Download References to population in selected reports

References to population in selected reports
References to population in selected reports
Overseas Development Institute (ODI), European Centre for Development Policy Management
(ECDPM), German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (GDI/DIE)
The 2011/2012 European Report on Development, Confronting Scarcity: Managing Water, Energy
and Land for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth
2012
http://www.die-gdi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdfs/dauerthemen_spezial/EuropeanCommission_European-Report-on-Development-2011-2012.pdf
FOREWORD
Water, energy and land, three crucial resources for development and human well-being, are under
increasing strain due to rising food prices, climate change, global population growth and economic
growth. Today almost a billion people are undernourished, 0.9 billion have no safe water and 1.5
billion no source of electricity. Worse still, at current rates, by 2030 demand for energy and water
will have grown by 40% – and by 50% for food.
p17
A rising world population and global economic growth place new pressures on natural resources.
Rising global incomes can support the development of the institutional capacities and
infrastructure needed to provide access, but they are also expected to increase the demand for
energy and water by 40% and for food by 50% by 2030.
p28
Human consumption is the basic driver of natural resource use. (…) Population growth is one of
the most important drivers of natural resources use, although its effect is always mediated by
other social and economic factors: it is not just about the size of population but also about the way
in which people behave.
p29
If past trends are typical, the use of natural resources and the demands for ecosystem services will
continue to increase as population grows and incomes rise (Krausmann et al., 2009). Existing
projections (e.g. Prins and Kok, 2011), already suggest that the demand for water, energy, land
and their linkages will result in unprecedented pressure on resources and pose considerable
governance challenges.
p29
To achieve the type and amount of food production required to meet future demand, there will be
an increase both in water withdrawals for irrigation and rainwater use. In the light of current
patterns of use and projections of world GDP, the demand for water is expected to increase by
around 50% by 2050 (…) Even if water use becomes more efficient through improvements in
irrigation systems and other types of technology, it is still very likely that some areas of the world
will not have enough water to produce crops. Climate change will complicate this picture.
p 30
Since 1960, agricultural area has increased from just below 4.5 billion hectares (ha) to just over 4.9
billion ha in 2007 (http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx). Over the same period, the
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References to population in selected reports
amount of land per capita halved (from 0.39 to 0.21 hectares), but demand for it is increasing
rapidly (Evans, 2011).
p27
(…) the production of renewable energy may require the use of additional land and water, which
can affect the availability of these resources for future generations when combined with the
pressures of climate change, population growth and food security.
p86
The increased supply of renewable energy is likely to create stress on water and the environment
(…) especially for biofuels. In countries such as China and India, with strong population and
economic growth, this stress may be particularly severe.
p87
It is estimated that agricultural production must double by 2050 compared to current levels, simply
to meet the needs of a growing population. Changes in diet, with greater demand for meat and
other animal products, will intensify these needs
p88
Demand for land is high and growing. It has been estimated that to meet projected global demand
by 2030 some 47 million ha of additional land must be brought into production for food and feed
alone (…) there is also a need for land for the growing urban population (estimated at about 16
million ha per year), often the most fertile lands, large infrastructure (e.g. dams) and tourism.
p104
The world is moving towards a situation of absolute scarcity of certain resources and sink
capacities. Globally, human beings are already using nearly 25% of all biomass produced by the
Earth’s land and more than 40% of all renewable and accessible freshwater resources. If all coal
reserves were burned for electricity generation this would exceed the atmosphere’s sink capacity
for CO2 and push global warming beyond the 2°C target by a factor of 58
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
21 Issues for the 21st Century: Result of the UNEP Foresight Process on Emerging Environmental
Issues.
February 2012
http://www.unep.org/pdf/Foresight_Report-21_Issues_for_the_21st_Century.pdf
NOTE - as well as covering the usual issues, this report is important because it points out that socalled "green technologies" are not a panacea, in fact are often counterproductive if demand is not
curbed. It also discusses strategic land acquisitions.
p17
Although food security is an age-old preoccupation of humanity, new threats to this security are
constantly arising. The most recent list includes climate change, competition for land from
bioenergy production, heightened water scarcity, and possible shortfalls of phosphorus for
fertilizer. Many of the older challenges still remain, including degradation of agricultural land,
competition for land with cities, and increasing demand for food due to growth in population and
affluence.
