Download A country`s current account • balance equals the change

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Transcript
A country’s current account
 balance equals the change in its net foreign wealth
What accounts for most of the activity in the foreign exchange market
 Inter-Bank trading
A foreign exchange swap
 is a spot sale of a currency combined with a forward repurchase of the currency
Covered interest parity says that
 rates of return on domestic currency deposits and “covered” foreign currency deposits using
the forward exchange rate are the same
According to purchasing power parity
 prices of goods and services across countries reflect differences in interest rates
After a permanent increase in the money supply
 the exchange rate overshoots in the short run
Forward and spot exchange rates
 while not necessarily equal do move closely together
The current (spot) exchange rate between currencies depends on
 interest rates and the expected future exchange rate
Shortcomings of the doctrine of PPP include
 both a and b (Trade barriers and non-tradability of services)
Overshooting means that
 helps explain why exchange rates are so volatile
With interest parity
 an increase in the money supply at home causes the currency to gain value on the spot
market
The aggregate real money demand schedule L(R,Y)
 slopes downward because a fall in the interest rate raises the desired real money holdings of
each household and firm in the economy
The real exchange rate q, is defined as
 (ExP*)/P
If the dollar interest rate is 10 % .... the euro interest rate is 6 % ... and forward market predicts a 5 %
drop in the dollar’s value
 An investor should invest only in euros
If people expect relative PPP to hold
 The difference between the interest rates offered by dollar and euro deposits will equal the
difference between the inflation rates expected, in the United States and Europe
The aggregate money demand depends on
 all of above (interest rate, price level, real national income)
The CA (current account) is equal to
 Y – (C + I + G)
The expected real interest rate (re)in terms of the nominal interest rate (R) and expected inflation
rate (e) is given by
 re = R - e
Suppose that the one-year forward price of euros in terms of dollars is equal to $ 1.113 per euro.
Further, assume that the spot exchange rate is $ 1.05 per euro, and the interest rate on dollar
deposits is 10 percent and on euro it is 4 percent.
 covered interest parity does not hold
If the dollar interests rate is 10 percent and the euro interest rate is 6 percent, then
 it is impossible to tell given the information.
An increase in a country’s money supply causes
 its currency to depreciate in the foreign exchange market while a reduction in the money
supply causes its currency to depreciate
In the short-run, a temporary increase in the money supply
 shifts the AA curve to the right, increases output and depreciates the currency
A foreign exchange swap
 is a spot sale of a currency combined with a forward repurchase of the currency
A reduction in a country’s money supply causes
 its currency to appreciate in the foreign market
The current (spot) exchange rate between currencies depends on
 the expected future exchange rate
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