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Transcript
Chapter 23:
Real Estate Investment Trusts
(REITs)
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
1
Way back in Chapter 1…
Exhibit 1-5: Major Types of Capital Asset
Markets and Investment Products
Public
Markets:
Private
Markets:
Equity
Assets:
Stocks
REITs
Mutual funds
Real Property
Private firms
Oil & Gas
Partnerships
Debt
Assets:
Bonds
MBS
Money
Bank loans
Whole
Mortgages
Venture Debt
instruments
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
2
Ch 23 intro…
“Macro-level valuation”  Valuation of aggregates of numerous
individual properties, e.g., portfolios, indices, funds, REITs…
The spectrum of macro-level R.E. equity investment entities:
Indirect investment in property,
actively-managed entities.
Direct, passive investment in property
Static
Portfolios,
Indices
Funds
Unit Trusts
LPs
REITs
REOCs
Property-Level Valuation
Entity-Level Valuation
The valuation question…
• Static portfolios (private assets)  Value estimation (measurement).
• REITs (publicly-traded assets)  Value determination (causal).
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
3
23.1: Introduction to REITs…
What are Real Estate Investment
Trusts?
• Operating companies that own, develop and manage
commercial real estate
• Chartered as a corporation or business trust
• Elective choice under tax code creates pass-through of
income
• Revenue must primarily come from real estate investments
• Required to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable
income
• Taxation of income is passed through to shareholder level
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
4
What Makes a REIT Different?
• 75 percent of assets must be invested in:
• Equity ownership of real property
• Mortgages
• Other REIT shares
• Government securities and cash
• 75 percent of revenue must come from:
• Rents from real property
• Mortgage interest
• Gains from sales of real property
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
5
Large REITs are actively-managed, vertically integrated firms
providing commercial real estate goods and services for their
“customers” (tenants & users of space).
“Vertical integration”:
 Land acquisition/holding
 Development
 Ownership
o Financial capital provision
o Asset (portfolio) management
 Operation
o Asset management (franchise value, synergy)
o Property management
 Tenant services
Exhibit 23-2 (Section 23.1)
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6
Public REITs are …
Like typical industrial/service/information companies traded on the
stock exchanges, except:
• Exempt from corporate income tax
• Restricted to real estate investment related activities
• Restrictions on “merchant building”
• Must pay out 90% of earnings in dividends
So REITs are “different animals” – somewhat passive (compared to
other stocks), “pure plays” (in real estate).
But also different from direct private market investment in real estate,
as their equity is traded in the public stock exchange. This imparts
some differences in risk & return behavior, as well as some lead/lag
relationship in price discovery, caused purely by the differences in the
functioning (and clienteles) across the two asset market arenas
(private vs public). Creates liquidity. Enhances ownership by small
passive investors w/out special expertise or knowledge.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
7
Big-picture fundamentals in Ch 7 (sect.7.1.3)…
Exhibit 7-1: UNDERLYING ASSETS vs INVESTMENT
PRODUCTS, an Example from traditional corporate finance:
Underl. Asset:
Invest. Products:
Invest. Product:
Invest. Products:
ABC Widgets Corporation
(Collection of Physical, Human, & Legal Assets & Relationships)
ABC Common Stock
(Subordinated claims)
- Moderate Risk
- Moderate Total Return
- Low Cur.Yield
ABC Corporate Bonds
(Senior claims)
- Low Risk
- Low Total Return
- High Cur.Yield
Call Options
on ABC Stock
(Contingent claims)
- High Risk
- High Total Return
- Zero Cur.Yield
Various Mutual Funds
(owning various different types of claims on ABC & other assets)
- Various Risk, Return, & Cur.Yield Configurations
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
8
Underlying assets directly traded in a well functioning asset market…
Exhibit 7-2: A REAL ESTATE EXAMPLE of the Investment System
Underl. Asset:
(Priv.Traded)
"Bricks & Mortar" (e.g., Grump Family Shopping Centers)
(Rent-producing Real Properties )
Private
Invest. Products:
e.g., Ltd Partnerships
(or CREFs, Priv.REITs, etc)
Own equtiy in properties:
LP Shares (units) privately held
& privately traded if at all
Public
Invest. Products:
REITs
“UPREIT” Owns
LP Units,
Issues publicly
traded shares.
(May also directly own
Underl.Asset, or Mortgs
& CMBS)
Investors:
individual,
institutional
Small &
Large
Investors
Commercial Mortgages
Senior (debt) claims:
Privately held & traded
("whole loans")
Large
Investors
(Wealthy Individuals, Developers, Institutions)
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
CMBS
publicly traded
securities based
on a pool of mortgs
Small
&
Large
Investors
9
The
“UPREIT”
Public Investors
(Stockholders)
Private Investors
(Partnership Unit-holders)
Structure
REIT
Umbrella Partnership
(“Operating Partnership”: OP)
Property
Partnership
Property
Property
Partnership
Property
Partnership
Property
Property
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
10
23.1.1: Tax Status & Regulatory Constraints…
To retain REIT tax status (dividends deductible from corporate
taxable income), REITs must continually pass 4 tests:
1. Ownership Test: “Five or Fewer Rule.” REIT cannot be a closely held
corporation: no five or fewer individuals may own more than 50% of REIT’s
stock, and there must be at least 100 different shareholders. (“Look-Through
Provision” enacted 1993: pension funds not limited by the five-or-fewer rule.)
2. Asset Test: >= 75% of a REIT’s total assets must be real estate, mortgages, cash,
or federal government securities, and 75% or more of the REIT’s yearly gross
income must be derived directly or indirectly from real property (including
mortgages, partnerships, and other REITs). No more than 20% of its assets can
consist of stock of a Taxable REIT Subsidiry (TRS).
3. Income Test: >= 75% of income from primarily passive sources like rents and
mortgage interest. Cannot be “merchant builders” developing properties for
quick sale, or flipping properties. Property sales must obey: held for at least four
years and the aggregate adjusted basis of the property sold per year does not
exceed 10% of the aggregate basis of all assets of the REIT as of the beginning
of the year.
4. Distribution Test: At least 90% of a REIT’s annual taxable net income must be
distributed to shareholders as dividends each year .
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
11
Exhibit 23-4:
60
External Capital Raised by U.S. REITs ($billions)
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004
2005
2006
IPO
2007
SEO
2008
2009
2010
2011
Debt
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12
Historical growth of the REIT industry (“Modern REIT Era” dates from 1990s)…
23.1.2 The 1990s REIT Boom and Modern REIT Era
EXHIBIT 23-3 Size of U.S. Equity REIT Sector, 1985–2011
Source: Based on data from the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT).