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p17
The US Department of Agriculture (2011) estimates the number of ‘food-insecure’ people (as of
2010) in 77 developing countries at 861 million. Meanwhile, the UN says that the world population
is likely to reach 9 billion by 2050. Most of these billions will live in developing countries and have
higher incomes, which in turn will further increase the demand for food. The implication is that
food production has to grow still further over the next half-century to cover this new demand.
When the effects of climate change are taken into account (higher temperatures, shifting seasons,
more frequent and extreme weather events such as floods and droughts), the challenge for food
production becomes even more daunting.
p17
In addition to the combined pressures of a larger population and climate change, farmers will
compete for land with both old competitors, such as expanding cities, and perhaps new
competitors, such as reforestation and nature conservation projects, and energy cropping for
bioenergy.
p22
Although the area of agricultural land has been expanding in developing countries for decades, a
boom in commodity prices in 2008 led to a surge in investments from abroad. The size of the surge
is uncertain, but a 2011 Oxfam report stated that up to 227 million hectares have been sold or
leased worldwide since 2001, with the bulk of the acquisitions occurring in the past two years.
Another report in 2010 by the World Bank says that investors expressed interest in around 56
million hectares of land in 2009 alone, with about two-thirds of the investments taking place in
Sub- Saharan Africa. In the same vein, the Global Land Project estimated in 2010 that between 51
and 63 million hectares of land were either part of finalized land deals or under negotiation in 27
African countries in 2009. By comparison, agricultural land worldwide grew by around 1.8 - 4
million hectares per year before 2008.
p22
Deininger and others (2011) stated that the 2009 demands [both national and international via
land acquisitions] for land in Africa equates to more than the total land development on the
continent over the previous 20 years. It should be noted, however, that not all land deals have
been converted to farmland. As for the motivation for these investments, a main driving force is
the aim of countries to enhance their food security because it is not economically or otherwise
viable to sufficiently boost agricultural production at home. In this case, investing in and exploiting
productive land abroad is a way of hedging against food shortages.
p27
The five oceans and the three largest seas cover approximately 71% of the Earth and have long
faced threats to their long-term integrity due to human activities. Growing evidence e.g., from
Munday and others (2010) and Rogers and Laffoley (2011), indicates that these threats are
increasing in number and severity. Some changes have reached tipping points that could have
serious and farreaching social, economic and environmental consequences. This is exemplified by
the sobering estimate by FAO (2010) that 85% of marine fisheries in 2008 were either fully
exploited, over exploited or depleted.
p29
The world’s coastal ecosystems are coming under increasing pressure from human activities.
Among these pressures are: growing coastal development; expansion of capture fisheries and fish
farming; increased pollution caused by agricultural and industrial activities (including oil
exploration and production); and rising demands on coastal resources from global markets and
urban areas.
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p41
The growth in the manufacturing of high-tech and green energy products has had some
unexpected consequences. New goods, such as hybrid cars, rechargeable batteries, wind turbines,
mobile phones and plasma televisions, have greatly increased the demand for some strategic
minerals, including rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium, lithium, neodymium, indium
and gallium. Global demands for rare earth elements have been reported by the US Congressional
Research Service (2010) to be increasing, with current demand (134,000 tons per year) exceeding
global production (124,000 tons per year). Global demand is projected to be in excess of 200,000
tons per year by 2014. Another consequence is that the disposal of hazardous chemicals and
materials from these manufactured products is creating new waste management problems.
The Royal Society
People and the planet
April 2012
https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/projects/people-planet/2012-0425-PeoplePlanet.pdf
p4 foreword
Rapid and widespread changes in the world’s human population, coupled with unprecedented
levels of consumption present profound challenges to human health and wellbeing, and the
natural environment. The combination of these factors is likely to have far reaching and longlasting consequences for our finite planet and will impact on future generations as well as our
own.
p8
Third ["pressing challenge" identified by the Royal Society] , global population growth needs to be
slowed and stabilised, but this should by no means be coercive. A large unmet need for
contraception remains in both developing and developed countries. Voluntary family planning is a
key part of continuing the downward trajectory in fertility rates, which brings benefits to the
individual wellbeing of men and women around the world.
p11
The Royal Society perceives two critical issues that must be addressed quickly in order to establish
a sustainable way of life for all people and avoid undermining the wellbeing of future
generations. The first is the continuing expansion of the human population.
