Download Weather, climate, locust outbreaks and their migration

Weather, Climate, Locust Outbreaks
and Their Migration
– RRSSC Experience
J. R. SHARMA
HEAD
RRSSC, ISRO
JODHPUR ( INDIA)
Indian Locust Control Experience
History of locust control in India
(RS perspective)
RS based NDVI started in 1987 using NOAA AVHRR
data for the scheduled desert area of India at 15 days
interval.
1988 onwards using NOAA and IRS LISS I data. LISS I
data at monthly interval for detailed status in high
frequency breeding areas.
Installation of 24 rain gauge stations for rainfall data
and to estimate soil moisture at different locations.
1995 onwards using IRS WiFS data for the entire
locust season to map high dynamic desert vegetation.
Some efforts are made to map soil moisture under
undulated desert terrain using ERS/SAR data in 199293.
Scheduled desert of India
Major invasion: 1973, 1978, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993, 1998
Total area = 2,05,785 sq km
Rajasthan = 1,79,250 sq km (87.10 %)
Gujarat = 23,078 sq km (11.21 % )
Haryana = 3457 sq km (01.68 % )
Location of locust outposts and rain gauge
stations
Ramgarh, Mohangarh,
Sam, Jaisalmer, Gadra
Road, Balotra, Chotan,
Pugal, Lunkaransar,
Sardarsahar, Churu,
Kolayat, Nokha, Sikar,
Nokh, Phalodi, Pokran,
Shergarh, Nagaur,
Didwana, Jalore, Sanchore,
Tharad, Bhuj.
Total number of outposts = 24
Ground data availability
(From Locust Warning Organisation, MOA, GOI)
Locust information
1. Adult population
2. Location of availability
3. Male and female population
4. Body color
5. Eye stripes
6. Red mites
7. Week wise maximum
population of desert locust
8. Migratory locust population
Rainfall data
1. Daily rainfall data
Feeding preference
1. Ephemeral vegetation
(Sewan grass, Ghati, Bui…)
Moulting preference
1. Ker plant is an excellent
medium for moulting.
IRS - 1C WiFS
15.10.2000
IRS - 1C WiFS
14.11.2000
21%
1%
9%
41%
0%
1%
34%
25%
40%
Dynamics of Vegetation Density
Legend
50
% Area
Biomass monitoring
28%
40
Maximum
30
Medium
20
OCT. 15
NOV. 14
10
Moderate
Less/Very.Less
0
Max
Med
Mod
Less
Vegetation Density
Bar
Barren / Dry
Possible direction of migration of locusts
(Wind direction overlaid on NDVI)
Legend
Max. Veg.
Med. Veg.
Mod. Veg.
Less Veg.
Barren / Dry
Cloud
Wind
direction
IRS 1C- WiFS
DOP: 03.9.2000
Monitoring of vegetation density
Sensor: WiFS
DOP: 03.09.2000
Sensor: WiFS
DOP: 07.01.2000
(Western Rajasthan)
Maximum Vegetation
Medium Vegetation
Less/V.Less Vegetation
Barren / Dry
Cloud
Sensor: WiFS
DOP: 15.10.2000
Sensor: WiFS
DOP: 14.11.2000
Moderate Vegetation
How the risk zone map is used
The gridded risk zone maps are analyzed for only very
high, high and medium risk zones.
Name of the places (outposts) falling in the above three
classes are recorded.
Surveillance schedule (2/3 types) based upon the output.
On foot
( 5 km circle )
On vehicle (75 km circle)
Long tour ( 5 -10 days )
Search for locusts, if the population is high control
measures are taken by respective zone as per wireless
message.
Control of hoppers for maximizing the efficiency.
Idea about egg laying sites from the abundance of adult
population in the recent rainfall areas.
GIS based locust risk zone mapping
Village & District
boundary
Vegetation density
(From satellite data)
Soil moisture
(From Rainfall and WHC)
MU-1
Once in 11 days
+
Risk zone map
(District wise)
Soil salinity
(From sat. data & soil map)
Soil texture
MU-2
(Derived from soil map)
Very high
High
Medium
Low
Very low
Semi-permanent
Analysis of air
temp., humidity,
cloudiness and
rainfall for optimal
time of upsurge
Vegetation species
(From ecology map)
Locust forecasting
(Maps, locations, reports to the Anti-locust organisation)
For new
breeding
grounds
Cloud tracking
Various stages of life cycle
(Schistocerca gregaria)
Immature adults: Pink, longer
flights, maximum feeding
45 days
Hoppers: Non
flying but
migrate by
marching
Moulting (4th instar)
Moulting (3rd instar)
Moulting (2nd instar)
38 days
Moulting (5th instar)
Mature adults: yellow
color, copulate and
lay eggs
Moulting (1st instar)
Life cycle
127 days
14 days
Egg laying
30 days
Egg laying
Probing by adult female for
optimum
Soil texture
Soil temperature
5-7 cm
Soil hardness
Soil moisture
Soil salinity
Nearby bushy vegetation
Presence of other locusts
Oviposition
Egg sac/pod
Egg incubation
(~ 14 days)
Laying takes place in batches.