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
13
Magnitude of REIT market…
800
Implied Stock Mkt Valuation of REIT Property Assets
Stk Mkt Cap / (1 - Avg LTV)
700
600
$ Billions
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Based on equity REITs only.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
14
Magnitude of REITs in private CRE market…
Exhibit 7-3:
REIT Ownership Share of U.S. Institutional Property Asset Market, 2003
100%
80%
60%
36.80%
40%
20%
7.40%
7.90%
8.50%
Apartment
Office
Warehouse
13.10%
15.20%
Non-Mall
Retail
Hotel
0%
Source: Hess & Liang (2004).
Mall Retail
These shares are probably a bit larger by now.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
15
Magnitude of REITs in private CRE market…
Exhibit 23-1:
50%
Estimated REIT % Ownership of Major ($5M+) CRE Properties by Value,
2011
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Regional Malls
Other Retail
Apartments
Office
Industrial
Based on Average annual 2005-11 Real Capital Analytics trading volume X 10, assumed approximately equal to 2011 value of stock
outstanding. (Except for Regional Malls, author's estimate of REIT share based on Hess & Liang (2004).
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
16
REIT Investors…
REIT Investors (early 2000s)
Yield-oriented
Value-oriented
Small-Mid cap
e.g., Green Street
Cohen-Steers
Vanguard
Etc…
Insiders
10%
Mut Fds
30%
REIT Mut Fds
10%
Pension Funds
10%
International
5%
Retail investors
(individ)
35%
Note: This mix
has varied
considerably in
recent years.
Recall: Different types of investors have different objectives, constraints,
concerns, horizons, income-vs-growth preferences, risk preferences, etc…
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
17
REIT stock mkt performance in the “Modern REIT Era” (1990-2011)…
REITs, Large Stocks & Small Stocks Cumulative Total Returns
11.0
REITs
SmStk
Amean/Yr
12.9%
11.1%
Gmean/Yr
10.7%
8.9%
StD/Yr
19.6%
19.8%
07Pk-09Trgh -68.3%
-52.9%
Monthly Correlations with:
REITs
100.0%
65.6%
SmStk
65.6% 100.0%
LgStk
56.2%
81.0%
10.0
9.0
7.0
6.0
56.2%
81.0%
100.0%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
NAREIT Equity REITs TR
Russell2000 TR
Sep-11
Dec-10
Mar-10
Jun-09
Sep-08
Dec-07
Mar-07
Jun-06
Sep-05
Dec-04
Mar-04
Jun-03
Sep-02
Dec-01
Mar-01
Jun-00
Sep-99
Dec-98
Mar-98
Jun-97
Sep-96
Dec-95
Mar-95
Jun-94
Sep-93
Dec-92
Mar-92
Jun-91
0.0
Sep-90
1.0
Dec-89
Dec 1989 = 1.00
8.0
LgStk
9.8%
8.6%
15.2%
-50.9%
S&P500 TR
Overall good record but particularly big hit in Financial Crisis.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
18
REITs are a major component of the Small-Cap Value group of stocks…
(May benefit some from “Fama-French Factors”?...)
REITs, & Small Stocks Growth & Value Cumulative Total Returns
11.0
10.0
REITs
Amean/Yr
12.9%
Gmean/Yr
10.7%
StD/Yr
19.6%
07Pk-09Trgh
-68.3%
Monthly Correlations with:
REITs
100.0%
53.6%
SmStk Growth
53.6% 100.0%
SmStk Value
77.0%
84.5%
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
SmStk
Value
12.2%
10.5%
17.6%
-55.5%
77.0%
84.5%
100.0%
4.0
3.0
2.0
NAREIT Equity REITs TR
Russell2000 Growth TR
Sep-11
Dec-10
Mar-10
Jun-09
Sep-08
Dec-07
Mar-07
Jun-06
Sep-05
Dec-04
Mar-04
Jun-03
Sep-02
Dec-01
Mar-01
Jun-00
Sep-99
Dec-98
Mar-98
Jun-97
Sep-96
Dec-95
Mar-95
Jun-94
Sep-93
Dec-92
Mar-92
Jun-91
0.0
Sep-90
1.0
Dec-89
Dec 1989 = 1.00
SmStk
Growth
9.8%
6.8%
23.4%
-52.3%
1990-2011:
Russell2000 Value TR
Particularly big hit in Financial Crisis, but good recovery since.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
19
23.2 REIT Analysis & Valuation
REIT shares are valued in the same way as other public equities,
but with a twist because of the unique Real Estate asset base …
• Dividend Discount or DCF Models
 Share price equals PV of expected future dividends
• Earnings Multiple Shortcuts to DCF
 Share price equals a multiple of REIT earnings/cash flow
REITs viewed
as operating
companies like
other publiclytraded firms
• Premium to Net Asset Value (NAV) of a REIT’s Properties
Build an estimate of public REIT equity value starting with the private mkt value
of a REIT’s assets in place, then adjust for growth opps and other factors.
 Share price equals a “warranted” premium (or discount) to REIT NAV
The three approaches are certainly related, but may at times provide different
indications of value, depending on the general economic environment as well as
conditions in the public stock and bond markets, and the private real estate
market.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
20
23.2: REIT Analysis & Valuation
It’s all about valuation, and fundamentally there are two
ways to value a REIT:
1. As a collection of assets;
2. As a stream of cash flows.
Property acquisition requires consideration from both
perspectives.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
21
23.2.1: REIT Earnings Measures. Exhibit 23-5:
*Direct property EBTCF is not directly available to a passive investor, whereas REIT AFFO is.
EXHIBIT 23-5 Widely Used Direct Property vs. REIT Income Measures
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
22
Widely Used Direct Property vs REIT Income Measures
PGI “straight-lined” in
GAAP accrual
accounting used by
REITs, not cash flow.
OE includes prop mgt
& other items that may
be profit centers for
some REITs
“FFO” typically excludes
“extraordinary” items such
as major asset sales.
“Also adjust for other noncash-flow effects such as
rentproperty
straight-lining.
*Direct
EBTCF is not directly available to a passive investor, whereas REIT AFFO is.
EXHIBIT 23-5 Widely Used Direct Property vs. REIT Income Measures
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
23
On avg REITs pay out 73% of FFO in dividends.