p13
Yet today at least a quarter of a billion women have no access to modern contraceptives, and a
great many girls only receive primary school education. Gaining access to modern contraceptives
and improved education have both been shown to help women choose the number of children
they have. Improved access to voluntary family planning can help make every birth a wanted
birth and eventually stabilise global population
p13
The UN population projections for the rest of the 21st century vary widely between 6.2 billion and
15.8 billion in 2100 (UN 2010). Demographic projections are not predictions and demography is
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not destiny. History has shown population growth can slow down without coercion. However,
timing is of the essence. The sooner high fertility rates decline the sooner populations will peak.
p15
At a time when so many people remain impoverished and natural resources are becoming
increasingly scarce, continued population growth is cause for concern.
p15
Population matters because relative rates of increase, differences in age structure, and migration
influence inequality between countries. Economic and social inequalities within countries
influence fertility and mortality rates with impacts on population size and structure and therefore
the society, economy and environment. Furthermore, population matters because population
numbers can sometimes overwhelm the capacity of the environment to support people’s needs.
p37
The Least Developed Countries have the highest population growth rates in the world and are the
least able to meet the needs of growing numbers of people (UN 2011). Countries in the very early
stages of the transition typically have relatively high but declining mortality at all life stages,
increasing life expectancy, high but declining fertility and rapid population growth. Family sizes
may be large, there is likely to be a high youth dependency ratio, and gender and economic
inequality may be high. Early marriage, polygamy and low status of women may also be present.
Keeping up with the pace of population growth is a challenge in these countries, most of which
lack the resources to meet demand for infrastructure, basic health and education services, and
job opportunities.
p43
The types of opportunities presented to a population in the fourth stage of the demographic
transition have been less well considered. For example, a declining population can reduce
pressure on natural resources. Population decline does not necessarily translate into a
comparable decline in the size of the labour force because of the potential for increased labour
force participation among women (eg in countries where it is currently low relative to men such
as Japan and Italy), increased retirement age, and increases in net immigration which tends to
select people of working age. It is also possible that ageing could lead to an increase in total
spending rather than necessarily economic dependency,
p60
Combined increases in world population and per capita food demand could result in a rise in total
demand for food of 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050 (FAO 2006).
p60
The sustainable development debate has, over recent years, been typified by those who argue
that population growth is the source of current unsustainable trends, and those who believe that
consumption is the primary culprit. This artificial distinction is unhelpful as it can lead to argument
over whether policy should focus on reducing population growth or on improving the
sustainability of consumption, while both are clearly important.
p60
The relationship between population and consumption is not simple. Every member of society
must consume a minimum amount of goods and services to survive. Each additional person added
to the population will necessarily result in an increase in total or aggregate consumption.
p63
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Functioning ecosystems support life on Earth, and human populations, like those of other species,
cannot continue to grow indefinitely. On a planet with finite resources there are limits to growth.
p65
Human population growth influences long-term patterns of land use, which is a major force
behind environmental changes (Liu et al. 200)5. (…) At least 25% of the global land area is now
devoted to some form of cultivation (as croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestock
production or freshwater aquaculture). Areas that have been long-settled including grasslands,
croplands, rangelands and some woodlands are now largely transformed by people, and their
original ecological communities altered or sometimes shifted outside their natural range.
p72
The four markedly different approaches to analysing the Earth’s environmental limits show that
land use change and management have been extensively used to meet many of the immediate
material needs of growing populations. This has resulted in substantial transformations of the
land surface and some seas, especially in recent times, and this has fundamentally altered many
Earth system processes. It is not yet certain whether humanity is approaching limits to the Earth’s
productivity, but humans have already altered some Earth system processes (such as climate
regulation and nitrogen cycles) with known impacts. Other Earth system processes have been
radically altered with almost certainly deleterious consequences that are poorly understood (eg
biodiversity loss, ocean acidification), while others may have imminent consequences (eg
freshwater availability, fisheries).
p82
On a finite planet there are environmental constraints on human population growth and material
and energy consumption. Some limits may already have been reached, and fundamental human
needs for food, energy and water are at risk. (…) The combined effects of market forces and new
technologies are not able to overcome planetary boundaries on the scale necessary to avoid
unsustainable pressure on the planet and much human suffering.
p83
Current trends in global population and consumption, and concomitant changes in the
environment, are unsustainable.
p83
… the most immediate way to reduce the impact that human activity is having on the planet is to
reduce material consumption by those that are consuming more than necessary, whilst assisting
the vast number of people who currently do not have access to enough material resources. (…) In
the medium term it is imperative to stabilise populations, since otherwise the gains from material
cutbacks will be overrun. Many countries are already on course to do so, but some are in a cycle
of high fertility, overloaded services and environmental degradation from which escape is
difficult. Despite the long term effect on impact, action is urgent.