5 cm long egg pod below 5-7 cm
soil surface.
No. of eggs ranges from <80/pod
(gregarious) to 95-158/pod
(solitarious).
Egg laying 3 times in life time at an
interval of 6-11 days.
Egg incubation period (days)
Initially eggs are yellow but turns to
brown in contact to soil.
Thermal
growth curve
Absorbs water for 1st five days for
complete development.
The extent of breeding ground can
be more than a mile.
pods (deg C)
Mean Egg
soil temperature
Egg development is a function of soil
temperature. Thermal degree days
required is 309.
Hopper development
(~ 38 days)
Color changes
Females are larger than males
After 1st day start feeding
Exo-skeleton becomes hard
Migration by marching only
limited to 1 or 2 km or less
Hopper development as a
function of air temperature
Mean daily air temperature oC
Mean daily air temperature oC
Meteorology and flight condition
Temperature
Lower threshold for locomotion is > 15oC.
Internal temperature of 19-21 oC for flight muscle activation.
Flight activity decreases with high temperature (>42oC). For sustained flight
optimum temperature is 35oC.
Light
Flight inhibition with decreasing light.
Relative humidity
Temporary settling when saturation deficit is high.
Synoptic meteorology
Low level convergence and divergence causes concentration and dispersal
of locust respectively.
Soil properties and locust
 Mature females probe with the ovipositor for optimum soil
temperature, hardness, moisture and salinity before egg
laying.
 Loose sandy/silty soil with sub-surface moisture is favourable
for oviposition, laying of egg pod and egg development.
 Rate of egg development is a function of soil temperature at
pod depth, e.g at 25oC development takes 26 days but at 37oC
only 12 days.
Environmental factors and locust
 Ambient air temperature above 15oC is a must for egg
development.
 Incubation period is a function of air temperature e.g. at 14 oC
it is more than 60 days but only 15 days in 32oC.
 Hopper development is a function of air temperature e.g at
24oC it is 50 days but at 32oC it is only 25 days.
Locust Control Experience in Kazakhstan
Geo-LIMIS
(SDSS for Locust Impact Minimization)
SDSS Main Menu
Sponsored by CIDA
Geographically encoded Locust Impact Minimization Information
System
Regional Remote Sensing Service Centre
Department of Space, Government of India
CAZRI Campus, Jodhpur (Rajasthan)
Objectives
1. Analysis of various bio-physical parameters in spatial
domain to identify high frequency locust breeding areas
and habitat suitability.
2. Interface for locust sighting (points) input along with
attributes for generation of historical database.
3 Detailed locust data analysis in relation to bio-physical
parameters.
4. Query interface to generate habitat maps for locusts based
on ground intelligence.
5. Analysis of daily weather data over 24 hours period for
simulating breeding suitability, locust physiological
development, and flight dynamics.
Geo-LIMIS provides solution for….
Locust Habitat Suitability as risk zones (High,
Medium…) in desired scale for field surveyor.
Suitability of prevailing weather for locust
breeding, development of egg and hopper and
flight / mass upsurge.
Data requirement for Geo-LIMIS
Satellite data from optical sensors (for landuse,
vegetation density, soil texture….)
Satellite data from Microwave satellites (for soil
moisture)
Cultural features (administrative boundary, road,
settlement location…..)
Daily weather data (Temperature, humidity,
cloudiness, wind velocity and direction, rainfall…..)
Locust physiology and response behavior with
weather elements (for simulation)
Historical locust information (place, type, density,….)
A modular approach ……
Landform
Soil-landscape
module
Soil texture
Grouping of
favourable land types
Once in 7
years
Soil salinity
Landuse/landcover
Bio-physical
module
Vegetation density
Grouping of ideal
landuse & vegetation
density
Once in 1015 days
Soil moisture
Air temperature
Humidity
Climate
module
Sunshine hours
Wind velocity
Wind direction
Suitability for
breeding and
development
Suitability for locust
migration / upsurge
Daily basis
Migration /
Upsurge
Habitat suitability
Life Cycle Builder
(Simulation of locust phenomena)
Weather data need
Daily ambient weather data decides the growth rate of immature
locusts and flight is triggered by the atmospheric condition
Temperature (min, max): For egg & hopper
development, mortality, wing muscle activation for
flight, roosting…
Humidity / Atmospheric water vapour: To maintain +ve
water balance during flight, hopper development.
Sunshine hours / net radiation: For flying and
migration / mass upsurge.