Lately a bit less…
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24
23.2.1 REIT Earnings Measures
The Problem:
How to compare REIT earnings with those of other corporations
(e.g., so as to compare share price/earnings multiples on an “apples
vs apples” basis.
• Real estate investment & ownership (the “REIT business”) is very
capital intensive:
• REITs have abnormally high depreciation expenses, which reduce
“official earnings” (GAAP net income), the standard measure of corporate
earnings on Wall Street.
• Yet REIT assets do not actually depreciate in the sense that “samestore” property cash flows and values typically do not decline in nominal
terms (because the real depreciation rate in property is typically matched
or even exceeded by the general monetary inflation rate).
Hence (so the argument goes):
GAAP earnings don’t present a “fair” or “accurate” measure of
REIT earnings.
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25
In the early 1990s, the REIT industry (through NAREIT) came up with
an alternative measure of earnings that the industry tried to promulgate
as a substitute for GAAP net income for the REIT industry:
“Funds From Operations”
FFO
FFO (“Funds From Operations”)
Start with GAAP net income, then
Add back: Real property depreciation expense.
Add back: Preferred stock dividends and distributions to OP unit- holders.
Deduct: Net gains from property sales & extraordinary items.
FFO ≈ Aggregate (i.e. firm level) NOI - interest
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
26
This was further supplemented by another measure that more closely
reflected cash flow actually available for external distribution:
“Adjusted Funds From Operations”
AFFO
AFFO (“Adjusted Funds from Operation”) – aka “Funds Available for
Distritution (FAD)
Start with FFO, then:
Deduct: Recurring capital improvement expenditures (CI).
Adjust for: Straight-line rents.
Deduct: Amortization of debt principle (AMORT).
AFFO ≈ Aggregate (i.e. firm level) EBTCF
Terminology Alert!
In common parlance it is often not clear exactly what measure is being
referred to when people use the terms “FFO” and “AFFO”.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
27
FFO is often spoken of as the analogy at the REIT level of the “NOI” at the
property level. But what is an important difference between these two
measures of earnings?
FFO is a firm-level measure that is net of interest payments on the REIT’s debt.
NOI is a property-level measure that is free and clear of debt.
AFFO is the firm-level analog to the EBTCF (Equity Before-Tax Cash Flow)
measure at the property level.
Typical P/E ratios based on AFFO have varied between 8 and 12 in recent years for
most REITs, while dividend yields have averaged 6% to 8%.
A simple (and somewhat simplistic) method of REIT valuation of a property
acquisition would be to compare the property price / EBTCF multiple (based on the
REIT’s target capital structure debt applied to the property) with the REIT’s
current stock market share price/earnings multiple based on AFFO. If the latter
exceeds the former, the acquisition may seem feasible (and/or “accretive” if the
REIT multiple exceeds the property multiple).
However, you are more sophisticated than this simplistic approach, aren’t you!
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
28
Problems with FFO, AFFO, etc.,
The principle underlying “The FFO Movement” is valid:
Cash flow matters more than accounting numbers.
However, in practice several problems arose with the use of FFO:
• The REIT industry could never agree on a single, mandatory standard
definition of how to define and measure FFO (or AFFO, or any of the other
cash-oriented earnings measures).
•  There arose a profusion of different measures and definitions, with each
REIT tending to customize its own measure (e.g., REITs that made substantial
money from property sales didn’t like FFO’s removal of extraordinary
earnings due to asset sales; they said their “operations” included “asset
sales”).
• There was a substantial loss in credibility (based perhaps more on perception
than reality), which was exacerbated with the general corporate “Pro-Forma
Earnings Scandal” of the early 2000s, associated with the stock market crash.
For all its faults, GAAP net income has the one great advantage that it is uniformly
and precisely defined, the same for everyone.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
29
23.2.2 Valuing REITs as a Stream of Cash Flows: the Gordon
Growth Model
The Stock market is highly integrated.
REIT equity shares are traded in the stock market.
So REITs are valued essentially like other stocks (DCF, Ch.10):
PV 
DIV3
DIV1
DIV2



1  r (1  r ) 2 (1  r )3
DIV = Annual entity (firm) level equity cash flow to stockholders (“Dividends”).
r = Stock Mkt’s required ex ante total return to firm-level equity (REIT’s avg
equity cost of capital “COE”).
PV = Value of REIT’s equity (per share  stock price).
More common short-cut is:
Based on constant-growth
perpetuity math formula.
Analogous to “cap rate” in RE,
“Direct Capitalization” method of
property valuation.
DIV1
PV 
rg*
“Gordon Growth
Model” (GGM)
(Based on forward-looking long-run average r and g.)
g* = Long-run avg future growth rate in dividends.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
30
GGM  REIT Value = f ( DIV1 , g* , r ). Based on three values.
DIV1
PV 
 PBTCF – DS – G&A – plowback (holdings & sales, less plowback)
= EBTCF – G&A – plowback = AFFO – plowback :
DIV1
rg*
• Analyze firm’s current property operations & financing.
• Firm can temporarily pay out more cash than it earns from operations by the use
of sales of its assets or by the use of financing techniques, but GGM requires longrun average values (avoid or stabilize “extraordinary” sources of dividends).
g*
is very important ( 1 pt Δg*  > ≈ 20% ΔPV ). Reflects:
• LR growth in EBTCF (sustainable “same store growth”(as levered) +
“plowback”).
• LR ability of REIT mgt to generate “growth opportunities” (NPV>0
projects). This is the toughest part (and why we add the * to the g).
r
= Firm’s avg equity OCC = rf + RP = y + g* , in the firm’s equity:
 Based on Stock Mkt’s perception & evaluation of firm-level risk.
Two major traditional approaches to estimate E[RP]: CAPM & GGM.
r  rf   E[rM ]  rf 
r
DIV1
 g* 
PV
y g*
(Best applied to a class or type of stocks, adjust for subj firm’s leverage.)
Most volatility in REIT prices due to changes in mkt expectns about g* & r.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
31
Also requires serious consideration of required return…
DIV1
GGM  REIT Value = f ( DIV1 , g* , r ). Based on three values. PV 
DIV1
 PBTCF – DS – G&A – plowback (holdings & sales, less plowback)
= EBTCF – G&A – plowback = AFFO – plowback :
rg*
• Analyze firm’s current property operations & financing.