p 83
Because of population momentum, numbers continue to rise for decades after fertility falls;
furthermore, the sooner fertility falls the sooner people will come out of poverty. Beyond 2050 it is
difficult to avoid the conclusion that a gradual and equitable decline in numbers will serve
humanity best, alleviating pressure on resources and increasing personal opportunities in future
generations.
p92
Rapid population growth, wars, civil strife, natural disasters, climate related ecological changes
and environmental degradation have adversely affected millions of people by stopping them
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being able to meet their dietary needs. Although food assistance may be provided to ease their
plight, it is not a long term solution to the underlying causes of food insecurity.
p98
At present there are no well charted ways for 10 billion people to achieve lifestyles like those
enjoyed in the Most Developed Countries, because the only known way forward is economic
growth, and that will come into collision with the finite earth.
p102
Many of the complex problems that face the world in the coming decades will be ameliorated by
slowing rapid population growth in the Least Developed Countries and averting unintended
pregnancies everywhere, including the More Developed Countries. In the long term a stabilised
population is an essential prerequisite for individuals to flourish, but this is by no means a
coercive prescription.
United Nations System Task Team on the Post-2015 Development Agenda
Realizing the future we want for all: Report to the Secretary-General
June 2012
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/untaskteam_undf/untt_report.pdf
p12
In spite of decreasing poverty rates in sub-Saharan Africa, the absolute number of poor people
increased in the region.
P13
Over the past quarter century, world population increased by two billion. Currently, about 78
million people are added to the world’s population every year. This means that, by 2050, the
global economy would need to be able to provide a decent living for more than 9 billion people, of
whom 85 per cent will be living in what are now developing countries. Africa will account for about
half of the absolute increase in population and be home to nearly one quarter of the world
population by 2050.
p14
Inequalities in access to sufficient and nutritious food, education and basic social and health
services, including reproductive health services, are key determinants of both higher mortality and
fertility rates among the poor and in low-income regions. High levels of unintended pregnancy
persist in many countries, particularly among the poor and young adults.
p14
The growing number of youth with limited employment opportunities poses an enormous
challenge, potentially undermining social cohesion.
p15
By 2050, 70 per cent of the world’s population is projected to live in urban areas. Rapid urban
growth is mainly occurring in countries least able to cope with the demand for decent jobs,
adequate housing and urban basic services. Close to one billion people, or 33 per cent of the urban
population in developing countries, live in slums, in inequitable and often life-threatening
conditions. If left unaddressed, these trends may become sources of social and political instability.
p15
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Larger urban populations will also influence food and land-use patterns, with potentially vast
implications. Rising incomes and continued population growth have not only raised food demand,
but also altered dietary patterns. This is reflected in increased per capita meat consumption, which
has risen by about a quarter over the past decade. While meat is an important source of protein,
under existing production conditions, higher demand can lead to land use shifts and further
deforestation, higher energy use, rising food prices and regional food shortages.
p15
Global agricultural production will have to almost double in developing countries to feed a
growing population by 2050. Although global food production has outpaced population growth, it
has failed to meet potential demand, and unequal distribution still left nearly one billion people
undernourished worldwide in 2010.
p16
Growth of population, income, energy and resource use, waste and pollution have come at the
cost of unprecedented use of natural resources and environmental degradation. Almost half of the
Earth’s forests are gone, groundwater sources and fish stocks are being rapidly depleted, and land
degradation and ocean acidification are worsening. Biodiversity has been enormously reduced,
and carbon dioxide emissions increased by 40 per cent between 1990 and 2008, to reach
dangerous climate destabilizing concentrations of close to 30 billion tonnes a year.
p16
Increased levels of human activity are threatening to surpass the Earth’s carrying capacity as a
source and sink. (…) To limit the increase in global average temperature to 2°C above preindustrial levels ), greenhouse gas emissions should have been reduced to less than 44 gigatonnes
CO2 equivalent by 2020, well below present levels. The added challenge is that reductions in GHG
[greenhouse gases] emissions have to be achieved while enhancing access to energy. An estimated
1.4 billion people lack access to modern energy services…
The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House)
Bernice Lee, Felix Preston, Jaakko Kooroshy, Rob Bailey and Glada Lahn
Resources Futures
A Chatham House Report
December 2012
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Energy,%20Environment
%20and%20Development/1212r_resourcesfutures.pdf
p8
Competition for critical resources, already acute in many parts of the world, is likely to escalate,
increasing the risk of a downward spiral towards more competition and less trust. These pressures
will also continue to augment existing political and social stresses.
