Download Vulnerability Assessment towards heat waves in

Resilient Cities 2011
Session G 4 Tackling the effects of climate change:
Urban heat islands
Vulnerability Assessment towards
heat waves in urban areas:
City of Cologne case study
Dr. Torsten Welle
Associate Academic Officer
Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management and
Adaptive Planning Section, UNU-EHS
Definitions of vulnerability
“... a human condition or process resulting from physical, social,
economic, and environmental factors which determine the
likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given
hazard“
(UNDP, 2004)
“The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to
cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to
which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive
capacity (IPCC, 2007).“
Concept of vulnerability
The three elements (factors) of vulnerability:
a) Exposure: Elements at risk exposed to a hazard
b) Susceptibility: is the predisposition of society and
ecosystems to suffer harm
c) Coping Capacity: available resources and abilities to face
advers consequences
MOVE – Project
g
First results generic vulnerability framework
Birkmann et al. (2011)
MOVE – Project
Case Study Cologne – background
6
Case Study Cologne – background
‐
Central-western Germany in the state of North Rhine
Westphalia (NRW) along river Rhine
‐
1 million inhabitants (4th largest city in Germany)
‐
Research background: heat waves from 1995 (Chicago)
and 2003 (Europe)
‐
heat waves will become more intense, longer lasting, and
or more frequent in future warmer climates (Luber and
McGeehin (2008), Meehl and Tebaldi (2004)).
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vulnerability assessment for heat waves
Methods and workflow:
• translation of the framework into equation
Vulnerabiliy
Exposure
Lack of
resilience
Susceptibility
2
•selection of adequate indicators (e.g. statistical data)
•GIS/RS (geodata, administrative units, thermal data)
• Normalisation
• Weightening
• Aggregation in a composite indicator vulnerability
assessment
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
04:00
Calculation
of Exposure
• Geodata (RS,
thermal infraded)
9
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
21:00
Calculation
of Exposure
• Geodata (RS,
thermal infrared)
10
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Calculation
of Exposure
• Geodata
(administrative
units)
11
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Calculation
of Exposure
•calculation of
mean
temperature per
city district
12
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Calculation
of Exposure
•calculation of
mean
temperature per
city district
Exposed area,
not exposed
people !
13
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Calculation
of Exposure
•calculation of mean
temperature per
city district
• socio demographic
data
exposed people
14
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Calculation of susceptibility
Composition of indicators:
1. Indicator: agegroups (AG) 0-5 years + AG >65 years
(% of susceptible population/city district)
2. Indicator: unemployment rate/city district [%]
(Proxy: low income)
3. Indicator: foreigner/city district [%]
(Proxy: problems in understanding of warning messages)
4. Indicator: elderly households/city district [%]
Index:
(Indicator 1) x 0,6
+(Indicator 2) x 0,1
+(Indicator 3) x 0,1
+(Indicator 4) x 0,2
1
15
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Calculation of Coping Capacity
g
Assumption: the bigger one HH is the more HH-member
are available and could take care of elderly, invalids and
children
g
Calculation: Different weights of HH-sizes:
CopingCapacity=
(1*5HH+0,8*4HH+0,6*3HH+0,4*2HH+0,2*1HH)
number HH
Lack of Coping Capacity= 1- Coping Capacity
Vulnerability assessment for
heat waves
Vulnerabiliy
Exposure
Lack of
resilience
Susceptibility
2
24/11/2011
www.move-fp7.eu
17
Combination of different data
for gaining knowledge
g
Geodata (e.g. administrative data)
g
RS data (Surface temperature)
g
Socio-economic data (statistical data)
Gained
knowledge
Adaptation
strategies
or risk reduction
measurements
Thank you for your attention!
Contact:
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0208
Fax:
++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu
Research Focus & Projects
Concepts, Assessments, Plans
Urban
Vulnerability & Risk
MOVE (EC)
CC-Adaptation
IPCC (lead author)
for Special Report & AR 5
KIBEX (BBK)
ACRIMAS (EC)
Climate-PAKT (Leibniz Society)
World Risk Index
(Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft)
CLICO (EC)
WISDOM (BMBF)
a) Basic Knowledge (theories & concepts)
b) Orientation Knowledge (indicators, information, new data)
c) Knowledge for Decision Making and capacity building(tools, measures and
strategies)