• Firm can temporarily pay out more cash than it earns from operations by the use
of sales of its assets or by the use of financing techniques, but GGM requires longrun average values (avoid or stabilize “extraordinary” sources of dividends).
g*
is very important ( 1 pt Δg*  > ≈ 20% ΔPV ). Reflects:
• LR growth in EBTCF (sustainable “same store growth”(as levered) +
“plowback”).
• LR ability of REIT mgt to generate “growth opportunities” (NPV>0
projects). This is the toughest part (and why we add the * to the g).
r
= Firm’s avg equity OCC = rf + RP = y + g* , in the firm’s equity:
 Based on Stock Mkt’s perception & evaluation of firm-level risk.
Two major traditional approaches to estimate E[RP]: 3-Factor CAPM & GGM.
Fama-French
3-factor may
enhance
r  rf   E[rM ]  rf   s( E[rSMB ])  h( E[rHML ])
r
DIV1
 g* 
PV
y g*
Can be tautological; CAPM
better theoretically.
(Best applied to a class or type of stocks, adjust for subj firm’s leverage.)
Most volatility in REIT prices due to changes in mkt expectns about g* & r.
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
32
Recall from Ch.22…
22.4
The simple 1-factor CAPM has trouble empirically within asset classes.
Fama-French: CAPM by itself doesn’t work very well within the stock market:
REITs tend to have high B/M (“HML”),
low Beta.
Cross-sectionally, P/NAV ≈  M/B:
Low P/NAV (high HML)  high return.
Enhance the basic model with additional factors that are more “tangible” than
beta: (i) Stock’s Size (mkt cap), & (ii) Stock’s Book/Market Value Ratio. The
market apparently
associates
these
with “risk”.
© 2014 OnCourse
Learning. All Rights
Reserved.
33
GGM shortcut may be applied to earnings rather than to
dividends. And earnings may be defined in various ways:
(GAAP, FFO, AFFO,…)
AFFO1 DIV1
PVequity 

, DIV1  AFFO1 , g  g E
r  gE
rg
g = Long-run growth rate in dividends per share (includes effect of “plowback”).
gE = Long-run growth rate in earnings (AFFO) of pre-existing (“same-store”) assets.
DIV1 = (1-p)AFFO1 = (1-p)yEPV0, where p is the “plowback ratio”, and :
yE = equity income yield from firm’s underlying asset equity [=AFFO/PV, or @ property level ≈ EBTCF/(V-D)],
PV0 = firm’s underlying asset equity value at the beginning of Year 1. Then:
DIV2 = (1-p)yEPV1 = (1-p)yE[(1+gE)PV0 + pyEPV0] = (1-p)yE(1+gE+pyE)PV0 = (1+gE+pyE)DIV1 .
 g = gE + pyE ,  gE = g – pyE .
Note: For a REIT, in the absence of growth opportunities (all acquisitions @ NPV=0), PV0 is essentially based
only on the firm’s assets in place, and yE is the current equity yield of those assets. Thus, gE is essentially the
long-run growth rate in“same store” earnings (same-store EBTCF as levered).
PVequity 
AFFO1
AFFO1
1
PVequity / Sh
1
1 p
,  r  gE 

.  P/E 


r  gE
PVequity Pr ice / Earn
AFFO1 / Sh
r  gE r  g
© 2014 OnCourse Learning. All Rights Reserved.
34
Analysis Tip: The GGM can be applied either to dividends or to earnings:E  AFFO1  DIV1
r  gE
rg
The firm’s equity OCC ( r ) is the same*, but you have to be careful about the relevant growth rate
in the denominator:
• g = Long-run growth rate in dividends per share (includes effect of “plowback”).
• gE = Long-run growth rate in pre-existing assets’ earnings per share (for REITs, usually growth
rate in levered “same store” earnings, over the long run).
Note: gE = g – pyE , where p = Plowback Ratio (fraction of earnings retained for reinvestment, not
paid out as dividends: p = 1 – (DIV / AFFO ). Thus, normally: g > gE .
DIV1 = (1-p)AFFO1 = (1-p)yEE0, where p is the “plowback ratio”, and :
yE = equity income yield from firm’s underlying asset equity [=AFFO/E, or @ property level ≈ EBTCF/(V-D)],
E0 = firm’s underlying asset equity value at the beginning of Year 1. Then:
DIV2 = (1-p)yEE1 = (1-p)yE[(1+gE)E0 + pyEE0] = (1-p)yE(1+gE+pyE)E0 = (1+gE+pyE)DIV1 .
g = gE + pyE ,  gE = g – pyE .
Note: For a REIT, in the absence of growth opportunities (all acquisitions @ NPV=0), E0 is essentially based
only on the firm’s assets in place, and yE is the current equity yield of those assets. Thus, gE is essentially the
long-run growth rate in“same store” earnings (EBTCF as levered).
E
AFFO1
AFFO1
1
,  r  gE 

r  gE
E
Pr ice / Earnings Ratio
Reality Check: In long run (in absence of NPV > 0 growth opportunities):
High Price/Earnings Ratio  Either low r, or high same-store levered gE .
How sustainable is a low r?; How realistic is a high same-store levered gE?; Where
does NPV > 0 come from?
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35
Recall…
g is very important ( 1 pt Δg  > ≈ 10% ΔE ). Reflects:
• LR growth in EBTCF (sustainable “same store growth” + “plowback”).
• LR ability of REIT mgt to generate “growth opportunities” (NPV>0
projects).
Same store growth (existing property cash flow growth) is pretty mundane:
• Easy to quantify, Easy to predict,
• Usually not very exciting (R.E. “bricks & mortar” are “cash cows”, not “growth
stars”, though use of leverage can make more exciting).
Plowback (NPV=0 acquisition of assets) is more uncertain:
• How long can firm find new acquisitions at NPV=0?
• But analyst can “short-cut” around this question by using AFFO version of
GGM.
Growth opportunities (NPV>0 actions) is the more interesting source of g :
• More uncertain & difficult to predict (how realistic?, How sustainable?),
• More volatility in mkt expectns about magnitude of NPV>0 opportunities.
Growth opportunities:
Micro (property) level: Buy Low or Sell High Deals; “Arbitrage” betw publ & priv mkts;
Entrepreneurial/Innovative Devlopment; Creative Mgt of Operations.
Macro (firm) level: Economies of Scale; Franchise Value; Rental Mkt Dominance; etc.
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36
Consider a basic challenge facing REITs…
• REITs tend to be “value stocks”, not “growth stocks”.
