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Why BCDC is considering amendments to the San Francisco Bay Plan
to address sea level rise
Is sea level rise is really happening or is it just a theory?
Sea level rise from global warming is a fact. Water levels in San Francisco Bay have risen about
seven inches over the past century, and scientists agree that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating.
In April 2009, a San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) report
was released summarizing the latest scientific research on climate change. While exact future
increases in sea level rise are uncertain, scientists believe it is likely that the Bay will rise about 11
to 18 inches by mid-century and may rise 23 to 55 inches by 2100.
Will it have a big impact on the Bay Area?
Yes, sea level rise is a particularly acute problem for the Bay Area. Between 1850 and 1960 about a
third of the Bay (240 square miles) was filled high enough to be above past sea levels, but not
above future sea levels. Also, large portions of the South Bay are below current sea level because
of land subsidence. The BCDC report contained maps showing the low-lying areas around the Bay
that may be vulnerable to sea level rise over the next century.
What is BCDC currently proposing to do?
Along with releasing the staff report, in early 2009 the Commission began the process of amending
its San Francisco Bay Plan to update the 21-year-old sea level rise findings and policies and to add a
new section in the Plan dealing more broadly with climate change and adapting to sea level rise.
What policies does BCDC now use in areas vulnerable to sea level rise?
The policies currently in the San Francisco Bay Plan generally discourage building in shoreline
areas that are vulnerable to current or future flooding (San Francisco Bay Plan, Safety of Fills). The
proposed amendments would modify the exiting policies to encourage development in suitable
low-lying areas and encourage habitat protection in areas with high natural habitat value.
Will the Bay Plan amendments increase BCDC’s regulatory authority?
No. BCDC permits are needed for development in the Bay, salt ponds, managed wetlands and on
land within 100 feet of the Bay. State law would have to be changed to give the Commission
authority over a larger area, and the Commission has not asked that its authority be expanded nor
has its staff proposed this.
Would the proposed climate change policies broaden BCDC jurisdiction and usurp local land
use authority?
No. The proposed policies would be applied by the Commission within its existing jurisdiction,
using its existing regulatory authority, which is quite limited. State law explicitly states that the
policies are advisory only beyond the Commission’s regulatory jurisdiction. The advisory policies
can be used by local governments and others, or ignored.
Will BCDC’s proposed policies conflict with other regional land use policies aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions?
No. In the Bay Area, adapting to future sea level rise is only half the battle in the war against
climate change. The region must also comply with state laws that require a significant reduction in
the greenhouse gas emissions that are changing the world’s climate. In California, many of these
emissions come from vehicles. Therefore, along with the rest of the state, the Bay Area is doing its
best to reduce driving by encouraging the development of more compact, mixed-use communities
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near transit where people can walk, bicycle or use transit. Unfortunately, some of the areas that
are ideal for this type of development are also vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise. As a
result, the Bay Area does not have the luxury of choosing to either cut greenhouse gases or adapt
to sea level rise. The region must do both.
If adopted, would the Bay Plan policies result in a moratorium on development in low-lying
areas?
No. The proposed policies would replace current policies that broadly discourage building in lowlying areas with revised policies that support small projects, continued in-fill development,
redevelopment of closed military bases, remediation of contaminated sites, construction of critical
infrastructure, and adaptive use of low-lying areas planned in a manner that addresses the
dangers of accelerated sea level rise. In areas with high natural habitat value, the proposed
amendments would encourage habitat protection and enhancement. Thus, the proposed
amendments would promote the type of development that is needed to reduce greenhouse gases.
Has BCDC received input on the policies from the public, local governments and other
agencies?
Yes. As part of the process of amending the Bay Plan to address climate change, over the past year
and a half the Commission held a number of public hearings, hosted workshops, solicited
feedback from stakeholders, and advanced its partnerships with other federal, state and regional
agencies and, most importantly, with local governments. At the request of the regulated
community, the Commission added public hearings and extended the public comment period
several months. Throughout this process, BCDC’s staff has revised and refined the proposed
amendments to respond to the excellent ideas advanced by the building industry, the
environmental community, local governments and the general public.
I just heard about these proposed policies. Can I still provide comments?
Yes. To encourage a full and active public dialogue on the proposed Bay Plan amendments, the
Commission has extended its public hearing and is hosting a number of special meetings and
public workshops over the next few months. Everyone is encouraged to participate in this
dialogue.
To advance the public policy debate in a responsible fashion, the Commission has asked the public
to focus on the precise language in the staff proposal to decide whether the recommended
findings and policies, together with the other provisions of the Bay Plan, represent a cogent,
consistent and reasonable approach for dealing with the climate change impacts that are
anticipated in the Bay Area. If you find shortcomings in any of the recommended findings or
policies, the Commission welcomes your suggested revisions.
What will happen if BCDC does not amend the Bay Plan to deal with sea level rise?
Around the world investors and insurers are watching what the Bay Area and other low-lying
regions are doing to deal with climate change. International capital will flow to regions that
recognize the reality of climate change and take concrete steps to adapt to sea level rise. At the
same time, insurers will likely abandon places where risks remain too high. Simply put, the Bay
Area is in competition with others around the world to attract investment. In order to win this
contest, the Bay region cannot ignore the threats posed by climate change and sea level rise simply
because the challenges are too difficult or current economic times are hard.
The San Francisco Bay Area is famous for building coalitions between diverse interests, embracing
innovation, and looking at challenges as opportunities. This is the spirit that BCDC embraced
when it chose to address climate change. We invite you to join us in seizing this opportunity.