p12
Driven by expanding populations and rising incomes, significant rates of growth [in consumption]
are expected to 2040 across critical resources such as fossil fuels, steel, food and water.
p58
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Structural pressures from population growth, water scarcity, environmental degradation and
climate change often intersect geographically in poor countries with fragile states and weak
institutions. These multiple stress factors render countries vulnerable to different types of shocks
such as environmental disasters, political unrest, violent conflict or economic crises – increasing
both local and systemic risks.
p68
By 2050, three-quarters of the world’s population could face acute freshwater scarcity. The
situation is particularly challenging in the Middle East where 5% of the world’s population are
sharing less than 1% of the world’s renewable freshwater resources. Water availability in the
region is projected to be halved by 2050, with the potential for acute shortages as early as 2025.
p111
Domestic politics in oil-producing states suggest that OPEC will work to support a rising
international oil price. High population growth and generous social spending increases in the wake
of the Arab uprisings are squeezing budgets in key oil exporters…
p153
Recognizing their water and climatic constraints in the wake of fast-growing populations, Gulf
countries are attempting to ensure food security through large-scale land deals in Africa and
Southeast Asia. Other similar examples include Chinese engagement in extractive industries in
Africa and Australia, or in agriculture in Latin America.
p154
As a region, Africa is a significant net exporter of resources, largely thanks to a handful of oil
producers and the fact that domestic resource consumption is extremely low – itself a symptom of
underdevelopment. Despite enviable resource endowments, Africa’s path to development is far
from assured. Many countries remain highly vulnerable to volatility in international energy and
food prices. Rapid population growth, stagnant food production and climate change pose huge
threats.
National Intelligence Council [of the USA]
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
December 2012
http://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030-november2012.pdf
NOTE - This report aims at " providing a framework for thinking about the future " and to "encourage
decisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan for the long term so that
negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding. "
p iv
Demand for food, water, and energy will grow by approximately 35, 40, and 50 percent
respectively owing to an increase in the global population and the consumption patterns of an
expanding middle class. Climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of these critical
resources.
p iv
Owing to rapid urbanization in the developing world, the volume of urban construction for
housing, office space, and transport services over the next 40 years could roughly equal the entire
volume of such construction to date in world history.
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pv
Demand for food is expected to rise at least 35 percent by 2030 while demand for water is
expected to rise by 40 percent. Nearly half of the world’s population will live in areas experiencing
severe water stress. Fragile states in Africa and the Middle East are most at risk of experiencing
food and water shortages, but China and India are also vulnerable.
p viii
Insufficient natural resources— such as water and arable land—in many of the same countries that
will have disproportionate levels of young men increase the risks of intrastate conflict breaking
out, particularly in Sub-Saharan African and South and East Asian countries, including China and
India.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2014
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
p17
Due to sea level rise projected throughout the 21st century and beyond, coastal systems and lowlying areas will increasingly experience adverse impacts such as submergence, coastal flooding,
and coastal erosion (very high confidence). The population and assets projected to be exposed to
coastal risks as well as human pressures on coastal ecosystems will increase significantly in the
coming decades due to population growth, economic development, and urbanization (high
confidence).
p19
For most economic sectors, the impacts [over the next few decades and in the second half of the
21st century and beyond] of drivers such as changes in population, age structure, income,
technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, and governance are projected to be large relative
to the impacts of climate change (medium evidence, high agreement).
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
Summary for Policymakers, In: Climate Change 2014, Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2014
http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf
While its main concern is to assess and document climate change and its impact, the IPCC does
occasionally hint at the main ultimate drivers, for example:
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References to population in selected reports
p8
Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases
in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The contribution of population growth between 2000
and 2010 remained roughly identical to the previous three decades, while the contribution of
economic growth has risen sharply (high confidence). Between 2000 and 2010, both drivers
outpaced emission reductions from improvements in energy intensity (…). Increased use of coal
relative to other energy sources has reversed the longstanding trend of gradual decarbonisation of
the world’s energy supply.
p9
Without additional efforts to reduce GHG [greenhouse gases] emissions beyond those in place
today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and economic
activities. Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface
temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C compared to pre-industrial levels
p26
The next two decades present a window of opportunity for mitigation in urban areas, as a large
portion of the world’s urban areas will be developed during this period (limited evidence, high
agreement). Accounting for trends in declining population densities, and continued economic and
population growth, urban land cover is projected to expand by 56 – 310 % between 2000 and 2030.