• But stock mkt is “Land of Growth”, penalizes value
stocks (like REITs).
• This may be good for REIT investors (high returns), but
it is tough for REIT managers (low stock valuations,
high cost of equity capital).
• Fundamental challenge is REITs are real estate, and
real estate is “cash cows”, not growth plays. Real
estate assets (including land) trade in well-functioning
markets (private prop mkt), making NPV > 0 hard to
find.
• How can REITs play in the “growth show” that is the
stock mkt arena?...
• Consider three ways REITs can grow share price…
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37
Three ways REITs can grow price/share…
1. Leverage…
2. Plowback…
3. Positive NPV acquisitions…
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38
Leverage…
Recall from fall course (Ch 13, basics of leverage)
that leverage typically skews the equity return
components relatively away from income and
towards growth.
Consider effect of leverage on static portfolio of
assets (pre-existing, “same store” assets)…
Suppose assets produce $50/yr net cash flow,
growing @ 2%/yr, and OCC (req’d return
unlevered) is 7%. Then portf of assets worth
50/(.07 – .02) = $1000. (Note: Inflation might be 3%/yr; property
depreciates in real terms 1%/yr…)
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Leverage…
Now suppose REIT applies leverage of 50%...
REIT has $500 equity, $500 debt (IO).
Suppose debt interest rate = 5%/yr:  $25/yr.
As levered, “same-store” REIT returns are (apply
WACC inverted to solve for equity):
• Total return: rE = rD + (rP – rD)LR = 5%+(7%-5%)2 = 9%
• Growth: gE = gD + (gP – gD)LR = 0%+(2%-0%)2 = 4%
• Same-store cash flow yield rate is: yE = 9% – 4% = 5%.
Leverage applied to same-store assets gives
REIT 4%/yr growth instead of 2% w/out levg.
REIT net cash flow (“FAD” or “AFFO”) is
$50 – $25 = $25/yr.
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40
Plowback…
Now consider effect of “plowback” (retained
earnings).
REIT net cash flow (“FAD” or “AFFO”) is
$50 – $25 = $25/yr.
Suppose REIT retains 20%, pays $20 dividends:
Dividend yield is 4% (not 5% cash yld rate of assets).
Reinvests $5, combined w $5 new debt (keep D/E
ratio)…
Asset holdings from last year to now:
• $1000 grew to $1020 (2%). Allows $20 new debt (keep D/E).
• Reinvest new debt + plowback = $30, assets now $1050.
• Debt is now $525, so equity is now $525.
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41
Plowback…
REIT equity has grown from $500 to $525:
 5% growth rate.
No new shares have been issued, so:
•
•
•
•
•
REIT yield = 4% (= $20 divs / $500 starting equity).
REIT growth = 5% (= (525-500)/500.)
REIT total return = 4% + 5% = 9%.
No “free lunch”, 9% is fair return, =OCC, given risk.
Changing plowback does not change share price (only growth
rate), as long as NPV=0 (Modigliani-Miller, GM book p.600-601).
Effect of plowback adds 1%/yr of growth
(subtracts 1% from yield).
(This on top of effect of leverage: added 2% to
growth without affecting yield so added 2% to
total return, due to increased risk (RP +2%))
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42
Leverage & Plowback…
In this example (typical):
Leverage adds 2% to growth without affecting
yield so adds 2% to total return, due to
increased risk ( r = rf + RP, RP increased 2%).
Plowback adds 1%/yr of growth (subtracts 1%
from yield), doesn’t affect OCC or PV.
REIT share price (& dividends) now growing @
5%/yr while its properties (& their cash flow)
are only growing @ 2%/yr same-store (less
than 3% inflation).
All this with only NPV = 0. No new shares issued.
No NPV <> 0 acquisitions.
REIT Price/Earnings = Eq/AFFO = 500/25 = 20.
(Approx same as levered same-store assets Eq/EBTCF).
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43
Leverage & Plowback…
REIT can also grow in scale (mkt capitalization)
by issuing new shares or increasing D/E ratio.
But increasing debt will increase equity risk.
Issuing new shares adds to the “float” (number
of shares outstanding), but does not in itself
change the price/share, assuming only NPV=0
investments.
Neither adding equity nor adding debt will by
themselves change share price in absence of
NPV <> 0 investment. No change in P/E.
(Modigliani-Miller)
(Possible exception: if scale itself adds value?...
Then NPV > 0.)
Or other “special effects: signaling? Or COFD if they borrow too much?...
44
Third source of share price growth:
Positive NPV acquisitions, or entity-level value
addition…
Typical sources of “growth opportunities” (NPV > 0) in
REITs (if any):
 Developable land already owned.
 Entrepreneurial abilities (in devlpt, or possibly other
activities).
 Macro-level abilities (scale economies?, franchise
value?, econ of scope?...).
 Differential property asset valuation in stock vs
private property markets.
Any of these may be like “call options” (or “real options”).
Add value (PV) to the stock, w/out providing earnings
(currently). In our example,  Price/Earnings > 20.
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45
These three sources of share price growth must (mathematically) account
for the difference in growth between REITs and direct private property
price appreciation (same-property)…
NAREIT vs NCREIF: Cumulative Price Change, 1975-2011
12.0
REITs: 7%/yr
Property: 4%/yr
10.0
1974 = 1.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
NCREIF TBI Price Index
NAREIT Equity REIT share price
CAVEAT: These two graphs are a little bit “apples vs oranges”, as the types of
properties held by REITs differ a bit from those held by pension fu nds in the
NCREIF
index
(butAllthey
are similar).
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Learning.
Rights Reserved.
46
REITs also have generally provided cash yields at least as high as direct
private property (though again: this may partly be apples-vs-oranges in
terms of types of properties)…
NAREIT vs NCREIF: Avg Annual Cash Yield
REITs: 8%/yr
Property: 6%/yr
14%
Payout per Year / Price
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
NAREIT Equity REIT dividend yield
NCREIF TBI Cash Payout Rate
This can occur in principle by the use of leverage that is “positive” in the yield (cash pmt rate on the debt is
lower than equity yield rate in the underlying properties, e.g., int-only dbt with int rate < cap rate – capex/Val
in properties: yD < yP). Or maybe REITs are more effective at property mgt, or purchase properties at higher
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47
Fundamental Growth Opportunities
Are REITs growth stocks or income stocks?
Beneficial of Boston (BOB): An “income REIT”…
Owns properties that pay $100 million / yr, in perpetuity, no debt.
OCC = r = 10%;
g = 0.
