and survival but also for growth and prosperity.”
Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia (ed.) (2013), The Arab Spring and Climate Change A
Climate and Security Correlations Series, Center for American Progress. » REPORT
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New horizons for a new security deal
“Climate change may also hinder the negotiation of future water peace agreements on shared
waters. A shrinking quantity of water to allocate between parties (whether as a result of reduced
supply or increased demand or climate change) will almost inevitably complicate relations
between countries, making it increasingly hard to negotiate new peace agreements.
Integrated water management, eco-regions and regionalism, can offer new horizons for a new
“security deal” in an era of climate change and economic and political volatility. Policy makers
need to realize that there is a cost for inaction and urgency for collective action to face climate
change is a necessary condition for a sustainable human civilization.”
Prof. Odeh Al-Jayyousi (2014), Climate Change and Security in the Middle East: New Discourse
for Sustainability » PAPER
GOOD PRACTICE
Initiatives for Land, Lives and Peace in
Baringo County, Kenya
The ground is bare of vegetation, with loose sandy loam soil. In the dry season, wells, streams and
rivers dry up. But once the rain falls, it comes down in torrents, washing away the fertile topsoil.
90% of the land is not well suited for agriculture, so most people are nomadic pastoralists. Their
livelihood security is based around cattle – tough breeds that can survive and thrive in this
challenging environment.
Welcome to northern Kenya. Living conditions here are harsh, and competition over fertile grazing
lands and water can easily escalate into conflicts. Cattle rustling, for example, has become a serious
problem. In November 2012 alone, 40 police officers were shot dead in Turkana County when they
were ambushed while tracking armed raiders.
But there is reason for optimism about the potential of sustainable land management in adverse
environments and peaceful conflict resolution in tense situations. The optimism stems from recent
developments in the county of Baringo.
Rivalry over pasture and water
Sharing land and water, which are common resources, has become a major challenge for the Pokot,
Tugen, Ilchamus, Turkana and other communities in Baringo County. These ethnic groups have
developed a deep mistrust of one another. Tensions have increased, for example, because Turkana
people search for water and pasture in agricultural areas in Laikipia and Pokots raid Turkana villages
in a bid to gain control of local resources. More and more often, these animosities have escalated
into violence and armed conflict. The fear of cattle rustling haunts the land.
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A conflict assessment of northern Kenya by Pragya, an NGO working for the appropriate development of vulnerable communities and sensitive ecosystems, reports clashes occurring between the
Tugen and Pokot in May 2012. At least five people died, and violence displaced more than 7,000
people and led to the closure of more than 10 schools.
Tensions about land and water
have increased in northern
Kenya.
Building peace
Although most people are concerned about this new level of insecurity, finding a way out of the
conflict trap is not easy and many attempts at conflict resolution have failed. The armed conflicts
have also led to the suspension of many land restoration projects. No peace, no development.
But in 2012, the Initiatives for Land, Lives and Peace (ILLP), carried out by Initiatives of Change
International, called a meeting of the Pokot, Ilchamus and Tugen community leaders which proved
to be a milestone in the constructive management of the conflict. The leaders formed a peace
committee and agreed to overcome their interethnic hostility.
A few months later, nine community leaders from Baringo County participated in a training seminar
for grassroots practitioners. There, they watched the film An African Answer by Alan Channer. The
film depicts an African initiative to foster healing and reconciliation, and in Baringo, it had a powerful
impact. By the end of the seminar, the community leaders had developed a shared vision and an
action plan to end cattle rustling in their county.
Initiatives for Land, Lives and Peace (ILLP): peace-building through land restoration
ILLP aims to empower local dryland communities to restore peace and dialogue and then work
together on creating a virtuous cycle of soil and water con-servation. It is carried out by Initiatives
of Change International.
The programme focuses on the links between land degradation and human security. Its work is
based on the conviction that the basis for land restoration and the resolution of land-based
conflicts is a change in people’s behaviour, attitudes and relationships towards other stakeholders such as neighbouring communities.
Initiatives of Change International had worked on land restoration issues for quite some time
when in 2012 and 2013, the UNCCD partnered up with the NGO in order to dedicate the Caux
Forum for Human Security to the link between land and conflict. A delegation from Baringo
County will participate in the 2014 Caux Forum.
At another workshop on ‘Trust-building for sustainable development’, the film had a similar effect on
participating community leaders, women, young people and elders. Initiatives of Change International reported that “genuine apologies for the pain and suffering the communities had inflicted upon
one another were made... A Turkana lady was moved to tears when an Ilchamus youth apologised
for his role in the raiding of a Turkana settlement.”
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Participants learned that there is a long history of conflict over pasture and water in the region.
However, in the past, elders from the different ethnic groups had peacefully negotiated access to
dry-season grazing. These negotiations ceased when the tribal relationships were politicised,
automatic weapons became available, droughts and degradation took their toll and population
growth increased pressure on food production.
Sustainable land management: a prerequisite for peace
Usually, attempts to peacefully resolve a conflict, no matter how well-intended, won’t last long
unless the root causes of the conflict are addressed. In the case of Baringo, these are (among
others) land degradation and the difference between what the land can supply and what people
demand from it to secure their livelihoods. If there were plentiful supplies of water, grazing and
productive soil in Baringo, it probably wouldn’t occur to anyone to rustle a neighbouring community’s cattle using automatic weapons.