USA Department of Defense
Quadrennial Defense Review 2014
2014
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_Quadrennial_Defense_Review.pdf
In the context of preparedness against global threats, the USA Dept. of Defense acknowledges the
fight for resources as a large contributor to unrest, for example:
p5
Friction points also endure in the Middle East. Religious differences, particularly a widening SunniShi’a divide, are among the sources of trans-national division in the region. Competition for
resources, including energy and water, will worsen tensions in the coming years and could escalate
regional confrontations into broader conflicts – particularly in fragile states.
p8
Climate change poses another significant challenge for the United States and the world at large.
As greenhouse gas emissions increase, sea levels are rising, average global temperatures are
increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating. These changes, coupled with other
global dynamics, including growing, urbanizing, more affluent populations, and substantial
economic growth in India, China, Brazil, and other nations, will devastate homes, land, and
infrastructure. Climate change may exacerbate water scarcity and lead to sharp increases in food
costs.
World Economic Forum
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Global Risks 2014, Ninth Edition
2014
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2014.pdf
p14
Environmental risks also feature prominently in this year’s list, appearing as three of the top 10
global risks of greatest concern. Water crises, for instance, rank as the third highest concern.
(…)This illustrates a continued and growing awareness of the global water crisis as a result of
mismanagement and increased competition for already scarce water resources from economic
activity and population growth. Coupled with extreme weather events such as floods and
droughts, which appears sixth on the list, the potential impacts are real and happening today.
p15
In the future, geopolitical tensions over access to strategic water resources could become more
systemically impactful, and water shortage coupled with poverty and societal instability could
weaken intra-state cohesion. Because of the systemic importance of water for global economic
activity, any failings in its planning, management and use in one country can ripple across the
world. That management is becoming increasingly complex and difficult as populations expand
and people grow wealthier, demanding more freshwater to supply cities and factories and
consuming more foods, such as dairy and meat, that need more water to produce. Water is equally
key for energy production. While the world population grew fourfold in the 20th century,
freshwater withdrawals grew nine times.
p22
Communicable diseases can spread more quickly in densely-populated areas, increasing the risk of
global pandemics. For example, if a new strain of avian flu were to spread globally through the air
travel network that connects the world’s major cities, 3 billion people could potentially be exposed
to the virus within a short span of time.
p23
Demographic trends have been flagged [as risks and trends to watch], including the risk of being
unable to deal with rapid population growth and the growing burden of an ageing population –
which could also be a source of great opportunities for society and business if managed effectively.
There is much talk about the burden of ageing populations, but providing resources and
employment opportunities for increasing numbers of young people is a serious problem seldom
discussed in the context of population growth; examples, from the WEF:
p34
Africa’s youth population, for example, currently totals 200 million and is projected to double by
2045. Sufficient economic opportunities will need to be generated to absorb this growing and
increasingly better-educated labour force.
p33
Young people entering the job market today are at high risk of unemployment or precarious job
situations. Youth unemployment rates have soared since the financial crisis. The situation is
especially dire in the Middle East and advanced economies, notably some European countries such
as Spain and Greece. Moreover, employment statistics do not reveal that in many developing
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regions – where 90% of the global youth population lives – a majority of young people are
employed only informally. In advanced economies, jobs with long-term prospects – the normal
situation for previous generations – have become scarce. Young people are vulnerable to being
entrapped by either long-term unemployment or the inability to move on from low-quality and
temporary or part-time employment
p34
In advanced economies, the challenge of finding stable and remunerative employment comes on
top of the burden of fulfilling the social contract with an ageing society. Today’s youth need to
support a growing population of the elderly and save for their own old age. (…) Emerging markets
may not have a top-heavy age structure yet, but soon will. While it took 115 years for France’s
population of over-65s to double from 7% to 14%, it will take China, South Korea and Singapore
only about 20 years.
p37
About 300 million young people – over 25% of the world’s youth population – have no productive
work, according to World Bank estimates. An unprecedented demographic “youth bulge” is
bringing more than 120 million new young people on to the job market each year, mostly in the
developing world. Youth unemployment on this scale is not only a waste of human capital and
potential but also threatens to halt economic progress, creating a vicious cycle of less economic
activity and more unemployment. It also raises the risk of social unrest by creating a disaffected
“lost generation” who are vulnerable to being sucked into criminal or extremist movements.
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