Using GGM, BOB’s equity is worth:
E BOB
$100 million $100 million


 $1000 million
0.10  0.0
0.10
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48
Sioux Realty (Sioux): A “growth REIT”…
Sioux owns stabilized operating properties like BOB’s that pay $50
million / yr in perpetuity, no debt, plus:
Land on which a completed project worth $3000 million in one year can
be built, at a cost of $2400 million construction. Due to the risk in this
development project (note the operational leverage), the OCC for this
project is 20%.
Thus, Sioux’s value is:
E SIOUX  PV ( Existing )  PV (Growth)
$50 million $600 million

0.10  0.0
1  0.20
 ($500  $500) million

 $1000 million
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49
BOB’s and Sioux’s Price/Earnings multiples are:
E / AFFOBOB
$1000 million

 10
$100 million
E / AFFOSIOUX
$1000 million

 20
$50 million
If they pay out all their income as dividends, what are the current yields of
these two REITs? Answer: BOB yield = 10%, Sioux yield = 5%.
Why is Sioux a “growth REIT”?
Is it because Sioux “does development projects”?
Suppose Sioux did not already own the land (and were similar to the “second
best developer” on the site)?
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50
Growth stocks have positive NPV opportunities.
Value of Firm = Value of Existing Assets in Place (less debt)
Equity (E)
+ Net Value of Growth Opportunities
(1  p) AFFO1
 NPV ( growth opportunities )
rg
AFFO1

 NPV ( growth opportunities )
r  gE
E
Value of
assets in
place less
debt

DIV1
(1  p) AFFO1

r  g*
r  g*
Collapsing it into the GGM
framework: g* is larger than g
without growth opportunities.
NPV >0 growth opps. result in high REIT price to earnings multiples …
E
AFFO1
P
( AFFO1 per share )

(1  p)
r  g*
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51
Typical sources of growth (NPV > 0) opportunities in REITs (if any):
 Developable land already owned.
 Entrepreneurial abilities (in devlpt, or possibly other activities).
 Macro-level abilities
(scale economies?, franchise value?, econ of scope?).
 Differential property asset valuation in stock vs private property
markets.
“Most REITs are not growth stocks most of the time,
but some REITs are growth stocks most of the time,
and most REITs are growth stocks some of the time.”
Last case is possible because of…
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52
23.2.3: Valuing REITs as Collections of Assets:
NAV-Based Valuation
What is REIT “NAV” ?
Net Asset Value =
REIT Assets Value (as valued in property market *)
– REIT Liabilities**
÷ No. Shares Outstanding
* As estimated by REIT analyst, e.g.: “mass appraisal”:
• Divide REIT holdings into major market segments (e.g., Offices in Boston,
Warehouses in Chicago);
• Identify NOI (like EBITDA) associated with each segment;
• Estimate current property mkt prevailing “cap rates” in each segment;
• Apply estimated cap rates to estimated NOI to estimate asset value in each segment.
• Add and adjust for: (i) Land holdings & construction in progress; (ii) Non-assetbased earnings (e.g., prop.mgt fees) using estimated P/E ratio.
** Theoretically should be market value of debt (often book value used in practice).
Comparison of resulting NAV with the stock mkt based share price:
 Stock Mkt / Property Mkt Valuation Differential,
 Stock Value – NAV = NPV of REIT Growth Opportunities (as valued by the
stock mkt); &/or…
 Errors or omissions in the NAV estimation process.
53
23.2.4 REIT Public/Private Arbitrage:
Public versus Private Market Pricing of Real Estate Equity …
REIT Share Price Premium to NAV
Green Street Average REIT Share Price Premium Over NAV, 1990-2012
40%
30%
20%
P/NAV - 1
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
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2/1/2012
2/1/2011
2/1/2010
2/1/2009
2/1/2008
2/1/2007
2/1/2006
2/1/2005
2/1/2004
2/1/2003
2/1/2002
2/1/2001
2/1/2000
2/1/1999
2/1/1998
2/1/1997
2/1/1996
2/1/1995
2/1/1994
2/1/1993
2/1/1992
2/1/1991
2/1/1990
-50%
54
23.2.4 REIT Public/Private Arbitrage:
The point is . . .
• REIT-based valuations & private property mkt-based valuations appear
to be different much of the time.
• These differences do not appear to be explainable by differences in the
underlying operating cash flows of the REITs vs the private properties;
nor are they explainable entirely by purely firm-level considerations (e.g.,
debt financing, entity-level mgt, trading, etc.).
• Thus, at least part of these differences appear to be micro-level valuation
differences, differences in the two markets’ perceptions of the values of the
same underlying properties as of the same point in time (“micro-level” =
“bricks & mortar”, underlying assets as opposed to firm-level effects).
• There is some evidence that REIT valuations tend to be a bit more
volatile, and to lead the private property market valuations in time (based
on timing of major cyclical turning points, the lead may be up to 3 years.)
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55
Another perspective on this same point (from Chapter 12)
3.50
Exhibit 12-3: Equity REIUT Share Prices Versus Private
Property Net Asset Values (NAVs)
3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
Ratio (Price/NAV)
NAREIT Share Price
Feb-11
May-10
Aug-09
Nov-08
Feb-08
May-07
Aug-06
Nov-05
Feb-05
May-04
Aug-03
Nov-02
Feb-02
May-01
Aug-00
Nov-99
Feb-99
May-98
Aug-97
Nov-96
Feb-96
May-95
Aug-94
Nov-93
Feb-93
May-92
Aug-91
Nov-90
Feb-90
0.50
Green Street NAV
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56
Two types of micro-level valuation differences:
Longitudinal & Cross-sectional
Longitudinal (across time) difference:
• REIT mkt in aggregate leads private market in aggregate
(not perfectly, but…):
• Info flows from Public  Private (mkt as whole)
(Public mkt more informationally “efficient”.)
Cross-sectional (across REITs) difference:
• Private Mkt NAVs contain information (again, not
perfect, but…)
• Low P/NAV REITs tend to rise, & vice versa.
(Public mkt tends to “tar all with same brush”.)
• Info can flow from Private  Public (specific
REITs, based on asset holdings)
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57
Regarding the longitudinal (aggregate) relationship:
• Traditional wisdom (and historical evidence) suggests REITs lead
Private (REIT  Private).
• But 2001-04 period indicated greater contemporaneous link,
possibly followed by a disconnect as private equity may have
“bubbled” (2004-07).