Only when its root causes are
addressed, can the conflict
be solved.
Much of Baringo County’s dryland is degraded; vegetation cover has become scarce and biodiversity has radically declined in recent years. Far too many trees were felled in the past, leading to
serious land erosion.
But even in these harsh conditions, there is potential to boost agricultural yields. For example,
farmers are advised to plant inter-crops, such as Irish potatoes, which can grow during the short
rainy seasons. In addition, storage silos for harvests have the potential to enhance food security,
because farmers would not have to sell their products at low prices as soon as they were harvested,
but could store them until the beginning of the new year, according to Kenya News Agency reports
from a food security meeting of Baringo’s governor with the national government, UNICEF, the
World Food Programme, World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and other non-governmental organisations.
The Initiatives for Land, Lives and Peace programme is encouraging attention on sand dams. These
are reinforced concrete walls installed in seasonal riverbeds to create higher riverbeds that – like a
sponge – store water during the dry season. ILLP linked up the communities in Baringo with
Excellent Development, a UK and Kenya-based charity which provides training in the construction
of sand dams. “A sand dam can hold between two and 20 million litres of water,” Simon Maddrell,
the executive director of Excellent Development, explains. He is convinced that “the answer to
restoring lands is the conservation of soil and water”. Water needs to be retained in the soil.
Terracing, planting trees to prevent soil erosion and allow the land to absorb water, and building
sand dams to retain the water from the rainy season in the land are suitable techniques to successfully restore land.
Exchanging an AK47 for indigenous grass seed
Joseph Kwopin from the Pokot community was once a victim of one of the many cattle raids. 42 of
his cows were stolen – despite the AK47 he carried with him on his long journeys to find grazing
lands. Finally, as a last resort, he turned his attention to degraded land and sowed indigenous grass
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seed. Today, the grass fattens livestock on more than 30 acres of pasture. In addition, his business
includes a fodder bank and grass seed, which he sells to other farmers. Joseph Kwopin has
demonstrated that with the right techniques, it is possible to maintain pastoralism in Baringo. “It is
the people factor that is often the most critical for sustainability,” says Elizabeth Meyerhoff Roberts,
a co-director of the Rehabilitation of Arid Environments Trust, which works in Baringo County and
gained special recognition at the UNCCD Land for Life Award 2013.
Warrior qualities dismissed
Baringo County’s Deputy Governor, Mathew Tuitoek, makes it clear that “without peace, we cannot
have development in this county”. But without productive land, the county has no chance of
experiencing peace. The bare ground of Baringo County reveals the close link between conflict
resolution and land restoration. Once, the people of Baringo County were respected for their warrior
qualities and their ability to defend their scarce resources. Today, they are recognised for something
else – their reconciliation and sustainable land management efforts.
An audiovisual approach to peacebuilding
Dr Alan Channer, co-director of FLTfilms, who is deeply involved in the Initiatives
for Land, Lives and Peace, takes an audiovisual approach to peacebuilding.
He translated his film An African Answer into Swahili and screened it in Kenya.
The film depicts peace-building methods led by two faith leaders – Imam
Ashafa and Pastor Wuye from Nigeria.
Alan Channer then filmed the workshop in Baringo County in order to
inspire other communities. The film Transforming Land, Transforming Lives
in Baringo County, Kenya can be viewed on the UNCCD website.
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About the UNCCD
Developed as a result of the Rio Summit, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
(UNCCD) is a unique instrument that has brought attention to the land degradation affecting some of the
most vulnerable people and ecosystems in the world. The UNCCD has 195 Parties (194 countries plus
the European Union) and is one of the three Rio Conventions, along with the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The UNCCD is increasingly recognised as an instrument that can make an important contribution to the achievement of
sustainable development and poverty reduction.
For more information: External Relations, Policy and Advocacy Unit, UNCCD
Tel: + 49 228 815 2800 | Fax: + 49 228 815 2898 | [email protected] | www.unccd.int
Contact UNCCD News at [email protected]
UNCCD News
UNCCD News is published by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
Editor: to the point communication (Susanne Reiff, Hillary Crowe) (Email)
Copyright ©2014 UNCCD (Email)
Photo credits: p.1: IRIN/Anthony Morland, UNCCD, UN Photo/OCHA/David Ohana, IRIN/George Kurian,
Alan Channer, UNCCD, p. 2: UN Photo/Tobin Jones, p. 3: IRIN/Tanya Bindra, UN Photo/Evan Schneider,
IFAD/David Rose, p. 4: Nonviolence Peaceforce, Julien Harneis/flickr.com, p. 5: UNCCD, UN Photo/Gill
Fickling, IFAD/Susan Beccio, p. 6: UN Photo/David Manyua, 2x IFAD/Sarah Morgan, p. 7: IRIN/Heba Aly;
private, p. 8: CCAFS/C. Schubert, NATO, p. 9: UN Photo/UNHCR/A. Duclos, p. 10: Oxfam/Simon Rawles,
p. 11: Photoshare/Raymond Baguma, IRIN/Jodi Hilton, p. 12: IRIN/Brahima Ouedraogo, p. 13: Alan
Channer, p. 14: Alan Channer, p. 15: 2x Alan Channer, p. 16: Alan Channer.
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