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Expected Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Soil Moisture Regimes in Central Europe and Central US
P. Hlavinka (1), M. Trnka (1), M. Hayes (2), M. Dubrovský (3), M. Svoboda (2), J. Eitzinger (4), J. Bálek (1), Semerádová D. (1), L. Bartošová (1)
(1) Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno (MUAF), Czech Republic ([email protected] / Phone: +420-5-4513-3083)
(2) National Drought Mitigation Center, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, USA
(3) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
(4) Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Austria
MOTIVATION
RESULTS
AIMS
1) To test performance of the SoilClim model over the range of climatic
conditions in the Central Europe and Central US.
2) To determine the soil moisture and temperature regime under the present
climate conditions;
Figure 1:. The overview of the soil moisture regimes (USDA – NRCS, 1999) and the density of the weather stations in
the case study regions.
METHODS AND DATA
1) Daily weather data from 125 stations in the Czech Republic and 59 from the
High Plains region were available for the study;
2) The input data were fed into the SoilClim model (Fig 2).
Figure 2:. The overview of the
SoilClim model individual parts
including input parameters.
a)
b)
b)
b)
3a, b: Comparison of simulated (by SoilClim) and observed water
content in whole profile and model layers (L1 and L2) on two soil types: deep
grounded chernosem (a) and sandy chernosem (b). Soil moisture was observed
and simulated under various field crops within Lysimetric station in GrossEnzersdorf (Austria).
Present and expected soil Present and expected soil
Climate in Central Europe
Climate in High Plains
The study regions are located in the centre of Europe with mixed influence of oceanic and continental climate and
in the High Plains where continentality is more pronounced. In the Central Europe relatively high density of
stations was available for the study whilst in the High Plains region the number of station available was somewhat
lower. Both regions include ustic and udic hydric regimes according to USDA.
a)
Figure
3) To estimate change of both regimes over 21st century.
STUDY AREA
References: with the authors
a)
Evaluation of SoilClim
1) Soils are an important control on water fluxes in the landscape and in many parts of the world act as
the most important water reservoir mitigating the effects of rainfall variability.
2) Soil moisture and temperature regimes are inherently more stable and quantifiable than their
atmospheric counterparts and are essential for determining the environmental conditions of any region.
3) They can also be used to demonstrate the impacts of climate change on a given region as they
integrate not only the change of climate variables but also existing soil condition status and plant
cover.
This study was conducted with support of the 6th FP EU research
projects CECILIA (no GOCE 037005) and the research plan No.
MSM6215648905 “Biological and technological aspects of sustainability
of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change“.
Project KONTAKT ME 844 enabled international cooperation between
Czech researchers and the National Drought Mitigation Centre
(University of Nebraska, Lincoln).
Figure 4a, b: Simulated (by SoilClim) and observed
water content in soil on two grassland sites at 2
Austrian stations: Gumpenstein – Alpine (a) and
Kirchberg – Highland (b).
2050-SRES B1
1961-2000
a)
Figure 5a, b: Simulated (by SoilClim) and observed
soil temperature (a) and actual evapotranspiration
(b) at the Mendel University observatory in
Žabčice.
c)
d)
e)
2100-SRES B1
b)
a)
c)
Figure 8 a-c: Soil temperature at 50 cm depth as an
indicator of the soil Thermic regime for the period 19612000 (a) and time frame of 2100 (b-c) for SRES B1 and
A2 scenarios and HadCM global circulation model.
Figure 7a-e: Hydric Soil Regime for the period 1961-2000 (a) and
time frames of 2050 (b-c) and 2100 (d-e) for SRES B1 and A2
scenarios and HadCM global circulation model.
2100-SRES B1
Figure
(b) soil horizonts at five AWDN weather stations in Nebraska between 1999 and 2006.
1961-2000
2050-SRES A2
b)
Figure 6a, b: Simulated (by SoilClim) and observed soil moisture at the top (a) and lower
2100-SRES A2
2100-SRES A2
9a-b: Hydric
Soil regimes at 59
stations in the High
Plains region during
period 1981-2000 (a)
and time frame of
2100 (b) for SRES
A2 emission scenario
and HadCM global
circulation
model.
The area between
stations with udic
and ustic regimes
approximates
the
position
of
the
pedocal/
pedalfer
boundary line.
1961-2000
2100-SRES A2
Figure 10 a-b: Soil temperature at 50 cm depth as an indicator of the soil Thermic regime for the period
1981-2000 (a) and time frame of 2100 (b) for SRES A2 emission scenario and HadCM global circulation
model. The estimates are given for 59 AWDN stations in the High Plains region.
1981-2000
2100-SRES A2
CONCLUSIONS
3) Based on the series of daily observed data set of 99 year-long synthetic
series for present and future climate conditions were generated. The soil
profile is described in terms of the maximum water holding capacity of the
root zone (MWHC) was available for the whole territory in case of the
Central Europe and for individual sites in the High Plains.
Model SoilClim realistically reproduces soil moisture, temperature and ETa values in both Central Europe and High Plains region
and should be thus able to estimate correctly the soil moisture regime.
Significant shifts of soil climate ought to be expected under the climate change through out the Central Europe . The
establishment of presently missing Wet Tempustic regime and severe reduction of Perudic areas in the upper parts of river basins is
very likely by 2050.
Drier hydric regimes should be expected also in the High Plain region accompanied by likely eastward shift of Pedalfer/Pedocalc
line resulting in higher drought probability than during 20th century.