• Closer linkage betw the two mkts may be related to REITs owning a
larger share of properties in many mkt segments, such that private
investors in the direct property market are more influenced by REIT
capital.
• REIT fall in 2007 preceded that in the private market by only a few
months, but was swifter and sharper.
• Private mkt derivatives pricing (NCREIF swaps, CMBX) was
consistent with (and nearly contemporaneous with) REIT share fall.
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58
Mkt Index Value Levels
If Public  Private, then:
• Public > Private when values are rising;
• Private > Public when values are falling.
Private
Public
Time
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59
Two types of micro-level valuation differences:
Longitudinal & Cross-sectional
Longitudinal (across time) difference:
• REIT mkt in aggregate leads private market in aggregate
(not perfectly, but…):
• Info flows from Public  Private (mkt as whole)
(Public mkt more informationally “efficient”.)
Cross-sectional (across REITs) difference:
• Private Mkt NAVs contain information (again, not
perfect, but…)
• Low P/NAV REITs tend to rise, & vice versa.
(Public mkt tends to “tar all with same brush”.)
• Info can flow from Private  Public (specific
REITs, based on asset holdings)
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60
Third source of share price growth:
Positive NPV acquisitions (or entity-level value
addition)…
Typical sources of “growth opportunities” (NPV > 0) in
REITs (if any):
 Developable land already owned.
 Entrepreneurial abilities (in devlpt, or possibly other
activities).
 Macro-level abilities (scale economies?, franchise
value?, econ of scope?...).
 Differential property asset valuation in stock vs
private property markets.
These may be like “call options” (or “real options”). Add
value (PV) to the stock, w/out providing earnings
(currently). In our example,  Price/Earnings > 20.
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61
When REIT valuation > Private valuation (positive REIT premium to
NAV):
• REITs have growth opportunities (NPV>0, “accretion”) from buying in the
private market.
• REITs raise capital by issuing stock in the public mkt, use proceeds to buy
properties.
When REIT valuation < Private valuation (negative REIT premium to
NAV):
• REITs are no longer “growth stocks”, and their shares are re-priced accordingly
in the stock market (price/earnings multiples fall, REITs are priced like “value
stocks”, or “income stocks”).
• In the extreme, REITs may become “shrinking stocks”, maximizing shareholder
value by selling off property equity (or debt) and paying out proceeds in dividends.
The 2 mkts swing between these 2 conditions, also with periods when they
are nearly equal valued.
Little “arbitrage trading” occurs when the 2 mkts are within 5%-10% of
each other’s valuations (due to transaction costs, firm-level effects).
Arbitrage trading tends to keep valuation differences to less than 15%20%, but occasionally greater differences have briefly occurred.
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62
How can a REIT “remain a public REIT in business”, and still maximize
shareholder value during times when the stock market valuation of real estate is
less than the private property market valuation?
IVREIT < MVPRIV
• Sell into the private market most but not all of the equity in many of their properties (e.g.,
sell properties into a partnership controlled by the REIT, with passive equity partners),
paying out proceeds in extraordinary dividends (or stock purchases), while retaining
effective operational control over the assets (e.g., sell to passive partners, such as pension
funds):  REIT retains scale & operational product.
• Issue secured debt (mortgages) collateralized by the excess of MVPRIV over IVREIT , paying
out proceeds as extraordinary dividends. ( Risky.)
• Sell some of their properties outright into the private market (paying proceeds as dividends
or stock purchase), but subject to contracts to retain the REIT as property manager (TRS).
• If private market valuations are sufficiently high (and expected to remain so), consider
going into development projects with most financing coming from external private equity
and debt sources:  Use the REIT’s entrepreneurial capability; Use developable land
already owned; Maximize leverage of private market valuation. (Note: Though tempting, this
strategy is risky at the peak of a private market cycle.)
• Reinvest proceeds from domestic private market sales into international real estate assets
where valuations are lower (yields are higher).
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63
23.3 Some Considerations of REIT Management Strategy
The traditional real estate cliché about the “3 determinants of value”:
“Location, location, location”.
The modern REIT cliché about the “3 determinants of value”:
“Management, management, management”.
Six major strategies or strategic considerations…
1) Financial strategy: “Caught between a rock and a hard place”…
- REITs don’t have traditional C-corp income tax-based rationale for
use of debt financing. But REITs often need external capital (R.E. is
capital-intensive, and REITs must pay out 90% of earnings). Various
considerations enter the REIT capital structure equation:
 Stock market wants growth;
 Real estate is not a growth asset without lots of leverage (maximized by
short-term or floating-rate debt);
 Stock market doesn’t like REITs to be highly levered (especially with shortterm or floating-rate debt).
 Solution: walk the tightrope carefully.
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64
23.3 Some REIT Strategic Management Considerations (cont.)
2) Specialize (know your market):
 Be a “residential REIT” or a “retail REIT”, etc…
 Sometimes some combinations are “OK” (e.g., office & industrial)
 Geographical specialization is “less cool” (you gotta get scale economies
somehow!)
3) Build “franchise value” (brand name recognition?):
Improve tenant service with increased geographical and product scope.
4) Consider “vertical integration”:
Land, Devlpt, Asset ownership, Property Mgt, Leasing, Tenant Svcs
(logistics, communications, etc), Information (databank);
Allows REIT to ride through periods when stock market undervalues real
estate assets relative to the property market (sell most asset ownership into
property market, retain control and ancillary functions, possibly develop
new buildings);
During periods of low property market asset valuation relative to the stock
market, buy existing properties and bank buildable land).
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65
23.3 Some REIT Strategic Management Considerations (cont.)
5) Take advantage of Economies of Scale (such as they are):
 Are there scale economies in REIT administrative costs?…
 Are there scale economies in REIT capital costs?…
 Where are the limits of such economies?…
 Are there economies of scope in REIT service provision?…
6) Try to develop some market power (“monopoly control”) in local space
markets:
 Buy (or build) most of the space of a given type in a given local
submarket;
 But beware, rare is the submarket that has no potential close substitute
in the same metro area.
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66
REIT consolidation (to gain scale economies)…
Exh.23-3 Size of the U.S. Equity REIT Sector, 1985-2011
200
400
180
350
160
140
300
120
250
100
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
Number of REITs
Equity Market Cap ($ Billions)
450
0
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Stock Mkt Capitalization
Number of Traded REITs
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67
23.4 Some REIT investor considerations…
1) Choosing between public (REIT) versus private (direct property) investment
in real estate…
 Direct investment in private R.E. has problems regarding illiquidity,
need for active management and specialized local expertise, and lumpy
scale (capital constraints).
