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P2JW291000-4-C00100-1--------XA CMYK Composite CL,CN,CX,DL,DM,DX,EE,EU,FL,HO,KC,MW,NC,NE,NY,PH,PN,RM,SA,SC,SL,SW,TU,WB,WE BG,BM,BP,CC,CH,CK,CP,CT,DN,DR,FW,HL,HW,KS,LA,LG,LK,MI,ML,NM,PA,PI,PV,TD,TS,UT,WO Old man, look at my life: At 68, Neil Young has a new album—and can see in color A literary genius—but not above buying off journalists. Two books on Lincoln C11 BOOKS | C6 CULTURE | SCIENCE © 2014 Dow Jones & Company. All Rights Reserved. | COMMERCE | HUMOR | POLITICS | LANGUAGE | THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. **** TECHNOLOGY | ART | IDEAS Saturday/Sunday, October 18 - 19, 2014 | C1 THE LAST EPIDEMIC Just a few generations ago, progress against infectious disease convinced Americans that modern medicine had won the battle against microbes. Why is the public so skeptical today? I BY DAVID OSHINSKY MAN VS. MICROBE Top: The measles virus; a tuberculosis vaccine; travelers in Hong Kong with masks to protect against SARS in 2003. Middle: Jonas Salk, creator of the polio vaccine, in 1967; a girl gets a Salk antipolio shot in 1955. Bottom: The rabies virus; a baby being tested for Ebola in Liberia this month; the smallpox virus. n the winter of 1947, an American tourist arrived in New York City on a bus from Mexico, feeling feverish and stiff. He checked into a hotel and did some sightseeing before his condition worsened. A red rash now covered his body. He went to a local hospital, which monitored his vital signs and transferred him to a contagious disease facility, where he was incorrectly diagnosed with a mild drug reaction. He died a few days later of smallpox. i By this point, the man had infected at least a dozen New Yorkers, one of whom died. Taking no chances, city officials began a massive but voluntary vaccination campaign against a disease that had killed more people than any other in history. Within weeks, several million New Yorkers took the vaccine. Though health experts still disagree about the danger posed by these isolated smallpox cases, one point remains clear: There was precious little panic. Outside schools, fire stations and hospitals, the vaccination lines snaked for blocks. People didn’t worry about the vaccine’s safety; they feared that there might not be enough vaccine to go around. Sound familiar? Parts of the 1947 smallpox scare—the sick traveler harboring a deadly disease, the missed hospital diagnosis, the quickly spreading infection—strike a disturbing chord. A key difference between that crisis and our current one with Ebola is, of course, the absence of an effective vaccine—and the fact that Ebola is usually transmitted through close, direct physical contact with the bodily fluids of someone infected. But Americans in the 1940s had a different mind-set as well. Today many Americans doubt that health authorities can handle the crisis. Back then, by contrast, there was a growing confidence in the power of medical research to solve any problem, tame any epidemic, conquer any disease. It was a confidence grounded in the miracle drugs and vaccines beginning to emerge from university and pharmaceutical laboratories, and in the public health apparatus that had served the nation and its troops so well during World War II. It hadn’t always been this way. What is truly remarkable about the march of modern medicine is how slow the progress was in the preceding centuries. Though the vaccine for smallpox was discovered by the British doctor Edward Jenner in the 1790s, it didn’t trigger a revolution in medical thinking. Until well into the 1850s, the onset of disease was still attributed to foul-smelling clouds of decomposed matter known as “miasmas,” and the most common remedy was to purge ill patients of supposed impurities until the body’s equilibrium was restored. It’s hard today to imagine such dangerous foolery passing for mainstream medicine, but let one example suffice. In 1799, a Virginia gentleman suffering from a severe throat infection “procured a bleeder in the neighborhood, who took from his arm, in the night, twelve or fourteen ounces of blood.” Feeling no better, the man sent for his doctors. The first to arrive prescribed an enema and then “two copious bleedings.” Seeing no improvement, a second doctor ordered “ten grains of calomel [a devastating mercury-based drug] succeeded by repeated doses of emetic tartar,” causing a massive discharge “from the bowels.” Then the real bleeding began. Thirtytwo ounces were drawn by lancet, while blisters were applied “to the extremities.” (A person giving eight ounces of blood today must wait two months before donating again.) The man finally told his doctors to stop. “Let me go quietly,” George Washington pleaded, and he did. Please turn to the next page From penicillin to the polio vaccine, it was a golden age of medicine. Prof. Oshinsky is a member of the history department at New York University and director of the Division of Medical Humanities at the NYU School of Medicine. His book, “Polio: An American Story,” won the 2006 Pulitzer Prize for history. Getty Images (7); Heidi Vogt/The Wall Street Journal (Ebola) INSIDE MIND & MATTER Do marriages that begin online falter more than the old kind? Robert M. Sapolsky’s answer. C2 MOVING TARGETS Joe Queenan wonders whatever happened to the golden age of conspiracy theories. C11 ESSAY The roots of today’s unrest in Hong Kong lie in promises about voting made decades ago. C3 BOOKS Obstacle course racing throws in extra challenges—like a contest stirring rotten meat. C8 ESSAY A classics series gets a digital makeover (and new life for its R-rated material). C3 Newsmakers/Getty Images (Lincoln); Associated Press (Essay); Reuters (Books); Print Collector/Getty Images (Essay) P2JW291000-4-C00100-1--------XA Composite MAGENTA BLACK CYAN YELLOW