Wind direction and velocity: For direction of flight and
passive movement.
How weather data is used
Growth simulation
Egg development
Hopper development
Flight simulation
Possibility of flying and its direction
Mortality
Function of temperature, relative humidity, moisture
availability and predators
Data source (Russian Hydromet server)
Geographical location of the
Hydromet observation
stations in Kazakhstan.
Plotted from the coordinates
and the attributes are attached
Daily weather data at 3 hourly interval
(Downloaded from the internet)
The hydeomet data is customized as per the requirement of the
SDSS
Grouping of rainfall based on the volume
Showers (S)
Rain (R)
Light rain (LR)
Light showers (LS)
Intermittent rain (IR)
Intermittent light rain (ILR)
Thunderstorm rain (TR)
Thunderstorm (T)
Drizzle (D)
Intermittent light drizzle (ILD)
Intermittent heavy drizzle (IHD)
Light drizzle (LD)
Light freezing drizzle (LFD)
Intermittent freezing drizzle (IFD)
Freezing drizzle (FD)
Mist (M)
The volume of rainfall by each rain type is
ordered as follows:
S > TR > R > IR > LS > ILR > LR > IHD > ILD
> D > LD > FD> LFD>IFD>M>T
This helps in predicting favourable soil moisture
over sustained duration.
Interface for creation of historic locust
geo-spatial data base
Facilitates generation of locust sighting map
based on the field observation.
Facilitates input of locust related information
viz. swarm type, species, location, spread,
color, egg/hopper/adult density and other
qualitative information.
Provides a user friendly interface which
enables both graphical or keyboard entry.
Locust sighting data interface (opening menu)
Input for creating historical locust data
Locust sighting data interface (active menu)
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Attribute of the
selected point
Spatial display of historical locust data
Egg density display
Ratio of egg, hopper and
adult display
Life Cycle Builder (opening menu)
Addition / Deletion of weather stations
Selection of station one at a time
Query interface
Logic used for breeding
simulation
The rationale is soil should be moist enough for oviposition and
breeding. Hence the rain volume and frequency and maximum
duration of two rainfall incidence are considered.
Very High
RAINTYPE (S/IR/R/TR, TIMES>=3, DIFFERENCE<=5)
High
RAINTYPE (S/R/LR/TR, TIMES>=3, DIFFERENCE>5)
Medium
RAINTYPE (LS/LR/ILR, TIMES>2, DIFFERENCE<7) OR
RAINTYPE (S/IR/TR/R, TIMES<3, DIFFERENCE>=7)
Low
RAINTYPE (T/D/LD/LFD/IFD/FD/M/IHD/ILD, TIMES>=0,
DIFFERENCE <21) OR
RAINTYPE (LR/LS/ILR, TIMES <=2, DIFFERENCE>=7
OR O) OR
RAINTYPE (NULL)
Logic used for simulation of flight
suitability / mass upsurge
The rationale is minimum temperature for flight muscle activation,
optimum temperature regime, cloudiness, positive water balance
during flight, threshold wind velocity.
Very High
AVTEMP >=25 to <=35, AVCLD >=0 to <=3, AVHUM
>=50, AVWV >=14 to <=16
High
AVTEMP >=19 to <=25, AVCLD >=0 to <=7, AVHUM
>=50, AVWV >=10 to <14
Medium
AVTEMP >=19 to <=25, AVCLD >7, AVHUM >=50,
AVWV >=7 to <10
Low
AVTEMP <=19 to >=42, or AVCLD <7, AVWV >=7 to <10
Simulation of egg / hopper development
Y = - 0.0167 X2 + 1.24 X – 13.658
(where Y = % incubation/per day, X = max. air
temperature)
Y = 0.2262 X – 3.2982
(where Y = % hopper development/per day, X =
max. air temperature)
LCB report generation
(Based upon the analysis of daily weather data for last 3 weeks and growth model)
Breeding suitability is low
Flight suitability is low in
south direction
Egg development is
complete
Simulated hopper
development is 60.87%
• To explore and analyze the database elements efficiently.
• Enabling the shell to understand the spatial and non-spatial layers.
• Browsing, Updating and extending the spatial database dictionary through
user friendly GUI.
CHECKS FOR SPATIAL AND NON-SPATIAL LAYERS
• Names of the Spatial Layers
• Existence of layers and Type of layer
• Existence of Feature Attribute Table, .LUT and .DAT table
•
•
•
•
Existence of Link code in feature attribute table, .LUT and .DAT table
Link code type, width and each entry of link code.
Projection information
Report generation indicating errors encountered during validation
Task performed during Integration:
i. Symbol filling.
ii. Generation of intermediate grids.
iii. Creation of projection files
iv. Theissen polygon generation
Database validation
Spatial database dictionary
Database integration