 But REITs provide less diversification in a stock-dominated portfolio,
and have more volatile, less-predictable returns.
 Small investors without specialized expertise should probably stick with
REITs.
 Large investors or those with specialized expertise can benefit from direct
private investment (albeit also with some REIT investment for tactical or
strategic portfolio management).
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68
23.4 Some REIT investor considerations…
2) REIT behavior in the stock market…
 On average REITs tend to be high-yield, low-beta stocks (  0.5,
typically a small-to-mid cap value stock);
 REITs tend to exhibit higher beta during market downswings than
during upswings (  0.8 in down-markets, 0.3 in up-markets – typical of
value stocks);
 REITs may be useful as a tactical tool for taking advantage of asset
market cycles in the private property market (which is more predictable
than the stock market).
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69
Exh.23-8: Correlation of Equity REIT Returns with
Common Stock Returns (60 month moving average)
Correlation of Equity REIT Returns with Common Stock Retrns (60-month moving average)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
S&P500
Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000)
Nov-11
Apr-11
Sep-10
Feb-10
Jul-09
Dec-08
May-08
Oct-07
Mar-07
Aug-06
Jan-06
Jun-05
Nov-04
Apr-04
Sep-03
Feb-03
Jul-02
Dec-01
May-01
Oct-00
Mar-00
Aug-99
Jan-99
Jun-98
Nov-97
Apr-97
Sep-96
Feb-96
Jul-95
0%
Dec-94
10%
Small Cap Value (Russell 2000)
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70
REIT Acquistion Evaluation: Recall from Chapter 12 (sect.12.3.3)…
Using WACC to avoid a common mistake. . .
The "Weighted Average Cost of Capital" (WACC) Formula . . .
rP = (L/V)rD + [1-(L/V)]rE
Suppose REIT A can borrow @ 6%, and REIT B @ no less than 8%. Then
doesn’t REIT A have a lower cost of capital than REIT B?
Answer: Not necessarily. Suppose (for example):
REIT A:
D/E = 3/7.
 D/V = L/V = 30%.
REIT B:
D/E = 1.
 D/V = L/V = 50%.
& suppose both A & B have cost of equity = E[rE] = 15%.
Then:
WACC(A)
=(0.3)6% + (0.7)15% = 1.8% + 10.5% = 12.3%
WACC(B)
=(0.5)8% + (0.5)15% = 4% + 7.5% = 11.5%
So in this example REIT A has a higher cost of capital than B, even though
A can borrow at a lower rate. (Note, this same argument applies whether
or not either or both investors are REITs.) You have to consider the cost of
your equity as well as the cost of your debt to determine your cost of
capital.
Corporate WACC tells OCC of average corp asset.
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71
But Corp avg WACC is not nec = acquisition OCC…
12.3.3: Risk is in the object not in the beholder.
(Remember from Ch.10: Match disc.rate to the risk of the
investment whose CFs are being discounted.)
Property "X" has the same risk for Investor "A" as
for Investor "B".
Therefore, oppty cost of cap (r) is same for “A” &
“B” for purposes of evaluating NPV of investment
in “X” (same discount rate).
Unless, say, “A” has some unique ability to alter the
risk of X’s future CFs. (This is rare: be skeptical of
such claims!)
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72
Example...
REIT A has expected total return to equity = 12%, Avg.debt int.rate =
7%, Debt/Total Asset Value Ratio = 20%
What is REIT A’s (firm-level) Cost of Capital (WACC)?
Ans: (0.2)7% + (1-0.2)12% = 1.4% + 9.6% = 11%.
REIT B has no debt, curr.div.yield = 6%, pays out all its earnings in
dividends (share price/earnings multiple = 16.667), avg.div.
growth rate = 4%/yr.
What is REIT B’s Cost of Capital?
[Hint: Use “Gordon Growth Model”: r = y + g.]
Ans: 6% + 4% = 10%.
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73
Example (cont.)...
Property X is a Boston Office Bldg, in a market where such bldgs sell at
8% cap rates (CF / V), with 0.5% expected LR annual growth (in V &
CF). It has initial CF = $1,000,000/yr.
How much can REIT A afford to pay for Prop.X, without suffering loss
in share value?
Answer: $12,500,000 = $1,000,000 / 0.08
= InitCF/ (OCC- g) = $1,000,000 / (8.5% - 0.5%).
Note:
• Prop.X value for REIT is not equal to: $1,000,000 / (11% - 0.5%) =
$9,524,000.
• OCC relevant for valuing Prop.X purchase for REIT is not 11% (REIT A’s firm
level WACC).
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74
Example (cont.)...
Property X is a Boston Office Bldg, in a market where such bldgs sell at
8% cap rates (CF / V), with 0.5% expected LR annual growth (in V &
CF). It has initial CF = $1,000,000/yr.
How much can REIT B afford to pay for Prop.X, without suffering loss
in share value?
Answer (same): $12,500,000 = $1,000,000 / 0.08
= InitCF/ (OCC- g) = $1,000,000 / (8.5% - 0.5%).
Note:
• Prop.X value for REIT is not equal to: $1,000,000 / (10% - 0.5%) =
$10,526,000.
• OCC relevant for valuing Prop.X purchase for REIT is not 10% (REIT B’s
firm level WACC).
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75
Appendix 23: Agency Costs & Conflicts of Interest
Some major issues to watch out for…
1) Transaction bias in UPREITs:
Due to tax-based conflict (different cost basis for LP investors vs public stock
investors)?
2) Real estate interests outside the REIT:
Do REIT managers have other real estate interests that compete with the
REIT’s properties or for the managers’ time & energy (other properties not in
the REIT, other interests such as brokerage or management firms)?
3) Potential for “self-dealing”:
Do REIT managers have incentives to have the REIT engage in “Sweatheart”
deals with brokerage, management, development firms in which they have
interests?
4) Take-over difficulties re “5-or-Fewer Rule”:
 REIT governance often makes hostile takeovers particularly difficult, in part
due to 5-or-Fewer Rule.
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76
The
“UPREIT”
Public Investors
(Stockholders)
Private Investors
(Partnership Unit-holders)
Structure
REIT
Umbrella Partnership
(“Operating Partnership”: OP)
Property
Partnership
Property
Property
Partnership
Property
Partnership
Property
Property
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